핵심요약

• 최대 20,000명의 선원이 걸프 지역에 갇혀 있음
• 분쟁 시작 후 17명의 선원이 사망함
• 이란이 해로를 봉쇄하여 운송로가 차단됨
• 선원들의 심리적 고통과 안전 위험이 증대됨

도입

본 기사는 지정학적 갈등이 해상 운송 및 인명 안전에 미치는 직접적인 영향을 조명합니다. 이는 단순히 인도주의적 문제를 넘어 글로벌 공급망과 해운 산업의 운영 안정성에 중대한 위협을 가하고 있음을 시사합니다. 투자자들은 이러한 해상 위험이 물류 비용과 보험 시장에 미치는 파급 효과를 면밀히 분석해야 합니다.

본문 1: 지정학적 위험과 운송 경로의 봉쇄

이란이 해로를 봉쇄함으로써 발생하는 지정학적 위험은 해상 운송의 예측 가능성을 근본적으로 훼손합니다. 이는 단순히 물리적인 이동의 제한을 넘어, 국제 해상 무역의 핵심 동맥이 위협받고 있음을 의미합니다. 해상 운송은 지정학적 안정성에 직접적으로 의존하며, 이러한 봉쇄는 운송 비용의 급증과 경로 변경의 불확실성을 야기합니다. 특히 호르무즈 해협과 같은 주요 해로의 통제권 분쟁은 에너지 및 원자재 수송에 필수적인 물류 흐름을 불안정하게 만들며, 이는 장기적인 공급망 리스크로 작용합니다. 이는 해운 기업들이 예상치 못한 지연과 추가 비용을 감수해야 하는 상황을 의미하며, 운송 경로의 안전성 확보가 최우선 과제가 됩니다.

본문 2: 해운 산업에 미치는 재정적 및 보험적 영향

해상 운송의 위험 증가는 해운 산업 전반에 걸쳐 재정적 부담을 가중시킵니다. 운송 중 발생할 수 있는 물리적 공격이나 억류 위험은 선박 보험료의 급격한 상승으로 이어지며, 이는 해운 기업들의 운영 비용을 크게 증가시킵니다. 또한, 선원들의 안전 문제가 발생할 경우 발생하는 책임 및 배상 문제는 복잡한 법적, 재정적 분쟁을 초래합니다. 이러한 위험 프리미엄의 증가는 장기적으로 해운 시장의 가격 구조에 영향을 미치며, 위험 지역을 통과하는 선박에 대한 보험 상품의 재편을 요구합니다. 결과적으로, 지정학적 불안정성은 해운 산업의 리스크 관리 시스템에 대한 재평가를 촉발하며, 이는 투자 결정에 직접적인 영향을 미칩니다.

본문 3: 장기적 전망과 공급망 안정성

이러한 사태가 장기화될 경우, 글로벌 공급망의 안정성은 심각한 도전에 직면하게 됩니다. 특정 지역의 불안정성은 원자재 및 에너지의 안정적인 흐름을 방해하여 전 세계적인 인플레이션 압력과 경제적 불확실성을 심화시킵니다. 선원들의 안전과 복귀는 인도주의적 문제일 뿐만 아니라, 국제 해운 규범과 협력 체계의 신뢰성을 시험하는 지표가 됩니다. 장기적으로는 국제 사회가 해상 안보를 보장하고 분쟁 지역에 대한 통제권을 확립하는 것이 필수적입니다. 해운 산업은 이러한 지정학적 위험을 완화하기 위한 다자간 협력과 새로운 해상 안보 메커니즘 구축을 모색해야 할 것입니다.

결론

이번 사태는 지정학적 갈등이 해상 운송이라는 물리적 현실에 얼마나 직접적이고 치명적인 영향을 미치는지를 명확히 보여줍니다. 선원들의 안전 보장과 해상 경로의 안정화는 인도주의적 차원을 넘어, 글로벌 경제 시스템의 지속 가능성을 위한 필수 전제 조건입니다. 향후 국제 사회의 외교적 노력이 해상 안보 환경에 긍정적인 변화를 가져올 수 있을지 주목해야 할 것입니다. 해운 및 에너지 관련 투자 시에는 이러한 지정학적 변동성이 반영된 리스크 프리미엄을 반드시 고려해야 합니다.

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원문 링크: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxOdEtXaENtVU40cEp6em15eFY1enVpU3ZVUWVsWS1weVRvcUxHU0xnUVJFY1BHZzR3QlI2aVZUZEs4emVFaU5uYjZyVHpQenBsU29jMWVTeFFIMjB0emhBSGlacHU1QVJjRnZhTDlONUxDMGIzRU42dkRuQ1BSc0VOajRtNms5T3BYZnNvVkNvYUlpeHRVdTlsY1J5cUtTX2t5bmFPTVNjemY1Q1dWcFE?oc=5

‘Like being in prison’: the ship crews stuck in Gulf since February - The Guardian

US-Iran war has stranded up to 20,000 seafarers, mostly Indian and Filipino crews, with none knowing when the nightmare will end

T he panicked crew of a cargo ship broadcast a distress signal late on Monday night from their location in the strait of Hormuz . About 20 nautical miles north of the coast of Oman, the Minoan Pioneer bulk carrier was hit by an unknown projectile, causing a blackout in the engine room and a fire in the accommodation area.

The crew scrambled to put out the blaze and called for help from nearby vessels. When they managed to disembark from the Greek-owned, Liberian-flagged ship on Tuesday morning, they realised the third engineer was missing. Days later, he is yet to be found.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations centre is investigating but has not yet officially confirmed the origin of the projectile, although analysts at the maritime intelligence company Windward noted: “Prior kinetic attacks at this exact location have been Iranian in origin, though Iran denies involvement.”

In the preceding 24 hours two other vessels in the region, a large- and a medium-sized oil tanker, had reported near-misses.

The flurry of incidents casts a spotlight on the danger facing the thousands of seafarers who remain trapped in the Gulf as the US-led war on Iran extends into its sixth month. What should have been a normal journey when they passed through the strait and entered the Gulf back in February has turned into a long and stressful waiting game.

Iran has in effect blockaded the waterway, trapping 20,000 seafarers for weeks on end and inflicting a huge psychological toll. One seafarer stuck in the Gulf told the Guardian in the early weeks of the conflict of the “impossible” situation they and their crew were in, which had contributed to another sailor having a breakdown.

As the war has dragged on, sailors have become casualties: 17 seafarers have died since hostilities began, the majority following Iranian strikes.

The crews stuck in the strait have had their hopes of departure raised several times, before being dashed. April’s ceasefire and the peace deal signed in June by Washington and Tehran both broke down shortly after being announced.

Several dozen oil and gas tankers seized the brief window offered by the memorandum of understanding (MOU), the ceasefire deal signed by both sides, to exit through the channel, but not all made it through in time. There are still 6,000 seafarers on 500 vessels, encompassing all types of ships, trapped in the Gulf, according to the UN’s International Maritime Organization.

“We need to remember that these are innocent people who are trained to do the work, that they are not trained for combat, and the vessels are not prepared to defend themselves against missiles and drones,” said the IMO’s secretary-general, Arsenio Dominguez.

For the crews stuck waiting to exit it is like being in “prison”, the head of one of India’s maritime trade unions said. “For the guys who are on board, the question that arises is, when is this going to end? The uncertainty of the ongoing geopolitical tension is causing them stress,” said Savio Ramos, general secretary of the Maritime Union of India, which represents merchant navy officers.

“It is like putting somebody in prison and not giving them freedom to move,” added Ramos, a tanker captain with more than two decades of experience moving large oil carriers around the globe. “You don’t know where you’re going, you don’t what you’re doing. It gets to you after some time.”

Most vessels – at least those with responsible owners – are receiving regular supplies of fresh water, food and other goods ferried by small boats from shore, yet most crews have no way of getting out of a perilous situation.

Ramos said some of the union’s members who wanted to return home had been able to do so, provided other senior officers were willing to enter the region and replace them.

Talks have been taking place, mediated by Oman, which along with Iran borders the waterway. However, the two countries’ proposed deal suggested Tehran would have control over the flow of traffic entering the Gulf. This would not be popular with shipowners or the wider industry and would be a significant deviation from the freedom of navigation for vessels before the conflict.

Traffic is still passing through the strait, albeit at extremely low levels, since hostilities and attacks on ships resumed following the collapse of the MOU peace deal.

Only 52 non-Iranian linked vessels transited the strait in the week from 27 July to 2 August, according to analysts at the shipping publication Lloyd’s List, of which 60% exited the channel and 40% entered.

A further 32 Iranian-linked ships passed through the strait during the week. In total, these 84 vessels represent just over 10% of the average 700 ship movements each week before the conflict broke out.

This means 70 large oil and gas tankers, owned by mainstream companies that are not subject to sanctions, have been stranded in the Gulf since February, according to Lloyd’s List analysis. A further 65 tankers entered the region following the announcement of the MOU, only to find themselves unable to leave.

It is not clear how the stranded seafarers break down by nationality, but the biggest cohorts are likely to be Indians and Filipinos. India is the second largest global supplier of seafarers, with 312,000 working in the industry, after the 460,000 from the Philippines, according to the latest global seafarer report from the shipping associations the Baltic and International Maritime Council and the International Chamber of Shipping.

Since the war on Iran began, hostilities have spread to other regions including the Red Sea and Iraq . In addition, Russia and Ukraine have been attacking each other’s vessels in the Black Sea in an escalation of a maritime conflict in which 24 seafarers have been killed since the start of July.

This prompted analysts from Lloyd’s to call July “one of the deadliest months ever for commercial seafarers”.

Many in shipping are concerned that the longer the Iran conflict drags on and crews are stuck on vessels in a dangerous region, the fewer seafarers will be willing to travel to dangerous regions – or go to sea at all.

The IMO chief, Dominguez, pointed out that without seafarers the “90% of goods that are transported by ships will not be able to reach their final destinations and all of us are going to be impacted”.

Source: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirgFBVV95cUxOdEtXaENtVU40cEp6em15eFY1enVpU3ZVUWVsWS1weVRvcUxHU0xnUVJFY1BHZzR3QlI2aVZUZEs4emVFaU5uYjZyVHpQenBsU29jMWVTeFFIMjB0emhBSGlacHU1QVJjRnZhTDlONUxDMGIzRU42dkRuQ1BSc0VOajRtNms5T3BYZnNvVkNvYUlpeHRVdTlsY1J5cUtTX2t5bmFPTVNjemY1Q1dWcFE?oc=5