핵심요약

• 브렌트 유가 이번 주 10% 하락하며 72달러 마감
• 호르무즈 해협 통행량 1600만 배럴로 증가
• 이라크, OPEC 탈퇴 검토 중
• 중국의 이란 원유 수입 재개 검토

도입

이번 주 브렌트 유가의 급락과 호르무즈 해협의 통행량 회복은 에너지 시장에 중대한 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 이라크의 OPEC 탈퇴 가능성과 중국의 이란 원유 수입 재개 검토는 추가적인 시장 변동성을 예상하게 합니다.

본문 1: 호르무즈 해협 통행량 회복과 유가 하락

호르무즈 해협을 통과한 원유량이 1600만 배럴로 증가하며 통행량 회복 조짐이 보이고 있습니다. 이는 유가 하락의 주요 원인 중 하나로, 시장이 호르무즈 해협의 통행이 정상화될 것으로 예상하고 있음을 보여줍니다. 이라크의 OPEC 탈퇴 가능성과 중국의 이란 원유 수입 재개 검토는 추가적인 시장 변동성을 예상하게 합니다.

본문 2: 이라크의 OPEC 탈퇴 가능성과 시장 영향

이라크가 OPEC을 탈퇴할 경우, 현재 437만 배럴의 생산 할당량을 초과할 가능성이 있습니다. 이는 OPEC의 시장 조절 능력에 영향을 미칠 수 있으며, 원유 공급 과잉으로 이어질 수 있습니다. 이는 중동 지역과 아시아 시장의 유가 변동성에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

본문 3: 중국의 이란 원유 수입 재개 검토

중국의 이란 원유 수입 재개 검토는 트럼프 행정부의 60일 기간 내에서 완료될 수 있는 거래를 고려하고 있습니다. 이는 이란의 원유 수출 증가로 이어질 수 있으며, 중동 지역과 아시아 시장의 유가 변동성에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

결론

브렌트 유가의 급락과 호르무즈 해협의 통행량 회복은 에너지 시장에 긍정적인 신호로 읽힙니다. 그러나 이라크의 OPEC 탈퇴 가능성과 중국의 이란 원유 수입 재개 검토는 추가적인 시장 변동성을 예상하게 합니다. 향후 호르무즈 해협의 통행 상황과 OPEC의 생산 할당량 조정 여부가 주요 관측 포인트가 될 것입니다.

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원문 링크: https://news.google.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?oc=5

Brent Erases Iran War Premium as Hormuz Flows Show Signs of Recovery - Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com

Oil prices tumbled as markets bet Strait of Hormuz disruptions will ease, with Brent down 10% on the week and Middle East crude benchmarks slipping into contango. Friday, June 26, 2026 Whilst ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz remain a fraction of their previous norm 130-140 transits per day, plunging crude oil prices suggest the commodity markets anticipate that flows would start to recover sooner than later. The two Middle Eastern crude benchmarks, Dubai and Murban, have flipped into contango, as a temporary period of oversupply is sending ripples across the Asian markets. Logging a hefty 10% weekly loss, ICE Brent will close the week around $72 per barrel, the same level that it was before the US attack on Iran on February 28. Hormuz Is Starting to Reopen, In Earnest. Crude transits through the Strait of Hormuz rose to the highest weekly tally since the onset of the US-Iran conflict this week, with more than 16 million barrels passing through the waterway this Wednesday-Thursday, raising hopes of a full gradual reopening. Iran Fires at Taiwanese Cargo Ship. Raising fears that Hormuz transit could be choked off again, Iran's IRG fired several drones at the Taiwan-owned Ever Lovely cargo ship, reportedly attempting to cross the Hormuz through 'unauthorized routes", damaging the vessel's bridge some 7 miles off the Omani coast. Iraq Might Throw OPEC Under the Bus. According to media reports, Iraq has considered leaving OPEC if the oil group does not allow Baghdad to significantly increase its crude production quotas, currently at 4.378 million b/d, a claim which the Iraqi Oil Ministry subsequently denied and called 'premature'. China's State Refiners Eye Resuming Iran Imports. Chinese state-controlled refiners such as Sinopec and PetroChina are considering resuming Iranian oil purchases for the first time since 2019 as the 60-day window granted by the Trump administration could be wide enough to complete several transactions. Qatar Flaunts Its Return to LNG Markets. Qatar plans to resume normal operations at its Ras Laffan liquefaction plants within the upcoming weeks, seeking to restart the undamaged 12 trains at the world's largest export plant 2 trains remain damaged following a four-month-long hiatus. Trump Blames Big Oil for High Gasoline Prices. US President Trump has ordered the Department of Justice to look investigate companies' pricing policies, claiming that American refiners are not 'dropping their gasoline price at the pump commensurate' to oil prices, which had dropped like a rock. Refiners Lost Their Appetite for African Oil. Differentials for West African grades have collapsed to their lowest on record, with Congo's flagship Djeno crude once a staple for northern Chinese refineries now trading at a $10 per barrel discount to Dated Brent, with Angolan grades falling to -$7 vs Dated. Kazakh Oil Output Sapped by Drone Strikes. Kazakhstan's giant Karachaganak field saw its production curbed by 25%, dropping down to 200,000 b/d, after a Ukrainian drone strike carried out on the Orenburg gas processing plant this week reportedly led to a complete halt in operations. Oman Joins Calls for a No-Toll Hormuz. The government of Oman joined other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council in a declaration that rejects the imposition of tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, assuaging fears that it could create a joint transit payment mechanism with Tehran. Saudi Arabia Restarts Loadings in the Gulf. Saudi Arabia's national oil company Saudi Aramco TADAVUL 2222 has loaded its first two cargoes in the Persian Gulf since the start of the US-Iran conflict in March, using its own Karan and Zaynah VLCC tankers, adding to the 4 million b/d export flow from Yanbu. Chinese Metal Traders Await Their Time. As Chinese zinc futures have collapsed in recent weeks and are now trading at a $400 per tonne discount to international prices, around 22,000 per metric tonne $3,235/mt the country's zinc traders are preparing a flurry of outflows to ME warehouses next month. Venezuela's Deadly Earthquake Spares Oil Production. The 7.2-magnitude earthquake that shook Venezuela this week, resulting in at least 235 casualties so far, has not resulted in any significant damage to PDVSA's oil production and refining facilities despite blackouts in several states. Russia Mulls Diesel Export Ban. Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that Moscow is considering a ban on the export of diesel for fuel producers for several months, as Ukraine drone strikes on Russian refineries curbed product supply and pushed prices up 9% year-on-year to $4 per gallon. Gold Prices Plunge on US Interest Rate Hikes. The bullion is on track to mark its 5th straight weekly loss, with spot gold trading around $4,025 per ounce on Friday, as a stronger-than-expected dollar and expectations of US interest rate hikes coming as soon as September weighed on sentiment.By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com

Source: https://news.google.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?oc=5