핵심요약

• 트레일링 12개월(TTM) 인플레이션은 64번째 연속으로 6월에 연준의 장기 목표치인 2%를 초과했습니다.
• 트럼프의 정책 중 관세와 이란 전쟁은 TTM 인플레이션을 상승시킨 주요 요인으로 작용했습니다.
• 미국은 10%에서 12.5%에 이르는 광범위한 글로벌 관세를 80개국 이상에 부과했습니다.
• 이러한 정책은 소비자 비용 하락 주장과 상반되는 인플레이션 압력을 발생시켰습니다.

도입

본 기사는 도널드 트럼프 행정부 하에서 발생한 인플레이션(트럼프 인플레이션)의 역설을 분석합니다. 투자자들은 대통령의 비용 하락 주장이 실제 경제 지표와 어떻게 충돌하는지 이해해야 합니다. 이는 단순한 물가 변동을 넘어, 정책적 개입이 거시경제와 자산 시장에 미치는 복합적인 영향을 파악하는 데 중요합니다.

본문 1: 정책과 인플레이션의 메커니즘

트럼프 행정부의 정책이 인플레이션에 미친 메커니즘을 살펴보면, 관세 부과와 지정학적 요인이 핵심적인 역할을 합니다. 트럼프 대통령이 발표한 관세 및 무역 정책은 미국 내 제조 비용을 증가시키는 직접적인 요인으로 작용했습니다. 구체적으로, 미국은 10%에서 12.5%에 이르는 관세를 80개국 이상에 부과했는데, 이는 수입품에 대한 관세를 추가함으로써 국내 제조 비용을 상승시켰습니다. 이러한 비용 증가는 최종 소비자 가격에 전가되어 인플레이션을 부추기는 구조를 만들었습니다. 따라서 비용 하락 주장이 실제 인플레이션 지표와 괴리되는 것은, 정책적 조치가 단기적인 비용 통제보다는 구조적인 공급망 비용 상승을 유발했음을 시사합니다.

본문 2: 거시경제적 충돌과 시장의 반응

인플레이션 지표가 연준의 장기 목표치인 2%를 64개월 연속 초과했다는 사실은 거시경제적 불확실성을 심화시킵니다. 이는 중앙은행이 추구하는 안정적인 물가 환경과 정책 당국의 정책적 목표가 현실의 경제 상황과 충돌하고 있음을 의미합니다. 이러한 괴리는 시장 참여자들에게 인플레이션의 지속성과 통제에 대한 의문을 제기하며 자산 시장의 변동성을 높이는 요인으로 작용합니다. 특히, 관세와 전쟁과 같은 정책적 변수가 인플레이션의 주요 동인으로 작용하면서, 경제의 안정성에 대한 신뢰가 흔들릴 수 있습니다. 이는 금리 정책과 연준의 향후 통화 정책 방향에 대한 시장의 예측을 복잡하게 만듭니다.

본문 3: 장기적 위험 및 전망

트럼프 인플레이션의 장기적 전망을 위해서는 무역 정책의 지속성과 지정학적 위험 요소를 고려해야 합니다. 광범위한 관세 정책이 장기적으로 글로벌 공급망의 효율성을 저해하고 무역 관계에 지속적인 마찰을 유발할 경우, 이는 구조적인 인플레이션 압력으로 남아있을 수 있습니다. 또한, 이란 전쟁과 같은 지정학적 사건은 에너지 및 원자재 가격에 영향을 미쳐 인플레이션에 추가적인 변동성을 더할 수 있습니다. 따라서 투자자들은 단기적인 정책 변화뿐만 아니라, 글로벌 무역 환경과 지정학적 위험이 장기적인 인플레이션 궤적에 미치는 영향을 면밀히 분석해야 합니다.

결론

결론적으로, 트럼프 행정부의 정책은 소비자 비용 하락이라는 주장과 실제 인플레이션 지표 사이에서 명확한 모순을 보입니다. 이러한 모순은 정책적 개입이 경제에 미치는 복합적인 영향을 이해해야 함을 강조합니다. 향후 시장에서는 무역 정책의 지속 가능성과 지정학적 변수가 인플레이션 궤적에 미치는 영향에 대한 지속적인 모니터링이 필요할 것으로 전망됩니다. 투자 결정 시 이러한 구조적 위험 요소를 반드시 고려해야 합니다.

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원문 링크: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/16/donald-trump-claims-costs-coming-down-trumpflation/?.tsrc=rss

President Donald Trump Claims Costs Are "All Coming Down Now," but the Evolution of Trumpflation Appears to Be Having the Opposite Effect

As has been the case throughout Donald Trump's presidency, the stock market is flourishing. Since early June, the iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average ( ^DJI -0.20% ) , broad-based S&P 500 ( ^GSPC -0.17% ) , and growth-stock-fueled Nasdaq Composite ( ^IXIC -0.28% ) have vaulted to record highs.

However, the state of the U.S. economy under Trump is a different story. Several of the president's policies are directly affecting the U.S. inflation rate, which can change the course of the economy and Wall Street.

While President Trump has been adamant that costs are coming down for consumers, the evolution of Trumpflation (inflation driven by the president's policies) paints a far different picture.

President Trump delivering remarks. Image source: Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead, courtesy of the National Archives.

Headline inflation has eased from a three-year high

Some degree of inflation (rising prices) is normal and healthy for an expanding economy. When consumers are spending freely, businesses should possess modest pricing power over their goods and services. This is why the Federal Reserve targets a long-term inflation rate of 2% and not 0%.

But June marked the 64th consecutive month that U.S. trailing 12-month (TTM) inflation exceeded the Federal Open Market Committee's long-term 2% target. Since the start of Donald Trump's second term, two of his policies have boosted TTM inflation: tariffs and the Iran war.

The president unveiled his tariff and trade policy in early April 2025, consisting of a sweeping global tariff and dozens of higher reciprocal tariffs on countries deemed to have adverse trade imbalances with America. Even though the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated most of these tariffs in a February 2026 ruling, the Trump administration has since reimposed sweeping global tariffs, ranging from 10% to 12.5%, on more than 80 countries.

Adding duties to select imported goods can increase domestic manufacturing costs, which are then passed on to consumers. Both former Fed Chair Jerome Powell and current Fed Chair Kevin Warsh have cited Trump's tariffs as a source of elevated prices in the goods sector .

64. As in 64 consecutive months with US inflation above the Fed's 2% target. The Fed has lost all credibility when it comes to fighting inflation. pic.twitter.com/FHWlOX572E

The other Trumpflation catalyst is the Iran war. Shortly after the president green-lit military operations against Iran on Feb. 28, the latter closed the Strait of Hormuz to virtually all maritime traffic. This decision effectively halted the daily flow of a fifth of the world's petroleum liquids .

In the weeks that followed, gas prices skyrocketed at the fastest pace in more than three decades. Rapidly rising fuel prices almost single-handedly drove TTM inflation from a reported 2.4% in February to a three-year high of 4.2% in May.

But the June inflation report appeared to offer a silver lining . With peace talks between the U.S. and Iran ramping up in June, crude oil prices plummeted back to pre-war levels. Although fuel prices don't decline as quickly as they rise during energy supply shocks, this notable dip in crude oil prices sent June's TTM inflation to 3.5%.

In an Aug. 4 interview with Fox News journalist Trace Gallagher, President Trump took a victory lap on the latest inflation data. Said the president:

Costs are coming way down. I inherited, you know, they talk about costs. I inherited very, very high costs, and they're all coming down now. The food, the groceries, it's all coming down.

While the headline inflation figure would appear to concur with the president's claim that price increases have tamed a bit since May, core inflation data, coupled with evidence that Trumpflation is evolving , paint a worrisome picture for the U.S. economy and stock market.

Trumpflation has entered its next phase -- and that's problematic for the economy and Wall Street

Whereas headline inflation has shown clear signs of easing since May, it's a different story altogether when discussing Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). Core PCE removes volatile food and energy costs from the equation, allowing economists to examine long-term price trends.

In June, Core PCE eased from a nearly three-year high of 3.4% to (drum roll)... 3.3%. According to forecasts from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's Inflation Nowcasting tool, Core PCE is expected to remain steady at 3.31% in July before slightly reaccelerating to 3.36% in August .

The price stickiness associated with Core PCE strongly suggests that Trumpflation has entered its next phase and is now entrenched in the broader economy.

BREAKING: US June PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation metric, falls to 3.7%, in-line with expectations. Core PCE inflation fell to 3.3%, the second highest reading since October 2024. US inflation continues to run at nearly double the Fed's 2% target.

Until recently, all focus has been on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and what that might mean for fueling up our vehicles or heating our homes. But the Iran war is about much more than just energy prices . In addition to these front-and-center costs, we're beginning to see other impacts:

The point being that it's unlikely we've witnessed the worst of Trumpflation. Even though headline inflation is declining as energy prices ease, evidence is mounting that Trump-driven inflation is becoming ingrained in the U.S. economy.

Not only does persistently above-average inflation threaten to reduce discretionary spending, but it could do a number on the high-flying stock market.

If the Federal Reserve is forced into action and raises interest rates to combat above-average inflation, the stock market's No. 1 catalyst, the artificial intelligence (AI) data center build-out, may take it on the chin. This AI infrastructure build-out is being financed at least in part with debt. If this expansion slows in any meaningful way due to higher borrowing costs, it may well spell the end to the second-priciest stock market in history .

While President Trump has been quick to declare victory over inflation, the evolution of Trumpflation suggests this battle is just getting started.

Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/16/donald-trump-claims-costs-coming-down-trumpflation/?.tsrc=rss