핵심요약

• 필리핀 페소는 USD에 대해 P63:$1까지 약화될 전망
• 2026년 4월 총 국제 준비금 $73.8억, 2025년 말 대비 $8.0억 감소
• 2026년 4월 상품 무역 적자 $6억, 2022년 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 당시 수준과 비교됨
• ANZ는 2027년 말까지 P61.5:$1, 2028년까지 P60.5:$1로 페소 회복 전망

도입

이번 분석은 필리핀 페소의 지속적인 약세와 그 배경에 대한 심층적인 이해를 제공합니다. 기름가격 하락에도 불구하고 페소가 USD에 대해 약세인 이유는 무엇이며, 이는 투자자에게 어떤 시사점을 줄까요?

본문 1: 기름가격 하락이 페소에 미치는 영향

ANZ Research는 기름가격 하락이 필리핀 페소에 큰 영향을 미치지 못하고 있다고 지적했습니다. 2026년 6월 기름가격이 하락했지만, 페소는 여전히 USD에 대해 약세를 보이고 있습니다. 이는 기름가격 하락이 일시적인 충격보다 지속적인 외部 불균형에 의해 주도되고 있음을 시사합니다. 이는 투자자에게 필리핀 경제의 구조적 문제점을 고려할 필요성을 강조합니다.

본문 2: 무역 적자와 국제 준비금의 동향

필리핀의 외부 위치가 더욱 악화되고 있으며, 상품 무역 적자는 2026년 4월에 $6억으로 확대되었습니다. 이는 2022년 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 당시 수준과 비교될 만한 수치입니다. 또한, 총 국제 준비금도 2025년 말 $81.8억에서 2026년 4월 $73.8억으로 감소했습니다. 이는 필리핀 경제의 취약성을 강조하며, 투자자에게는 신중한 접근이 필요함을 시사합니다.

본문 3: 향후 전망과 투자 시사점

ANZ는 필리핀 페소가 2027년 말까지 P61.5:$1, 2028년까지 P60.5:$1로 회복될 것으로 전망하고 있습니다. 이는 기름가격 하락이 무역 적자를 크게 좁히지 않을 것으로 예상되기 때문입니다. 많은 경제가 2026년 3월 이후 축적된 기름 재고를 보충할 것으로 예상되며, 이는 기름가격이 크게 하락하지 않을 것이라는 점을 시사합니다. 따라서 투자자는 필리핀 경제의 장기적인 구조적 문제점을 고려해야 합니다.

결론

필리핀 페소의 지속적인 약세는 기름가격 하락보다는 지속적인 외부 불균형에 의해 주도되고 있습니다. ANZ의 전망에 따르면, 페소는 2027년 말까지 P61.5:$1, 2028년까지 P60.5:$1로 회복될 것으로 예상됩니다. 그러나 투자자는 필리핀 경제의 구조적 문제점을 고려하여 신중한 접근이 필요합니다.

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원문 링크: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxNZ0pQZ2dhZlRiU1pEY2Z5dFVDOVNxX3g4TnhXUldja2JOdjRaSXJpaWx2YThyTWRFN1FlSHljRUdqSUs4U3B5VmxLaDVOUmlzZ0lnbVdNUnliMmxBMEZMZEY5THFRQXlCMVk0LWxaRzc2WXpMbEFSN0gzLTk1eXJiY05iSTBjUkN0bXVZUl9OTEdqMFJPOG9ZNzdBbmg2a2dPNDBITGhxc3c5ZTdsQm9QYWNlbW_SAboBQVVfeXFMTjZDbzhRcHhDNUt1RW54b1g4bWswUVBGQWJqLVZya0ducEcxS3FScVB6UlpOV3hJMDRzdHFjQ1BwcmR2X1JDVTUxaUdHWTRSMHBYbktSTmg1WmR5VWVjaHBfblp2YThSLVZzMHZMR1kxZmRmQzdLVHhveGRGclV0bHhNVjlaNS1Wc0RpX0NaMF92eDBGNVNTSVRTcDlVZE1BYVI3ejZQTVhOcl9uekxpSGYxLWtibmx0eXJR?oc=5

Oil price relief fails to lift peso vs dollar - The Manila Times

A DECLINE in global oil prices has done little to ease pressure on the peso as weaknesses in the country's external accounts continue to weigh on the currency, ANZ Research said.'The Middle East conflict may be reaching closure and oil prices fell in June, but this has not provided much relief to the PHP which is nearing all-time low against the USD,' ANZ said in its latest Asia Macro Weekly report.The bank said the peso's continued weakness suggested that it was now being driven less by temporary oil price shocks and more by persistent external imbalances, including a widening trade deficit, slowing investment inflows and a stronger dollar.ANZ expects the peso to weaken to P63:$1 before gradually recovering to P61.5 by end-2027 and P60.5 by 2028.The peso has mostly traded above the P61:$1 level since April and remains under sustained pressure as deteriorating terms of trade and lingering concerns over domestic economic growth continue to weigh on investor sentiment.While the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has intervened to curb excessive volatility, ANZ noted that these contributed to a decline in the country's gross international reserves, which fell to $73.8 billion in April from $81.8 billion at the end of 2025.It said the Philippines' external position had deteriorated further as the merchandise trade deficit widened to $6 billion in April, comparable to levels seen during the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022.Despite expectations that tensions between the United States and Iran could eventually normalize global oil supply, ANZ said lower oil prices were unlikely to significantly narrow the trade gap in the near term.“Many economies are expected to replenish oil inventories that have been drawn down since March 2026,” it said.“This means oil prices are unlikely to fall sharply from here. Hence, we expect the trade deficit to remain elevated in the coming months,” it added.While external trade remains the biggest drag, ANZ said the Philippines continued to benefit from resilient structural sources of foreign exchange.The business process outsourcing (BPO) industry has become an increasingly important contributor to the economy and receipts are now broadly comparable with remittances from overseas Filipino workers.ANZ said a resilient US labor market and easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East should help keep remittance inflows steady during the second half of the year.However, the bank said these inflows were no longer sufficient to fully offset the goods trade deficit.'We expect remittance inflows to remain steady in the second half of the year,” ANZ said.“Together with resilient BPO revenues, these structural inflows should partially offset the widening trade deficit, although it would not be sufficient to fully counterbalance the underlying external pressures on the currency.”ANZ also sees additional downside risks to the peso as markets increasingly price in the possibility of further US Federal Reserve rate hikes, which have strengthened the dollar and triggered capital outflows from emerging markets.“Financial markets are now pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate hike, leading to a stronger USD and pressure on the PHP,” ANZ said.“Though the BSP has already hiked rates, it was not sufficient to turn around the PHP’s fortunes.”It said that “further rate hikes will be needed given the challenging inflation outlook, which will slow growth. We see further downside risk to the PHP.”The BSP has raised interest rates twice this year and has indicated that more could follow given inflation risks. NIÑA MYKA PAULINE ARCEO

Source: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxNZ0pQZ2dhZlRiU1pEY2Z5dFVDOVNxX3g4TnhXUldja2JOdjRaSXJpaWx2YThyTWRFN1FlSHljRUdqSUs4U3B5VmxLaDVOUmlzZ0lnbVdNUnliMmxBMEZMZEY5THFRQXlCMVk0LWxaRzc2WXpMbEFSN0gzLTk1eXJiY05iSTBjUkN0bXVZUl9OTEdqMFJPOG9ZNzdBbmg2a2dPNDBITGhxc3c5ZTdsQm9QYWNlbW_SAboBQVVfeXFMTjZDbzhRcHhDNUt1RW54b1g4bWswUVBGQWJqLVZya0ducEcxS3FScVB6UlpOV3hJMDRzdHFjQ1BwcmR2X1JDVTUxaUdHWTRSMHBYbktSTmg1WmR5VWVjaHBfblp2YThSLVZzMHZMR1kxZmRmQzdLVHhveGRGclV0bHhNVjlaNS1Wc0RpX0NaMF92eDBGNVNTSVRTcDlVZE1BYVI3ejZQTVhOcl9uekxpSGYxLWtibmx0eXJR?oc=5