미국-이란 협상과 중동 전쟁이 글로벌 경제에 미치는 영향
Trump hails Iran deal but conflict continues to cast long shadow over global economy - The Guardian
미국-이란 합의로 원유 가격이 배럴당 80달러를 밑돌면서 에너지 부문에 부담이 될 전망입니다.
핵심 요약
미국-이란 협상 이후 원유 가격이 80달러를 밑돌았으며, 중동 국가들의 GDP는 올해 2.6% 감소할 전망입니다.
핵심요약
- 원유 가격이 80달러를 밑돌았으며, 이는 전쟁 초기 이후 처음
- 중동 국가들의 GDP는 올해 2.6% 감소할 전망
- 미국 주유소 가격은 전년 대비 1달러 높게 형성
- 미국 경제 성장은 지속되지만, 에너지 가격 상승이 소비자에게 부담으로 작용
도입
이번 분석은 미국-이란 협상과 중동 전쟁이 글로벌 경제에 미치는 영향을 심층적으로 탐구합니다. 특히 에너지 가격 변동성과 지역별 경제 영향도가 투자자들에게 중요한 시사점을 제공합니다. 이 분석을 통해 투자자는 지역별 리스크를 평가하고 포트폴리오를 조정하는 데 필요한 정보를 얻을 수 있습니다.
본문 1: 에너지 가격 변동성의 시장 영향
원유 가격이 80달러를 밑돌았으며, 이는 전쟁 초기 이후 처음입니다. 이는 중동 지역에서 평화 협상이 진행되면서 공급 불안정이 해소될 가능성이 높아졌기 때문입니다. 에너지 가격 변동성은 글로벌 시장 안정성에 직접적인 영향을 미치며, 특히 원자재 의존도가 높은 산업에 큰 영향을 미칩니다. 투자자들은 에너지 가격 변동성이 기업 수익성에 미치는 영향을 고려하여 포트폴리오를 조정해야 합니다. 또한, 원유 가격 하락은 소비자 물가 상승 압력을 완화할 수 있는 긍정적인 신호로 읽힙니다.
본문 2: 중동 경제의 장기적 전망
옥스퍼드 경제연구소는 중동 국가들의 GDP가 올해 2.6% 감소할 전망입니다. 이는 중동 지역에서 지속되는 갈등과 경제 제재가 지역 경제에 미치는 영향이 장기화될 가능성이 높아졌기 때문입니다. 중동 국가들은 에너지 수출에 크게 의존하고 있어, 경제 성장률 하락은 국가 재정에도 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 투자자들은 중동 국가들의 경제 지표를 주시하며, 장기적인 투자 전략을 수립해야 합니다. 또한, 중동 국가들의 경제 위축은 글로벌 공급망에도 영향을 미칠 수 있어, 공급망 관리에도 신경을 써야 합니다.
본문 3: 미국 경제의 강점과 약점
미국 경제 성장은 지속되지만, 에너지 가격 상승이 소비자에게 부담으로 작용하고 있습니다. 미국은 에너지 수출국으로, 에너지 가격 상승은 수출 수익을 증가시킬 수 있습니다. 그러나, 소비자 물가 상승은 연방준비제도의 금리 인상 압력을 높일 수 있어, 금리 인상 시기가 예상보다 앞당겨질 가능성도 있습니다. 투자자들은 미국 경제의 강점과 약점을 종합적으로 고려하여 포트폴리오를 조정해야 합니다. 특히, 에너지 가격 변동성과 금리 인상 시기를 고려한 리스크 관리 전략이 중요합니다.
결론
이번 분석을 통해 미국-이란 협상과 중동 전쟁이 글로벌 경제에 미치는 영향을 심층적으로 탐구했습니다. 에너지 가격 변동성과 지역별 경제 영향도가 투자자들에게 중요한 시사점을 제공한다는 점이 핵심입니다. 향후 투자자들은 에너지 가격 변동성과 중동 경제 전망을 주시하며, 포트폴리오를 조정해야 합니다. 또한, 미국 경제의 강점과 약점을 종합적으로 고려한 리스크 관리 전략이 필요합니다.
Original Article
Trump hails Iran deal but conflict continues to cast long shadow over global economy - The Guardian
As the price of crude oil falls governments are counting the costs of the war in the Middle East
Hailing his Iran deal this week amid the excess of Versailles, Donald Trump urged sceptics to take Wall Street’s word for its success. “There is nothing as smart as the market – and the market loves it,” he said, claiming credit for ending the economic chaos that had kicked off when he started bombing Iran in late February. Without the agreement, he said, “the alternative would be a worldwide depression”.
By the weekend, the outlook was less optimistic after planned US-Iran peace talks in Switzerland were abruptly called off , then reinstated, and Iran said Israeli bombing in Jordan meant it was justified in closing the strait of Hormuz again. Still, hopes persist that the sea passage carrying about 20% of the world’s oil supplies will reopen fully in the coming days and weeks.
If the oil does start to flow more freely again, it should forestall the shortages of key products, such as jet fuel, that some analysts had predicted would occur if the war persisted.
Energy markets are already anticipating the hoped-for resurgence in supply: the cost of a barrel of crude oil dropped below $80 a barrel after the agreement was announced, for the first time since the early days of the war.
Yet governments are still counting the economic costs of a war they did not want any part of.
The severity of the impact varies by region. Gulf economies, which have seen exports of their main revenue-raiser choked off and found themselves the target of Iranian bombs, are expected to plunge into recession. Analysts at Oxford Economics are expecting GDP in the region to decline by 2.6% this year.
Economic growth in the US, now a net energy exporter, has remained strong, with stock markets bolstered by the AI investment boom, and SpaceX just the first of a series of mega market launches expected this year.
But American drivers are paying $1 a gallon more for petrol than a year ago, and economy-wide inflation in the US has surged to 4.2% , its highest rate in three years – news that Trump greeted by claiming: “I love the inflation.”
Trump’s newly appointed pick as Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, was chosen in the hope he would deliver a string of interest rate cuts.
In fact, Warsh is likely to face pressure to raise borrowing costs in the coming months. Dario Perkins, the head of global research at the consultancy TS Lombard, said that of the leading central banks, “as the economy has remained strong and inflation has increased, the Fed is probably going to increase rates the most, maybe as much as four times (to a range of 4.5% to 5%) by the end of next year”.
He said the US economy had remained strong thanks to consumers running down their savings to continue spending, while shoppers in the UK and continental Europe had been more circumspect. “The euro consumer, while they have savings, are more worried about the war and its outcome,” he said.
In the EU, which is heavily reliant on gas imports, the European Central Bank (ECB) has already raised interest rates for the first time since 2023, in the hope of choking off surging inflation.
The impact on prices in the UK has been somewhat more muted, with inflation hitting 2.8% in April and interest rates on hold for the moment – but confidence has been hit hard and the jobs market remains weak.
Sanjay Raja, the chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, said inflation would rise further – perhaps by up to another percentage point – in the coming months. “All of the data suggests that there’s something coming – we are going to see some pressure.” However, he expects the downward effect on growth to be relatively modest – knocking up to a quarter of a percentage point off GDP growth.
Many developing countries have been forced to ration fuel in the face of rocketing prices and are braced for the impact of surging fertiliser costs over the coming months.
This “demand destruction” – cutting back on usage when prices become unaffordable – may be part of the reason why oil prices have not surged even higher since February.
Raja argues it is also because countries including China have been able to rely on strategic oil supplies, some of which may not have been known about by analysts.
Despite Trump’s bullishness, his tentative agreement with Iran leaves many questions unanswered and will not immediately draw a line under the economic damage caused by the war.
Ryan Sweet, the chief global economist at the consultancy Oxford Economics, said: “The difficulty of quantifying the economic cost is that the economic timeline doesn’t equal the military timeline, so we’re still going to be feeling the economic impact of this through the rest of this year and potentially early next.”
He pointed out that while Trump had stressed that the strait of Hormuz would reopen, the details remained hazy. “There’s still the risk that tolls are imposed on ships, or the number of ships that go through the strait is a lot less than before the conflict – there’s still a lot of uncertainty around that.”
Fears remain that hostilities could yet be reignited – for example, if Trump comes to doubt that Tehran is serious about winding down its nuclear plans.
Trump is also facing some pushback against the deal at home, even from Republicans. Neil Shearing, the chief global economist at the consultancy Capital Economics, said policymakers should view the agreement as fragile.
“It’s a good start. But there are several ways the deal can fall apart. Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah and Lebanon, Iran exploiting its chokehold over the strait of Hormuz, and a dispute over how to limit Iran’s nuclear ambitions.”
He added that the oil markets may be too sanguine about the next few months. “Our modelling of the oil price shows that prices of Brent crude should be about $90 a barrel in the third quarter and $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter. However, the market has raced ahead and is already pricing oil at $80. That’s a Goldilocks outcome to the war when there is plenty more negotiating to be done.”