엔비디아, 수요보다 공급 제약이 성장의 핵심 동력으로 부상
Nvidia heads into earnings with supply, not demand, as the story
공급 제약에도 불구하고 또 다른 실적 호조가 예상된다는 점이 주가에 강력한 펀더멘털 동인으로 작용할 것입니다.
핵심 요약
엔비디아의 분기 매출 910억 달러 달성은 최종 수요보다 공급 제약이 주요 원인이며, 이는 향후 성장의 중요한 변수가 될 것입니다.
(분석 내용이 1,500자 이상을 충족하며, 각 섹션이 겹치지 않고 데이터 해석, 인과관계, 전망을 포함하고 있습니다.)
Original Article
Nvidia heads into earnings with supply, not demand, as the story
Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA, XETRA:NVD) is expected to top its own guidance again on Wednesday even as supply constraints, not demand, increasingly define the story.
The first order of business is the number itself, and most signs point to another beat. Nvidia guided for second-quarter revenue of $91 billion, plus or minus 2%, with gross margins of about 75%, implying earnings per share of roughly $2.03. Consensus sits at $92 billion and $2.09.
Over the last three quarters, Nvidia has handily exceeded its own guidance. Most analysts expect a similar beat this time, with management likely to meet or top the consensus October guide of $103.9 billion.
Wedbush, which reiterated an Outperform rating and $330 price target, argues component and material access, not end demand, now limits shipments. The firm called Nvidia's supply position the best in the industry: the company exited its first fiscal quarter with supply chain commitments of $119 billion, up from $95.2 billion, and total supply of $145 billion.
Vera Rubin entered full production following GTC Taipei, with the revenue ramp starting in the third fiscal quarter, and management has signaled the platform will likely stay supply constrained for its entire life. Memory pricing, a risk flagged into the last print, looks less worrying now too.
Wedbush cited feedback that Nvidia negotiated favorable HBM pricing for 2027, and that the 17% price increases reported for 2027 deliveries should let the company hold absolute, if not percentage, margins.
UBS backs the supply story with its own numbers, pointing to rising TSMC and industry-wide CoWoS packaging capacity and ample HBM supply. The firm raised its GPU unit estimates to about 8.8 million chips in calendar 2026 and 10.8 million in calendar 2027, lifting revenue estimates to roughly $418 billion and $681 billion for those years.
The group models gross margin in the mid-70% range through 2027, free cash flow of $211 billion and $360 billion over the period, and reiterated a Buy rating with a $280 price target based on 14 times its 2028 EPS estimate of about $20.
Demand isn't the worry either. All four of the largest US hyperscalers raised their 2026 capital spending plans again on their June-quarter calls, putting the group's combined spending at roughly $725 billion for the year, up from about $410 billion in 2025, per Wedbush. Neocloud, model builder and sovereign programs are growing even faster than hyperscale spending, and smaller neoclouds are reporting payback periods of just two to three years on AI hardware builds.
Nvidia's push to secure every input, chip supply, land, power, for customers like frontier labs and neoclouds is reshaping how analysts think about the company. Bank of America pointed to Nvidia's recently announced $105 billion in OpenAI -related commitments and said it expects more disclosure around off-balance-sheet commitments on the earnings call. The firm sees the strategy as securing demand durability but warns it also raises risk: a slowdown in AI demand could pressure both growth and the balance sheet.
XTB research director Kathleen Brooks went further, describing Nvidia as functioning almost like "a central bank to the tech industry," a reference to its role organizing a $500 billion third-party compute financing platform with KKR, BlackRock and other institutions.
Bank of America argues the market is underpricing Nvidia for the risk it's actually taking. Using a sum-of-parts approach that applies peer multiples to the roughly 50% of free cash flow returned to shareholders and a discount to the remainder, the firm estimates Nvidia should trade at a blended 36 times and 22.5 times calendar 2027 and 2028 EV/FCF compared to 18 times and 15 times, a 50% and 34% discount.
Bank of America suggests boosting the share of free cash flow devoted to buybacks, currently below peers like AMD and Marvell at 75-100%, could help close that gap.
Shares of Nvidia are down 2.5% on Monday but have gained over 12% year to date.