핵심요약

• 40일간의 전쟁 기간 동안 경찰서, 형사 수사국(Agahi), 바지지(Basij) 기지 등 법 집행 시설이 표적이 되었습니다.
• 이러한 시설들은 주거 절도, 폭행 등 일상적인 시민 사건들을 처리하는 역할을 수행했습니다.
• 시민들은 전쟁 중 법 집행 및 사법 절차를 경험했으며, 이는 사회적 불안정성을 반영합니다.
• 개인적인 경험 사례는 전쟁과 시위 발생 시점의 시간적 연관성을 보여줍니다.

도입

본 기사는 이란 내 전쟁 상황이 치안 및 일상적인 시민 생활에 미친 영향을 다루고 있습니다. 이는 단순히 인도주의적 문제를 넘어, 지정학적 불안정성이 국내 사회 시스템과 경제 활동에 미치는 위험을 투자자가 평가해야 하는 중요한 맥락을 제공합니다. 투자자들은 이러한 사회적 불안정성이 궁극적으로 시장의 변동성과 리스크 프리미엄에 어떻게 반영될지 주목해야 합니다.

본문 1: 지정학적 충돌이 사회 시스템에 미친 영향

40일간의 전쟁 동안 미국과 이스라엘의 공습은 이란의 법 집행 기관과 기반 시설을 직접적으로 표적으로 삼았습니다. 이는 국가 안보 문제에 국한되지 않고, 일상적인 치안 유지 및 시민 서비스 제공을 담당하던 시스템 전체가 혼란에 빠졌음을 의미합니다. 경찰서나 수사국 같은 기관이 파괴되거나 기능이 마비될 경우, 범죄 예방 및 법치 시스템의 신뢰도가 급격히 하락하게 됩니다. 이는 곧 사회적 자본의 붕괴로 이어지며, 이는 장기적인 경제 안정성을 저해하는 핵심 요인입니다.

본문 2: 사회적 불안정성과 경제적 리스크의 연관성

기사의 사례는 전쟁과 같은 극심한 지정학적 충돌이 일상적인 범죄율 증가와 사법 절차의 지연으로 직결됨을 보여줍니다. 개인의 경험처럼, 법 집행의 공백은 사회적 불안정성을 심화시키고, 이는 잠재적인 경제적 리스크로 전환됩니다. 불안정한 환경은 외국인 직접 투자(FDI) 유치에 부정적인 영향을 미치며, 공급망의 안정성을 위협하고, 잠재적인 인플레이션 압력을 높이는 요인으로 작용합니다. 특히, 국내 치안이 불안정해지면 경제 주체들의 활동 제약이 커지고, 이는 자본 이동의 불확실성을 증가시켜 시장의 변동성을 확대시킵니다.

본문 3: 장기적 전망과 투자 시사점

이러한 사건들은 단기적인 충돌의 결과일 뿐만 아니라, 이란 경제의 장기적인 회복력과 안정성에 대한 근본적인 질문을 던집니다. 향후 이란 경제가 안정화되기 위해서는 지정학적 위험 감소와 함께 국내 법치 시스템의 회복이 필수적입니다. 투자 관점에서 볼 때, 이러한 사회적 리스크는 지역 전체의 위험 프리미엄을 높이는 요인으로 작용할 수 있습니다. 따라서 투자 전략을 수립할 때, 단기적인 군사적 움직임뿐만 아니라, 내부 정치적 안정성과 법치 시스템의 복원력이라는 거시적 변수를 반드시 고려해야 합니다.

결론

결론적으로, 이란 내 전쟁으로 인한 치안 및 법 집행 시스템의 붕괴는 단순한 사회적 사건이 아니라, 지정학적 충돌이 경제적 안정성에 미치는 직접적인 영향을 보여주는 지표입니다. 투자자들은 이러한 사회적 불안정성이 시장 변동성과 리스크를 어떻게 증폭시키는지 분석해야 하며, 향후 이란 경제의 회복 전망을 판단할 때 정치적 안정성과 법치 시스템의 복원력을 핵심적인 관점으로 삼아야 할 것입니다. 향후 지역 경제의 움직임은 이러한 내부 안정화 과정에 따라 결정될 가능성이 높습니다.

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원문 링크: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinAFBVV95cUxNMVV3OXc1NUtaU1dVRnhZVFl0a2xvRmF0cXR2RGdBM3RyR3o0WFFjd0JkOHRHc2lfLVpQVmM5TVJ6d3lSTE1XRTFGMVAzellvbG0xaG9jOGhPLUdkTTRqSUhfa1V5ZnNxYjh1RmVXNEtMY0ZvNDY2bS03cnVCeE9YRXcxVnFoMi16VF81dVFmNjZNZ2lRMHpNWnpYMjI?oc=5

‘What System?’: Iranians Say Crime Is Soaring After The War - IranWire

During the 40-day war and the missile and drone strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran, many police stations, criminal investigation bureaus (Agahi), Basij bases, and checkpoints were targeted. Many of these locations played active roles in suppressing street protests; however, they also handled routine civic cases such as home burglaries, mobile phone thefts, purse snatchings, street brawls, and harassment complaints.

Following the destruction of these law enforcement buildings, the Islamic Republic’s police force claimed that “the people’s business will not be left hanging” and that urban “service desks” and “police trailers” set up across cities would address and handle citizens’ legal needs. In interviews with IranWire, citizens shared their firsthand accounts of pursuing law enforcement cases during and after the war.

“Roya” lives in Tehran. Late last autumn, while heading home from work, a brief lapse in attention left her at the mercy of a skilled thief: “I had parked by the sidewalk and was waiting for my husband. Out of nowhere, a thief on a motorcycle rode past, snatched my phone right out of my hand while I was talking to my husband, and sped off. It all happened so fast I couldn’t even scream.”

Roya immediately went to the local police station in the neighborhood where the theft occurred to file a case: “A few days later, in early December, my phone was turned on. I tracked its location to somewhere in southern Iran. We went to the area. We asked a shopkeeper at the end of the street where the market for stolen phones was, and he pointed us to a specific street without any fear or hesitation. It was exactly where my phone had pinged. I went back to the police station and reported it, but by the time the suspect’s arrest warrant was issued, the January protests broke out, followed directly by the war.”

In the middle of the war, Roya received a court summons: “When I went to the court, the judge told me, ‘I issued the warrant for this thief back in January; I don’t know why they haven’t arrested him yet. Take this warrant, go to the investigation bureau, and tell them to take action.’”

Roya went to the address registered on the warrant: “Everyone was sitting out in the street. I asked one of the officers where the investigation bureau was, and they pointed to an alley, saying, ‘Right next to the L90.’ I thought I had misheard. Then I saw that the investigation officers were actually sitting inside a Renault L90 car. An officer asked me what was wrong, and I told him my case file was in the system. He laughed and said, ‘What case? What system? Can’t you see our situation?’ Ultimately, I was forced to rewrite the entire narrative and chronological details of my case on a piece of paper they handed me.”

Since then, not only has her phone not been found and the suspect not been arrested, but it also remains unclear how the thief learned about the judicial proceedings against him: “He has broken my car windows twice now, stealing only tissues, cigarettes, and a lighter. He hasn’t touched anything valuable. The only thing that comes to mind is that someone at the investigation bureau tipped him off that I am tracking my phone. My phone ended up in Afghanistan, while Mr. Thief walks scot-free on the streets of Tehran, leaving me shaking with fear.”

“The Situation Was Always Bad; Now It’s Even Worse”

“It was before the war. In September 2025, one of my neighbors, who was drunk, attacked me and my car. Despite never having set foot in a police station before, I was forced to file a complaint against him. Their administrative workflow nearly drove me insane. Just think about it: this complaint dragged on from September until now, June 2026. The verdict was issued just two or three days ago.”

This is part of the account shared by “Somayeh.” She tells IranWire: “I don’t know if it’s always like this or if it was just the specific branch I had to deal with. At no stage did anyone know what the next step was. I constantly had to stay alert or ask around about what needed to be done.”

Somayeh says that throughout the case-tracking process, she constantly had to prompt the officer in charge: “They provided absolutely no guidance on what to do next. They just kept saying, ‘Wait, we will inform you.’ Every time the case progressed a step, I would find out either via a phone call or through the Sana electronic judicial notification system, but each step took at least a month. Now, after nine months, a verdict has arrived, and they are still telling me it isn’t final. What’s even funnier is that right now, nobody knows what needs to be done after a verdict is officially issued.”

She notes that even when she went to receive the written verdict, everyone had a different opinion on how to proceed: “Nothing was written in the electronic notification about what my next move should be. Right there, one person told me to wait until they contacted me for the execution of the sentence, while another told me to take the verdict to the Judicial Services Office to log it for the enforcement bureau. I went to ask the Judicial Services Office, and they said they had no idea. The issued verdict simply states that the individual I complained against has one full lunar year to compensate for the damages.”

Police Stations Are Effectively Doing Nothing

“Soraya” is a defense attorney. Due to her work managing cases for her clients, she frequently visited the criminal investigation bureaus (Agahi) and police stations both before and after the war.

When asked about the handling of theft cases at police stations, Soraya says, “The police stations are effectively doing nothing. I had a case where a mother and daughter were robbed on the road from Parand to Robat Karim. The driver of a passenger vehicle dropped them off in the middle of nowhere and stole their phones, gold jewelry, cash, and the items they had just bought. When they filed a complaint, the investigation bureau told them, ‘Go home for now; if we catch this thief and he confesses to stealing your property, we will let you know.’ The poor woman actually had the car’s license plate number, but it was naturally distorted. The officer at the station explicitly told them, ‘Do you honestly think I’m going to go out into the street to look for your thief?’”

She explains that the responsiveness of the police has always been weak, but it has worsened significantly now: “I have a client who registered a complaint on March 5, 2026, and absolutely nothing happened until April 4. They blamed it on wartime conditions, but we have experienced this in previous years as well. At the end of the Persian calendar year, practically no steps are ever taken in these cases.”

Soraya says that when she followed up on this particular case on April 4, she was forced to redo everything from the beginning, as if no action had been taken a month earlier.

She had a similar experience with another case involving illegal logging and the unauthorized sale of property: “I filed the complaint under a force majeure designation and received an order for it to be registered in the branch. I waited for two days in those chaotic conditions just to see the investigator. The investigator told me, ‘My communication with the officers is down. I can’t do anything.’ He openly told me, ‘The country is at war, and you’re worried about some wood? Until conditions calm down and my connection with the officers is re-established, this case will not move forward.’”

According to Soraya, losing a petitioner’s case file or having work stall and go undone is entirely normal and routine within the structure of police stations and the investigation bureau: “I am aware that during the war, they had standing orders not to execute any arrest warrants—whether the target was a smuggler, a financial fraudster, or an armed thief. Arrest warrants were simply not being issued, and even if they were, the police stations lacked the manpower.”

The defense attorney notes that exceptions do exist: “In police stations, even during wartime conditions, bribery, connections, and cronyism are what always get things done. During the war, some people might have resolved their issues through these exact methods, but otherwise, the routine was exactly as I described.”

“They Stole My Phone Right in Front of the Police Station”

One of the areas in Tehran that has always been under tight security is the Pasteur district, the perimeter surrounding the building known as the “Beit-e Rahbari” and the residence of Ali Khamenei. Following the bombing of this location and the death of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, a large number of law enforcement officers and plainclothes agents were deployed to this area and its surrounding streets. “Ali” is a citizen who had a bizarre encounter with the police in the days after the war.

He tells IranWire: “I was riding my motorcycle down Keshvardoost Street when a law enforcement officer ordered me to stop. When I pulled over, even though I had done nothing wrong, he used his walkie-talkie and said, ‘This guy is suspicious,’ and they detained me. They confiscated my phone and motorcycle and took me to the police station. They interrogated me in a hundred different ways until evening, and finally, when they saw I had no record and had done nothing wrong, they let me go. Right at the entrance of the police station, right before their eyes, the moment they handed back my phone and I took a single step away, someone snatched my phone and ran.”

Ali says this incident happened just paces away from the police station building. “I turned right back around and told them what had happened. Their officer said, ‘The country is at war, do you expect me to deploy forces to go look for a thief?’ I replied, ‘You detained me since this morning over absolutely nothing, and you had the time and manpower for that, but now that I am registering a theft complaint, you don’t have the time or manpower?’” He notes that he ultimately registered a complaint that he is certain will never lead anywhere.

Official statistics and law enforcement reports in 2026 indicate a deeply concerning 31% increase in registered theft cases nationwide. In response to these conditions, the FARAJA Criminal Investigation Police and law enforcement agencies claim they have placed extensive measures on their agenda to confront thieves and reduce crime.

Social and economic experts point to factors such as expanding poverty, inflation, and unemployment as the primary drivers behind the upward trajectory of thefts in recent years.

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Source: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMinAFBVV95cUxNMVV3OXc1NUtaU1dVRnhZVFl0a2xvRmF0cXR2RGdBM3RyR3o0WFFjd0JkOHRHc2lfLVpQVmM5TVJ6d3lSTE1XRTFGMVAzellvbG0xaG9jOGhPLUdkTTRqSUhfa1V5ZnNxYjh1RmVXNEtMY0ZvNDY2bS03cnVCeE9YRXcxVnFoMi16VF81dVFmNjZNZ2lRMHpNWnpYMjI?oc=5