미중 반도체 전쟁, 동아시아가 승부를 가를 것
East Asia Semiconductors Will Decide the Next US-China Arms Race - Geopolitical Monitor
반도체 공급망과 관련된 중미 군사 경쟁은 중장기적인 테마이지만, 단기적으로 시장에 영향을 미칠 만한 구체적인 촉매제가 없습니다.
핵심 요약
군용 인공지능과 양자 컴퓨팅은 최첨단 반도체를 필요로 하며, 펜타곤은 'More than Moore' 접근법을 채택했습니다.
핵심요약
- 동아시아(타이완, 한국, 일본)가 전 세계 반도체 제조의 70% 이상을 점유하며 미중 경쟁의 핵심 지역으로 부상하고 있습니다.
- 중국 군부는 2027년까지 정보화 및 지능화된 군사력을 달성할 것을 목표로 하고 있으며, 이를 위해 최첨단 반도체가 필수적입니다.
- 양자 컴퓨팅 칩은 현재 실내 온도에서만 작동하여 군용으로 신뢰할 수 있는 수준에 도달하지 못했습니다.
- 펜타곤은 'More than Moore' 접근법을 채택하여 군용 인공지능 칩의 성능을 향상시키고 있습니다.
- 미중 간 반도체 무역 전쟁이 지속되며, 미국은 국내 생산을 확대하고 중국을 배제하려는 움직임을 보이고 있습니다.
도입
이 기사는 미중 경쟁에서 반도체의 전략적 중요성을 강조하며, 특히 동아시아의 반도체 공급망이 승패를 가를 것이라는 점에서 투자자들에게 중요한 시사점을 제공합니다. 반도체 산업의 지리적 집중화와 군사 기술의 발전이 어떻게 상호작용하는지 이해하는 것은 향후 투자 결정에 필수적입니다.
본문 1: 동아시아의 반도체 공급망과 미중 경쟁
기사에서는 동아시아가 전 세계 반도체 제조의 70% 이상을 점유하고 있다고 강조합니다. 이는 타이완, 한국, 일본이 반도체 산업의 핵심 지역으로 부상했음을 의미하며, 미중 경쟁에서 이 지역의 안보가 매우 중요해졌습니다. 중국이 타이완에 가하는 압력과 미국이 국내 생산을 확대하려는 움직임은 반도체 공급망의 재편을 가속화하고 있습니다. 이 같은 변화는 반도체 기업의 수익성과 시장 점유율을 크게 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 투자자들은 동아시아의 정치적 안정성과 반도체 기업의 공급망 다각화 전략을 주의 깊게 관찰해야 합니다.
본문 2: 군사 기술의 발전과 반도체 수요
군용 인공지능과 양자 컴퓨팅은 최첨단 반도체를 필요로 하며, 이는 반도체 산업의 새로운 성장 동력으로 작용할 수 있습니다. 펜타곤이 'More than Moore' 접근법을 채택한 것은 군용 인공지능 칩의 성능을 향상시키기 위한 노력의 일환입니다. 그러나 양자 컴퓨팅 칩은 현재 실내 온도에서만 작동하여 군용으로 신뢰할 수 있는 수준에 도달하지 못했습니다. 이는 양자 컴퓨팅 기술의 발전이 아직 초기 단계에 있음을 보여주며, 향후 몇 년 동안 이 분야에서 큰 변화가 예상됩니다. 투자자들은 군사 기술의 발전이 반도체 수요에 미치는 영향을 주의 깊게 관찰해야 합니다.
본문 3: 미중 무역 전쟁의 영향
미중 간 반도체 무역 전쟁이 지속되며, 미국은 국내 생산을 확대하고 중국을 배제하려는 움직임을 보이고 있습니다. 이는 반도체 공급망의 재편을 가속화하며, 특히 동아시아 기업들에게 새로운 기회와 도전을 동시에 제공할 것입니다. 중국은 미국과의 경쟁에서 뒤처지지 않기 위해 자체 반도체 산업의 발전 속도를 높이고 있습니다. 이는 글로벌 반도체 시장 구조에 큰 변화를 가져올 수 있으며, 투자자들은 이 같은 변화에 신속하게 대응해야 합니다.
결론
이 기사는 미중 경쟁에서 반도체의 전략적 중요성을 강조하며, 특히 동아시아의 반도체 공급망이 승패를 가를 것이라는 점에서 투자자들에게 중요한 시사점을 제공합니다. 향후 몇 년 동안 반도체 산업의 발전과 군사 기술의 진보는 상호작용하며 새로운 성장 동력을 창출할 가능성이 높습니다. 투자자들은 동아시아의 정치적 안정성과 반도체 기업의 공급망 다각화 전략을 주의 깊게 관찰해야 하며, 군사 기술의 발전이 반도체 수요에 미치는 영향을 주의 깊게 관찰해야 합니다.
Original Article
East Asia Semiconductors Will Decide the Next US-China Arms Race - Geopolitical Monitor
As US-China competition grows, emerging military technologies could shift the balance of power. Underlining this rivalry are semiconductors, without which neither side can truly master modern warfare. Whoever secures the most resilient supply chain will prevail in this race to become the next superpower. The global semiconductor industry is geographically concentrated in East Asia, with Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan leading in manufacturing, although the United States and the EU also hold significant stakes. Amid China’s continuous pressure on Taiwan and a trade war that is reshaping the industry, the United States is pushing to boost domestic production and kick the ladder out from under China. Yet these efforts actually risk boosting China’s standing instead of damaging it. How Chips Power Emerging Military Technologies All modern military systems run on semiconductors, but military AI and quantum computing make chips crucial for US-China competition. While AI acts as a combat multiplier , allowing for faster data processing, quantum computing could further improve military AI, offering disruptive benefits across networks, communications, sensing and imaging. Their combination could enable breakthroughs in defense-related computational capabilities, making military forces more informatized and intelligentized–exactly the Chinese military objective set for 2027. The growth of military AI and quantum computing increases the need for specialized semiconductors. While most weapon systems are built on legacy chips that offer reliability in harsh battlefield conditions, both AI and quantum computing require cutting-edge semiconductors. While the Pentagon has adopted the “More than Moore” approach to make AI chips better suited for military needs, making military quantum computing reliable under harsh conditions remains a challenge. Three elements are critical. First, temperature: so far, quantum computing chips have operated at most at room temperature , too high for military purposes. Second, silicon : the backbone material for higher-performing semiconductors offers startups and industry leaders the opportunity to produce quantum chips at scale, making this technology soon accessible. Third, radiation-hardened design for military processors: as of now, highly specialized requirements prevent a “ one-size-fits-all ” manufacturing model for these chips, whose manufacturing instead relies on narrow, low-volume supply chains involving specialized materials, extensive defense-specific testing, and certification. Despite market need, the limited comparative demand and precarious production of military-grade chips have alienated large-scale commercial manufacturers. Consequently, military semiconductor supply chains rely on fewer suppliers, making them less substitutable and more vulnerable to external shocks. This fragility has prompted US defense companies to push for onshoring production. While this move reflects President Trump’s intention to boost US dominance, tariffs against East Asian countries have increased AI and quantum semiconductor supply chain vulnerabilities and weakened Taiwan’s strongest deterrent–the “Silicon Shield”–against Chinese invasion. Eventually, these efforts could catalyze the industry’s collapse, benefiting China over the United States. Semiconductors: The Heart of US-China Military Competition While US production accounts for only 12% of the world’s chips–none of which are the most advanced–Taiwan makes more than half of the world’s semiconductors, and about 90% of the most advanced. Well-established industrial districts give Taiwan a competitive advantage, including specialized labor pools, supplier linkages, knowledge spillovers, and concentrations of tacit knowledge. An invasion by China would cause catastrophic supply chain disruptions, including shortages in key global industries, destruction of physical capital, and the loss of talent and technology flows. However, shifting the industry away from Taiwan is highly unlikely. Because the semiconductor industry is static, physical infrastructure is key, with about 66% of manufacturing facilities in East Asia across 292 sites . This established cluster makes the physical transfer of semiconductor infrastructure equivalent to bringing Silicon Valley’s capabilities across the ocean. As a result, East Asia is at the center of US-China geostrategic competition, sparking a tense tit-for-tat of sanctions and restrictions. To shield itself from volatile chip and tariff wars, China has been pursuing AI self-sufficiency . This quest has even prompted China to recommend domestic semiconductors for state-run AI data centers, despite NVIDIA’s plan to ship H200 chips to Chinese clients in early 2026 after the United States reversed a Biden-era ban. The acceleration of Beijing’s domestic supply chains has also affected quantum development. Intended to slow China’s quantum advancements, the 2024 US export controls have pushed Beijing to invest in domestic supply chains to avoid further disruptions, increasing unprecedented specialized infrastructure, effectively shielded from foreign interference. Worse, experts have warned that the Trump administration’s 2025 tariffs risk crippling the United States’ quantum leadership, potentially pushing China to turbocharge AI’s warfare applications. China’s defense sector stands as the greatest beneficiary of supply chain self-reliance. The tariff war accelerated China’s development of sovereign AI defense supply chains, with Beijing leveraging its “civil-military fusion” strategy to increase AI integration into its military logistics . Furthermore, China has stated the intent to achieve “national reunification” with Taiwan by 2049. China’s 2025 military exercises amid rising allied support for Taiwan signal imminent danger. China’s military rehearsed an encirclement of Taiwan in 2023 , with US intelligence sources estimating a potential invasion by 2027. China’s progress poses a twofold threat to the United States. On one hand, Beijing’s supply chain self-reliance and exclusion from global supply chains could turn Taiwan’s Silicon Shield into an incentive for military invasion rather than a deterrent. On the other hand, the legacy chips powering US military systems are a supply chain vulnerability . Although Taiwan still produces the majority of both legacy and cutting-edge chips, China is rapidly advancing as the world’s powerhouse for legacy semiconductors. An invasion of Taiwan would not only endanger the primary source of legacy chips for the US military but also turn China into the most reliable backup. Resilient Semiconductor Supply Chains: The Silver Bullet Instead of onshoring and imposing strict ally restrictions, building supply chain resilience requires spreading knowledge and capabilities across producing countries to prevent bottlenecks and create regional resilience without dismantling established industrial districts. Over time, these countries will be poised to specialize within the industry, diversifying semiconductor production and innovation. While China and the United States are advancing quantum computing, they are not in direct technical competition . As development continues, subfields will emerge, and entirely new supply chains will be built to accommodate these specializations. Instead of moving away from East Asian-based semiconductor manufacturing, encouraging trade and talent flows with existing partners will empower the trade bloc as a defense and economic measure against China, as complete domestic replication and dominance of each emerging specialization is highly unlikely. Development and investment on US soil can continue with trade, avoiding excessive reliance on foreign suppliers without stifling innovation or risking supply chain collapse. Investing in more specialized semiconductor industrial clusters across different regions can protect the overarching supply chain and drive innovation without long-term repercussions from trying to quickly move the entire industry. The US Department of State’s recent initiative, Pax Silica , aims to build a new economic consensus on AI and supply chain security. While Taiwan is notably absent from the cohort, it reportedly held a seat during the discussions on manufacturing and semiconductors. Additionally, the most recent US-Taiwan trade agreement allows Taiwan’s technology companies to invest at least $250 billion in US production capacity in exchange for reduced tariffs. These crucial developments further intertwine the United States and East Asian countries in advanced chip development. Ultimately, the prevailing power will not come down to who has the most advanced byproduct of AI and quantum computing. Rather, whoever has access to several clusters of the most specialized technologies will determine resilience and primacy. But more work is needed to ensure highly resilient semiconductor supply chains sustain the current pace of AI and quantum military technologies amid geopolitical tensions . Previous efforts to stall Beijing’s AI and quantum developments have encouraged a booming Chinese domestic supply chain. Now is the time to double down on US’s inherent strengths: allies capable of isolating China from advanced chip development. The views expressed in this article belong to the author(s) alone and do not necessarily reflect those of Geopoliticalmonitor.com.
The global semiconductor industry is geographically concentrated in East Asia, with Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan leading in manufacturing, although the United States and the EU also hold significant stakes. Amid China’s continuous pressure on Taiwan and a trade war that is reshaping the industry, the United States is pushing to boost domestic production and kick the ladder out from under China. Yet these efforts actually risk boosting China’s standing instead of damaging it.
All modern military systems run on semiconductors, but military AI and quantum computing make chips crucial for US-China competition. While AI acts as a combat multiplier , allowing for faster data processing, quantum computing could further improve military AI, offering disruptive benefits across networks, communications, sensing and imaging. Their combination could enable breakthroughs in defense-related computational capabilities, making military forces more informatized and intelligentized–exactly the Chinese military objective set for 2027.
The growth of military AI and quantum computing increases the need for specialized semiconductors. While most weapon systems are built on legacy chips that offer reliability in harsh battlefield conditions, both AI and quantum computing require cutting-edge semiconductors. While the Pentagon has adopted the “More than Moore” approach to make AI chips better suited for military needs, making military quantum computing reliable under harsh conditions remains a challenge.
Three elements are critical. First, temperature: so far, quantum computing chips have operated at most at room temperature , too high for military purposes. Second, silicon : the backbone material for higher-performing semiconductors offers startups and industry leaders the opportunity to produce quantum chips at scale, making this technology soon accessible. Third, radiation-hardened design for military processors: as of now, highly specialized requirements prevent a “ one-size-fits-all ” manufacturing model for these chips, whose manufacturing instead relies on narrow, low-volume supply chains involving specialized materials, extensive defense-specific testing, and certification.
Despite market need, the limited comparative demand and precarious production of military-grade chips have alienated large-scale commercial manufacturers. Consequently, military semiconductor supply chains rely on fewer suppliers, making them less substitutable and more vulnerable to external shocks. This fragility has prompted US defense companies to push for onshoring production. While this move reflects President Trump’s intention to boost US dominance, tariffs against East Asian countries have increased AI and quantum semiconductor supply chain vulnerabilities and weakened Taiwan’s strongest deterrent–the “Silicon Shield”–against Chinese invasion. Eventually, these efforts could catalyze the industry’s collapse, benefiting China over the United States.
While US production accounts for only 12% of the world’s chips–none of which are the most advanced–Taiwan makes more than half of the world’s semiconductors, and about 90% of the most advanced. Well-established industrial districts give Taiwan a competitive advantage, including specialized labor pools, supplier linkages, knowledge spillovers, and concentrations of tacit knowledge. An invasion by China would cause catastrophic supply chain disruptions, including shortages in key global industries, destruction of physical capital, and the loss of talent and technology flows.
However, shifting the industry away from Taiwan is highly unlikely. Because the semiconductor industry is static, physical infrastructure is key, with about 66% of manufacturing facilities in East Asia across 292 sites . This established cluster makes the physical transfer of semiconductor infrastructure equivalent to bringing Silicon Valley’s capabilities across the ocean.
As a result, East Asia is at the center of US-China geostrategic competition, sparking a tense tit-for-tat of sanctions and restrictions. To shield itself from volatile chip and tariff wars, China has been pursuing AI self-sufficiency . This quest has even prompted China to recommend domestic semiconductors for state-run AI data centers, despite NVIDIA’s plan to ship H200 chips to Chinese clients in early 2026 after the United States reversed a Biden-era ban.
The acceleration of Beijing’s domestic supply chains has also affected quantum development. Intended to slow China’s quantum advancements, the 2024 US export controls have pushed Beijing to invest in domestic supply chains to avoid further disruptions, increasing unprecedented specialized infrastructure, effectively shielded from foreign interference. Worse, experts have warned that the Trump administration’s 2025 tariffs risk crippling the United States’ quantum leadership, potentially pushing China to turbocharge AI’s warfare applications.
China’s defense sector stands as the greatest beneficiary of supply chain self-reliance. The tariff war accelerated China’s development of sovereign AI defense supply chains, with Beijing leveraging its “civil-military fusion” strategy to increase AI integration into its military logistics . Furthermore, China has stated the intent to achieve “national reunification” with Taiwan by 2049. China’s 2025 military exercises amid rising allied support for Taiwan signal imminent danger. China’s military rehearsed an encirclement of Taiwan in 2023 , with US intelligence sources estimating a potential invasion by 2027.
China’s progress poses a twofold threat to the United States. On one hand, Beijing’s supply chain self-reliance and exclusion from global supply chains could turn Taiwan’s Silicon Shield into an incentive for military invasion rather than a deterrent. On the other hand, the legacy chips powering US military systems are a supply chain vulnerability . Although Taiwan still produces the majority of both legacy and cutting-edge chips, China is rapidly advancing as the world’s powerhouse for legacy semiconductors. An invasion of Taiwan would not only endanger the primary source of legacy chips for the US military but also turn China into the most reliable backup.
Instead of onshoring and imposing strict ally restrictions, building supply chain resilience requires spreading knowledge and capabilities across producing countries to prevent bottlenecks and create regional resilience without dismantling established industrial districts. Over time, these countries will be poised to specialize within the industry, diversifying semiconductor production and innovation.
While China and the United States are advancing quantum computing, they are not in direct technical competition . As development continues, subfields will emerge, and entirely new supply chains will be built to accommodate these specializations. Instead of moving away from East Asian-based semiconductor manufacturing, encouraging trade and talent flows with existing partners will empower the trade bloc as a defense and economic measure against China, as complete domestic replication and dominance of each emerging specialization is highly unlikely. Development and investment on US soil can continue with trade, avoiding excessive reliance on foreign suppliers without stifling innovation or risking supply chain collapse. Investing in more specialized semiconductor industrial clusters across different regions can protect the overarching supply chain and drive innovation without long-term repercussions from trying to quickly move the entire industry.
The US Department of State’s recent initiative, Pax Silica , aims to build a new economic consensus on AI and supply chain security. While Taiwan is notably absent from the cohort, it reportedly held a seat during the discussions on manufacturing and semiconductors. Additionally, the most recent US-Taiwan trade agreement allows Taiwan’s technology companies to invest at least $250 billion in US production capacity in exchange for reduced tariffs. These crucial developments further intertwine the United States and East Asian countries in advanced chip development.
Ultimately, the prevailing power will not come down to who has the most advanced byproduct of AI and quantum computing. Rather, whoever has access to several clusters of the most specialized technologies will determine resilience and primacy. But more work is needed to ensure highly resilient semiconductor supply chains sustain the current pace of AI and quantum military technologies amid geopolitical tensions . Previous efforts to stall Beijing’s AI and quantum developments have encouraged a booming Chinese domestic supply chain. Now is the time to double down on US’s inherent strengths: allies capable of isolating China from advanced chip development.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author(s) alone and do not necessarily reflect those of Geopoliticalmonitor.com.