본 분석은 이란의 내부 정치적 불안정성과 국제적 지정학적 갈등이 글로벌 금융 시장에 미치는 영향을 중점적으로 다룹니다. 이란 내에서 벌어지는 반체제 탄압과 해외에서의 인권 탄압 사례는 단순한 지역 이슈가 아니라, 국제 제재의 효과, 에너지 시장의 안정성, 그리고 글로벌 공급망의 취약성을 평가하는 데 있어 핵심적인 변수로 작용합니다.

첫째, 지정학적 리스크가 에너지 시장에 미치는 영향입니다. 이란은 세계 주요 석유 및 가스 생산국 중 하나이므로, 이란 내의 불안정성은 국제 유가 및 천연가스 가격에 즉각적인 영향을 미칩니다. 이란과 외부 세력 간의 갈등이 심화될수록, 공급망의 중단 위험과 제재의 불확실성이 가격에 반영되어 인플레이션 압력과 에너지 시장의 변동성을 키웁니다. 투자자들은 이러한 에너지 가격 변동성을 예측할 때, 단순히 이란의 정치적 상황뿐만 아니라, 미국과 이란 간의 전략적 관계, 그리고 국제 제재의 실행력을 종합적으로 고려해야 합니다.

둘째, 글로벌 공급망의 재편과 리스크 프리미엄입니다. 국제 분쟁이 확대되면, 원자재 및 핵심 산업 제품의 이동 경로가 변경되고, 이는 글로벌 공급망의 효율성과 안정성에 영향을 미칩니다. 이란을 둘러싼 갈등은 특정 자원의 수출입에 제약을 가하거나, 새로운 무역 경로를 형성하게 하여 글로벌 산업의 비용 구조를 변화시킵니다. 이러한 변화는 특정 산업 섹터에 대한 투자 매력도에 영향을 미치며, 지정학적 리스크 프리미엄이 자산 가격에 반영되는 메커니즘을 이해하는 것이 중요합니다.

셋째, 국제 규범과 정책의 일관성 문제입니다. 해외에서의 반체제 탄압 사례는 서방 국가들이 국제 인권 및 안보 규범을 어떻게 적용하고 집행하는지에 대한 도전을 제기합니다. 이는 국제 사회의 정책 일관성과 제재 시스템의 효과에 대한 의문을 제기하며, 이는 장기적인 국제 관계의 안정성에 영향을 미칩니다. 투자자들은 각국의 외교 정책이 실제 현장에서 어떻게 작동하는지를 분석하여, 잠재적인 정책 변화에 따른 시장 반응을 예측해야 합니다.

결론적으로, 이란 관련 지정학적 리스크는 단기적인 시장 변동성을 유발할 뿐만 아니라, 에너지 및 공급망 분야에 구조적인 불확실성을 추가합니다. 따라서 투자 전략은 이러한 비대칭적 갈등의 장기적 추세를 분석하고, 에너지 및 지정학적 리스크에 대한 헤지 전략을 포함하는 포괄적인 접근 방식을 채택해야 할 것입니다. 우리는 이러한 복합적인 요인들이 글로벌 경제 환경에 미치는 장기적인 파급 효과를 지속적으로 모니터링할 필요가 있습니다.

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Iran Is Still Fighting a War Against Dissidents Abroad - Foreign Policy

Iranians in Europe say governments aren’t taking threats from Tehran seriously.

A framed photograph of Soran Mansournia’s younger brother, Borhan, sits on a bookshelf in his office in the Dutch city of Groningen. The picture was taken in Iran’s Kurdistan province in August 2019; Borhan is seen smiling and surrounded by trees. Three months later, the 28-year-old was shot dead while standing next to Mansournia at an anti-government protest in the city of Kermanshah.

“He was a very close friend of mine—he wasn’t just a brother,” Mansournia said of Borhan. “We knew every detail of each other’s lives.”

Iranian security forces are alleged to have killed at least 323 people in a nationwide crackdown over five days in November 2019, according to an investigation by Amnesty International and the Hertie School. The protests began after the government announced significant fuel price increases, but they quickly turned into a broader expression of discontent with the regime.

After Borhan’s death, Mansournia says he was interrogated 24 times by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the elite military organization that reports directly to Iran’s supreme leader. In 2021, Mansournia left Iran for a job as a lecturer at the University of Groningen. He continued his activism for human rights in Iran from abroad, regularly posting on social media and speaking at rallies.

But Mansournia, who is now 36, has also faced a relentless wave of threats, harassment, and intimidation by people he believes are linked to the Iranian regime. After the start of the Iran war in February, it got worse, he said.

As conflict among Iran, Israel, and the United States escalated in the last year, so did Iranian transnational repression in Europe. In March, a man of Iranian descent who was a vocal regime critic was shot and seriously injured in the Dutch city of Schoonhoven. Dutch Justice and Security Minister David van Weel said he could not rule out the possibility that Iran was behind the attack.

Iranian dissidents in Europe say they are growing more fearful—and they don’t think their host governments are taking threats from Tehran seriously.

In 2022, after giving a speech at a rally in The Hague during the “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests, Mansournia said he caught someone trailing him as he walked around the city with his partner. Three weeks later, Iran’s intelligence service showed his partner’s parents in Iran a video of them, he said.

Mansournia has been under Dutch police surveillance for his protection since the 12-day war between Israel and Iran last year, although “they’re not doing enough,” he said. In the last 10 months, the police have checked the security of his office twice and his home once, he said, and installed an application on his phone to track him. They told him they could take him to a safe house in the Netherlands—but only if he reduced his activism, he said. “I said, ‘If I do that, I don’t need your protection, and actually the regime wants this,’” he recalled telling authorities.

On April 9, Mansournia received a call from a French number, he said. A man speaking Farsi told him: “Watch yourself because we are watching you. We will come to you soon,” according to Mansournia. He said, “It was terrifying. I’ve received many threats from the regime before, but it was the first time that they called me directly.” He believes that the caller was an Iranian agent.

Mansournia said he has also received scam emails inviting him to fake conferences as well as phishing emails sent to his colleagues falsely accusing him of online harassment. A couple of days after the April phone call, the Iranian government posted Mansournia’s contact details online and wrote that he had “betrayed the country.”

All these threats have made him more careful in his daily life. He uses different routes to and from work and is planning to move in with a friend for a few months. “I really don’t know why [the Dutch government and the European Union] don’t take the regime’s long arms seriously,” Mansournia said.

A Iranian woman holds a placard with the slogan “Women, Life, Freedom” during a demonstration at The Hague on Nov. 19, 2022. Ana Fernandez/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

The EU officially proscribed the IRGC as a terrorist organization on Feb. 19, but Iran’s threats and violence against dissidents abroad long predate that designation. In 2019, Dutch intelligence agencies found “ strong indications ” that Iran had orchestrated the assassinations in 2015 and 2017, respectively, of two Dutch citizens who were Iranian dissidents.

EU counterterrorism coordinator Bartjan Wegter said Iran’s hybrid warfare tactics to silence dissidents have intensified in the last few years, including via cybersurveillance, blackmailing, assassination attempts, and relying on criminal groups “to allow for deniability.” Now, the terrorist designation “gives access to a toolbox of sanctions through asset freezes and limiting visas, limiting travel possibilities for people linked with the IRGC,” he said.

“If people feel unsafe, we have to take that seriously,” Wegter said. “Dissidents are both a target but also I would argue an important source of information for our law enforcement and therefore also for our policymakers at [the] EU level.”

Another common repressive tactic used by the Iranian regime is coercion by proxy, in which a person’s family in Iran is harassed, threatened, detained, or killed to apply pressure to dissidents. Ali, a 57-year-old Iranian journalist based in France who declined to provide his last name or precise location because of his fears of reprisals against his family, said his relatives in Iran had received threats and that his wife had to leave home for a while as a result.

“They want to make you retreat,” Ali said. “But there’s a kind of understanding between me and my family … because absolute silence wouldn’t help a poor nation who are brutally suppressed by a fanatic, totalitarian religious regime.”

Ali fled Tehran in 2024 after writing articles he called “mildly critical” of the regime and helping foreign journalists speak to ordinary Iranians and former political prisoners during the Woman, Life, Freedom protests. He vowed to continue reporting on his homeland despite the risks that Iranian journalists face in exile.

Vahid Beheshti outside his camp by the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office in central London on April 22, 2026 Jessie Williams photo for Foreign Policy

The Islamic Republic’s repression stretches beyond the continent. In 2024, Pouria Zeraati, who worked for the U.K.-based Persian-language news channel Iran International, was stabbed outside his home in London after receiving multiple threats from Iranian authorities. He moved to Israel after saying he no longer felt safe in the U.K.

A report by Reporters Without Borders published three weeks after he was stabbed revealed an “unprecedented” level of transnational threat to Iranian journalists in the country, with London seen as a hot spot. The British government was not doing enough to address the threats, the report concluded.

That is still the feeling for many Iranian dissidents in the U.K., according to Vahid Beheshti, 49, an Iranian human rights activist and the founder of the anti-regime group Iran Front who has lived in the country for the last 28 years. For more than three years, he has protested from a tent adorned with Iran’s prerevolution flag across from the Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office (FCDO) in London.

Beheshti is calling on the British government to officially designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization, as the EU did. The U.K. sanctioned the IRGC in its “entirety” in December 2022, but proscribing it would provide law enforcement with stronger powers, such as criminalizing membership and support of the group. Beheshti was hospitalized in May 2023 following a 72-day hunger strike; he was moved to a safe house for a week after he said a regime cleric had issued a fatwa against him .

“You think, next it’s going to be me,” Beheshti said of the recent suspected Iranian attacks against dissidents abroad. His friend Masood Masjoody was killed this year in Canada in an attack that authorities say was “targeted”; the pair accused of his murder reportedly opposed the Iranian regime and backed the monarchist movement in online posts. Masjoody’s face is pictured in a corner of Beheshti’s camp, alongside photos of Iranians killed by the regime.

Beheshti said threats from the Iranian regime intensified after he visited Israel in January 2024, where he spoke in the Knesset and told Israeli politicians not to be afraid of attacking sites inside Iran. He showed Foreign Policy a photo of himself with a red target on his face that was shared on one of the IRGC’s main Telegram channels this March.

Beheshti points to a phone displaying a photo with a red target on his face, which was shared on one of the IRGC’s main Telegram channels in March. Photo taken on April 22, 2026. Jessie Williams photo for Foreign Policy

British police have provided Beheshti with only a metal barrier around his camp for protection, he said. Officers from the London Metropolitan Police’s counterterrorism unit warned Beheshti three weeks after the Iran war began that the threat level against him had been raised, telling him to leave the camp. He insists it is the safest place for him: “I know it’s not going to be safe for me if I go home” to Coventry, the town about 100 miles away that is his official residence, he said.

On April 15, a post on the Telegram channel of the Iranian Embassy in London urged Iranians residing in the U.K. to “sacrifice [their] lives” and become martyrs for the regime. The post concluded by saying, “Let us all surrender to killing rather than handing over the country to the enemy.” In response, the FCDO summoned the Iranian ambassador for “unacceptable and inflammatory” comments.

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