2026년 말까지 스페이스X를 추월할 3조 달러 기업의 부상
Prediction: 3 Trillion-Dollar Stocks Set to Leapfrog SpaceX by the End of 2026
스페이스엑스의 내부자 매도, 부채 리스크, 그리고 악화된 영업 실적이 주가를 급락시킬 가능성이 큽니다.
핵심 요약
스페이스X는 750억 달러 IPO로 일시적으로 3조 달러 평가액을 기록했지만, 인사자 매도와 영업 결과 악화로 주가 하락이 예상됩니다.
핵심요약
- 스페이스X의 IPO는 750억 달러를 모금하며 사우디 아람코의 256억 달러 기록을 세 배로 뛰어넘었습니다.
- 일시적으로 3조 달러 평가액을 기록하며 마이크로소프트와 아마존을 넘어섰습니다.
- 인사자 매도, 잠재적인 부채 발행, 악화된 영업 결과가 주가 하락 위협이 되고 있습니다.
- 최근 14년간 30개 대형 테크 IPO 중 평균적으로 1년 내 하락이 발생했습니다.
도입
이 기사는 대형 IPO의 미래 전망과 투자자에게 미치는 영향을 이해하는 데 중요한 통찰을 제공합니다. 스페이스X의 급격한 부상과 이후의 하락 가능성은 테크 주식 시장의 동향을 분석하는 데 필수적입니다. 특히, 인사자 매도와 영업 결과의 악화와 같은 요소가 주가 변동성에 미치는 영향을 이해하는 것이 중요합니다.
본문 1: 스페이스X의 IPO 기록과 그 의미
스페이스X의 IPO는 750억 달러를 모금하며 사우디 아람코의 256억 달러 기록을 세 배로 뛰어넘었습니다. 이는 테크 산업의 성장과 투자자들의 관심도를 반영합니다. 그러나 이 기록적인 모금액이 장기적으로 주가 상승으로 이어질지 여부는 불확실합니다. 역사적으로 대형 IPO는 초기에는 높은 평가액을 기록하지만, 이후 주가 하락이 빈번하게 발생합니다. 이는 투자자들에게 스페이스X의 장기적인 성장을 신중하게 평가할 필요가 있음을 시사합니다.
본문 2: 주가 하락의 위협 요인
인사자 매도, 잠재적인 부채 발행, 악화된 영업 결과 등이 스페이스X의 주가 하락 위협이 되고 있습니다. 특히, 인사자 매도가 증가할 경우 주가 안정성에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 가능성이 있습니다. 또한, 부채 발행이나 추가 자금 조달이 필요한 경우, 이는 주주 가치를 희석시킬 수 있습니다. 악화된 영업 결과는 회사의 재무 건전성을 의심하게 만들며, 이는 투자자들의 신뢰를 떨어뜨릴 수 있습니다. 이러한 요인들은 스페이스X의 장기적인 성장 가능성에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.
본문 3: 테크 주식 시장의 동향과 전망
최근 14년간 30개 대형 테크 IPO 중 평균적으로 1년 내 하락이 발생했습니다. 이는 테크 주식 시장의 변동성이 높다는 것을 보여줍니다. 투자자들은 이러한 동향을 고려하여, 스페이스X와 같은 대형 IPO에 투자할 때 신중한 접근이 필요합니다. 특히, 인사자 매도와 영업 결과의 악화와 같은 요인을 고려하여, 장기적인 투자 전략을 수립하는 것이 중요합니다.
결론
스페이스X의 IPO는 기록적인 모금액을 달성했지만, 인사자 매도와 영업 결과의 악화 등이 주가 하락 위협이 되고 있습니다. 역사적인 데이터는 테크 주식 시장의 변동성이 높음을 보여주며, 투자자들은 이러한 동향을 고려하여 신중한 접근이 필요합니다. 향후 스페이스X의 주가 동향과 영업 결과에 대한 지속적인 모니터링이 중요합니다.
Original Article
Prediction: 3 Trillion-Dollar Stocks Set to Leapfrog SpaceX by the End of 2026
It's been a history-packed year for Wall Street -- and it's not even half over. Through June 18, we've witnessed the Dow Jones Industrial Average , S&P 500 , and Nasdaq Composite climb to new highs, the arrival of a new Fed chair, and the largest-ever initial public offering (IPO) burst onto the scene.
On June 12, Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) ( SPCX 3.55% ) officially unseated Saudi Aramco for the title of largest IPO cash raise in history. The $75 billion raised by Musk's artificial intelligence (AI) and space economy goliath nearly tripled the capital raised from Saudi Aramco's December 2019 IPO.
History hasn't been kind to mega-IPOs
In the days following SpaceX's debut, its shares skyrocketed to a nearly $3 trillion valuation. For a brief moment, SpaceX was worth more than established industry leaders Microsoft and Amazon . But these gains proved fleeting, as should much of the retail investor euphoria surrounding SpaceX.
While structural changes will allow SpaceX fast entry into several major stock indexes, and its low float is helping buoy its share price, these dynamics will be relatively short-lived. Once the company's staggered lockup schedule takes effect, we'll witness the greatest wealth transfer in Wall Street's storied history , from retail investors to SpaceX insiders.
Great look at the SpaceX shares unlock schedule as well as the potential passive buying schedule from @JSeyff @FrancisSharoon Depending on the early post-IPO returns, this could really play with and disperse the returns of "passive" funds (which is why there's arguably no such... pic.twitter.com/KOuEkJlngF
Over several months, insider selling, potentially dilutive debt and/or equity offerings , and the company's abysmal operating results all threaten to crater SpaceX's share price.
History hasn't been particularly kind to mega-IPOs over the last 14 years , either. According to research from Truist Financial , the average year-one drawdown for 30 of the largest tech IPOs of the last 14 years is a staggering 55%!
Long story short, SpaceX's $2 trillion-plus valuation is more mirage than foundation. Eventually, its share price is going to crater, allowing several other worthy trillion-dollar companies to leapfrog it in market cap. By the end of 2026, SpaceX should be looking up at the following three established trillion-dollar stocks.
- Meta Platforms: $1.47 trillion market cap
The first trillion-dollar club member that shouldn't have any trouble jumping past SpaceX's bloated valuation before the end of this year is social media titan Meta Platforms ( META +1.86% ) . Despite some concerns about Meta's aggressive capital expenditures tied to its AI infrastructure build-out, there are several reasons to believe its shares will head higher.
For starters, Meta's social media platforms have an unrivaled lure. Collectively, the company's family of apps, including Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Threads, and Facebook Messenger, attracted an average of 3.56 billion daily users in March 2026. With no other social platform close to attracting this many eyeballs, it's no surprise that Meta can command an ad pricing premium from businesses.
Mark Zuckerberg's company is also one of the few that has enjoyed immediate benefits from integrating AI solutions . Giving businesses access to generative AI solutions capable of tailoring static and video messages to users can improve ad click-through rates and enhance Meta's ad pricing power.
Unlike SpaceX, which is a long way from generating recurring profits, Meta can offer investors an intriguing value proposition. Meta ended the June 18 trading session at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of less than 16, representing a 23% discount to its average forward P/E over the trailing half-decade.
Warren Buffett retired as Berkshire Hathaway's CEO on Dec. 31, 2025. Image source: The Motley Fool.
- Berkshire Hathaway: $1.06 trillion market cap
Slow and steady wins the race. Although the conglomerate that now-retired billionaire Warren Buffett built into a trillion-dollar business is trailing SpaceX's market cap by nearly $1.4 trillion, Berkshire Hathaway ( BRKA 0.50% ) ( BRKB 0.37% ) has the potential to leapfrog Musk's SpaceX in the valuation column.
One unique trait that Berkshire Hathaway possesses is its treasure chest. For 14 consecutive quarters (ended March 31, 2026), Berkshire's bosses have been net sellers of stocks to the tune of approximately $195 billion . When coupled with the ongoing profits of Berkshire's operating segments, the company's cash pile, including U.S. Treasury bills, has ballooned to more than $397 billion. This capital provides a very safe floor beneath Berkshire's stock, and gives the company's new CEO, Greg Abel, unparalleled financial flexibility.
Berkshire Hathaway is now sitting on an all-time high $397 Billion in Cash, enough to buy 478 companies in the S&P 500 🚨🤑 pic.twitter.com/iZKu6hjtKQ
To build on the previous point, many of Berkshire Hathaway's operating segments are cyclical and predictable -- two traits Wall Street values highly. Since economic expansions last substantially longer than recessions, Buffett and Abel have angled their company's operating segments to capitalize on prolonged periods of growth.
A welcome return to share buybacks under Abel's leadership is another catalyst that can lift Berkshire's stock in 2026. Over the last eight years, Buffett and Abel have collectively spent $78 billon to repurchase their company's stock .
- Broadcom: $1.96 trillion market cap
Although it's the smallest reach of the three stocks, networking specialist Broadcom ( AVGO +4.87% ) has the tools and intangibles needed to surpass SpaceX's market cap before the year ends. Broadcom ended the June 18 trading session at a $480 billion market cap deficit to Musk's space and artificial intelligence giant.
The immediate lure for Broadcom is its integral role in the AI data center build-out. Its solutions are capable of connecting tens of thousands of graphics processing units (GPUs) to maximize GPU compute capabilities and minimize tail latency.
Additionally, Broadcom's application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) may become staples for select AI hyperscalers. While Nvidia remains the face of AI data center infrastructure, Broadcom's customized AI chips can support eyebrow-raising sales growth from hyperscalers for the foreseeable future.
The one worry for Broadcom is that game-changing innovations have a poor early track record . Every major innovation since the advent and proliferation of the internet in the mid-1990s has endured an early stage bubble-bursting event. Broadcom's saving grace is that it has numerous operating segments beyond AI, including wireless chips used in smartphones. If the AI bubble bursts, Broadcom can still handily outperform SpaceX.