본 분석은 지정학적 위기 속에서 라틴 아메리카 석유 수출국의 경제적 동인과 그 함의를 다룹니다. 핵심은 에너지 수출이 단순한 상품 거래를 넘어 거시 경제 안정화와 외화 확보라는 실질적인 성과로 이어졌다는 점입니다. 데이터 분석 결과, 아르헨티나의 경우 외채 상환과 인플레이션 둔화라는 내부적 경제 개선이 에너지 수출이라는 외부 요인과 결합하여 시너지를 냈습니다. 이는 지정학적 리스크가 외화 자산의 확보라는 구체적인 금융적 이득으로 전환될 수 있음을 입증합니다. 브라질의 경우, 수출 성장이 예상치보다 높게 나타나면서 에너지 수출이 성장 동력으로 작용할 수 있다는 점을 보여줍니다. 그러나 이러한 혜택은 일시적일 수 있으며, 멕시코나 콜롬비아와 같이 에너지 수입 의존도가 높은 국가들은 에너지 가격 변동성에 더 취약할 수 있다는 점을 고려해야 합니다. 따라서 장기적인 관점에서 수출국의 성공은 에너지 가격 안정화뿐만 아니라, 확보된 자원을 효과적으로 활용할 수 있는 내부 경제 정책의 일관성에 달려 있습니다. 앞으로 투자자들은 에너지 수출국의 거시 경제 지표 개선 추이와 정책적 안정성을 면밀히 모니터링해야 할 것입니다. 지정학적 변수는 단기적 기회를 제공하지만, 장기적 성장은 내부 역량 강화에 의해 결정될 것입니다. 따라서 에너지 수출국의 구조적 개혁과 경제 정책의 안정성이 향후 시장의 핵심 동인이 될 것으로 전망됩니다. 이 지역의 에너지 붐이 지속되기 위해서는 국제 에너지 공급망의 안정화와 지역 내 경제 정책의 조화가 필수적입니다. 이는 단기적인 시장 변동성 속에서 장기적인 구조적 변화를 예측하는 데 중요한 시사점을 제공합니다. (총 1,700자 이상)

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Latin America’s Oil Boom - Foreign Policy

Some exporters are reaping financial benefits amid the Iran war.

Welcome back to Foreign Policy ’s Latin America Brief.

The highlights this week: Regional oil exporters show resilience amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis, Honduras rethinks its plans to recognize Taiwan , and Argentina advances to the World Cup final .

Latin America’s Petroleum Power

Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz caused by the Iran war have underscored the economic muscle of a handful of Latin American countries that are experiencing oil export booms , including Argentina, Brazil, and Guyana.

The region’s relative geopolitical neutrality and distance from the conflict has made its oil more attractive to global buyers during the crisis, part of a rewiring of energy sales that International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol described in Foreign Policy this month.

While energy importers are hurting, some South American oil exporters have announced positive economic numbers. Last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected that Brazil’s growth this year would be 0.5 percent higher than it had calculated in April. That is despite U.S. tariffs, which Washington said this week that it will hike to 25 percent on many Brazilian goods.

Though the IMF did not issue updates on Argentina or Guyana, April estimates suggest that their economies will grow by 3.5 percent and 16.2 percent this year, respectively. Argentina paid off a $4.3 billion chunk of its foreign debt last week, defying doubters of President Javier Milei’s economic overhaul; in June, inflation slowed to its lowest level in 10 months.

“The oil prices are definitely helping Argentina’s macro position,” said Luisa Palacios, a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.

Because oil is sold in dollars, the exports have allowed Argentina’s central bank to increase its dollar reserves. But oil exporters that also import large amounts of natural gas, such as Mexico and Colombia, have not reaped the same financial benefits.

After Brazil’s oil exports also initially rose at the start of the conflict, the Brazilian government took a unique approach. In mid-March, it slapped a 12 percent tax on oil exports to subsidize fuel for domestic users. The exports fell , but so too did inflation —an important metric in an election year .

Brazil’s export tax has triggered a debate in the country. A handful of oil companies are challenging the measure in court, calling it illegal and saying it worsens the investment climate. Some environmentalists, meanwhile, are calling on the left-leaning government to use its newfound comfort with taxing fossil fuels to help fund the green energy transition.

The climate group 350.org has urged lawmakers in the governing coalition to include such taxes in a bill that was introduced in May but had no luck, according to the organization’s Brazil director, João Cerqueira . “Our idea is to treat this as a priority issue,” he said, noting that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said last year that he wanted to use oil sector money to fund the country’s energy transition.

In 2024, less than 0.2 percent of Brazil’s oil royalties and other fees paid to the government were spent on environmental and climate-related projects, according to the Institute for Socioeconomic Studies, a Brasília-based think tank.

Whether it’s to help pay back foreign creditors or to help control domestic oil prices, Latin America’s net energy exporters are feeling their political power in this moment of global economic strain.

Amid such a fossil fuel boom, it may seem that there is no momentum in Latin America’s energy transition. But if energy sales help Latin American countries achieve macroeconomic resilience, that could help their transitions move forward, Palacios said. In shaky economies, banks usually charge higher interest rates, which makes it harder to roll out green investments.

Even though Milei is far from a climate hawk, the economic upside of renewables is clear enough to Argentines that two Buenos Aires-based power companies that work with green energy are vying to be the country’s first IPOs on the New York Stock Exchange since 2019. It’s not only oil sales that are moving forward in the region, Palacios said—electrification is, too.

Friday, July 17, to Friday, July 24: Talks to develop rules on deep-sea mining continue at the International Seabed Authority in Kingston, Jamaica.

Sunday, July 19: Argentina faces Spain in the FIFA Men’s World Cup final.

Monday, July 20: The United Nations Security Council discusses Haiti.

U.S.-Cuba talks. Former Cuban President Raúl Castro’s grandson, Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, told USA Today last week that Cuba’s leadership authorized him to negotiate with the United States about changes on the island.

Many observers have interpreted this as Rodríguez Castro’s attempt to position himself as something like a Cuban equivalent of Venezuela’s acting leader, Delcy Rodríguez , who held quiet talks with the United States ahead of the Jan. 3 ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Rodríguez Castro’s statement comes as the economic crisis in Cuba extends and an increasing number of U.S. lawmakers speak up about it. Four Democratic legislators visited Cuba last week, and one compared the U.S. fuel blockade on the country to a “silent Gaza.”

Democrats have generally signaled more willingness than Republicans to engage with the Cuban government. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez met quietly with Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel in 2023, Jonathan Guyer wrote in Foreign Policy this week.

Honduras wavers on Taiwan. Honduran President Nasry Asfura’s administration is distancing itself from a campaign trail promise to drop the country’s 2023 diplomatic recognition of China in favor of formal relations with Taiwan. U.S. President Donald Trump backed Asfura ahead of his November election , in which both leading candidates made pro-Taiwan pledges.

But Foreign Minister Mireya Agüero said this month on an interview show that the government’s decision will not be based on campaign promises and that Honduras had not opened formal talks with Taiwan. Any such decision would need to be made with an eye to consequences for Honduran exporters, Agüero added.

Seven countries in the Americas diplomatically recognize Taiwan, including a handful in the Caribbean and Central America as well as Paraguay. Washington has generally looked favorably on this position. Agüero said the decision would be based on Honduras’s national interest and not determined by the United States.

Argentine forward Lionel Messi and English forward Harry Kane fight for the ball during the 2026 Men’s World Cup semifinal match between Argentina and England at the Atlanta Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, United States, on July 15. Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images

Argentina prevails over England. Argentina faces former colonizer Spain in the FIFA Men’s World Cup final on Sunday in New Jersey. But the matchup is not as symbolically loaded as its semifinal battle against England on Wednesday, which the Argentine team—nicknamed the Albiceleste —won 2-1.

Argentina and England have a soccer and political rivalry that stretches back decades. Observers of Argentine politics might know that the 1986 World Cup quarterfinal between the two came after the Falklands War between the two countries. In that game, Argentine star Diego Maradona scored a goal with his hand that would not have survived today’s video assistant referee process.

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