핵심요약

• 석유 생산 및 무역 패턴은 2027년 초까지 이전 상태로 회복될 것으로 전망됩니다.
• 글로벌 석유 공급은 올해 4.3백만 배럴(4%) 감소할 것으로 예측됩니다.
• 국제 유가는 글로벌 유동성이 정상화되고 재고가 보충될 때까지 높은 수준을 유지할 것으로 예측됩니다.
• 중동 분쟁 당시 공급 불안정을 완화하기 위해 4억 배럴의 석유가 비상으로 방출되었습니다.

도입

본 기사는 미-이란 전쟁과 같은 지정학적 충돌이 글로벌 석유 시장에 미치는 장기적인 영향과, 이러한 유가 충격이 세계 경제와 인도에 미치는 생존 가능성을 분석합니다. 투자자들은 단기적인 가격 변동성뿐만 아니라, 향후 3년 이상의 장기적인 공급망 안정화 추세와 각국의 에너지 안보 전략 변화를 주목해야 합니다. 이는 단순한 시장 예측을 넘어, 지정학적 리스크가 실물 경제에 미치는 구조적인 영향을 이해하는 데 필수적입니다.

본문 1: 공급 회복 시점과 시장 전망

미-이란 분쟁으로 인한 유가 충격이 단기적으로는 제한적인 가격 상승을 보였으나, 국제 유가 시장은 중동 분쟁이 장기화될 가능성을 시사하며 높은 수준을 유지할 것으로 전망됩니다. 미국 에너지 정보국(EIA)은 석유 생산 및 무역 패턴이 분쟁 이전 상태로 돌아가는 데까지는 2027년 초까지 걸릴 것으로 추정합니다. 이는 단기적인 공급 충격이 심각하더라도 글로벌 공급망이 어느 정도의 탄력성을 가지고 있음을 보여줍니다. IEA는 해상에서의 교착 상태로 인해 호르무즈 해협의 흐름이 지속되는 한 유가 수준이 높게 유지될 것이라고 분석합니다. 즉, 시장은 당장의 공급 충격보다는 장기적인 흐름의 정상화에 초점을 맞추고 있습니다.

본문 2: 공급 안정화 메커니즘과 완화 조치

현재의 유가 안정은 일시적인 시장 반응뿐만 아니라, 국제 사회의 다각적인 공급 안정화 노력이 결합된 결과입니다. 이러한 불안정 상황 속에서 국제에너지기구(IEA)는 3월에 회원국 비축유에서 4억 배럴을 비상으로 방출하는 대규모 조치를 취했습니다. 또한, 미국은 전략비축유(SPR)에서 물량을 감축했으며, 중국 역시 석유 수입 수요를 줄이고 전략 비축유를 활용하는 방식으로 시장에 개입했습니다. 이러한 조치들은 공급 부족을 일시적으로 완화하는 데 기여했지만, 근본적인 공급 제약이 해소되기 전까지는 유가 상승 압력을 완전히 해소하지는 못했습니다. 이는 공급망의 취약성이 여전히 존재하며, 지정학적 리스크가 경제 시스템에 미치는 영향을 관리하는 것이 중요함을 시사합니다.

본문 3: 인도 경제에 대한 장기적 영향과 위험

글로벌 공급이 2027년까지 정상화된다는 전망은 인도와 같은 신흥 경제국에게 장기적인 에너지 안보 전략을 수립할 기회를 제공합니다. 인도 경제는 에너지 수입 의존도가 높기 때문에, 장기적인 유가 안정화는 인플레이션 압력을 완화하고 경제 성장에 긍정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 그러나 공급망이 완전히 정상화되기 전까지의 불확실성은 여전히 존재합니다. 인도는 에너지 수입 경로의 다변화와 자체적인 비축 전략을 강화함으로써, 단기적인 충격에 대한 취약성을 줄이고 장기적인 경제 안정성을 확보해야 하는 과제를 안고 있습니다. 특히, 석유 가격의 변동성이 장기화될 경우, 인도의 무역 수지 및 국내 인플레이션에 미치는 파급 효과를 면밀히 분석해야 합니다.

결론

결론적으로, 미-이란 전쟁으로 인한 유가 충격은 단기적으로는 시장에 영향을 미쳤으나, 국제 사회의 비축유 방출과 각국의 전략적 대응으로 인해 시장이 큰 폭의 충격을 흡수했습니다. 그러나 공급망의 완전한 회복은 2027년까지 걸릴 것으로 예상되므로, 글로벌 경제와 인도는 장기적인 에너지 안보와 공급 안정화에 대한 지속적인 모니터링이 필요합니다. 향후 몇 년간 지정학적 리스크와 공급망 변동성이 유가와 인플레이션에 미치는 영향을 면밀히 예측하는 것이 중요합니다.

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How long can the world & India absorb the US-Iran war oil shock? - timesofindia.indiatimes.com

The US-Iran war may have led the world to see one of the biggest oil supply disruptions in history but crude prices have largely seen a limited spike. But, for how long? The Middle East conflict is showing no signs of ending - the global oil market may have survived the first few months of the war relatively unscathed, but what if the war doesn’t end for another six months? For how long can the global economy, and India, survive an oil shock that may be snowballing slowly to possibly hit hard?In its August outlook on oil, US Energy Information Administration estimates that it will take until early 2027 for oil production and trade patterns to generally return to pre-conflict status.Not only that, EIA also believes that oil prices will continue to stay high for some time. “…because of the large drawdown in global inventories triggered by continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, we forecast that oil prices will remain elevated until global oil flows return to normal and oil inventories are replenished,” it says.In fact, the IEA says that global oil supply will fall by 4.3 million barrels per day, ‌or around 4%, this year.How will the world, and India be able to handle a prolonged oil crisis? We decode:What’s prevented an oil crisis till now?Let’s first understand what has helped the oil supply thus far:As the Middle East conflict unfolded and traffic through Strait of Hormuz came to a standstill, the International Energy Agency (IEA) responded by announcing the emergency release of 400 million barrels of oil from member countries’ reserves in March. This was the largest ever coordinated release of oil stocks.IEA also said that more supply would be released, in case the situation worsens. The US has also been drawing down from its Strategic Petroleum Reserves, which according to a Reuters report is now at the lowest since January 1983.China’s move to reduce its demand for oil imports and use up its strategic reserves has been a big factor in controlling the demand-supply gap from widening. It is estimated that while the supply loss from the Gulf is at around 11 million barrels per day, the gap compared to the demand is just around 5 million barrels per day.By some estimates, the current global crude oil inventory should be able to cover several months. But, the calculation could be tricky since one cannot assume that the entire inventory would be available for release.Also Read | Beijing’s billion-barrel weapon: Why India must prepare for China-driven oil pricesSlippery road ahead: How long can the world take the hit?According to a Reuters analysis, global oil stocks are under pressure, and the scale of disruption is particularly difficult to determine since the length of the conflict is unknown. Hence, it is not easy to gauge whether the current supply of reserves will be sufficient to prevent a bigger crisis from unfolding.Saudi Aramco has estimated that the world has lost as many as 2.6 billion barrels of oil since the conflict started. This is the largest cumulative disruption that the world economy has seen apart from the 1979 Iranian revolution. This means around 25 days of pre-war global consumption has been hit.According to a Reuters report, the total government and commercial stocks with IEA are theoretically sufficient to cover the current 5 million barrels per day supply gap for around 300 days. But, only some part of the stock is readily releasable, reducing the gap covering capacity to around 180 days.OPEC estimates global oil stocks at roughly 8 billion barrels, including commercial inventories, strategic reserves, and oil in transit.Praveen Rai, Director, Grant Thornton Bharat explains that each IEA member country that is a net oil importer must maintain oil stocks equivalent to at least 90 days of the previous year's net oil imports.The US has about 700 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves. Confirmed US inventories stand at about 350 million barrels currently, after falling by roughly 100 million barrels since March. China holds roughly 1–1.4 billion barrels of crude oil inventory and India around 100 million barrels.“Overall, global oil inventories remain substantial, but only a portion is readily available to offset a major supply disruption. However, much of oil stocks is operational inventory required to keep refineries and supply chains functioning,” Praveen Rai tells TOI.Pankaj Srivastava, Senior Vice President, Commodity Markets - Oil at Rystad Energy explains that in practice, crude inventories are unevenly distributed geographically, and a significant portion is held as strategic or operational stocks.“Countries are unlikely to release large volumes of their own inventories for export if doing so would compromise their domestic energy security. Even where inventories are technically available, logistical constraints, crude-quality requirements, refinery configuration and regional supply preferences limit their effective usability,” he tells TOI.But supply constraints may ease as additional production becomes available from the UAE, US, Guyana, Brazil and potentially Venezuela.“Any increase in supply from these producers would reduce the rate of inventory drawdown and extend the period over which the market can absorb the current supply disruption,” Srivastava says.Also Read | 100% tariffs: Why India may ignore Trump threat and continue buying Russian crude oilAnother important point to understand is that the definition of ‘operable’ or minimum usable inventory varies significantly by country and region.“Countries such as China and the US, with substantial strategic and commercial storage capacity, can draw down inventories to relatively low levels while maintaining refinery operations. In contrast, countries with only 2-4 weeks of crude inventory coverage are significantly more exposed to supply disruptions and market volatility,” says Pankaj Srivastava.So the impact can be uneven, depending on the ability to replenish stocks.The math is further complicated by the fact that a big portion of the spare production capacity in the world sits in the Gulf. Non-OPEC producers like the US, Brazil, Canada and Guyana can gradually increase output, but any large production response tends to take months.“So, spare capacity can reduce the severity of a supply shock, but it is unlikely to completely neutralize the impact of a prolonged and large-scale loss of Gulf supplies,” says Praveen Rai.According to Naveen Das, Senior Crude Oil Analyst at Kpler, the stocks are less of a problem, the bigger issue is the logistics.“Storage volume isn't the problem. Global stocks have barely moved despite a sustained deficit, so there's no tank-space crisis. The real bottleneck is logistics: getting crude out of the Gulf via limited bypass pipeline capacity, and the rerouting and queuing showing up in floating storage. Government caution about releasing strategic reserves is a secondary constraint. Refining capacity matters at the margins but isn't the global chokepoint,” he tells TOI.Globally, inventories appear more comfortable when commercial stocks, oil at sea, the US SPR and China's reserves are included, but not all of these represent immediately usable supply.One factor that needs to be understood is this: the scope of further release in emergency stocks is narrowing since many countries have depleted their stocks.China emerges a major playerChina is seen to be a notable exception, even though it doesn't disclose its reserves: Among higher estimates of 1.7 billion barrels, China could actually cover its pre-war Hormuz imports of around 5.5 million bpd for almost a year. This puts it among the better-positioned major economies alongside Japan.“China has reduced its crude imports by around 30–35% since the US–Iran war, which has helped prevent the global crude market from becoming excessively tight. The resulting demand moderation in China has provided an additional balancing mechanism, partially offsetting the supply disruption from the Gulf,” Pankaj Srivastava tells TOI."If the Gulf crisis persists, China is likely to continue playing a stabilizing role in the global crude market, particularly through a combination of lower imports, refinery run adjustments and utilization of its domestic crude inventories,” he says.But as experts note, China's pattern is to buy aggressively when prices are soft, not to release reserves for the world's benefit.“If pushed, a plausible six-month release might be 1-2 million barrels, or roughly 180-360 million barrels total. This would be enough to ease China's own import needs and indirectly free up barrels for others, but not a deliberate act of global market support,” says Kpler’s Naveen Das.China is not part of the IEA's coordinated stock-release mechanism and traditionally treats inventories as a strategic national asset.“China is more likely to use its reserves primarily to stabilize domestic demand rather than support global markets. If disruptions persisted for six months, China could release a meaningful portion of its stocks, potentially several hundred million barrels over time, but policymakers would be cautious about drawing inventories down too aggressively given uncertainties around future energy security,” says Praveen Rai of Grant Thornton Bharat.“Therefore, China's reserves can provide an important stabilizing influence, but they should be viewed as a partial buffer rather than a solution capable of fully offsetting a major and sustained supply shock,” he cautions.What it could mean for IndiaExperts believe India’s comprehensive diversification strategy will protect it from oil supply shocks.Naveen Das of Kpler points out that even though India imports nearly all its crude, it has adapted well. “Russian barrels now consistently make up 60-75% of what's on the water heading its way, alongside Brazilian, US, and West African supply. That diversification means India isn't as exposed to a prolonged war as a Gulf-heavy importer would be. The volumetric supply security looks manageable,” he tells TOI.But the shock would not be of supply alone, and this is where India’s exposure is important. If global crude oil supplies continue to narrow, India would have a limited pool to buy from, increasing the price of crude.(function(){function e(){window.addEventListener(message,function(e){if(e.data[datawrapper-height]!==void 0){var t=document.querySelectorAll(iframe);for(var n in e.data[datawrapper-height])for(var r=0,i;i=t[r];r++)if(i.contentWindow===e.source){var a=e.data[datawrapper-height][n]+px;i.style.height=a}}})}e()})();Also, China which has till now used up some of its strategic reserves, could also compete for the same oil. Higher crude oil prices would have a direct impact on India’s oil import bill, which had also become a cause of worry at the start of the US-Iran conflict.Also read: Crude prices cross $90 as ceasefire hopes dim, Hormuz disruption weighs on supplyAlternative barrels generally come with higher freight, premiums and/or less favorable pricing.“The real costs are higher freight from longer voyages, refinery adjustments to run non-Gulf crude, and price: India still pays global benchmark prices, so a persistent global deficit means continued high and volatile costs even as its physical supply holds up,” Naveen Das explains.Additionally, even as Russian crude supplies to India have hit a record high in recent months, India faces the prospect of a new sanctions bill being passed in the US which would empower the Trump administration to impose up to 100% tariffs on big importers of Moscow’s oil“India’s reliance on Russian crude could face some pressure from the proposed 100% US tariff, particularly for refiners with significant exposure to Western markets. However, historical experience suggests that energy security is likely to take precedence over trade considerations, especially during periods of supply disruption,” says Pankaj Srivastava of Rystad Energy“India is therefore likely to continue optimizing its crude basket based on availability, economics, refinery compatibility and geopolitical constraints, rather than moving away from Russian barrels solely because of tariff pressure,” he concludes.Get the latest Business News and Live updates. Download the TOI app.

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