핵심요약

• 이란은 미국의 봉쇄 또는 분쟁으로 인한 경제적 어려움을 견디기 위해 준비하고 있습니다.
• 이란의 최고 국가안보회의 내 강경파들은 이란의 통제권을 보장하는 합의에 동의할 수 있습니다.
• 외교가 실패할 경우 이란은 군사적 공격을 통해 해상 봉쇄를 깨는 '전면적인 공격' 자세로 전환할 준비가 되어 있습니다.
• 이란은 호르무즈 해협 통제권을 양보하지 않는 합의는 받아들이지 않을 가능성이 높습니다.

도입

본 기사는 이란이 호르무즈 해협 통제권을 중심으로 한 지정학적 갈등 속에서 군사적 대립과 외교적 협상 사이에서 취하고 있는 전략적 입장을 다룹니다. 투자자들은 이러한 지정학적 위험이 국제 유가 및 에너지 시장의 변동성에 미치는 영향을 분석해야 합니다. 이란의 군사적 행동 가능성은 지역 안정성을 심각하게 위협하며, 이는 글로벌 공급망과 에너지 가격에 직접적인 영향을 미치기 때문에 해당 분석이 중요합니다.

본문 1: 외교와 강경파의 역학 관계

이란은 미국과의 협상에 대해 열려 있지만, 그 조건으로 호르무즈 해협에 대한 이란의 통제권을 유지할 것을 요구하고 있습니다. 이란의 최고 국가안보회의 내 강경파들은 미국과의 합의에 대해 이란의 통제권을 보장하는 조건 하에서는 지지할 수 있다는 점이 핵심입니다. 이는 외교적 해결을 선호하는 일부 지도부와 군사적 행동을 통한 통제권 확보를 원하는 강경파 간의 내부적 이견을 반영합니다. 이처럼 이견이 존재함에도 불구하고, 이란은 외교적 노력을 병행하며 군사적 옵션을 준비하고 있다는 점은 지역 갈등의 복잡성을 보여줍니다. 즉, 외교적 타협의 가능성과 군사적 강경책의 준비 상태가 동시에 존재한다는 점이 중요합니다.

본문 2: 군사적 에스컬레이션의 위험과 통제권의 중요성

이란 당국은 외교적 해결이 실패할 경우 군사적 행동으로 전환할 준비가 되어 있음을 명확히 밝혔습니다. 특히 이란이 '시기적절하고 정확한' 군사 공격을 통해 미국의 해상 봉쇄를 파괴할 수 있다는 언급은 호르무즈 해협 통제권이 이란에게 단순한 외교적 협상 카드를 넘어선 핵심적인 안보 자산임을 시사합니다. 이란이 해협 통제권을 포기하는 합의를 거부할 가능성이 높다는 점은, 이란에게 있어 이 지역의 통제권이 경제적 이익보다 우선하는 전략적 목표임을 의미합니다. 이러한 통제권의 중요성은 미국의 해상 전략과 국제 에너지 시장의 안정성에 직접적인 영향을 미치므로, 향후 지역의 군사적 긴장도가 상승할 경우 시장은 높은 변동성을 경험할 수 있습니다.

본문 3: 장기적인 지정학적 전망과 시장 영향

장기적으로 볼 때, 호르무즈 해협에서의 통제권 다툼은 국제 에너지 공급망의 취약성을 지속적으로 반영할 것입니다. 이란이 군사적 옵션을 준비하고 있다는 점은 잠재적인 충돌 위험이 상존함을 의미하며, 이는 국제 유가와 같은 원자재 가격에 지속적인 프리미엄을 부여할 수 있습니다. 투자자들은 외교적 해결이 지연될 경우, 지역 내 군사적 긴장도가 고조되면서 에너지 시장의 불확실성이 증가할 것으로 전망해야 합니다. 따라서 이란의 국내 정치적 상황과 국제 관계의 변화를 면밀히 모니터링하는 것이 필수적입니다.

결론

결론적으로, 이란은 외교적 협상과 군사적 행동이라는 두 가지 옵션을 모두 준비하고 있으며, 호르무즈 해협 통제권은 이란의 안보와 경제적 생존에 있어 최우선 과제입니다. 향후 시장은 이란의 외교적 움직임과 군사적 준비 태세 사이의 미묘한 균형을 주시하며 높은 지정학적 변동성에 대비해야 할 것입니다. 특히 이란의 내부 정치적 변화와 미국과의 관계 변화에 대한 감시가 중요합니다.

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원문 링크: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiakFVX3lxTE1YbVdTTmFsblNZMVczLXFaY0JBUlRZUjY5Qmd4cDdRRkphSzhGR042TXNCdTNYSy1QdzY2dkRLS2w5RG1qcnZwZXV4aVBVZG5vX3lsUGJYZUZkTDdxUkZWTVJ6TXJja3BiSEE?oc=5

Iran ready to risk war to keep control of Hormuz, analysts say - The Jerusalem Post

Tehran has already begun positioning itself to suppress potential domestic unrest and weather the prolonged economic hardship that could result from an extended US blockade or a return to more active conflict with the US, according to international experts. At the same time, reports indicate that Tehran remains open to negotiations, provided any agreement meets all of its demands, including leaving the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control.The Institute for the Study of War assessed that hardliners within Iran's Supreme National Security Council could support a deal with the US, provided it meets Tehran's terms, notably including continued Iranian control over the vital waterway. The assessment was based on an Axios report, later confirmed by a spokesperson for the Iraqi Kurdistan presidency to Iran International, that IRGC Commander Ahmad Vahidi had maintained indirect contact with the US and preferred to resolve the conflict through negotiations.Despite this preference, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday that Iran would shift to a “fully offensive” posture after Washington ruled out extending a temporary ceasefire agreement.“Iranian entities must be prepared to escalate tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and wider region, as Iran will be ready to make decisions and take action on difficult decisions,” the Iranian official said, adding that Tehran would conduct a “timely and precise” military attack to break the US naval blockade if diplomacy failed.IRGC unlikely to support deal that cedes control of Hormuz The continued attacks on vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz without coordinating with Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority suggest that Vahidi would be unlikely to accept an agreement that did not leave the waterway under Iranian control, the institute assessed.Notably, the memorandum of understanding signed between the US and Iran, which included a 60-day window that expired on Monday, required under its fifth clause that Iran allow safe and free passage for commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz during that period. Tehran interpreted the provision as leaving Hormuz under Iranian control, which largely contributed to the agreement's collapse, and the dispute over control of the waterway ultimately contributed to the renewal of a US blockade that has further strained Iran's already struggling economy.Although the economic crisis had already triggered protests in December, which escalated in January into widespread calls to end the Islamic regime's rule, the institute assessed that Vahidi's hardline faction was willing to accept the financial consequences of a prolonged blockade, as well as regional instability and domestic unrest.Human rights organizations reported that upwards of 30,000 people were killed by regime security forces during the January demonstrations, while thousands were arbitrarily detained. The Islamic regime has also continued to execute individuals accused of participating in what it described as foreign-backed riots. Iran's months-long internet blackout, which further damaged the country's economy, also made it difficult for international rights groups to monitor the situation, UN officials acknowledged at the time.Iran's year-on-year inflation rate remains above 80%, ISNA reported on Saturday. Mehdi Pirsalehi, head of the country's Food and Drug Administration, said on Sunday that around two-thirds of medicines in Iran had increased in price because of difficulties accessing raw materials and the higher cost of transporting them by air rather than sea. Numerous reports from Iranian diaspora and domestic media have also pointed to a cost of living crisis leaving Iranians unable to afford basic goods and services and the Islamic Republic failing to pay out social welfare benefits.Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref separately said on Sunday that the Islamic Republic needs to confront US economic pressure through proper planning and policies, calling on Tehran to prepare for “worst-case scenarios,” which the institute suggested referenced a return to demonstrations.Acknowledging that it remains unclear whether Vahidi would make concessions in exchange for economic relief to avoid such a situation, the institute noted that he may instead prefer to further securitize Iranian society and continue investing in land-based shipment routes, despite officials warning that they cannot replace maritime transportation.Tehran is preparing to resume its suppression of dissentRoger Macmillan, a security analyst and former director at Iran International, noted that the regime recently appointed Hossein Taeb as commander of the Basij paramilitary force. Taeb previously headed the IRGC's Intelligence Organization.Taeb was known for his role in crushing the 2009 demonstrations that erupted after a disputed presidential election. Thousands were arbitrarily arrested, dozens were killed on the streets or in detention, and many protesters reported being tortured, according to human rights organizations.Like many analysts, Macmillan interpreted Taeb's appointment as a sign that Tehran is preparing to resume its suppression of dissent.“Vahidi does not have to choose between holding the line against Washington and crushing dissent at home,” he told The Jerusalem Post. “You need to watch the sequence... This has run before: protests will develop, state media brands protesters 'rioters' and 'terrorists,' the internet goes dark, mass arrests follow, the judiciary declares zero leniency, and executions are used explicitly to restore fear as deterrence.”Earlier this week, a high-profile student at Sharif University of Technology was expelled for allegedly hanging a mouse doll from a tree during protests, a reference to the mocking nickname “Moush-Ali,” or “Mouse Ali,” used for then-Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.Likewise, the Iranian legal network Dadbaan reported that authorities closed a number of coffee shops and restaurants after accusing them of allowing “gambling, norm-breaking, promoting corruption, and failing to observe Islamic norms,” according to the office of the Public and Revolutionary Prosecutor of Qaenat. The network also reported that women were being denied access to public services for failing to wear the hijab, while the Sunday Times reported that Iran's morality police were resuming patrols.Macmillan noted that the stalling of oil exports, along with the Central Bank of Iran's issuance of the country's largest banknote in history, were signs that the pause in intense strikes on Iran had not allowed the regime to recover.“It is running out of road, and it knows it. Every week without a settlement pushes Iranian households closer to the conditions that produced the January uprising. And every week, Vahidi's newly reshuffled command structure gets more ready to meet them,” he continued. “They have been emboldened by the apparent failure of the US/Israeli bombing campaign to reduce and remove their capability to produce drones [and] there have been reports that they are back to their pre-war stock levels… So they are ready to resume [fighting].”Macmillan said Tehran was preparing for a prolonged conflict, believing that US President Donald Trump's low approval rating, interceptor shortages and the approaching midterm elections could give Iran an advantage.

Source: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiakFVX3lxTE1YbVdTTmFsblNZMVczLXFaY0JBUlRZUjY5Qmd4cDdRRkphSzhGR042TXNCdTNYSy1QdzY2dkRLS2w5RG1qcnZwZXV4aVBVZG5vX3lsUGJYZUZkTDdxUkZWTVJ6TXJja3BiSEE?oc=5