핵심요약

• S&P 500의 CAPE 비율은 현재 41로, 155년 역사상 최고 수준
• CAPE 비율이 25~30을 넘어가면 미래 주가 수익률이 실망스럽다는 점이 역사적으로 증명됨
• CAPE 비율은 10년간의 평균 인플레이션 조정 후 주당 순이익을 현재 가격으로 나눈 값
• 경제학자 로버트 실러가 개발한 지수로, 단기적인 시장 변동성을 배제하고 장기적 가치를 평가하는 데 사용

도입

이 기사는 S&P 500의 현재 평가 수준이 역사적으로 매우 높은 수준에 달해 있으며, 이는 미래에 시장 조정 가능성을 시사한다는 점에서 투자자에게 중요한 정보를 제공합니다. CAPE 비율은 단기적인 시장 변동성을 배제하고 장기적인 가치를 평가하는 데 유용한 지표로, 현재 수준이 매우 높은 것은 투자자에게 주의가 필요함을 의미합니다.

본문 1: CAPE 비율의 역사적 의미

CAPE 비율이 41에 달한 것은 155년 역사상 매우 높은 수준입니다. 이 지수는 1871년부터 시작된 데이터로, 25~30을 넘어가면 미래 주가 수익률이 실망스럽다는 점이 반복적으로 관찰되었습니다. 현재 수준은 과거 어떤 시기보다도 높은 것으로, 이는 시장이 극도로 비싸게 평가되고 있음을 의미합니다. 이는 투자자에게 미래의 시장 조정 가능성을 시사하며, 장기적인 관점에서 포트폴리오의 리밸런싱이 필요할 수 있습니다.

본문 2: CAPE 비율의 계산 방법과 한계

CAPE 비율은 10년간의 평균 인플레이션 조정 후 주당 순이익을 현재 가격으로 나눈 값으로 계산됩니다. 이 방법은 단기적인 시장 변동성을 배제하고 장기적인 가치를 평가하는 데 유용합니다. 그러나 CAPE 비율도 완벽한 지표는 아니며, 경제 상황이나 정책 변화 등 외부 요인에 의해 영향을 받을 수 있습니다. 따라서 CAPE 비율을 단독으로 신뢰하기보다는 다른 지표와 함께 종합적으로 분석하는 것이 중요합니다.

결론

S&P 500의 CAPE 비율이 현재 41에 달하며 155년 만에 최악의 신호를 보이고 있습니다. 이는 미래에 시장 조정 가능성을 시사하며, 투자자에게 주의가 필요함을 의미합니다. 향후 경제 상황과 정책 변화 등을 주의 깊게 관찰하며, 포트폴리오의 리밸런싱을 고려하는 것이 중요합니다.

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원문 링크: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/06/21/warning-the-sp-500-is-about-to-do-something-for/?.tsrc=rss

Warning: The S&P 500 Could Be on the Verge of Doing Something for the First Time in 155 Years, and It's Not Good News for Investors

With all of the volatility in the stock market this year, most investors probably don't realize the S&P 500 ( ^GSPC +1.08% ) is sitting at a precarious peak. The index's cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio now hovers near a reading of 41 -- a territory that historically signals serious trouble ahead.

The CAPE ratio captures something deeper than daily price movements: It reveals how much investors are willing to pay for every dollar of long-term earnings power. At its current level, the S&P 500 appears to be pricing in unprecedented levels of optimism while quietly laying the foundation for a painful reckoning.

All told, the index looks like it's on a collision course with economic reality, and history suggests the landing may be rough. Read on to learn why.

What is the CAPE ratio and why does it matter?

The CAPE ratio was originally developed by economist Robert Shiller. The metric divides the current S&P 500 price by the average inflation-adjusted earnings per share (EPS) over the previous 10 years. By doing so, the CAPE ratio smooths out any temporary spikes or dips caused by recessions, economic booms, or one-time events. This approach gives a clearer picture of sustainable valuation across the index as a whole.

At face value, the price-to-earnings ratio can appear deceptively attractive in years of strong profitability. But the CAPE forces investors to look across full business cycles. The underlying data for the CAPE ratio stretches back to 1871 -- more than 155 years of market history.

Across that span, the long-term average CAPE has hovered between 17 and 18. As the chart indicates, when the CAPE ratio climbs well above the 25 to 30 range, it has repeatedly warned that future stock returns will be disappointing.

S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio data by YCharts.

At today's reading of 41, the S&P 500 is not merely expensive by historical standards -- it suggests the market is in an extreme zone where patience and realism become essential. While the CAPE ratio falls short of predicting exact timing, it has a flawless ability to show when risk accumulates and the margin of safety starts to disappear.

Analyzing historical CAPE readings

There are only a handful of periods where investors have witnessed the CAPE ratio sustain levels between 30 and 40. The common theme is that each time it ended badly.

During the late 1920s, valuations soared into this range amid roaring economic confidence, only to collapse into the Great Depression and a brutal bear market. In the late 1990s, the CAPE ratio soared to 44 at the peak of dot-com euphoria. Shortly thereafter, the Nasdaq Composite lost more than three-quarters of its value, and the broader market suffered years of stagnation.

The S&P 500 has spent the majority of its existence trading at reasonable multiples. According to historical data, the CAPE ratio remained above 30 only in three distinct episodes: the dot-com bubble, the post- Great Financial crisis in 2018, and the post-COVID bull market (starting in 2021).

Today's reading of 41 is the second-highest in recorded history -- surpassed only by the dot-com era. While the CAPE has briefly reached these heights at other times, sustained readings at this elevated level are extraordinarily rare. Smart investors understand that the current detachment from historical norms is not normal market behavior. Rather, it is an outlier that deserves careful attention.

What does a rising CAPE ratio signal for future market returns?

A rising CAPE ratio means that investors are paying higher prices for the same underlying earning power. In essence, it reflects optimistic sentiment fueled by a variety of things like new technologies (i.e., artificial intelligence), easy credit, or a belief that "this time is different."

History shows that such enthusiasm eventually ends up colliding with reality. From slowing earnings growth, adjustments in monetary policy , or unexpected macroeconomic events, smart investors understand that businesses still operate in a world filled with uncertainty.

At its current reading, expectations embedded in the S&P 500 are exceptionally high. Even a modest disappointment in profit growth from major corporations or a shift in the Federal Reserve's outlook could trigger a sharp repricing.

While none of this guarantees a sudden crash, the probability of more modest long-term returns is rising dramatically. Past episodes at similar valuations have produced flat or negative real returns over the following decade , often accompanied by stomach-churning drawdowns along the way.

Investors would be wise to temper their enthusiasm with some disciplined strategies. Building a diversified portfolio featuring blue chip companies with durable and resilient business models is a good place to start. Supplementing these positions with a healthy cash balance will also provide financial flexibility to buy dips when they occur.

The key to remember here is that the S&P 500 has delivered generational wealth over several decades precisely because it eventually corrects its excesses. While the current CAPE reading is not a reason for immediate panic, it should call for caution and perspective. After 155 years of market history, it's clear how this story could end.

Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/06/21/warning-the-sp-500-is-about-to-do-something-for/?.tsrc=rss