핵심요약

• 트럼프의 리더십은 이란 문제에서 실패했으며, 이는 세계 경제에 경제적 곤경을 야기했습니다.
• 미국의 군사적 목표(이란 핵 프로그램 제거, 정권 교체) 달성은 어려워졌습니다.
• 미국의 행동은 이란의 저항을 강화시켰으며, 이는 국제법과 글로벌 경제에 위협이 됩니다.
• 트럼프의 전략은 전 세계에 기아와 국제법 훼손의 위험을 초래했습니다.

도입

본 기사는 도널드 트럼프 행정부의 중동 정책 실패가 단순한 지정학적 문제를 넘어 전 세계 경제 시스템과 국제법에 미치는 광범위한 영향을 분석하는 데 중요합니다. 투자자 관점에서 볼 때, 이러한 지정학적 불확실성은 에너지 시장의 변동성, 글로벌 공급망의 취약성, 그리고 국제 금융 시장의 위험 프리미엄을 결정하는 핵심 요인으로 작용합니다. 즉, 중동 지역의 불안정성이 글로벌 자산 가격에 미치는 파급 효과를 이해하는 것은 현재의 포트폴리오 위험 관리에 필수적입니다.

본문 1: 지정학적 목표 달성의 실패와 군사적 역학 관계

기사에서 지적하듯이, 미국의 목표였던 이란의 핵 프로그램 제거 및 정권 교체는 달성하기 어려워졌습니다. 이는 트럼프의 리더십이 오히려 이란의 저항을 강화시키는 결과를 낳았다는 점을 의미합니다. 미국 군사력의 사용이 이란의 반발을 불러일으키며, 이는 미국의 군사적 목표 달성을 가로막는 요인으로 작용했습니다. 이는 군사적 개입이 의도했던 전략적 결과를 얻지 못하고 오히려 장기적인 소모전으로 전환되었음을 보여줍니다. 이러한 실패는 중동 지역의 지정학적 역학 관계가 미국의 의도와 무관하게 변화하고 있음을 시사하며, 이는 향후 에너지 및 무역 정책에 직접적인 영향을 미칩니다.

본문 2: 경제적 비용과 글로벌 위험 전이

트럼프의 무모한 접근 방식은 전 세계 경제에 심각한 비용을 초래했습니다. 기사는 미국이 전면적인 정복 대신 소모전을 선택함으로써 국제법을 훼손하고, 개발도상국에 기아를 초래하며, 모스크바부터 베이징까지의 독재자들의 지지를 얻는 결과를 초래했다고 지적합니다. 이러한 행동은 국제 질서의 붕괴를 야기하며, 이는 글로벌 공급망의 불안정성과 인플레이션 위험을 증폭시킵니다. 특히, 호르무즈 해협 통제와 같은 핵심 전략적 요충지의 불안정성은 국제 유가와 해상 운송 비용에 직접적인 영향을 미치며, 이는 전 세계 경제 주체들에게 직접적인 비용으로 전가됩니다. 따라서 지정학적 실패는 직접적인 경제적 손실로 이어지는 경로를 명확히 보여줍니다.

본문 3: 장기적 전망과 위험 관리

장기적으로 볼 때, 이란과 미국의 관계는 일시적인 군사적 승패를 넘어 국제 규범과 경제적 상호 의존성에 대한 근본적인 재평가를 요구합니다. 트럼프식의 단기적이고 일방적인 접근 방식은 장기적인 안정성을 해치고 새로운 형태의 국제적 갈등을 심화시킬 위험이 있습니다. 따라서 투자자들은 단기적인 지정학적 이벤트뿐만 아니라, 국제법과 다자간 협력 체제가 훼손될 경우 발생할 수 있는 구조적인 위험 프리미엄을 고려해야 합니다. 향후에는 지역 안정을 위한 외교적 노력이 군사적 충돌보다 더 높은 경제적 이익을 가져올 수 있다는 점에 주목할 필요가 있습니다.

결론

결론적으로, 트럼프의 중동 정책은 지정학적 목표 달성에 실패하고 글로벌 경제에 위험을 전가하는 결과를 낳았습니다. 향후 시장은 이러한 지정학적 불안정성이 에너지 가격과 글로벌 공급망에 미치는 영향을 지속적으로 모니터링할 것입니다. 투자 전략은 이러한 구조적 위험을 반영하여, 단기적인 이벤트 리스크와 장기적인 국제 질서의 변화 가능성을 동시에 평가하는 다각적인 접근이 필요합니다. 우리는 지정학적 리스크가 어떻게 실물 경제의 변동성으로 전환되는지 면밀히 관찰해야 할 것입니다.

---

원문 링크: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwFBVV95cUxONnVRSDVGY2lfLXBGM0xRSEtLWjgtc2hBWURtYjU2WEhnaDlsbWFHcEhpQ0lnN1RlS2MySEtGanpoVnZ1c2lhNF84VEl5MkotUXc0dDVoeC1URHB1bG9Ba2NJNDY5Nm5KcnJPMmIzSkZvOTJHMjBYU1pDSVd0dnpfN1FlYS10WkJnMHVMWWRBckMxWVpOd2pYQVdLZw?oc=5

Trump, not Iran, is the world’s greatest danger. He’s a one-man weapon of mass destruction | Simon Tisdall - The Guardian

As the bombing starts again, it’s clear the president has dragged the US into a limitless fiasco – and the world into an economic quagmire

F eckless and clueless, Donald Trump is lost in Iran, unable to find a way out of the disastrous war he started. Once again, the US military is pummelling the country and, increasingly, its civilian infrastructure. As before, this unlawful bludgeoning strengthens the resistance of a hardline regime that cares little for its people’s suffering. How often have Trump and Pete Hegseth, the Pentagon’s wildling lord of bones, hailed a bogus victory? The president claimed this week to be “winning big”. No one believes him. Even as it counts the vast human and economic cost of his Persian folly, a watching world scoffs at US impotence.

Control of the strait of Hormuz, closed due to Trump’s belligerence, is now the White House’s limited, elusive objective. The grander US and Israeli war aims – eliminating Iran’s nuclear programme, degrading its regional militias, regime change – are less attainable than ever. It’s Trump’s craven leadership that renders US forces ineffective, not the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. If Iran really is the existential menace he claims, the logical course would be all-out conquest. When George W Bush decided Iraq posed unacceptable dangers, he invaded with 170,000 ground troops. It was a catastrophe. But at least Bush had balls.

Bone-spur Trump dare not attempt anything like that in Iran, for which small mercy the world should doubtless be thankful. But nor will he admit his mistake in recklessly starting a fight he cannot finish. He prefers to expose civilians and US troops to an unwinnable forever war of attrition, imperil Gulf Arab allies, damage the global economy, risk devastating famine in developing countries, gladden the hearts of tyrants from Moscow to Beijing, eviscerate international law and ruin his Republican party’s electoral prospects – rather than accept that he blundered and seek a diplomatic settlement via stalled “peace talks”.

Trump’s self-love, not Iran , is global enemy No 1. He’s the principal reason this war is escalating uncontrollably again. He’s a one-man weapon of mass destruction.

There’s a familiar pattern here. Trump went to war without consulting Congress, US allies or the American public. He had no clear plan or long-term strategy. He swallowed dodgy assurances of speedy victory from Israel’s equally dodgy prime minister. His profound ignorance of the military and regional risks was undisturbed by the expert assessments he reportedly ignored . Amazingly, Trump was expecting Iran to capitulate before closing the strait and was “shocked” by its retaliatory attacks on US bases in Gulf states. No one else was. Now he’s all at sea.

This same arrogance and irresponsibility characterised last year’s grandiose 20-point Gaza “peace plan” . None of the key elements – reconstruction, an international stabilisation force, demilitarisation – have advanced, and Trump has mostly lost interest. Hamas has not disarmed, Israeli forces refuse to withdraw from the territory, humanitarian aid is still disrupted and more than 1,000 Palestinians have been killed since October’s “ceasefire”. With no political solution in sight, Gaza exists in a state of no-peace, no-war limbo.

A similar critique applies to Trump’s unhelpful interventions in the Ukraine-Russia war. He never concerned himself with root causes or Vladimir Putin’s dishonourable motives. He favoured what he perceived to be the stronger party and tried to bully Volodymyr Zelenskyy , Ukraine’s president, into quasi-capitulation. When that failed, he petulantly turned his back on Kyiv – although he’s still trying, for reasons only he can explain, to appease the intransigent Putin . Now this pattern of presidential stupidity, impatience and irresponsibility repeats again in Iran.

Unable to extricate himself, Trump is flailing. At the heart of this week’s escalation is June’s “ memorandum of understanding ”, which supposedly froze the conflict for 60 days pending substantive negotiations. Trump hailed the MoU as a personal triumph, but like so many of his deals, it is fatally flawed. Its fifth paragraph appeared to legitimise de facto Iranian control over the strait. Desperate for an off-ramp, Trump agreed to it. Now, as the consequences become clearer, he jibs. Little wonder Tehran doesn’t trust him. Who does?

The damage caused by Trump’s Iran fiasco appears limitless at this point. It is a spectacle of a kind the world has rarely witnessed. Like an alcoholic who takes a drink believing that, this time, the outcome will be different, Trump has resumed daily bombing even though all previous onslaughts failed to produce the desired effect. The more he bombs, the more immoveable the regime becomes, the more conflict intensifies and widens, and the more remote is any chance of resolving the nuclear issue which, the US and Israel claim, is the crux of the matter.

It’s plain that Trump, vowing to impose maritime tolls in the strait and then reversing himself within 24 hours, overseeing attacks on civilian infrastructure that could amount to war crimes, and facing the economically dire prospect of a Red Sea blockade by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis, has no clue how to escape this deepening quagmire. European allies look askance, Washington’s enemies chortle with glee, global markets take fright and the oil price rises again. The US’s reputation and influence in the world diminish with every missile fired. It’s tough being a superpower when no one respects you.

Who will stop Trump? Congress has told him to halt the war or else seek official authorisation. He’s ignoring it. Polls show a majority of Americans are against the whole $100bn, inflation-fuelling mess , yet Trump refuses to listen. Appalled allies, licking their wounds after another tongue-lashing at Nato’s Ankara summit , dare not check him for fear of permanent rupture. Pope Leo tries his valiant best . Prayer may be the only thing left.

Squatting in the Kremlin amid the ruins of his own martial delusions, Putin is only too happy to watch the Americans channel scarce missile interceptors, treasure and energy into another Middle East forever war, far removed from Ukraine. The greater the strains within the western alliance, the better he likes it, especially if – as intelligence reports suspect – Russia plans a large-scale hybrid warfare provocation in Poland or the Baltic republics. And if anyone doubts China’s attitude, just look at last week’s submarine-launched long-range missile test in the South Pacific . Like anxious Japan and Taiwan, President Xi Jinping is closely studying Trump’s theatre of chaos. China is already a huge beneficiary, economically and in terms of soft power leverage. Sooner or later, Xi will cash in militarily.

The Trump conundrum is ultimately one for the American people to resolve. They elected him. They saddled the world with this dangerous monster. It’s they who may ultimately pay the highest price for his depredations. Like Thomas Jefferson and the founding fathers back in 1776, we, the people of the world, hold these truths to be self-evident: far from making America great again, Trump makes it smaller, meaner, unhappier, more divided, isolated and unloved. Urgently needed now: a 2026 declaration of independence from Trump.

Simon Tisdall is a Guardian foreign affairs commentator

Source: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMimwFBVV95cUxONnVRSDVGY2lfLXBGM0xRSEtLWjgtc2hBWURtYjU2WEhnaDlsbWFHcEhpQ0lnN1RlS2MySEtGanpoVnZ1c2lhNF84VEl5MkotUXc0dDVoeC1URHB1bG9Ba2NJNDY5Nm5KcnJPMmIzSkZvOTJHMjBYU1pDSVd0dnpfN1FlYS10WkJnMHVMWWRBckMxWVpOd2pYQVdLZw?oc=5