핵심요약

• 석유 생산 및 무역 패턴은 2027년 초까지 분쟁 이전 상태로 회복될 것으로 추정됩니다.
• 국제에너지기구(IEA)는 글로벌 유류 흐름이 정상화되고 재고가 보충될 때까지 유가가 높은 수준을 유지할 것으로 전망합니다.
• 올해 글로벌 석유 공급은 4.3백만 배럴/일, 즉 약 4% 감소할 것으로 예측됩니다.
• 유가 불안정은 중동의 불안정성과 지정학적 리스크에 의해 장기간 영향을 받을 수 있습니다.

도입

본 기사는 미-이란 전쟁으로 촉발된 유가 충격이 세계 경제와 인도에 미칠 장기적인 영향을 분석합니다. 이는 단기적인 유가 변동을 넘어, 공급망 안정성과 거시 경제의 지속 가능성에 대한 근본적인 질문을 던지며 투자 전략 수립에 중요한 시사점을 제공합니다.

본문 1: 공급 불확실성과 시간 예측

IEA는 석유 생산 및 무역 패턴이 분쟁 이전 상태로 돌아가는 데까지 2027년 초까지 걸릴 것으로 추정했습니다. 이는 단기적인 충격 이후에도 공급망의 회복이 장기간 소요될 수 있음을 의미합니다. 또한, IEA는 글로벌 석유 흐름이 정상화되고 석유 재고가 보충될 때까지 유가가 높은 수준을 유지할 것으로 예측했습니다. 이는 시장이 단기적인 공급 감소에 반응하더라도, 근본적인 공급 구조의 변화가 반영되기까지 시간이 걸릴 수 있음을 시사합니다. 즉, 유가 안정화는 단순한 재고 회복을 넘어, 지정학적 상황의 장기화에 따른 새로운 공급 균형이 형성되는 과정을 포함합니다.

본문 2: 충격 완화 메커니즘과 리스크

현재까지 유가 위기가 심화되지 않은 요인은 국제 에너지 기구(IEA)의 조치와 각국의 전략적 대응에 기인합니다. 중동의 호르무즈 해협 통행이 중단되면서 IEA는 회원국 비축유 4억 배럴을 긴급 방출하는 조치를 취했습니다. 또한, 미국은 전략비축유(SPR)에서 석유를 감축하고 있으며, 중국 역시 석유 수입 수요를 줄이고 전략 비축유를 사용함으로써 시장 안정에 기여했습니다. 이러한 비상 조치들은 단기적인 공급 충격을 완화하는 데 도움을 주었으나, 이는 근본적인 공급 리스크가 해소된 것이 아니라 일시적인 균형을 맞춘 결과로 해석해야 합니다. 따라서 향후 유가 흐름은 이러한 비상 조치들의 지속 가능성과 각국의 전략적 석유 정책 변화에 따라 달라질 수 있습니다.

본문 3: 인도 경제에 미치는 영향

인도와 같은 거대 소비국에게 장기적인 유가 불안정은 심각한 경제적 부담으로 작용할 수 있습니다. 석유 가격의 장기적인 상승은 인도 경제의 인플레이션을 악화시키고, 제조업 비용을 증가시켜 경제 성장에 제약을 가할 수 있습니다. 특히 인도 경제는 에너지 수입 의존도가 높기 때문에, 유가 충격은 무역 수지 및 거시 경제 안정성에 직접적인 영향을 미칩니다. 따라서 인도는 장기적인 공급 안정화 시나리오를 예측하고 이에 대비한 에너지 정책 및 재고 관리 전략을 수립해야 하는 과제를 안게 됩니다.

결론

미-이란 전쟁으로 인한 유가 충격은 단기적 충격 이후에도 2027년까지 장기적인 공급 불확실성을 내포하고 있습니다. 시장은 단기적인 재고 회복에 집중하지만, 실제 유가 안정화는 글로벌 유류 흐름의 정상화와 지정학적 리스크의 장기화에 달려 있습니다. 투자자들은 향후 2~3년간의 공급망 안정화 추세와 각국의 비축유 정책 변화를 면밀히 관찰하여 장기적인 에너지 및 경제 리스크를 평가해야 할 것입니다.

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How long can the world & India absorb the US-Iran war oil shock? - The Times of India

The US-Iran war may have led the world to see one of the biggest oil supply disruptions in history but crude prices have largely seen a limited spike. But, for how long? The Middle East conflict is showing no signs of ending - the global oil market may have survived the first few months of the war relatively unscathed, but what if the war doesn’t end for another six months? For how long can the global economy, and India, survive an oil shock that may be snowballing slowly to possibly hit hard?In its August outlook on oil, US Energy Information Administration estimates that it will take until early 2027 for oil production and trade patterns to generally return to pre-conflict status.Not only that, EIA also believes that oil prices will continue to stay high for some time. “…because of the large drawdown in global inventories triggered by continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, we forecast that oil prices will remain elevated until global oil flows return to normal and oil inventories are replenished,” it says.In fact, the IEA says that global oil supply will fall by 4.3 million barrels per day, ‌or around 4%, this year.How will the world, and India be able to handle a prolonged oil crisis? We decode:What’s prevented an oil crisis till now?Let’s first understand what has helped the oil supply thus far:As the Middle East conflict unfolded and traffic through Strait of Hormuz came to a standstill, the International Energy Agency (IEA) responded by announcing the emergency release of 400 million barrels of oil from member countries’ reserves in March. This was the largest ever coordinated release of oil stocks.IEA also said that more supply would be released, in case the situation worsens. The US has also been drawing down from its Strategic Petroleum Reserves, which according to a Reuters report is now at the lowest since January 1983.China’s move to reduce its demand for oil imports and use up its strategic reserves has been a big factor in controlling the demand-supply gap from widening. It is estimated that while the supply loss from the Gulf is at around 11 million barrels per day, the gap compared to the demand is just around 5 million barrels per day.By some estimates, the current global crude oil inventory should be able to cover several months. But, the calculation could be tricky since one cannot assume that the entire inventory would be available for release.Also Read | Beijing’s billion-barrel weapon: Why India must prepare for China-driven oil pricesSlippery road ahead: How long can the world take the hit?According to a Reuters analysis, global oil stocks are under pressure, and the scale of disruption is particularly difficult to determine since the length of the conflict is unknown. Hence, it is not easy to gauge whether the current supply of reserves will be sufficient to prevent a bigger crisis from unfolding.Saudi Aramco has estimated that the world has lost as many as 2.6 billion barrels of oil since the conflict started. This is the largest cumulative disruption that the world economy has seen apart from the 1979 Iranian revolution. This means around 25 days of pre-war global consumption has been hit.According to a Reuters report, the total government and commercial stocks with IEA are theoretically sufficient to cover the current 5 million barrels per day supply gap for around 300 days. But, only some part of the stock is readily releasable, reducing the gap covering capacity to around 180 days.OPEC estimates global oil stocks at roughly 8 billion barrels, including commercial inventories, strategic reserves, and oil in transit.Praveen Rai, Director, Grant Thornton Bharat explains that each IEA member country that is a net oil importer must maintain oil stocks equivalent to at least 90 days of the previous year's net oil imports.The US has about 700 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves. Confirmed US inventories stand at about 350 million barrels currently, after falling by roughly 100 million barrels since March. China holds roughly 1–1.4 billion barrels of crude oil inventory and India around 100 million barrels.“Overall, global oil inventories remain substantial, but only a portion is readily available to offset a major supply disruption. However, much of oil stocks is operational inventory required to keep refineries and supply chains functioning,” Praveen Rai tells TOI.Pankaj Srivastava, Senior Vice President, Commodity Markets - Oil at Rystad Energy explains that in practice, crude inventories are unevenly distributed geographically, and a significant portion is held as strategic or operational stocks.“Countries are unlikely to release large volumes of their own inventories for export if doing so would compromise their domestic energy security. Even where inventories are technically available, logistical constraints, crude-quality requirements, refinery configuration and regional supply preferences limit their effective usability,” he tells TOI.But supply constraints may ease as additional production becomes available from the UAE, US, Guyana, Brazil and potentially Venezuela.“Any increase in supply from these producers would reduce the rate of inventory drawdown and extend the period over which the market can absorb the current supply disruption,” Srivastava says.Also Read | 100% tariffs: Why India may ignore Trump threat and continue buying Russian crude oilAnother important point to understand is that the definition of ‘operable’ or minimum usable inventory varies significantly by country and region.“Countries such as China and the US, with substantial strategic and commercial storage capacity, can draw down inventories to relatively low levels while maintaining refinery operations. In contrast, countries with only 2-4 weeks of crude inventory coverage are significantly more exposed to supply disruptions and market volatility,” says Pankaj Srivastava.So the impact can be uneven, depending on the ability to replenish stocks.The math is further complicated by the fact that a big portion of the spare production capacity in the world sits in the Gulf. Non-OPEC producers like the US, Brazil, Canada and Guyana can gradually increase output, but any large production response tends to take months.“So, spare capacity can reduce the severity of a supply shock, but it is unlikely to completely neutralize the impact of a prolonged and large-scale loss of Gulf supplies,” says Praveen Rai.According to Naveen Das, Senior Crude Oil Analyst at Kpler, the stocks are less of a problem, the bigger issue is the logistics.“Storage volume isn't the problem. Global stocks have barely moved despite a sustained deficit, so there's no tank-space crisis. The real bottleneck is logistics: getting crude out of the Gulf via limited bypass pipeline capacity, and the rerouting and queuing showing up in floating storage. Government caution about releasing strategic reserves is a secondary constraint. Refining capacity matters at the margins but isn't the global chokepoint,” he tells TOI.Globally, inventories appear more comfortable when commercial stocks, oil at sea, the US SPR and China's reserves are included, but not all of these represent immediately usable supply.One factor that needs to be understood is this: the scope of further release in emergency stocks is narrowing since many countries have depleted their stocks.China emerges a major playerChina is seen to be a notable exception, even though it doesn't disclose its reserves: Among higher estimates of 1.7 billion barrels, China could actually cover its pre-war Hormuz imports of around 5.5 million bpd for almost a year. This puts it among the better-positioned major economies alongside Japan.“China has reduced its crude imports by around 30–35% since the US–Iran war, which has helped prevent the global crude market from becoming excessively tight. The resulting demand moderation in China has provided an additional balancing mechanism, partially offsetting the supply disruption from the Gulf,” Pankaj Srivastava tells TOI."If the Gulf crisis persists, China is likely to continue playing a stabilizing role in the global crude market, particularly through a combination of lower imports, refinery run adjustments and utilization of its domestic crude inventories,” he says.But as experts note, China's pattern is to buy aggressively when prices are soft, not to release reserves for the world's benefit.“If pushed, a plausible six-month release might be 1-2 million barrels, or roughly 180-360 million barrels total. This would be enough to ease China's own import needs and indirectly free up barrels for others, but not a deliberate act of global market support,” says Kpler’s Naveen Das.China is not part of the IEA's coordinated stock-release mechanism and traditionally treats inventories as a strategic national asset.“China is more likely to use its reserves primarily to stabilize domestic demand rather than support global markets. If disruptions persisted for six months, China could release a meaningful portion of its stocks, potentially several hundred million barrels over time, but policymakers would be cautious about drawing inventories down too aggressively given uncertainties around future energy security,” says Praveen Rai of Grant Thornton Bharat.“Therefore, China's reserves can provide an important stabilizing influence, but they should be viewed as a partial buffer rather than a solution capable of fully offsetting a major and sustained supply shock,” he cautions.What it could mean for IndiaExperts believe India’s comprehensive diversification strategy will protect it from oil supply shocks.Naveen Das of Kpler points out that even though India imports nearly all its crude, it has adapted well. “Russian barrels now consistently make up 60-75% of what's on the water heading its way, alongside Brazilian, US, and West African supply. That diversification means India isn't as exposed to a prolonged war as a Gulf-heavy importer would be. The volumetric supply security looks manageable,” he tells TOI.But the shock would not be of supply alone, and this is where India’s exposure is important. If global crude oil supplies continue to narrow, India would have a limited pool to buy from, increasing the price of crude.(function(){function e(){window.addEventListener(message,function(e){if(e.data[datawrapper-height]!==void 0){var t=document.querySelectorAll(iframe);for(var n in e.data[datawrapper-height])for(var r=0,i;i=t[r];r++)if(i.contentWindow===e.source){var a=e.data[datawrapper-height][n]+px;i.style.height=a}}})}e()})();Also, China which has till now used up some of its strategic reserves, could also compete for the same oil. Higher crude oil prices would have a direct impact on India’s oil import bill, which had also become a cause of worry at the start of the US-Iran conflict.Also read: Crude prices cross $90 as ceasefire hopes dim, Hormuz disruption weighs on supplyAlternative barrels generally come with higher freight, premiums and/or less favorable pricing.“The real costs are higher freight from longer voyages, refinery adjustments to run non-Gulf crude, and price: India still pays global benchmark prices, so a persistent global deficit means continued high and volatile costs even as its physical supply holds up,” Naveen Das explains.Additionally, even as Russian crude supplies to India have hit a record high in recent months, India faces the prospect of a new sanctions bill being passed in the US which would empower the Trump administration to impose up to 100% tariffs on big importers of Moscow’s oil“India’s reliance on Russian crude could face some pressure from the proposed 100% US tariff, particularly for refiners with significant exposure to Western markets. However, historical experience suggests that energy security is likely to take precedence over trade considerations, especially during periods of supply disruption,” says Pankaj Srivastava of Rystad Energy“India is therefore likely to continue optimizing its crude basket based on availability, economics, refinery compatibility and geopolitical constraints, rather than moving away from Russian barrels solely because of tariff pressure,” he concludes.Get the latest Business News and Live updates. Download the TOI app.

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