미국-이란 스위스에서 회담 진행, 호르무즈 해협 폐쇄 유지
US-Iran talks in Switzerland to get under way as strait of Hormuz remains closed - The Guardian
미국-이란 회담이 진행되지만 호르무즈 해협 폐쇄로 인한 불확실성이 장기적 전망을 흐리고 있어 중립적인 입장을 취할 수 있습니다.
핵심 요약
미국과 이란의 스위스 회담이 핵 문제와 레바논 정전 협상에 집중하며, 호르무즈 해협은 여전히 폐쇄된 상태입니다.
핵심요약
- 1~2일 동안 진행되는 미국-이란 회담
- 핵 문제와 레바논 정전 협상이 주요 논의 항목
- 호르무즈 해협 폐쇄로 인한 에너지 시장 영향 전망
- 이란의 고위 관료들이 참석하며 경제 제재 해제 논의 강화
도입
미국과 이란의 회담은 중동 지역의 안정성과 글로벌 에너지 시장에 미치는 영향을 고려할 때 투자자들에게 중요한 주제입니다. 특히 호르무즈 해협의 폐쇄는 석유 수출에 직접적인 영향을 미치며, 이는 에너지 가격 변동성의 주요 요인이 될 수 있습니다. 따라서 이번 회담의 결과는 글로벌 시장 동향을 예측하는 데 중요한 역할을 할 것입니다.
본문 1: 에너지 시장 변동성 확대 가능성
호르무즈 해협의 폐쇄는 글로벌 에너지 시장에 immediatly적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 이 해협을 통해 매년 약 20%의 세계 석유 수출이 이루어지는데, 폐쇄가 지속될 경우 에너지 가격이 급등할 가능성이 있습니다. 이는 특히 중동 지역과 아시아를 연결하는 해상 운송에 큰 타격을 줄 수 있습니다. 따라서 투자자들은 에너지 관련 주식에 대한 포트폴리오를 재검토할 필요가 있습니다. 에너지 가격의 급등은 관련 기업의 수익성에 긍정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있지만, 동시에 글로벌 경제 성장률에 부정적인 영향을 줄 수 있습니다.
본문 2: 중동 지역 안정성 영향
미국과 이란의 회담은 중동 지역의 정치적 안정성에 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 레바논 정전 협상이 성공적으로 결론이 나면, 해당 지역의 긴장감이 완화될 수 있습니다. 그러나 회담이 실패할 경우, 중동 지역의 갈등이 더욱 심화될 가능성이 있습니다. 이는 글로벌 시장 안정성에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있으며, 특히 중동 지역과 경제적 관계를 맺고 있는 기업들에게 큰 타격을 줄 수 있습니다. 따라서 투자자들은 중동 지역과의 경제적 관계를 고려하여 포트폴리오를 조정할 필요가 있습니다.
본문 3: 글로벌 경제 성장률 전망
에너지 가격의 변동성과 중동 지역의 정치적 불안정성은 글로벌 경제 성장률에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 특히 에너지 가격이 급등할 경우, 소비자들의 구매력 감소로 인해 경제 성장률이 저하될 가능성이 있습니다. 또한 중동 지역의 정치적 불안정성이 지속될 경우, 글로벌 무역에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 따라서 투자자들은 글로벌 경제 성장률 전망을 고려하여 포트폴리오를 조정할 필요가 있습니다. 이는 특히 에너지 관련 주식과 중동 지역과의 경제적 관계를 맺고 있는 기업들에게 중요한 고려 사항이 될 것입니다.
결론
미국과 이란의 회담 결과는 글로벌 에너지 시장과 중동 지역의 정치적 안정성에 큰 영향을 미칠 것입니다. 투자자들은 에너지 가격 변동성과 중동 지역의 정치적 불안정성을 고려하여 포트폴리오를 조정할 필요가 있습니다. 또한 글로벌 경제 성장률 전망을 고려하여 투자 전략을 수립하는 것이 중요합니다. 이번 회담의 결과가 글로벌 시장 동향에 미치는 영향을 지속적으로 모니터링하는 것이 필요합니다.
Original Article
US-Iran talks in Switzerland to get under way as strait of Hormuz remains closed - The Guardian
JD Vance says talks aim to ‘make progress on the nuclear issue, make progress on the Lebanon ceasefire issue’
Middle East crisis – live updates
Talks between Iran and the US aimed at building out the fragile interim deal to end the war have got under way in Switzerland, beset by difficulties including an Iranian decision to keep the strait of Hormuz closed in protest at Donald Trump’s inability to force Israel to end the fighting in Lebanon.
The US vice-president, JD Vance , leading the US delegation, said he was adding Lebanon to an agenda that had originally been conceived to focus on the opening of the strait, the lifting of US sanctions on Iranian oil exports and the unfreezing of Iranian assets held overseas.
Vance arrived at a Qatari-owned Swiss mountainside resort in Bürgenstock early on Sunday to meet Iranian negotiators for the second time since the months-long conflict began. He has already held direct talks with the Iranians in Islamabad.
The Iranian delegation is led by the speaker of the parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, but the presence of the deputy oil minister and the governor of Iran’s central bank shows how Iran had wanted to focus on the terms for lifting sanctions.
The first clause of the memorandum of understanding published last week requires a ceasefire on all fronts including Lebanon , where fighting has escalated between Israel and the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah.
Vance said: “I think we’re going to hopefully make progress on the nuclear issue, make progress on the Lebanon ceasefire issue. Those are the two big things that I think we’re to be focused on.” He said he could join the talks only “for a day or two”.
The Swiss foreign ministry said the US and Iranian delegations, plus mediators from Pakistan and Qatar, were all present at the luxury resort.
The Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, said Iran was meeting mediators in the morning and would then hold a four-way meeting with the mediators and the US in the afternoon.
The practical impact of the Iranian decision to keep the strait of Hormuz closed is yet to be tested, but Trump said last week that the world was four weeks from running out of sufficient refined oil, and said there would have been worldwide recession if he had not agreed to the strait’s reopening by lifting the US blockade on Iranian oil ports.
He is under fierce attack from US supporters of Israel who are angry at the personal attacks mounted on the Israeli prime minster, Benjamin Netanyahu, by Trump and Vance.
The Iranian delegation arrived in Switzerland with a furious row exploding in Tehran between advocates of negotiations and those that insist pursuing an agreement with the US is purposeless because the US cannot be trusted.
Mahmoud Nabavian, a long-term critic of the negotiations and a member of the delegation that went to Islamabad, claimed the negotiations being pursued were “fundamentally different” to the conditions originally approved by the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. Last week, Khamenei published a letter saying he opposed the talks but in deference to the president, Masoud Pezeshkian, had permitted the talks to proceed so long as the interests of the axis of resistance – a reference to Hezbollah – were protected.
Nabavian’s appearance on state TV was cut short and it was announced legal action would be taken against him. A senior official from the state broadcaster Irib was reportedly to resign.
During his appearance, Nabavian claimed correspondence had been sent by the supreme leader three times limiting the scope of the proposed talks. He claimed that in one letter referring to the Islamabad talks, Khamenei wrote: “What was achieved in the negotiations is completely different from what was supposed to be done and was a condition for the legitimacy of the negotiations.”
Referring to the management of the strait of Hormuz, Nabavian said: “The leader of the revolution has emphasised Iran’s monopoly on the management of the strait of Hormuz, collecting tolls from passing vessels, restrictions on enemy ships, and allocating the revenues from the tolls to the people, families of martyrs, and veterans.”
The claim that Iran’s negotiators may be ignoring the guidelines set by the supreme leader would be regarded as a very serious charge inside Iran.
Pezeshkian tried to calm the mood, saying: “All the provisions of the memorandum of understanding signed between Iran and the United States are in our favour, and the achievements of this dialogue and negotiation will be made clear.”
Pezeshkian said the words of the US president had changed 180 degrees. “Trump, who forbade us from doing many things, in his recent speech considered all of them the right of the people and the nation. Our $6bn in money will be returned from Qatar.”
Pointing out that Netanyahu was the first to be dissatisfied with the negotiations, he added: “The achievements of this dialogue and negotiation will be revealed. All the provisions of the memorandum are in our favour.”
The only American demand “is that we not have atomic bombs; this is something that the martyred leader has said many times: ‘We do not want atomic bombs.’ The United States said ‘write this and sign it’ and we signed.”
There remained scepticism from Tehran, however, with Mohsen Rezaei, a military adviser to Khamenei, posting on X: “The enemy has shown itself to be a promise-breaker.” He said: “One should be cautious; any optimism will be exploited by the enemy.”
Hojjatoleslam Sadeghi, the supreme leader’s representative to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said: “Our enmity with arrogance will never end. We are not negotiating to reconcile, but rather to get our rights.”
Washington announced a renewed ceasefire in Lebanon later on Friday, but Israeli troops again clashed with Hezbollah fighters the following day, with each side accusing the other of breaking the truce. Citing a US “breach of contract”, Iran’s central military command said it was closing the strait of Hormuz to vessel traffic.