핵심요약

• Palantir는 Rule of 40 점수 155를 기록했습니다.
• AppLovin은 트리플 자리 Rule of 40 점수를 기록했습니다.
• AppLovin의 선행 주가수익비율(P/E)은 19 미만입니다.
• AppLovin의 총 매출은 지난 분기에 전년 대비 53% 성장했습니다.

도입

본 기사는 소프트웨어 기업의 성장 지표와 밸류에이션의 관계를 비교하며 투자자들이 주목해야 할 새로운 성장주를 제시합니다. 특히, Palantir의 높은 성장성과 AppLovin의 매력적인 밸류에이션을 비교함으로써, 단순히 높은 성장률뿐만 아니라 기업 가치 평가의 중요성을 강조합니다.

본문 1: 성장 지표의 차이와 비즈니스 모델의 해석

Palantir는 Rule of 40 점수 155를 기록하며 높은 성장성과 마진을 동시에 입증했습니다. 이는 Palantir가 복잡한 소프트웨어 솔루션 제공을 통해 높은 수익성과 매출 성장을 동시에 달성하고 있음을 의미합니다. 반면, AppLovin은 광고 기술(Adtech) 분야에서 차별화된 비즈니스 모델을 가지고 있으며, 광고 전환 시에만 비용을 부과하는 구조를 채택하고 있습니다. 이러한 비즈니스 모델은 광고주에게 광고 배치 및 가격 책정에 대한 정보를 AppLovin의 블랙박스 모델에 의존하도록 요구합니다. 이는 시장의 복잡한 광고 생태계를 효율적으로 관리하고 수익을 창출하는 능력을 보여줍니다.

본문 2: 성장 동력의 질과 수익성 악화 요인

AppLovin의 성장은 Axon 2 모델을 통해 달성되었으며, 비게임(non-gaming) 수익에서 28%의 성장을 기록했습니다. 그러나 전체 매출 성장률은 지난 분기 53%로, 이는 이전 분기 1분기 59% 성장률보다 감소한 수치입니다. 이러한 성장률 둔화는 게임 광고가 여전히 전체 매출의 대부분을 차지하는 상황에서 발생한 것으로 보입니다. 특히, Axon 2 모델의 최신 업그레이드 시점에 맞춰 컴퓨팅 비용 및 연구 개발(R&D) 지출이 증가하면서 수익성 측면에서 일시적인 약점을 보였습니다. 이는 성장 동력을 유지하기 위해 투자 비용을 늘려야 하는 구조적 압박을 시사합니다.

본문 3: 밸류에이션 매력도와 장기 전망

AppLovin의 선행 주가수익비율(P/E)이 19 미만이라는 점은 시장이 현재의 성장률과 수익성 악화 요인을 반영하여 해당 주식에 대해 상대적으로 보수적인 가치를 부여하고 있음을 나타냅니다. 이는 Palantir가 높은 멀티플을 받고 있는 것과 대비되어, 시장이 성장률 외에 기업의 펀더멘털과 밸류에이션을 동시에 고려하고 있음을 보여줍니다. 자기 서비스 플랫폼 출시와 같은 전략적 움직임은 향후 비게임 부문의 성장을 가속화하여 이 밸류에이션이 재평가될 여지를 제공할 수 있습니다.

결론

Palantir와 AppLovin의 사례는 높은 성장률이 반드시 높은 밸류에이션을 의미하지 않으며, 기업의 비즈니스 모델, 성장 동력의 질, 그리고 현재의 밸류에이션 수준이 투자 결정에 결정적인 요소임을 보여줍니다. AppLovin은 현재의 성장세와 매력적인 밸류에이션을 바탕으로 향후 비게임 부문 성장을 통해 가치를 재평가할 가능성이 있습니다. 다만, 컴퓨팅 및 R&D 비용 증가에 따른 수익성 압박을 지속적으로 관리하는 것이 중요합니다.

---

원문 링크: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/16/this-software-stock-just-produced-a-rule-of-40-sco/?.tsrc=rss

This Software Stock Just Produced a Rule of 40 Score Nearly as High as Palantir's, and Its Valuation Is Much More Attractive

Palantir Technologies ( PLTR -2.78% ) CEO Alex Karp is fond of highlighting the company's Rule of 40 score. The Rule of 40 states that a healthy software company's year-over-year revenue growth percentage plus its operating margin must exceed 40. Palantir blew that benchmark away last quarter, producing a Rule of 40 score of 155.

Another software company is quietly producing a triple-digit Rule of 40 score as well. But while the market is rewarding Palantir with earnings and sales multiples far in excess of those of practically any other company of its size, the valuation for this other fast-growing software stock is much more tame. In fact, its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) sits below 19, less than the overall S&P 500 's.

Here's why AppLovin ( APP +0.89% ) deserves a closer look.

Can this software stock keep its triple-digit Rule of 40 score?

AppLovin is an adtech company that sets itself apart by charging advertisers only when ads convert. The catch is, advertisers have to turn over practically everything about ad placement and pricing to AppLovin's black box model. The company's Axon 2 models have driven a sharp acceleration in revenue over the last few years, as it has also expanded AppLovin's market beyond its original gaming niche.

Management has seen excellent progress in non-gaming revenue growth, and it launched a self-service platform in June, which should help accelerate onboarding and total revenue growth. Total non-gaming-related revenue in the second quarter exceeded the seasonally strong fourth quarter by 28%. However, weakness in gaming advertising, which still accounts for the vast majority of its revenue, led to a disappointing overall result -- total revenue grew 53% year over year last quarter, down from the 59% growth it posted in the first quarter.

The weakness stems from the timing of the latest upgrade in the Axon 2 models. At the same time, the company spent more on compute to train its models and on research and development to improve them further. Management says the model update is now live, the third quarter is off to a strong start, and the business is back on the trajectory it expects. With its strength in gaming and the expansive market beyond gaming, management sees the potential for long-term compound annual revenue growth of 30%.

What's more, the business's margin profile is incredible. Despite increased spending to improve the Axon 2 models, the company posted an operating margin of 78% last quarter. That makes its Rule of 40 score 131 for the quarter. Over the long run, sales and marketing may come down as a percentage of revenue due to the growing self-service platform and the scale of operations. However, management is likely to funnel more money into research and development to ensure Axon 2 maintains its advantage over the competition.

CFO Matt Stumpf noted that the company doesn't manage for margin, but focuses on EBITDA and free cash flow growth. If it can invest a dollar in improving its artificial intelligence models and get more than a dollar back in cash returns, it'll do it. That said, Stumpf expects the EBITDA margin to remain in the low-80% range over the long term. So, combined with 30% long-term revenue growth, AppLovin should maintain a triple-digit Rule of 40 score for the foreseeable future.

Why is the market paying so much more for Palantir stock?

Palantir shares trade for more than 100 times estimated earnings over the next year and more than 50 times estimated sales. That's an exceptional premium, suggesting the company's growth runway is massive.

In comparison, AppLovin's earnings and sales multiples of 19 and 13, respectively, suggest investors don't expect earnings growth to remain elevated over the long run.

To be sure, Palantir has a tremendous opportunity. Its total addressable market could expand from $335 billion this year to $1.4 trillion by 2033, according to select analyst estimates. Palantir could merely maintain its market penetration rate and grow revenue at a compound rate of 23%. Doubling its market penetration, well within reason, would double that average growth rate.

That said, the digital advertising market is expected to grow relatively quickly as well. Global spending could reach $662 billion this year and $1.7 trillion by 2033, according to Grand View Research. That's a compound annual growth rate of 14.3%, which supports AppLovin's estimate of 30% long-term growth as it takes share of the large non-gaming ad market.

But while Palantir faces few limitations to its growth, AppLovin's black-box ad platform will struggle to deliver exceptional results for advertisers if it saturates the market. More advertisers using the same algorithm makes it less effective. That sets an upper limit on AppLovin's market penetration.

Still, at just 19 times forward earnings, the stock looks underpriced relative to its potential, even with that limitation. The company should be able to deliver strong revenue growth at very high margins for years to come, and the market is heavily discounting that right now.

Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/16/this-software-stock-just-produced-a-rule-of-40-sco/?.tsrc=rss