중동, 물 부족 위기 심화…바레인 90% 수돗물 공급 시설 공격당해
Water, not oil, is the Middle East’s most precious commodity - Brookings
중동의 수자원 위기가 악화되고 있지만, 현재 시장에 즉각적인 영향을 미칠 만한 요인이 명확하지 않아 중립적인 입장을 취하는 것이 적합합니다.
핵심 요약
바레인의 90% 식수 공급 시설이 공격당하며 중동의 물 부족 문제가 더욱 심화되고 있습니다.
핵심요약
- 바레인의 90% 식수 공급이 증류설비에 의존함
- 이란의 약 75개의 증류설비가 공격에 취약함
- 증류는 에너지 집약적 과정으로 대체재가 부족함
- 갈등으로 인한 에너지 비용 증가 전망
도입
현재 진행 중인 중동 갈등은 에너지 가격 상승 외에도 중동의 장기적인 물 부족 문제를 악화시키고 있습니다. 물 부족 문제는 중동 국가들의 경제 안정성과 사회 안정성에 직접적인 영향을 미칠 수 있으므로 투자자들에게 중요한 주제입니다.
본문 1: 증류설비의 취약성
바레인의 식수 공급의 90%가 증류설비에 의존하고 있는 점에서, 이 설비의 피해는 중동 국가들의 물 공급에 큰 타격을 줄 수 있습니다. 특히, 이란의 약 75개의 증류설비가 공격에 취약하다는 점에서, 중동 국가들의 물 공급 시스템은 지리적으로나 기술적으로 취약한 상태입니다. 이는 중동 국가들이 물 공급에 대한 안보 리스크를 고려해야 함을 의미합니다.
본문 2: 에너지 비용의 증가
증류는 에너지 집약적 과정으로, 대체재가 거의 없습니다. 따라서, 갈등으로 인한 에너지 비용의 증가는 중동 국가들의 물 공급 비용을 크게 증가시킬 전망입니다. 이는 중동 국가들의 경제 부담으로 이어질 수 있으며, 장기적으로는 물 공급 시스템의 안정성에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.
본문 3: 장기적인 물 공급 문제
중동의 물 부족 문제는 갈등뿐만 아니라 기후 변화, 지하수 고갈, 비지속 가능한 관리 관행 등으로 인해 악화되고 있습니다. 이러한 문제는 중동 국가들이 물 공급 시스템의 안정성을 유지하기 위해 장기적인 전략이 필요함을 의미합니다. 또한, 물 공급 시스템의 안정성은 중동 국가들의 경제 성장과 사회 안정성에 직접적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.
결론
중동의 물 부족 문제는 갈등, 에너지 비용 증가, 장기적인 물 공급 문제 등 다양한 요인에 의해 복잡하게 얽혀 있습니다. 이러한 문제들은 중동 국가들의 경제 안정성과 사회 안정성에 직접적인 영향을 미칠 수 있으므로, 투자자들은 중동 국가들의 물 공급 시스템의 안정성을 주시해야 합니다. 또한, 중동 국가들이 물 공급 시스템의 안정성을 유지하기 위해 장기적인 전략을 수립할 필요성이 있습니다.
Original Article
Water, not oil, is the Middle East’s most precious commodity - Brookings
For most of the world, the biggest impact of the ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf region has been increased energy prices. For the Middle East itself, however, the most enduring impact may involve worsening the region’s long-standing water crisis. The current conflict has highlighted vulnerabilities in the region’s water infrastructure at a time when climate change, groundwater depletion, and unsustainable management practices are worsening water insecurity.
The Middle East’s water woes were thrown into sharp relief in the early stages of the current conflict, when a suspected Iranian drone damaged a desalination plant in Bahrain, which supplies the island nation with over 90% of its drinking water . The strike followed what Iran claimed was a U.S. or Israeli attack on one of its own desalination plants, and was echoed in President Donald Trump’s threat to bomb each of Iran’s approximately 75 desalination facilities .
These threats, though so far hollow, reflect a real vulnerability: the Persian Gulf is the most desalination-dependent region in the world. Given that many Gulf countries and cities have only one or two utility-scale desalination plants, taking one offline, even temporarily, could effectively cut off access to drinking water for an extended duration. The vulnerability of Gulf desalination facilities is, moreover, not limited to missile and drone strikes: the U.S. government recently highlighted growing risks to water infrastructure from Iran-linked cyberattacks. Even in the absence of attacks, the conflict will harm the region’s water sector: desalination is an extremely energy-hungry process to which there is little realistic alternative for most Gulf countries, meaning that the countries that depend on them will have to absorb sharply increased energy costs to produce drinking water.
Yet the vulnerability of Persian Gulf water infrastructure to attack is only part of the problem. Even in times of peace, virtually the entire Middle East region is imperiled by growing water scarcity and variability. Already one of the driest areas of the world, climate change is increasing average temperatures and making rainfall and inflows into the region’s major rivers more unpredictable. Governments’ unsustainable water management policies, such as encouraging high rates of groundwater use to expand irrigated farmland, further compound the challenge.
The region’s water supply crunch is so severe that the World Bank estimates that water scarcity intensified by climate change will cost the Middle East 6%-14% of its GDP by 2050. Though some countries have attempted to address these issues by encouraging more sustainable water use through raising water prices and adopting more stringent regulations, the damage has largely been done: once depleted, underground aquifers recharge very slowly, given the region’s sparse rainfall. Measures to reduce water use through raising water prices often face sharp political opposition. Moreover, large parts of the Middle East, including Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria, lack the functioning institutions or financial resources to tackle their water supply crisis.
Water scarcity and vulnerability present a special challenge for Iran. Even before the current conflict began, Iran’s major cities were facing the prospect of severe disruption to piped water supplies , with reservoirs running close to empty. The drought is so severe that Iran’s president said last year the country may have to move its capital away from Tehran to a more water-secure area.
Apart from climate change, which produces increasingly severe droughts, affecting the region as a whole, the sources of Iran’s water crisis are deeply rooted in unsustainable water management practices. These challenges include the over-construction of dams, which have disrupted the flow of surface water, and groundwater mining, which takes water out of subsurface aquifers far more quickly than it can be replenished. These practices were adopted in part to enable Iran to maintain self-sufficiency in food production in the face of sanctions imposed by the United States and other countries. Now, though, these practices are compounding the misery of Iran’s rural communities—and likely playing a part in stoking discontent with the regime.
The severity of the water crisis afflicting both Iran and its neighbors also presents an opportunity to rebuild a more sustainable future for the Middle East once the current conflict ends. The fact that so many Middle Eastern countries face similar water-related challenges, including groundwater mining, high dependence on vulnerable desalination plants, and increasingly variable precipitation, makes sustainable water management an urgent, if difficult, focus for regional cooperation.
This is not an entirely new idea. The Gulf Cooperation Council, one of the region’s principal international bodies, has spotlighted cooperation on water in the past. But regional organizations could do much more, such as jointly funding research on lower-cost, less-energy-intensive desalination technologies, genetically modified crops that are more resistant to water scarcity, and reinvigorating efforts to conclude international agreements on shared waterways and aquifers. The highest priority should be to conclude new agreements to manage groundwater withdrawals from transboundary aquifers, such as the Neogene Aquifer System shared between Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait, and which are often over-exploited.
Countries outside the region, including the United States, can also play a role in making water a focus for post-conflict reconstruction and peacebuilding. The United States, for example, could resurrect previous efforts to focus its development assistance on water security, as captured in the currently moribund U.S. Global Water Strategy . It is worth noting that China, too, has much to offer efforts to bolster water security and is an increasingly important economic and trading partner across the Middle East. Domestically, Beijing has embarked upon ambitious water policy reforms and investments in water-saving agriculture that present important lessons for other developing countries. Of course, the United States and other countries may not be eager to see China play a greater role in the Middle East in general and its water sector in particular. But at the same time, it is hard to see the Middle East meeting its water-related challenges on its own.
Without concerted action, either by countries in the region or beyond, water will continue to present major risks to peace and prosperity in the Middle East long after the current conflict ends. Indeed, the challenge of achieving water as well as energy security will do much to shape the region’s future.
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