핵심요약

• 8월 브렌트 유가 1.3% 하락, 72.75달러 기록
• 20여 대 탱커가 3500만 배럴 원유 호르무즈 해협 통과
• 시티은행, 612개월 내 브렌트 유가 6065달러 전망
• 이란 혁명수비대, 지정 경로 외 통과 금지 경고

도입

이번 기사는 중동 전쟁으로 불안정했던 원유 공급망에 변화가 생기며 유가 하락 압력이 커지고 있음을 보여줍니다. 투자자에게는 에너지 시장 안정화 가능성과 동시에 이란의 지정학적 리스크가 지속될 수 있다는 점을 동시에 고려해야 합니다. 특히 단기적인 유가 변동성과 중장기적인 공급망 구조 변화가 포트폴리오 구성에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 것이 중요합니다.

본문 1: 호르무즈 해협 통행 증가와 유가 하락 압력

20여 대의 탱커가 3500만 배럴의 원유를 호르무즈 해협을 통과하며 공급 안정화 전망이 밝아졌습니다. 이는 중동 전쟁 초기 3개월간 정체되었던 유류 수송이 정상화되며 단기적인 유가 상승 압력이 완화될 수 있음을 시사합니다. 특히 아시아 시장에 공급될 이 원유가 8월 초까지 도착할 전망이어서, 단기적인 유가 변동성에 영향을 미칠 가능성이 큽니다. 시티은행의 60~65달러 전망은 이 같은 공급망 정상화가 반영된 것으로 보입니다.

본문 2: 이란의 지정학적 리스크와 시장 반응

이란 혁명수비대가 호르무즈 해협의 지정 경로 외 통과를 금지하며, 여전히 지정학적 리스크가 남아 있음을 보여줍니다. 이는 단기적인 유가 하락세에도 불구하고, 중동 지역 불안정이 지속될 경우 공급 차질이 발생할 수 있다는 점을 상기시킵니다. 특히 이란의 정책 변화나 국제 관계 변화에 따른 추가 리스크가 유가 변동성에 영향을 미칠 수 있다는 점이 핵심입니다. 투자자들은 이 같은 리스크를 고려하여 포트폴리오를 조정할 필요가 있습니다.

본문 3: 단기 vs 중장기 유가 전망의 괴리

단기적으로는 호르무즈 해협 통행 증가로 유가 하락 압력이 커지고 있지만, 중장기적으로는 이란의 정책 변화와 국제 관계 변화가 유가 변동성에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 특히 시티은행의 60~65달러 전망은 공급망 정상화가 반영된 것으로 보이나, 이란의 지정학적 리스크가 지속될 경우 추가 하락 압력이 생길 수 있습니다. 따라서 투자자들은 단기적인 유가 변동성과 중장기적인 공급망 구조 변화를 모두 고려해야 합니다.

결론

호르무즈 해협의 통행 증가로 유가가 하락세로 전환되었지만, 이란의 지정학적 리스크가 지속될 수 있다는 점이 핵심입니다. 중동 지역 불안정이 지속될 경우 공급 차질이 발생할 수 있다는 점을 고려하여, 투자자들은 포트폴리오를 조정할 필요가 있습니다. 향후 이란의 정책 변화와 국제 관계 변화에 주목해야 할 전망입니다.

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원문 링크: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiygFBVV95cUxPNmtGUE5oYTZGcDI1aTNUY1RWMHlOR2dvV09xV2VrcjZfY2RMcW8xTS1rc0lWUDdWM1Y0Y0xvTmp0cGhESlVxZThKMDB5ck1ncDlJbEVEbTduM1BvU0xxVFdQTWdiMDg2SGxfZDRoT09qTU9PazFpQzE3UUc3Z21iT3Y5QVlDSFJ4c0xPdE9DbmNmWFZEbmQ3Y1ktWm95c0JXaU11eFZEVzBMOFlsYjhaV1hRVnNCZnVNM0trOUw3dmVOeDZPMTZKU1J3?oc=5

Oil erases war gains as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz increases - Economies.com

Oil prices fell on Thursday, giving up the gains recorded during the war as investors bet on improving global crude supplies after tankers that had been stranded in the Arabian Gulf for months began leaving the Strait of Hormuz.

August Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, fell 1.3% to $72.75 a barrel, remaining close to levels last seen before the outbreak of the Middle East war in late February. August US West Texas Intermediate crude futures also declined 1.1% to $69.60 a barrel.

According to oil-tracking firm Kpler, more than 20 oil tankers carrying around 35 million barrels of crude have passed through the Strait of Hormuz since the United States and Iran reached an agreement to reopen the vital waterway.

Non-Iranian vessels had been stranded in the Arabian Gulf for more than three months after Tehran effectively shut down the shipping route at the start of the conflict. Most of those tankers are expected to reach their destinations in Asia by early August.

Banking group Citi said the worst may be over for commodity-curve trading strategies that came under pressure during the US-Iran war, after the surge in near-term oil prices hurt positions that relied on selling front-month contracts and buying longer-dated futures.

The bank added that significant de-escalation is now its base-case scenario, forecasting Brent crude to fall into a range of $60 to $65 a barrel over the next six to twelve months as oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz normalize. Citi noted that any temporary rise in oil prices during the summer should be viewed as a selling opportunity.

However, the naval forces of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warned on Thursday that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz would only be permitted through routes designated by Tehran, signaling that risks to the critical maritime corridor remain in place.

The Revolutionary Guard added that vessels violating transit instructions would face “measures,” without specifying what those measures might be.

Gold and silver prices fluctuated around key levels on Thursday, as hawkish central-bank rhetoric and inflation concerns continued to weigh on precious metals, while analysts see limited chances of a strong near-term recovery.

Spot gold stood near $3,990.17 an ounce at around 5:50 a.m. ET, after falling below the $4,000 mark in the previous session. The yellow metal briefly managed to move back above that level on Thursday before retreating later in morning trading.

Front-month US gold futures edged lower to settle at $4,006.60 an ounce. Since the start of the year, gold has fallen by around 7.5%.

Silver also came under pressure, with spot prices rising 0.1% to $57.49 an ounce on Thursday morning after recovering from earlier losses. July silver futures fell 1.2% to $57.41. Since the start of the year, silver has lost nearly 20% of its value.

Precious metals lose upward momentum

Gold and silver posted record gains in 2025, with gold jumping 66% and silver surging 135% over the year.

But despite continuing to rise at the start of 2026, trading has become more volatile. Silver futures suffered their biggest one-day loss since the 1980s in late January, while gold’s safe-haven appeal faded after the outbreak of the US-Iran war in February.

Macquarie analysts said in a note on Wednesday that the focus is now on the path of inflation and whether central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, will tighten monetary policy to contain rising prices.

They added that the end of the Middle East conflict, along with the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, pushed prices lower as gold’s safe-haven appeal declined amid expectations of higher interest rates and a stronger dollar, noting that markets are currently pricing in a US rate hike in the final quarter of the year.

Market expectations now point to a possible Federal Reserve rate hike in September, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan also raised interest rates this month in response to the energy-price shock caused by the Iran war.

Inflation and interest rates weigh on gold

Macquarie said the first meeting under new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh carried a hawkish tone, and that the central bank under his leadership could be a decisive factor in either supporting or pressuring gold prices.

It added that an expected slowdown in global growth following the Middle East fallout, followed by a gradual recovery and a later monetary-easing cycle, could push gold prices lower as investor funds move from precious metals into other assets.

The firm said investors have already started taking profits and rotating into equities, adding that renewed interest in precious metals may require a major economic event to restore momentum.

Macquarie expects spot gold to average around $4,641 an ounce in 2026, up 35% year on year, but forecasts a 9.5% decline to $4,200 in 2027, with the downtrend continuing until 2030.

It also lowered its year-end gold price forecast to $4,300 from $4,400 previously.

Source: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiygFBVV95cUxPNmtGUE5oYTZGcDI1aTNUY1RWMHlOR2dvV09xV2VrcjZfY2RMcW8xTS1rc0lWUDdWM1Y0Y0xvTmp0cGhESlVxZThKMDB5ck1ncDlJbEVEbTduM1BvU0xxVFdQTWdiMDg2SGxfZDRoT09qTU9PazFpQzE3UUc3Z21iT3Y5QVlDSFJ4c0xPdE9DbmNmWFZEbmQ3Y1ktWm95c0JXaU11eFZEVzBMOFlsYjhaV1hRVnNCZnVNM0trOUw3dmVOeDZPMTZKU1J3?oc=5