본 분석은 트럼프 행정부와 우크라이나 사이의 관계 변화가 중동의 이란 위기 및 미국-이스라엘 간의 갈등과 어떻게 연관되는지를 분석합니다. 이는 단순한 양자 관계를 넘어, 글로벌 에너지 및 해상 무역의 안정성에 직접적인 영향을 미치는 지정학적 맥락을 이해하는 데 중요합니다. 차일스 쿠프찬의 발언처럼, 과거의 대립적인 상황에서 현재의 관계는 '상당히 좋은 관계'로 변화했습니다. 이는 미국이 동맹국과의 관계를 관리하며 중동 내에서 다각적인 외교적 균형을 모색하려는 전략적 움직임의 결과로 보입니다. 이처럼 지역 분쟁이 확대될수록, 우크라이나와 같은 서방 동맹국에 대한 미국의 지지 입지는 더욱 강화되며, 이는 국제 질서 내에서 미국의 영향력을 재정립하는 데 기여합니다.

관계의 변화는 직접적으로 글로벌 경제의 핵심인 해상 무역로의 안정성에 영향을 미칩니다. 이란이 호르무즈 해협을 효과적으로 차단함으로써 발생한 분쟁은 국제 에너지 시장과 글로벌 공급망에 심각한 변동성을 초래했습니다. 60일 휴전 협정이 무효화되고 적대 행위가 재개된 것은, 해당 해협의 통제권이 불안정해졌음을 의미하며, 이는 유가 변동성 확대와 무역 비용 증가로 이어집니다. 따라서 외교적 관계의 미묘한 변화조차도 에너지 안보와 같은 실물 경제적 측면에서 즉각적인 경제적 파급 효과를 발생시키는 핵심 동인으로 작용합니다. 이는 지정학적 리스크가 어떻게 금융 시장의 변동성으로 전환되는지를 보여주는 사례입니다.

향후 상황은 이란과 미국의 대리전 양상과 이스라엘-이란 간의 긴장도가 어떻게 상호작용하는지에 달려 있습니다. 호르무즈 해협을 둘러싼 갈등이 장기화될 경우, 이는 국제 무역 질서의 재편을 촉발하며 새로운 형태의 블록화된 지정학적 구도를 형성할 위험이 있습니다. 미국이 동맹국과의 관계를 관리하는 동시에 중동의 복잡한 다자 외교를 성공적으로 이끌어내기 위해서는, 단기적인 휴전보다는 해협 통제에 대한 보다 실질적인 국제적 합의가 필요합니다. 따라서 외교적 관계의 개선이 실제적인 안보와 경제적 안정으로 이어지기 위해서는, 강대국 간의 전략적 이해관계가 충돌하지 않는 새로운 협력 프레임워크 구축이 필수적입니다. 이러한 복잡한 역학 관계 속에서 투자자들은 지정학적 이벤트가 단기적인 시장 변동성을 넘어 장기적인 자산 배분에 미치는 영향을 면밀히 분석해야 할 것입니다.

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Laura Loomer, Lindsey Graham and the deepening Iran crisis: what’s behind Trump’s reset with Zelenskyy? - The Guardian

The US administration has struck a warmer tone of late as Ukraine has shown its value as an ally in the Middle East

As leadership pairings go, Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy is not a match made in heaven.

It is a far cry from the warm rapport and kindred spiritedness that defined Ronald Reagan’s relationship with Margaret Thatcher , or even the guarded pragmatic friendliness Reagan forged with Mikhail Gorbachev to effectively end the cold war .

Yet from a calamitous start that saw Trump publicly ambush and then virtually expel Zelenskyy from the White House after an explosive meeting in February 2025, relations between the US president and his Ukrainian counterpart have taken an unexpectedly warm turn.

The thaw has coincided with the US-Israeli war with Iran – and appears to have accelerated as Trump has struggled to end the conflict.

A memorandum of understanding, signed in June and designed to institute a 60-day ceasefire, has been rendered moot as hostilities have resumed over the status of the strait of Hormuz, the strategically vital waterway that Iran has effectively closed from the start of the war – threatening the stability of the global economy.

“There’s no question that he’s warmed up to Zelenskyy,” said Charles Kupchan , a senior fellow at the Council of Foreign Relations and a former White House adviser on European affairs. “We’ve gone from a phase in which he was throwing Zelenskyy out of the Oval Office, and turning his back on him, to a situation today where they seem to have a reasonably good relationship, and where there have now been a succession of meetings that have gone well.”

This week, the pair met once more at the White House after Zelenskyy travelled to Washington for the funeral of Lindsey Graham, the Republican senator who had staunchly backed Ukraine in its war with Russia, even as Trump and his Maga movement all but threw in their lot with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin .

The encounter followed another at this month’s Nato summit in Ankara , when Trump strikingly praised Zelenskyy – whom he had once labelled a “dictator” – and said he would grant licenses for Ukraine to develop its own Patriot missile interceptors, although he cast doubt on that promise at a cabinet meeting on Friday.

It also came on the heels of an arguably even more remarkable occurrence: the meeting in Kyiv between Zelenskyy and Laura Loomer , the far-right social media influencer known to have sway with Trump, and who has previously vocally supported Russia.

After meeting the Ukrainian leader, Loomer said she had been “bamboozled” by Russian propaganda and admitted having believed “a lot of untrue things” about Ukraine. She also said she had followed the meeting with a phone call to Trump and that her change of view was affecting sentiment across the Maga movement.

This sea change may have several causes, from Trump’s mercurial nature and preference for backing a winner to Putin’s stubborn refusal to accept several favorable peace deals after Trump vowed to settle the conflict “on day one” of his second presidency.

Yet one potential factor stands out among all others.

While administration officials have offered no explanation, the accelerating thaw between Trump and Zelenskyy has coincided with the US’s deepening difficulties in concluding the war with Iran’s hardline Islamic regime that Trump launched, along with Israel, on 28 February.

“At a moment when he is stuck in a war, faced with bad military options, and suddenly the Ukrainians are approaching him no longer asking for American charity but offering help, I find it quite plausible that that could be a reason, amongst many probably, as to why Trump’s attitude appears to have shifted in a rather strong way,” said Trita Parsi , an Iranian analyst who is vice-president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

Tehran’s retaliation with drone attacks on US military bases and infrastructure in allied Gulf kingdoms has served to illustrate the shared interest between Kyiv and Washington. Ukraine , too, came under sustained attack from Iranian Shahed drones after Tehran supplied them to Moscow in the early stages of Russia’s invasion of the country in 2022.

Ukraine has since responded by becoming a world leader in defensive drone technology , an innovation it has trumpeted to the US and its Gulf allies since they came under fire from the weapons as Iran responded to the military onslaught on its territory.

Zelenskyy told UK MPs in March that 200 Ukrainian military experts had been dispatched to 11 countries across the Gulf – including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait – to advise on how to combat Shahed drones.

Last weekend, Ukraine was accused of trying to merge the two conflicts after it struck an Iranian commercial vessel on the Caspian Sea. Kyiv justified the strike by saying that the ship was being used to transport arms to Russia. Iran said the strike had killed an Iranian sailor and threatened retaliation.

Preparing to meet Trump in Washington, Zelenskyy said Iran had “attacked” Ukraine by supplying weaponry to Russia.

“What do you expect, if Iran transferred new technologies to Russia from the first year of the war,” he told Sky News. “These were Shahed drones. They transferred thousands of these drones in the first year of the war. Then they issued licenses. What did they do? Did they attack us? I think so.”

Zelenskyy also vowed to share Ukrainian intelligence that he said showed Russia giving Tehran help to hit US targets. “Since the beginning of July, we have recorded active Russian satellite surveillance of the Gulf states and US military facilities located there,” he posted on X . “These images subsequently appear in Iran … There is clear correlation between Russia’s satellite imagery of these sites and Iranian strikes – both before the attacks, in preparation for them, and afterward, to assess the damage.”

Kupchan, of the Council of Foreign Relations, said Zelenskyy was being a “good salesman” in persuading Trump that Ukraine was an ally worth supporting, by contributing help that the US needs – thus appealing to the US president’s transactional instincts.

“Zelensky has done a very good job of communicating to Trump that he is going to help him on Iran,” said Kupchan. “He travelled in the Gulf and said, ‘I’m going to help you deal with Iran and drones, because we’ve been there and done that.’

“It’s an investment in his relationships with Trump, and with Europe, because he’s demonstrating Ukraine’s value as an ally. And I think Trump, who is endlessly transactional, might actually agree to help Ukraine a bit more because Ukraine has stepped up when America’s chips are down in the war with Iran.

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