트럼프, 이란에 제재 재개 시사: 전쟁 종식 전략 좌절
Trump returns to sanctions for Iran as other strategies to end his war fizzle - Sowetan
금융 제재의 효과에 대한 지정학적 불확실성이 글로벌 자산에 대해 균형 잡힌 위험과 보상을 창출합니다.
핵심 요약
트럼프 행정부는 이란의 300% 인플레이션을 근거로 경제적 압박을 통해 전쟁을 끝내려 합니다.
핵심요약
- 트럼프 행정부는 이란의 경제적 붕괴를 유도하여 전쟁을 종식시키려 합니다.
- 이란의 인플레이션은 300%에 달한다고 주장됩니다.
- 이란 전쟁으로 인해 전 세계 석유 공급의 약 20%가 포함된 호르무즈 해협의 운송이 중단되었습니다.
- 석유 가격 상승은 호르무즈 해협 통항 선박 감소에 따른 투자자 해석으로 발생했습니다.
도입
본 기사는 도널드 트럼프 행정부가 이란에 대한 금융 제재와 경제적 압박을 전쟁 종식의 주요 수단으로 삼으려는 전략적 변화를 다룹니다. 이는 단순히 군사적 충돌을 넘어 경제적 취약점을 활용하여 지정학적 목표를 달성하려는 새로운 접근 방식을 보여줍니다. 투자자들은 이러한 경제적 압박이 실제 분쟁 해결에 어떤 영향을 미칠지, 그리고 에너지 시장에 미치는 파급 효과를 면밀히 분석할 필요가 있습니다.
본문 1: 경제적 압박의 논리
트럼프 대통령은 이란이 재정적으로 붕괴하고 있으며 '300%의 인플레이션'을 겪고 있다고 주장하며, 이를 통해 이란 지도부가 핵 프로그램 포기 요구에 굴복할 것이라고 강조합니다. 이는 기존의 제재가 장기적인 전략에 불과했고 즉각적인 전쟁 중단에는 효과적이지 않았다는 인식을 반영합니다. 경제적 압박은 군사적 행동만큼이나 강력한 외교적 도구로 활용될 수 있다는 논리입니다. 즉, 경제적 고통을 극대화하여 협상 테이블로 이끌어내려는 시도입니다. 이러한 접근 방식은 기존의 군사적 대립 구도를 경제적 상호 의존성이라는 새로운 차원으로 확장시키고 있습니다.
본문 2: 에너지 시장과 지정학적 위험
트럼프의 발언은 호르무즈 해협을 통과하는 선박의 감소로 이어져 국제 유가 상승을 유발했습니다. 이 해협은 전 세계 석유 공급의 약 20%를 운송하는 핵심 통로이므로, 이 지역의 불안정성은 글로벌 에너지 공급망에 직접적인 영향을 미칩니다. 이는 단순히 이란과의 분쟁을 넘어, 에너지 안보와 글로벌 공급망의 취약성을 동시에 드러냅니다. 석유 가격 상승은 다른 국가들, 특히 미국 내에서도 불안정성을 야기하며 인플레이션 위험을 증대시킵니다. 따라서 경제적 압박이 에너지 시장의 변동성을 심화시키는 부수적인 위험 요인으로 작용하고 있습니다.
본문 3: 장기적 전망과 위험 요소
현재 상황은 군사적 교착 상태와 더불어 경제적 취약성이 결합되어 복잡한 장기적 전망을 제시합니다. 트럼프의 전략이 성공하기 위해서는 이란의 경제적 붕괴가 실제로 외교적 양보로 이어져야 하며, 이는 예측하기 어려운 변수들을 내포합니다. 또한, 무기 비축량 감소와 협상의 정체는 압박만으로는 즉각적인 돌파구를 마련하기 어렵다는 점을 시사합니다. 따라서 경제적 압박은 단기적인 효과를 가져올 수 있으나, 장기적인 평화 협정 달성에는 추가적인 외교적 노력이 필수적입니다. 향후 국제 사회는 이란의 경제적 상황과 에너지 흐름에 대한 지속적인 모니터링을 통해 잠재적인 지정학적 위험을 평가해야 할 것입니다.
결론
트럼프 행정부의 금융 압박 전략은 경제적 취약점을 활용하여 외교적 목표를 달성하려는 시도이지만, 이는 에너지 시장의 변동성과 지정학적 위험을 증폭시키는 양면성을 가집니다. 성공적인 평화 협정 달성을 위해서는 경제적 압박과 더불어 실질적인 외교적 해법이 병행되어야 할 것입니다. 향후 국제 사회는 이란의 경제 상황과 주요 해협의 에너지 흐름을 면밀히 관찰하며 복합적인 위험 요소를 관리해야 할 전망입니다.
Original Article
Trump returns to sanctions for Iran as other strategies to end his war fizzle - Sowetan
US President Donald Trump likes to say he started his war with Iran after 50 years of economic pressure had failed to stop its nuclear weapons ambitions, but he’s now betting another financial squeeze can bring an end to that war.
The Trump administration is hoping months of bombing have pushed Iran’s economy to a breaking point that will force its leadership to cave in to demands to end its nuclear programme and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz to oil and natural gas tankers.
The president on Monday said since Iran is seeking compensation as part of any peace talks, he intends to demand the same for the US side. It’s part of a larger pivot this weekend by Trump to argue Iran is on the cusp of financially collapsing, even though it has already endured decades of financial sanctions, which are often a longer-term strategy rather than an immediate tool of warfare that can halt a conflict.
The shift comes as US stockpiles of key weapons have dwindled and stop-start talks seem again to have stalled. However, Trump insisted the pressure can lead to a breakthrough.
“Yeah, they can make trouble but they’re broke,” Trump told reporters. “They have no money. Iran is broke, totally broke. They’re not paying their soldiers. They have inflation of 300%.”
Inflation is running high in Iran, though Trump’s estimates were higher than what administration officials have been citing to reporters. The prospect of a longer war also carries inflation risks for other nations, including the US, where the war and higher petrol prices are unpopular.
Crude oil prices climbed on Monday as investors interpreted Trump’s comments as a sign that fewer ships would be traversing the Strait of Hormuz, continuing to limit global supplies of gasoline, jet fuel, natural gas and other forms of energy. The Iran war largely closed the waterway involved in shipping about 20% of global oil supplies before the conflict, and attempts to reopen the strait have been short-lived as it has become a source of leverage for the Iranians in negotiations.
Iran does not appear to be publicly intimidated by the prospect of more financial sanctions.
“Whenever Washington proves itself incapable of pursuing diplomacy, it retreats into sanctions, and whenever those sanctions fail to produce results it simply increases the dose,” Esmaeil Baqaei, spokesperson for Iran’s foreign ministry, said on social media. “The real risk is that American politicians, clinging to this bad habit, will instead strangle their own remaining chances of a less humiliating exit from a crisis of their own making.”
The US president didn’t say what additional financial pressure would be applied, but the administration has since April 16 been engaged in what it calls “operation economic fury” against Iran. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent called the component the “financial equivalent” of a bombing campaign as the countries that buy oil from Iran or bank with it could be sanctioned.
However, one problem with this pivot is that sanctions are unable to bite as quickly as the impact of the largely shuttered strait, said Richard Nephew, a senior research scholar at Columbia University who helped direct the Iran sanctions strategy during former US president Barack Obama’s administration.
Nephew stressed the value of sanctions as a tool is limited because Trump has not articulated clear strategic goals for the war, at times stressing Iran can’t have a nuclear weapon, then emphasising the strait and then talking about ballistic missiles. Instead, Trump has engaged in a series of aerial assaults and a level of destruction that has not produced the quick end he initially promised.
“Economic pressure is a possible element in his strategy, but he’s yet to explain the purpose,” Nephew said. “Trump has systematically weakened his own hand through his inadequate use of force, inarticulate elucidation of an objective and vacillation on negotiations.”
The sanctions and ongoing US naval blockade of Iranian ports give the US economic and financial leverage, said Juan Zarate, a deputy national security adviser during former president George Bush’s administration. Zarate said the US sanctions threatening third-party countries doing business with Iran also have an impact. But these things take time, he said.
“The ultimate question will be how far the US is willing to go to constrict Iran’s oil trade and threaten third countries with severe sanctions, and whether it has the patience to test whether the economic pain will change the regime’s behaviour,” Zarate said.
Trump’s latest pivot to economic issues with Iran is something of a flip-flop. Trump has long derided past presidents who used sanctions to limit Iran’s economic ability to pay for its military and nuclear development. In a speech last week in Las Vegas, he defended the bombing, missiles and drone attacks that began on February 28 by indicating the sanctions from previous administrations that date back to November 1979 had failed to succeed.
“It’s been 47 years, but really it’s been 50 years because they’ve been saying 47 for three years,” Trump said. “No other president has done what you should have done a long time ago because Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.”
The Iranian economy has suffered gravely because of the war, with the International Monetary Fund estimating the overall economy shrinks by 5.4% and the Iranian government recently reporting an annual inflation rate of 88.6%. The US treasury department said average loadings of Iranian oil have decreased from 1.8-million barrels per day before the war to less than 500,000 barrels per day over the past month.
The US economy, the world’s largest, has continued to grow, but inflation is elevated and borrowing costs have risen in ways that have hurt Trump’s popularity and led to disapproval of the Iran war.
A senior US official, insisting on anonymity to discuss strategy, said the US military has set back Iran’s ability to produce, sell and ship oil and other energy resources. The administration sees the naval blockade of the strait and sanctions as effective and views Trump as having additional options that can be cranked harder in the weeks and months ahead.
Trump is essentially arguing US voters are better able to tolerate any economic inconveniences than Iranians, who have been in a state of economic hardship for years.
“It’s not just what the military can do. We’ve got the most powerful economy in the world as well,” defence secretary Pete Hegseth said on Monday in a joint appearance with Bessent. “When you’ve got a motivated treasury secretary who can pull a lot of levers because he knows how to do it, you can put a lot of pressure on adversaries.”