핵심요약

• 호르무즈 해협 통행량은 전쟁 이전 대비 하루 평균 8척에서 2~3척으로 감소했습니다.
• 유조선 통행량 감소에도 불구하고, 석유는 해협을 우회하거나 선박 간 거래를 통해 비밀리에 이동하고 있습니다.
• 이란의 경제적 고통은 미국보다 더 크지만, 정치적 압박은 상대적으로 낮다는 분석입니다.
• 미국은 군사력 대신 경제적 압박을 통해 이란을 굴복시키려 시도하고 있습니다.

도입

본 기사는 미국과 이란 간의 지정학적 대립이 에너지 자원 및 해상 무역로에 미치는 영향을 분석하며, 경제적 압박과 군사적 행동이 어떻게 상호작용하는지를 보여줍니다. 투자자들은 이러한 에너지 지정학적 리스크가 글로벌 유가 및 에너지 시장의 변동성에 미치는 장기적인 영향을 주목해야 합니다.

본문 1: 해상 통행 제한과 에너지 무기 약화

호르무즈 해협의 통행 제한은 이란의 에너지 무기(Energy Weapon)에 제약을 가하고 있습니다. 기사에 따르면, 전쟁 이전에는 하루에 약 8척의 VLCC가 통과했으나 현재는 2~3척만이 통과하고 있습니다. 이는 해협 통행이 심각하게 제한되어 해상 운송의 병목 현상이 발생하고 있음을 의미합니다. 이러한 제한은 이란이 에너지 수출을 통해 얻는 지리적 이점을 약화시키며, 해상 운송의 비용과 위험을 증가시켜 이란의 에너지 무기 효력을 감소시키는 결과를 낳습니다. 즉, 물리적 통제력의 감소는 에너지 시장에 대한 이란의 영향력을 약화시키는 핵심 요인으로 작용합니다.

본문 2: 경제적 압박과 정치적 역학관계

비록 해상 통행이 제한되었음에도 불구하고, 석유는 해협을 우회하거나 선박 간 거래를 통해 비밀리에 이동하고 있습니다. 이는 물리적 통제력의 한계를 극복하려는 이란의 전략적 대응을 보여줍니다. 또한, 전문가 분석에 따르면 이란의 경제적 고통은 미국보다 더 크지만, 정치적 압박은 상대적으로 낮다는 점이 주목됩니다. 이는 미국이 군사력보다는 경제적 압박을 통해 이란을 굴복시키려 하는 전략이 현재로서는 정치적 역학관계에서 효과적이지 않을 수 있음을 시사합니다. 경제적 고통이 정치적 양보로 직결되지 않는 상황에서, 이란은 지속적으로 군사적 행동을 통해 글로벌 에너지 시장에 혼란을 야기하고 있습니다.

본문 3: 장기적 전망과 리스크

이란의 생존 경제는 이미 전쟁으로 인해 큰 타격을 입었으며, 지속적인 압박 속에서 이란이 어떻게 대응할지가 향후 에너지 시장의 주요 변수가 될 것입니다. 이란이 에너지 공급을 지속적으로 방해하는 행위를 통해 국제 시장의 불안정성을 유지하려 할 경우, 유가 및 에너지 가격은 지정학적 리스크 프리미엄을 반영하며 높은 변동성을 보일 가능성이 높습니다. 장기적으로 볼 때, 해상 통행 제한과 경제적 압박이 균형을 이루는 상황에서, 양측 모두 군사적 충돌을 피하면서 에너지 흐름을 관리하는 새로운 형태의 비공식적 협력이나 대립이 나타날 가능성을 염두에 두어야 합니다.

결론

결론적으로, 호르무즈 해협에서의 물리적 통제력은 감소하고 있으나, 이란의 지정학적 레버리지는 여전히 존재합니다. 미국이 경제적 압박을 통해 이란을 굴복시키려 하지만, 이란은 지속적인 행동으로 대립 구도를 유지하고 있습니다. 향후 에너지 시장의 안정성은 양측이 군사적 충돌을 피하고 경제적 상호의존성을 관리하는 새로운 균형점을 찾는 데 달려 있을 것으로 전망됩니다. 투자자들은 이러한 지정학적 변동성을 지속적으로 모니터링해야합니다.

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원문 링크: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTE9tRUxzSWdmZFVpZDhTM2lDWVZSWDhGN2l5cUFCazZDNnhMa0ZDYTB4ZzdJZzdpbVItWHBIZ1EzaDBmSmk3ZjFOcTBvb3M4ekpSNVBwUFdxTDBVOHZiaml3SFBpOHNXNFlTZURDanlMMHRHc2tUOEhpTDdfanl3d0U?oc=5

Trump is squeezing Iran’s economy and oil sales. It may still have the upper hand in Hormuz - CNN

Iran and the United States are doubling down on competing claims of control over the Strait of Hormuz, but the reality is more nuanced than either side is willing to admit. Shipping traffic remains severely restricted, demonstrating that many shipowners are not willing to risk a possible Iranian attack and underscoring Tehran’s ongoing leverage over Hormuz. Vessel crossings amount to a tiny proportion of the 130-odd daily transits before the war, often barely reaching double digits. When it comes to crude oil-laden tankers, on average, only about two to three Very Large Crude Carriers, or VLCCs, have transited the strait every day since July 7, according to Kpler, which tracks ships using transponders and satellite data. That compares with roughly eight VLCC transits daily before the war. Yet despite fewer transits, increasing volumes of oil are bypassing the strait altogether or relying on US protection and ship-to-ship transfers to move oil covertly out of the Persian Gulf. A leaky Hormuz blunts Tehran’s newfound energy weapon, while also alleviating some of the pressure on crude prices, and hence gasoline prices, buying US President Donald Trump more time to prolong the current standoff in the hopes that Iran backs down. The United States is betting that economic pressure will achieve what military force has so far failed to accomplish: compel the Iranian regime to cave. Iran is showing no signs of capitulating, however, despite mounting pressure on its economy and oil sales. It continues to attack ships in the region, disrupting energy supplies to global markets. “It’s now a matter of who blinks first, if anyone,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad, an energy consultancy. “There’s this dichotomy… economic pain is higher for Iran than for the US at the moment, but, importantly, political pressure on Iran is much lower,” he told CNN. Iran’s survival economy Iran’s economy has already taken a major hit from the war. The International Monetary Fund expects it to shrink by more than 5% this year, which would be the worst contraction in almost four decades. Inflation is near 80% and the rial currency is at record lows to the dollar, forcing many Iranians to buy even essentials on credit. But Trump may be underestimating Iran’s pain threshold. Economic hardship is familiar territory for the country’s citizens and, so far, there have been no widespread demonstrations against the regime, which only appears emboldened by the war. “For Iran, the leadership is prepared to absorb a lot more economic pain,” said Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy. Iran has “absorbed years of US sanctions, and now a long war, and has not backed down.” The US is tightening the screws by choking off Iran’s oil exports through a blockade of Iranian ports. Loadings onto Iranian tankers have fallen to a fraction of the levels seen between February and April, according to Kpler. Iran already has roughly 80 million barrels on the water outside the blockade, mostly committed to China, which will earn it roughly $1.5 billion a month at current prices, said Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler. But the clock is ticking. At a discharge rate of 650,000 barrels a day, Tehran will have roughly four months’ worth of export revenues, he added. “It’s a bit like a slow death rather than falling off a cliff,” he told CNN. The US economy, on the other hand, has been comparatively insulated from the war, but rising gasoline prices, now above $4 a gallon on average, are hurting many Americans and testing Trump’s popularity ahead of midterm elections in November. Yet Trump is digging in. “The unpopular war and higher gasoline prices cost (Trump), but a chaotic Middle East retreat would be worse,” said Dan Alamariu, chief geopolitical strategist at Alpine Macro, an Oxford Economics company. “American voters don’t like presidents that lose wars,” he wrote in a note last week. The battle for Hormuz The Trump administration has touted its ability to escort ships through the strait, but several analysts who spoke to CNN said Iran continues to wield significant influence over the waterway. “Iran exerts near-full control of the Strait of Hormuz,” enforced through “the threat of attack,” said Dimitris Maniatis, the CEO of Marisks, a maritime security firm based in Greece. Notwithstanding Tehran’s influence, as many as 15 million barrels of oil are flowing out the Gulf each day on average, including via the strait and through pipelines, according to US Energy Secretary Chris Wright. That’s a sizeable chunk of the 20 million barrels that the region was exporting before the Iran war every day. Ship-tracking services, including Kpler, cite much lower figures, but analysts concede that sailings are becoming harder to track. Many tankers are attempting “dark” transits, switching their Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) off to avoid detection and in some cases using ship-to-ship transfers outside Hormuz to further obscure their movements. Iran is likely turning a blind eye to these transits, which in many cases involve tankers ultimately owned by Iranian, Russian, Chinese or Turkish interests, according to Maniatis. “A vessel that turns off its AIS does not go invisible… This big chunk of metal on the water has a lot of electronic transmissions over and above its AIS transponder,” he told CNN, noting that even a microwave or fridge in the ship’s galley gives off detectable signals. “If Iranians want to hit a vessel, they don’t rely on its AIS,” he added. Even Wright acknowledged that Iran, which he said had “built up a giant arsenal,” was “causing difficulties in the region” and “for the world economy.” But he argued that its ability to do so was declining. “Our ability to escort and bring products out of that region is growing,” he said in an interview with Fox News last week. Kpler’s data seems to bear that out: The firm reckons that 72 of the 84 crude oil-laden tankers, or 86%, that have transited the strait since July 7 have likely used a UN-authorized route through Omani waters. Falakshahi cautions, however, that it does not know this “with certainty.” For now, flows through Hormuz are providing much needed relief to the oil market. But they may perversely serve to drag the war out even longer. “Barrels getting through (Hormuz) raise the odds of a longer war, possibly deep into 2027,” said Alamariu, of Alpine Macro. “Neither side feels urgency if oil does not materially move and Iran still earns enough to sustain the regime,” he added.

Source: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTE9tRUxzSWdmZFVpZDhTM2lDWVZSWDhGN2l5cUFCazZDNnhMa0ZDYTB4ZzdJZzdpbVItWHBIZ1EzaDBmSmk3ZjFOcTBvb3M4ekpSNVBwUFdxTDBVOHZiaml3SFBpOHNXNFlTZURDanlMMHRHc2tUOEhpTDdfanl3d0U?oc=5