미국, 이란 학교 폭격 조사 결과 공개 가능성 낮아
Four months after the horrific Iran school bombing, fears grow that Trump and Hegseth will bury the truth - The Guardian
이란 학교 폭격 조사 결과의 공개 지연은 지opolitical 리스크를 높이나, 단기적으로 시장에 큰 영향을 미칠 만한 요인은 아닙니다.
핵심 요약
미국, 이란 학교 폭격 조사 결과 공개하지 않으며 175명 사망 사건의 진실 규명이 어려워질 전망 (175명).
핵심요약
- 이란 학교 폭격 사건으로 175명 사망, 대부분 12세 미만 어린이
- 펜타곤 조사 결과 공개 가능성 낮아, 분류로 은폐될 우려
- 트럼프 대통령, '실수'로 일관하며 책임을 회피
- 헤게세스 장관의 'warfighting' 접근 방식에 대한 테스트 사례
도입
이란 학교 폭격 사건은 미국 군사 작전의 투명성과 책임성에 대한 근본적인 질문을 제기하며, 투자자들에게 지정학적 리스크를 재고할 기회를 제공합니다. 특히 미국과 이란의 긴장 관계는 에너지 시장과 금융 시장에 미칠 수 있는 파장을 고려할 때, 전략적 포트폴리오 조정의 필요성을 강조합니다.
본문 1: 지정학적 리스크의 증대
이란 학교 폭격 사건은 미국 군사 작전의 투명성에 대한 우려를 고조시켰습니다. 175명의 사망자 중 대부분이 어린이라는 점은 국제 사회의 강한 반발을 예상할 수 있게 합니다. 이는 미국과 이란의 관계 악화로 이어질 가능성을 높이며, 에너지 시장의 불안정을 초래할 수 있습니다. 특히 호르무즈 해협의 전략적 중요성과 연계하여, 원유 수송에 대한 리스크가 증가할 전망입니다.
본문 2: 미국 군사 정책의 변화
헤게세스 장관의 'warfighting' 접근 방식은 미국 군사 정책의 근본적인 전환을 나타냅니다. 이 접근 방식은 기존의 신중한 군사 작전을 abandonment하고, 공격적인 군사 전략을 강조합니다. 이는 미국 군사 산업에 대한 수요를 증가시킬 수 있지만, 동시에 국제 사회와의 마찰을 초래할 가능성이 있습니다. 특히 이란과 같은 국가와의 관계에서 이는 더 큰 갈등을 유발할 수 있습니다.
본문 3: 투자 전략의 조정
지정학적 리스크의 증가는 투자자들에게 포트폴리오의 다양화를 고려할 필요가 있음을 강조합니다. 특히 에너지 부문과 군사 산업에 대한 투자에는 신중한 접근이 필요합니다. 또한, 국제 사회의 반응을 고려하여, 특정 지역이나 국가에 집중된 투자보다는 글로벌 포트폴리오를 구성하는 것이 바람직합니다.
결론
이란 학교 폭격 사건은 미국 군사 작전의 투명성과 책임성에 대한 근본적인 질문을 제기하며, 투자자들에게 지정학적 리스크를 재고할 기회를 제공합니다. 헤게세스 장관의 'warfighting' 접근 방식은 미국 군사 정책의 근본적인 전환을 나타내며, 이는 국제 사회와의 마찰을 초래할 가능성이 있습니다. 따라서 투자자들은 포트폴리오의 다양화와 신중한 접근이 필요합니다.
Original Article
Four months after the horrific Iran school bombing, fears grow that Trump and Hegseth will bury the truth - The Guardian
A secretive investigation into the attack that killed at least 175 has reportedly ended. Will its findings see the light of day?
T he attack on a girl’s elementary school in the Iranian town of Minab was one of the US military’s deadliest civilian bombings in decades. But nearly four months on, the Pentagon has produced no answers about why the military fired a Tomahawk cruise missile into a school on the first day of the war, killing at least 175 people, mostly children.
Some critics doubt that the Pentagon ever will, or will bury the results under classifications to keep the worst mistakes secret from the public.
As the US signs a shaky memorandum of understanding on a ceasefire with Iran, the secretive investigation into the attack has also become a test case for the self-styled secretary of war Pete Hegseth’s new approach to what he calls “warfighting”. As he said in early March, nearly two weeks after the attack, “our rules of engagement are bold, precise and designed to unleash American power, not shackle it”.
Shortly after the attack, Donald Trump suggested that it was carried out by Iran. When it became clear that the strike used a US-made Tomahawk missile , he suggested that Iran also had access to the cruise missiles. It does not.
As he celebrated a ceasefire deal to open the Strait of Hormuz last week, Trump signalled he was ready to write off the attack as a mistake. “It’s such a strange question to be asked at this date, because you’re talking about a long time ago,” Trump said when he was asked about the investigation during a press conference at the G7 in Évian-les-Bains, France. “But nobody did that on purpose.”
It was at the beginning of what Trump has taken to calling a “little excursion” into Iran – that the back-to-back or “double tap” strikes on the school building took place, killing mainly children under the age of 12. Officials have told media anonymously that the site was believed to be an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) base.
Mohammadreza Ahmadi Tifakani lost two children in the school bombing. His seven-year-old daughter, Hanieh, was killed, along with all of her classmates in the girl’s section of the school when the first missile hit. According to witnesses, her 10-year-old brother, Sobhan, had survived the initial explosion, but ran back to look for his sister. He was killed in the second blast.
“I personally went to the morgue and identified both of them,” Tifakani told the Guardian in an interview shortly after the attack. “Sobhan was missing an eye, and half of his face was gone. His legs were broken. Hanieh’s skull was fractured, but her face was intact. I recognised Sobhan at first glance, even though he was severely injured.”
“Mistakes are made,” Trump said last week. “The war is nasty.”
Several former Pentagon and national security officials expressed doubt to the Guardian that the US government would take responsibility for the deaths of the schoolchildren in Minab – or even release the full report into the attack.
“It’s very rare that you would have a military operation and not have some incidents where there was a mistaken target and civilians are harmed or killed, but then there is a system for investigating, assessing accountability, and taking responsibility” in those cases, said one former senior Pentagon official.
“Even without the civilian harm mitigation office, there’s a very clear process for this, and I’m very doubtful that the Hegseth Pentagon will follow through,” the former official added.
As part of Hegseth’s “anti-woke” crusade at the Pentagon, the military has shuttered or reduced units meant to review civilian casualty incidents and more broadly indicated that decisions made in combat by “warfighters” would not be subject to such close scrutiny. The reduction in civilian oversight at the Pentagon under Hegseth may make it easier to skirt blame for the incident.
The incident is comparable to some of the worst mass-casualty incidents of past US wars, including the 2017 Mosul airstrike that killed at least 105 and perhaps more than 200 civilians, the 2015 Kunduz hospital airstrike that killed 42 people, and the 1991 Amiriyah air-raid shelter bombing that killed more than 400 Iraqi civilians who were sheltering during Desert Storm.
Trump said last week that the investigation was continuing. US Central Command, when asked about the investigation, gave no new information. “We have no updates at this time,” a defence official wrote.
But media reports indicate that the investigation has concluded. Preliminary results said the attack came because of the US using seven-year-old targeting data that failed to indicate that the building next to an IRGC base was in fact a girls’ school. The New York Times reported last week that at least one analyst had alerted a colleague several years ago that the US appeared to be targeting what was now a school in Minab. But the targeting data was not updated, and military officials continued to revalidate the site as a legitimate target for bombing.
Tifakani said at the time he had little hope of accountability from US investigations or the world. Asked what message he had for legal institutions or investigators into the bombing, he said: “They are witnessing everything themselves. We saw what happened in Gaza and Palestine. Now the same tragedy has befallen our own children. No matter what we say to them, that will not change anything.”
Congressional inquiries into the incident have also been stymied.
“The US strike in Minab is one of the most horrific episodes of the entire illegal Trump war in Iran,” Yassamin Ansari, an Iranian-American congresswoman who represents Arizona’s third district, said. She added that she had written to the Trump administration to demand answers about the strike and “gotten little to no response”.
“Donald Trump is hiding the truth from the American people and Congress, and deflecting blame to Secretary Hegseth, because he does not want the public to know the true horrors of what he unleashed on the Iranian people with absolutely nothing to show for it,” she added. “I will continue to do everything in my power to get answers for the families of these girls.”
Wes Bryant, a former US air force special operations targeting expert and former chief of civilian harm assessments at the Pentagon, said his few remaining colleagues overseeing civilian harm reduction at the Pentagon had been prevented from seeing the preliminary results of the investigation.
“I believe Hegseth and Trump are both going to do everything they can to suppress this investigation,” he said. “So, even if there is one really sitting there, it’s not getting out any more, unless we have, you know, a brave whistleblower.” He added that “the amount of people with eyes on that report are going to be very small”.
Strikes in Iran that had killed thousands of civilians were a sign of the rising “aggregate harm” that the US was willing to accept as part of a culture of that pointed to “pure negligence and recklessness, but also to a degradation of culture at senior leadership levels in the military”.
Early in his tenure as secretary of defence, Hegseth moved to close down or severely reduce civilian oversight of the Pentagon’s civilian harm mitigation and response and a report released in May by the department’s inspector general concluded the US military no longer had the people, tools or infrastructure needed to comply with two federal statutes requiring it to maintain a functioning civilian casualty policy, and operate a Civilian Protection Center of Excellence.