핵심요약

• 펜타곤의 전쟁 비용은 약 400억 달러이며, 추가 예산 요청은 800억 달러입니다
• 탄약 비용만 260억 달러에 달합니다
• 13명의 미국 군인과 7,500명 이상의 민간인이 사망했습니다
• 트럼프 대통령은 전쟁의 종료를 선언했지만, 객관적인 분석은 복잡한 결과를 보입니다

도입

이번 분석은 미국-이란 전쟁이 펜타곤과 미국 경제에 미친 영향을 심층적으로 탐구합니다. 전쟁 비용이 예산에 미치는 영향과 장기적인 경제적 파장을 이해하는 것은 투자자들에게 중요한 과제입니다. 특히, 전쟁이 끝났지만 그 여파가 여전히 지속되고 있다는 점에서 주의가 필요합니다.

본문 1: 전쟁 비용의 경제적 영향

펜타곤의 전쟁 비용이 400억 달러에 달한다는 점은 미국 예산에 큰 부담을 줄 수 있습니다. 이 비용은 탄약, 파괴된 장비, 그리고 시설 피해를 포함하지만, 운영 비용은 포함되지 않습니다. 이는 미국 정부의 재정 상태에 영향을 미칠 수 있으며, 향후 예산 계획에 변화를 가져올 가능성이 있습니다. 특히, 추가 예산 요청이 800억 달러에 달한다는 점은 정부가 전쟁 비용을 감당하기 위해 추가적인 재원 조달이 필요함을 시사합니다.

본문 2: 전쟁의 장기적인 경제적 파장

전쟁이 끝났지만, 그 여파는 여전히 지속될 수 있습니다. 예를 들어, 전쟁으로 인한 인프라 피해와 경제 활동의 중단은 지역 경제에 장기적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 또한, 전쟁이 끝난 후에도 안보 위협이 지속될 경우, 미국은 추가적인 군사 비용을 감당해야 할 가능성이 있습니다. 이는 미국 경제의 안정성에 영향을 미칠 수 있으며, 투자자들에게는 주의가 필요합니다.

본문 3: 국제적 관계의 변화

미국-이란 전쟁은 국제적 관계에 큰 변화를 가져왔습니다. 특히, 중동 지역에서의 안보 상황은 변화할 수 있으며, 이는 에너지 시장에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 또한, 미국과 이란 간의 협상이 계속될 경우, 국제적 관계의 변화가 경제에 미치는 영향을 고려해야 합니다. 이는 투자자들에게는 새로운 기회와 위험을 동시에 제공할 수 있습니다.

결론

이번 분석을 통해 미국-이란 전쟁이 펜타곤과 미국 경제에 미친 영향을 이해할 수 있었습니다. 전쟁 비용이 예산에 미치는 영향과 장기적인 경제적 파장을 고려할 때, 투자자들에게는 주의가 필요합니다. 향후 국제적 관계의 변화와 에너지 시장의 동향을 주시하는 것이 중요합니다.

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원문 링크: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMidEFVX3lxTE9Vd2dPd1hlRGZpTGtOMjNUVm84WVdtTFM4a3d3Q0s0U1E3Mi01Wk9kMWtzdFN4WjMtNk1hZG5uT0IwanhYaVVFbk1OTzZQbDQtbUxLaEU2UWl0d3Ffb2szOXVvaTIzcWtfSmZ2a28zMGR3b1ht?oc=5

What the Iran war cost the Pentagon, the economy — and Trump - CNN

With an agreement signed and further talks set to commence, the US war with Iran is at a halt, at least for now, and President Donald Trump is telling Americans they have won. “’YOU’RE WELCOME!” Trump wrote on Thursday in a post on his social media platform, where he also ticked through benefits of his memorandum of understanding to keep negotiating with Iran for the next 60 days. “OIL IS FLOWING, IRAN CAN NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON (THE WORLD WILL BE SAFE!), THE STOCK MARKETS ARE ROARING, JOBS ARE AT RECORDS, AND PRICES ARE DROPPING (AFFORDABILITY!). OUR COUNTRY IS STRONG, SAFE, AND RESPECTED LIKE NEVER BEFORE,” Trump said. But an objective analysis of what has changed after more than 100 days of the conflict, in which 13 American service members lost their lives along with more than 7,500 civilians in the region, suggests a more nuanced story than the one Trump put in all caps. Here are some of the big numbers and trends that draw a fuller picture of how the war affected the US: The sticker price of the war is around $40 billion, but the total price is much higher The conflict cost the Department of Defense is about $40 billion, according to preliminary numbers from an upcoming analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The figure includes cost of munitions, destroyed equipment and damage to bases, but does not incorporate operational costs that were already factored into the department’s more than $1 trillion fiscal year 2026 budget, Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at CSIS, told CNN. The Pentagon has submitted a request for $80 billion in supplemental funding, two US government sources told CNN. Less than $20 billion of that total request is related to immediate needs from the Iran war, according to one source, who added that the figure does not include costs like repairs to facilities and US basing in the region. That includes around $26 billion spent on munitions Munitions were the largest expenditure, Cancian said, adding that there was a “high use” of weapons that were long-range, highly sophisticated and expensive. For example, a Tomahawk missile costs around $2.5 million, and the US used about a thousand of them, according to Cancian. The war put a strain on the US’ stockpile of weapons Experts and officials tell CNN that the military used significant portions of key missile inventory. Trump invoked the Defense Production Act earlier in June to force defense companies to manufacture more weapons. The daily cost of the war waned as it went on with less frequent strikes and decreased use of expensive weapons, according to CSIS, which estimated that the first 100 hours of the war cost $3.7 billion. On day 12, the cumulative cost was around $16.5 billion, the think tank found. While the Defense Department bore the brunt of the expenses, the conflict cost other agencies, such as Homeland Security and Veterans Affairs, $1 billion, according to CSIS’ preliminary numbers. Approximately $165 million of that was related to “higher fuel prices,” Cancian said. Gas prices are still up The war drove the price of gas up, a bitter pill for Trump, who has made reliance on fossil fuels drilling a key part of his agenda. But while the US has been the top oil and gas producer for years, the market is complex and worldwide. Gas prices rose from an average of less than $3 per gallon around the country to well more than $4 during much of the war. Now that oil traffic is set to flow again through the Strait of Hormuz, look for prices to come down. But it will likely take time. The US average was $3.97 a gallon on Friday. On Thursday, it dropped below $4 for the first time since March 30. According to an energy cost tracker from Brown University, American households have spent more than $253 more than what they would have paid if there was no war. Diesel is up even more, which has a knock-on effect Everyday Americans have been feeling the pinch of gas prices, but farmers and shippers have been feeling the pinch from diesel. The average price was about $3.80 before the war started. It is over $5 as of June 15, which is down from earlier in the war. Brown University’s energy cost tracker found that due to the increased price, Americans spent nearly $27.1 billion extra for diesel. The war also drove up the price of fertilizer, which could have a long-term effect on farming. The strategic petroleum reserve is at its lowest level since 1983 The nation’s emergency reserve of oil, kept in salt caverns in the gulf coast, has been depleted both by the Biden administration as a result of Russia’s war on Ukraine and the Trump administration as a result of Trump’s war on Iran. As CNN’s Matt Egan reported, the reserve is now at its lowest level since 1983, when it was first being filled during the Reagan administration. The world has lost 1.15 billion barrels of oil supply Oil hasn’t been coming out of the Middle East for nearly four months. All told, the world lost 1.15 billion barrels of oil supply during the war, according to Kpler. So, the world has been taking crude from just about everywhere else it can get some. Venezuela and Brazil ramped up production. The United States sent loads of jet fuel to Europe and diesel to Australia. The Trump administration de-sanctioned hundreds of millions of barrels of Russian and Iranian oil. And 32 countries coordinated the largest release of emergency oil stockpiles in history. That still wasn’t enough. So oil companies started drawing from their own supplies to satisfy their customers’ demand. The tanks in Cushing, Oklahoma, are running out of oil A critical oil hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, which pipes fuel all around the United States, just hit its operational stress level – the equivalent of when the coffee drops below the spigot and you need to tip the urn to get the last bits of sludge into your mug. Much of what collects at the bottom of an oil tank is unusable gunk, making it hard to maintain pressure in the pipes to get oil out to customers. The US Energy Information Administration reported last week that Cushing had just 20 million barrels of oil left in its tanks. That’s a problem that Trump acknowledged Wednesday at the G7 in Versailles. “You want to see bedlam?” Trump said. “We run out of reserves in about four weeks.” Inflation is up Trump has struggled to find a compelling political argument to explain why his policies have helped drive up prices. He has at times said the idea of “affordability” is a hoax. More recently, he said, “I love the inflation,” arguing it could be much worse and that when the war ended “it’s going to come down like a rock.” But there’s a difference between inflation coming down, which means prices don’t rise as quickly, and prices actually falling. Annual inflation was over 4% for the first time in three years, driven by those energy prices, according to recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s far from the highs of the Covid years, but double what the Federal Reserve generally wants to see before it lowers interest rates. The persistently high inflation helps explain why the Fed declined to cut rates last week, as Trump wants, despite now being led by his hand-picked Chairman Kevin Warsh. But prices are now rising faster than the average American paycheck grew over the past year. In other words: Inflation ate your pay raise in April and May, the first time that had happened since 2023. Consumer confidence is up a tick, but still near historic lows There is some evidence of optimism among Americans. After three consecutive months falling, consumer sentiment rose in June, according to a long-running survey conducted by the University of Michigan. But it is still well below historic averages. The general lack of confidence is not just a result of the war, as CNN’s Bryan Mena wrote. Stocks are up Market indices dipped in the immediate aftermath of the war, but Trump can continue to brag (and repeatedly has) that markets have continued to set records despite the war. Americans might be generally pessimistic about the economy in part as a result of inflation and rising gas prices caused by the war, but investors remain committed. Add in some big ticket IPOs from SpaceX and in the AI sector and, despite the war, people who feel good about their 401k balance if they’re lucky enough to have one. Bonds are way down Bonds have been selling off because of growing inflation concerns because of rising gas prices during the war. That sent the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield to its highest level in more than a year in May, before it fell back a bit. The 10-year yield influences consumer loan rates, including credit cards, auto loans and home mortgages. Mortgage rates are way up The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.47% last week, down from 6.52% the previous week, which was near the year’s high, according to Freddie Mac. Higher bond yields have pushed mortgage rates higher, keeping the housing market frozen and preventing people who can’t afford the American Dream from achieving it. Rates may continue to rise: Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh in his first meeting as chair last week said that the central bank would make a stronger push to get price hikes in check. The market now expects the Fed to hike rates later this year, potentially raising mortgage rates along with it. Trump’s approval rating is down. But it was already extremely low The president has a committed core of supporters, but most of the country disapproves of how he’s handling his job. As a result, his rating was already dipping below 40% before the war started. Just 38% of Americans approved of Trump’s job performance in February. That figure is at 37%, as of June 15, according to CNN’s Poll of Polls. Trump’s handling of the war and of the economy are similarly under water, according to a recent Fox News poll, in which 31% of registered voters approved of his handling of the economy and 35% approved of his handling of Iran. CNN’s Haley Britzky contributed to this report.

Source: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMidEFVX3lxTE9Vd2dPd1hlRGZpTGtOMjNUVm84WVdtTFM4a3d3Q0s0U1E3Mi01Wk9kMWtzdFN4WjMtNk1hZG5uT0IwanhYaVVFbk1OTzZQbDQtbUxLaEU2UWl0d3Ffb2szOXVvaTIzcWtfSmZ2a28zMGR3b1ht?oc=5