미국-이란 평화협정이 이스라엘의 레바논 군사작전에 미치는 영향
With Iran and the US signing a peace deal, where does that leave Benjamin Netanyahu? - The Conversation
미국과 이란의 평화 협상이 이스라엘의 군사 작전에 대한 지지를 약화시키면서 네타냐후 총리의 입장이 어려워지고 있습니다. 80%의 이스라엘 국민이 전쟁을 지지하지만, 미국과의 관계에 따른 외교적 압력이 증가할 수 있어 단기적인 시장 반응은 중립적으로 예상됩니다.
핵심 요약
이스라엘의 헤즈볼라 전쟁으로 4,000명이 사망하고 100만 명이 추방되었으며, 80%의 이스라엘 국민이 전쟁 지속을 지지합니다.
핵심요약
- 2026년 3월 이후 이스라엘과 헤즈볼라 간 전쟁으로 4,000명 이상의 레바논 인명 피해 발생
- 100만 명의 레바논 주민이 집에서 쫓겨났으며, 베오포트 성 점령으로 남부 레바논 대부분 장악
- 2026년 4월 조사에서 80%의 이스라엘 국민이 전쟁 지속을 지지
- 이스라엘 국방장관은 레바논, 시리아, 가자지구의 주민 추방 및 테러 인프라 제거를 선언
도입
미국과 이란의 평화협정이 이스라엘의 레바논 군사작전에 미치는 영향은 투자자들에게 중요한 지표입니다. 이스라엘의 군사적 성공과 정치적 결정이 중동 지역의 안정성과 경제적 전망에 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있기 때문입니다. 특히 네타뉴 Prime Minister의 결정이 이스라엘의 경제와 시장 동향에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 것은 필수적입니다.
본문 1: 군사적 성공과 정치적 딜레마
이스라엘의 군사적 성공은 베오포트 성 점령과 남부 레바논 장악으로 나타나며, 이는 헤즈볼라의 전통적 강점을 약화시켰습니다. 그러나 4,000명 이상의 인명 피해와 100만 명의 주민 추방은 국제사회의 강한 비판을 초래할 수 있습니다. 네타뉴 Prime Minister는 미국과의 동맹과 군사작전의 균형을 맞추는 어려운 선택을 해야 하며, 이는 이스라엘의 경제적 안보와 시장 안정성에 직접적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.
본문 2: 국내 여론과 장기적 영향
2026년 4월 조사에서 80%의 이스라엘 국민이 전쟁 지속을 지지하는 것은 네타뉴 Prime Minister의 정치적 입지를 강화하지만, 장기적으로는 국제사회의 고립과 경제적 제재 가능성을 높일 수 있습니다. 특히 이스라엘 국방장관의 주민 추방 및 테러 인프라 제거 선언은 중동 지역의 안정성을 위협할 수 있으며, 이는 투자자들에게 큰 리스크를 초래할 수 있습니다.
결론
이스라엘의 군사적 성공과 정치적 결정은 중동 지역의 안정성과 경제적 전망에 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 네타뉴 Prime Minister의 결정이 이스라엘의 경제와 시장 동향에 미치는 영향을 지속적으로 모니터링하는 것은 투자자들에게 필수적입니다. 특히 국제사회의 반응과 장기적 리스크를 고려하여 신중한 투자 결정이 필요합니다.
Original Article
With Iran and the US signing a peace deal, where does that leave Benjamin Netanyahu? - The Conversation
The peace deal between the US and Iran calls not just for the cessation of hostilities between the two countries, but also between Israel and Hezbollah. It also calls for Lebanese territorial integrity and sovereignty to be respected.
This places Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a political conundrum, because ceasing hostilities against Hezbollah runs contrary to his government’s determination to finally crush its nemesis.
Netanyahu now faces difficult decisions. Does he kowtow to the US, Israel’s longstanding ally and security guarantor, in an election year? Or does he defy the US and continue Israel’s military onslaught against Hezbollah?
An answer to these questions seemed to come in part on June 19, when Israel and Hezbollah agreed on yet another ceasefire. However, the next day Israel bombed Lebanon, and Iran once again closed the Strait of Hormuz.
Since the beginning of Israel’s current war against Hezbollah in March 2026, the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) has advanced into southern and eastern Lebanon. In the process, the IDF has pushed Hezbollah out of its traditional strongholds and bombed targets in southern Beirut.
To date, the war has killed more than 4,000 Lebanese people and forced another 1 million to flee their homes. On June 1, IDF units captured the strategically important Beaufort Castle, allowing the IDF to control most of southern Lebanon, including Hezbollah strongholds in the Bekaa Valley in eastern Lebanon.
Within the areas it now occupies, the IDF has issued “don’t come back” orders, forcibly displacing thousands of Lebanese residents from their homes. On June 15, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated , “Israeli forces will remain in the security zones in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza without any time limit” and the zones “would be cleared of local residents and all terror infrastructure including the houses”.
The war is immensely popular in Israel. An April 2026 poll revealed 80% of respondents favoured continuing the war against Hezbollah, even if that created friction with the US. The war’s popularity is crucial for Netanyahu, with national elections due to be held by October. He is desperate to win another term as prime minister to forestall his long-running corruption trial and stifle debates over his culpability for the intelligence failures that lead to Hamas’s devastating October 7 attacks.
In their aftermath, Netanyahu vowed to dramatically change the political landscape of the Middle East. He did this with wars on Hamas, Iran, and Hezbollah.
But while these wars have significantly degraded the ability of his nemeses to threaten Israel, they have not been defeated as promised. This means while Netanyahu has indeed changed the political landscape of the Middle East, his wars have arguably made Israel less, rather than more, secure.
Criticism of Netanyahu’s handling of these wars has been growing, with Opposition politician Yair Golan declaring:
Netanyahu lied. He promised a historic victory and security for generations, and in practice, we got one of the most severe strategic failures Israel has ever known.
Netanyahu needs continuing military successes in Lebanon to sustain his narrative that he is making Israel safer by defeating its enemies.
However, US President Donald Trump is also facing an unfavourable domestic political environment in the lead up to US mid-term elections. Trump needs an end to an unpopular war to try to create a positive political narrative to stave off potentially losing control of the House and the Senate.
He does not want Israeli truculence to make already tense negotiations with Iran harder. For their part, the Iranians have made the cessation of Israel’s war on Hezbollah and its withdrawal from southern Lebanon the central issue in deciding whether to continue negotiating with the US. This is why Iran again closed the vital Strait of Hormuz after Israel bombed Lebanon on the weekend.
So while Israel and the US may be allies, it is not an equal relationship. The geopolitical needs and desires of the US as the great power will always eclipse those of Israel as the middle power.
Therefore, as prime ministerial aspirant Yair Lapid, puts it , Netanyahu faces “either a direct and destructive confrontation with our greatest ally or a submissive surrender of Israeli interests”.
Evidence of how strained the relationship between Trump and Netanyahu is came just before the president signed the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Iran. Trump castigated Netanyahu for ordering the bombing of Hezbollah targets in southern Beirut. He later suggested Syria would do a better job at fighting Hezbollah stating :
I’m not happy with the way Israel has handled themselves with Lebanon and with Hezbollah. It just goes on forever and it throws a negative light on the big deal, and that’s the deal with Iran.
Despite the president’s frustrations there has been push-back from senior Israeli ministers. National Security Minister Ben Gvir said :
The prime minister should have told President Trump: We appreciate you, but Israel is a sovereign and independent state that cannot accept the strengthening, or even the existence, of a terrorist organisation on its borders.
In response US Vice President JD Vance stated bluntly that Israeli critics of the US-Iran deal, “need to wake up and smell the reality of the situation that country is in”.
In other words, Israel needs the US more than the US needs Israel. Israel relies on US financial and military support for its security, with the two allies recently signing their own MoU that guarantees the US giving Israel US$3.8 billion per year, including US$500 million for missile defence.
Israel also needs ongoing US diplomatic support to shield it from any future United Nations Security Council (UNSC) sanctions. These may come from the concurrent investigations by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and International Criminal Court (ICC) into allegations of Israel committing genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity in its wars against Hamas and Hezbollah.
The situation in Lebanon remains highly volatile, the Israeli people are due to cast their votes before October, and the US is finalising a deal with Iran that will likely run contrary to Israel’s interests. The question now is what Israel is going to do about it.