핵심요약

• 이란 최고 안보 책임자는 새로운 미국 경제 조치에 대한 지지가 "전쟁 행위"가 될 수 있다고 경고했습니다.
• 이란 대통령은 협상 정체를 극복하기 위한 양해각서(MOU)가 분쟁을 해결하는 최선의 방법이라고 방어했습니다.
• 이란 측은 페르시아만 항로 외의 다른 석유 운송 경로를 목표로 보복할 수 있음을 시사했습니다.
• 이란의 새로운 권위체는 향후 통행에 제한을 둘 것으로 명시했습니다.

도입

본 기사는 미국과 이란 간의 경제 전쟁 및 중동 지역의 지정학적 긴장 고조 상황을 다루고 있습니다. 이는 단순히 양국 간의 외교적 갈등을 넘어, 글로벌 에너지 시장의 안정성과 해상 무역로의 안전성에 직접적인 영향을 미치는 중대한 사안입니다. 투자자들은 이러한 지정학적 리스크가 어떻게 에너지 가격과 글로벌 공급망에 반영될지 면밀히 주시해야 합니다.

본문 1: 경제 전쟁의 지정학적 함의

미국이 "전례 없는" 수준의 경제 전쟁과 고립을 위협하는 상황에서, 이란이 보복 가능성을 언급한 것은 단순한 외교적 수사를 넘어 실제적인 군사적 대립의 가능성을 내포합니다. 최고 안보 책임자가 페르시아만 항로 외의 다른 석유 운송 경로를 목표로 보복할 수 있다고 경고한 것은, 해상 무역로의 통제권이 에너지 공급에 미치는 영향을 극명하게 보여줍니다. 이는 해상 운송로의 안정성이 글로벌 경제에 얼마나 중요한지를 재확인시켜 줍니다. 경제 제재가 물리적 충돌로 이어질 수 있다는 위협은 에너지 공급망의 취약성을 증대시키며, 이는 국제 유가 변동성과 같은 금융 시장의 변동성을 키우는 주요 요인이 됩니다.

본문 2: 외교적 노력과 현장 상황의 괴리

한편, 이란 대통령이 양국 간의 협상을 위한 양해각서(MOU)를 최선의 해결책으로 제시한 것은 외교적 해법을 모색하려는 노력을 보여줍니다. 그러나 이러한 외교적 노력에도 불구하고, 이란의 새로운 권위체는 이미 선언한 대로 특정 선박에 대한 통행 제한을 통해 실질적인 통제력을 행사하고 있습니다. 이는 공식적인 협상 외에 비공식적인 방식으로 지역 내 영향력을 강화하려는 전략적 움직임으로 해석됩니다. 또한, 파키스탄 군 최고 사령관이 중재자 역할을 위해 이란을 방문할 예정이라는 점은 지역 강대국들이 이 갈등을 관리하기 위해 개입하려는 노력이 진행 중임을 시사합니다. 이러한 현장 상황은 공식적인 선언과 실제 행동 간의 괴리를 보여주며, 갈등이 고착화될 위험성을 동시에 보여줍니다.

본문 3: 장기적 전망과 시장 시사점

장기적인 관점에서 볼 때, 이란과 미국의 대립 구도는 에너지 시장의 구조적 변화를 예고합니다. 만약 경제 전쟁이 지속되어 주요 해상 통로의 불안정성이 심화된다면, 에너지 자원의 가격은 지정학적 위험 프리미엄을 반영하여 구조적으로 상승 압력을 받을 것입니다. 또한, 지역 내 새로운 권위체들의 등장은 국제법과 기존의 해상 질서에 대한 도전으로 작용하며, 이는 국제 무역의 예측 가능성을 저해하는 요인으로 작용합니다. 따라서 투자자들은 단기적인 정치적 수사뿐만 아니라, 해상 운송로의 물리적 안정성과 지역 내 협상 채널의 실효성을 종합적으로 평가하여 장기적인 포트폴리오 전략을 수립해야 할 것입니다. 현재의 상황은 외교적 해결과 실질적인 안전 보장이라는 두 가지 목표가 충돌하는 복잡한 지정학적 게임으로 읽힙니다.

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Iran official says support for new sanctions would be an 'act of war,' and other Middle East news - ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

The U.S. has vowed to impose an “unprecedented” level of economic warfare.

The new head of Iran's top security body warned Sunday that Tehran will see any country's support for new U.S. economic measures against the Islamic Republic as an “act of war,” while Iran's president defended a memorandum of understanding with the United States as the best way out of the stalled conflict .

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday is expected to announce the new measures after the U.S. vowed to impose an “unprecedented” level of economic warfare and isolation on a country that has lived for decades under sanctions . Also Monday, Pakistan’s army chief is expected to visit Iran as mediators try to revive talks.

Meanwhile, attacks calmed on the Strait of Hormuz but posturing did not, as a recently created Iranian authority listed dozens of vessels it said will face restrictions on future transits.

Here’s a look at the latest developments in the Iran war and the wider Middle East on Sunday. Full coverage can be found here .

The hard-line leader of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, issued his latest warning on X, with the comments quickly shared by Iranian state media.

It came a day after Rezaei's most extensive public comments since being named to the post this month.

“If (Trump) wants to do something, we will retaliate in a seismic manner,” he had told the state broadcaster in an interview that aired late Saturday. He said Iran would target other oil-shipping routes from the Persian Gulf — alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz.

Rezaei, a former Revolutionary Guard commander and military adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, was part of senior appointments widely seen as hardening Tehran’s political and military stance.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian earlier Sunday said the memorandum of understanding signed in mid-June was the best way to move beyond a situation of “neither war nor peace," adding that Tehran can’t attract investment nearly six months after the war began.

“There is not a single provision in this agreement that amounts to capitulation,” Pezeshkian said in a speech published by state-run IRNA. “The supreme leader sets the policies, and we will follow that path.”

The interim deal opened a 60-day period for talks aimed at ending the war and reaching an accord on Iran's nuclear program . That period ended last week with no signs of compromise or extension.

There were no confirmed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz over the past 48 hours, a multinational coalition overseen by the U.S. Navy said Sunday, with shipping traffic still at reduced levels. The U.S. military said its blockade of Iranian ports had redirected 70 commercial ships and disabled three as of Sunday.

Iran's recently created Persian Gulf Strait Authority, sanctioned by the U.S ., published a list of dozens of ships it said had violated arrangements for transiting the strait and would face future restrictions like fines or seizures. The strait had been considered an international waterway before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28.

Iran and Oman, on the strait's other side, are now discussing management of it, which likely will include ships paying fees.

Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir will lead a delegation to Tehran on Monday, Iranian state television reported, citing Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei.

Two regional officials said the visit was part of Islamabad’s efforts to de-escalate tensions between the United States and Iran and urge them to return to the negotiating table. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

The Iranian judiciary’s Mizan news agency reported the latest execution connected to nationwide protests early this year, saying Majid Adineh was arrested Jan. 9 in Mohammadshahr, west of Tehran.

The judiciary said forensic examinations indicated the handgun found on him had been fired on Jan. 8 and 9. Mizan said Adineh had joined the unrest following calls by groups opposed to Iran’s government and alleged that he had received training from groups outside the country. He was convicted under Iran’s law imposing harsher penalties for espionage and cooperation with hostile states.

Police arrested a 16-year-old boy from the Israeli settlement of Avigayil in the beating of a 61-year-old Palestinian, Saeed Muhammad Ibrahim Rabah, outside his home in the occupied West Bank, a year after he lost a leg after being shot by a settler.

Rabah told The Associated Press that the violence at his home in Khirbet al-Rakeez on Saturday was an effort to make families leave, but “we will remain, no matter what happens.”

Separately, the West Bank Health Ministry said a 14-year-old in the Askar refugee camp in Nablus was shot dead by Israeli forces, who did not immediately comment. The uncle of Islam Maher Ajouri, Nehad Ajouri, called the shooting indiscriminate.

And Israel's military said it detained a suspect in a stabbing attack that wounded a 24-year-old Israeli man in the area of al-Auja in the West Bank. Israel's emergency services said the man was in moderate condition.

Four-year-old Mohammed Taha died after an Israeli airstrike hit a central Gaza house on Sunday and wounded at least five others, according to the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital, which received the casualties.

Israel's military later said it struck and killed a Hamas commander in central Gaza. The hospital confirmed that the man named, Ismail Abu Ful, was killed.

Source: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiqAFBVV95cUxOeGs1eVJuZ1pjeHlEemt6UkZNYUZVYktOS3dUamlnaGpqV1BLMXVsLUZva251Um02RXpsd1lGOFJwNmVMeVo4a0I5a0ZVVmkyZ3hLTXZmUS12YW5EMkp0N2Q4dmswN2JYdWVFd0JuMzBWdDIzeVk2MWU1OGpLSTVMSVN2eUhtZEdMNUNNbGFkOHBnX1ZSY2x3Snc1aHZHWXV3TmJXUmRlVmPSAa4BQVVfeXFMTWVidE1QMzVKelBaUVRROW1LY3JGM0g4YTJ1YVNjWkg0YXJGNXlVZTA1VldpUXlZYlVxZ0R1dFpuby1fN3FCTHZvYU90cmNHRF9DMlJOelVHcWZKME9wT1NUd2pqQWFUSll1ZURHVUh6amVMS1hleG1iX1FydzRtUDlmY1NtLTk0NFg3aXZmSkphWXAtWVhmS2Q0NHJFMkhWSWlrbXJxZnlSOHphUC13?oc=5