핵심요약

• 중국 해상안전청 선박 3척이 바시 해협을 통과하여 대만 동쪽에서 활동
• 이는 중국 선박이 '제1도선' 동쪽에 관찰된 첫 번째 사례
• 중국의 활동은 대만을 향한 위협으로 해석될 수 있음
• 중국은 대만과의 '통일을' 강제로 이행할 것이라고 반복해 왔음

도입

이번 기사는 중국이 태평양 지역에서의 군사적·정치적 영향력을 확대하려는 전략적 움직임을 보여주며, 특히 한국과 미국을 포함한 주변 국가들의 안보 불안을 고조시키고 있습니다. 중국이 '살라미 슬라이싱' 전략을 통해 점진적으로 영역을 확장하고 있음을 보여주며, 이는 국제 관계와 군사 균형에 미칠 수 있는 영향을 분석하는 데 중요합니다.

본문 1: 중국 해상안전청의 동해안 진출과 전략적 의미

중국 해상안전청의 선박 3척이 바시 해협을 통과하여 대만 동쪽에서 활동한 것은 중국이 '제1도선'을 넘어 영역을 확장하려는 의지를 보여줍니다. 이는 중국이 국제법상 명확하지 않은 영역에 대한 주권을 주장하며, 점차적으로 군사적·경제적 통제력을 강화하려는 전략적 움직임을 반영합니다. 특히, 대만은 중국과의 갈등이 군사적 충돌로 이어질 수 있는 가장 큰 위협 요인 중 하나로, 이번 활동은 대만과의 관계를 더욱 긴장시키는 요인이 될 수 있습니다.

본문 2: 태평양 지역 안보 균형의 변화와 국제적 반응

중국의 이번 활동은 태평양 지역 안보 균형을 변화시킬 수 있는 중요한 신호입니다. 미국과 일본을 포함한 주변 국가들은 중국이 제1도선을 넘어 활동하는 것을 경계하며, 이는 지역 군사적 긴장을 고조시킬 수 있습니다. 특히, 미국은 중국과의 관계에서 가장 큰 장애물로 태완 문제를 언급하며, 이번 활동은 미국과 중국 간의 관계에 미칠 수 있는 영향을 고려해야 합니다. 또한, 국제사회는 중국이 국제법과 해양법에 위배되는 행위를 지속할 경우, 더욱 강력한 대응을 할 수 있는 가능성을 열어두었습니다.

본문 3: 중장기적 전망과 리스크 분석

중국의 '살라미 슬라이싱' 전략은 단기적으로는 지역 안보를 불안정하게 만들 수 있지만, 장기적으로는 중국이 태평양 지역에서의 영향력을 확대하는 데 성공할 수 있는 가능성을 높입니다. 이는 한국을 포함한 주변 국가들이 중국과의 관계를 재검토하고, 군사적·외교적 대응 전략을 강화할 필요성을 강조합니다. 또한, 국제사회는 중국이 국제법과 해양법을 준수하지 않는 경우, 더욱 강력한 제재와 대응을 할 수 있는 가능성을 열어두어야 합니다.

결론

중국의 이번 활동은 태평양 지역에서의 전략적 움직임을 보여주며, 주변 국가들의 안보 불안을 고조시키고 있습니다. 이는 중국이 국제법과 해양법을 준수하지 않는 경우, 더욱 강력한 대응이 필요할 수 있음을 시사합니다. 향후 중국이 태완 문제와 관련된 군사적·외교적 움직임을 지속할 경우, 국제사회의 대응이 더욱 강화될 가능성이 있습니다.

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원문 링크: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijgFBVV95cUxNaGZTdjR3SkZtX0dIMU5mQ0N2bzJadkRaRHFnd0JNeXk0RE9mRjlQYm5tWWxncE5SSWU5bng5ZkRuWGFpejZWbnMxRW05dGhrTE1qUElqT0wwX1dhOGJqOEx1SU9zeU51aTByYUFDN2Y5WnpGR0EwX3pxTDdDTmtsY0F0OEI2b1U0V1RUQ0JB?oc=5

‘Salami slicing’: How China is trying to increase control in the Pacific - CNN

In a span of just a few weeks, China’s ships have carried out “law enforcement” activities farther from its mainland than ever before, mapped a highly sensitive seabed and conducted “research” inside a highly contested lagoon more than 500 miles from its shores. China has long been accused of “salami-slicing” to advance its territorial claims in the Pacific, taking small steps well below the threshold of kinetic war to assert its control over areas where its claims to sovereignty under international law are unclear at best – and illegal at worst. Analysts say the latest moves are an attempt to advance its presence beyond an island chain seen by Beijing and Washington as a critical line of control in the western Pacific. They add they could be particularly worrying for Taiwan, the self-ruled island China has vowed to “reunify” with one day – by force if necessary. The flurry of maritime maneuvers followed a visit to Beijing by US President Donald Trump that was full of bonhomie, but which Chinese leader Xi Jinping also used to make one thing very clear: the biggest issue that could derail US-China relations was Taiwan. Earlier this month three vessels from the China’s Maritime Safety Agency (MSA) a civilian law enforcement organization sailed through the Bashi Channel between the Philippines and Taiwan to begin law enforcement and mapping activities in waters east of Taiwan. Observers say it’s the first time MSA vessels have been observed east of the “First Island Chain” that stretches from southern Japan through Taiwan and the Philippines and along the edges of the southern South China Sea along Borneo to Singapore. Ray Powell, director of the SeaLight project at Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, which focuses on China’s gray-zone tactics, called it the “Bashi Breakout.” Beijing “is essentially saying we have jurisdiction over this area on the other side of the First Island Chain. That’s pretty significant,” he told CNN. “This is the first time we’ve seen them make some kind of a sovereignty patrol outside of the 9-Dash/10-Dash Line,” Powell told CNN. That line refers to Beijing’s controversial claim over the majority of the South China Sea that its neighbors hotly dispute and which in 2016 the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled had no legal basis. Beijing was trying to “create new facts on the water,” he told CNN. China’s state-run tabloid Global Times called the movement of the MSA ships “a sovereignty declaration with both legal significance and political signaling.” Taiwan challenge Much of that signaling will have been aimed at Taiwan and its 23 million people. Through Yuyuan Tantian – a semi-official social media account run by China’s national broadcaster that Beijing often uses to leak out information to gauge international reaction – China said that its MSA vessels had mapped the seabed east of Taiwan for the first time. That pushed back on foreign assertions that China lacks the ability to exert its authority over the waters, the account said in a post. “The waters east of Taiwan Island will constitute our ‘nearshore waters’ — the very waters where we maintain a presence and exercise jurisdiction and governance,” it said. Taiwan President Lai Ching-te said the reasons behind the MSA mission were clear: “Their (Beijing’s) real objective is to expand,” he said. A Taiwanese security official said Beijing was using the MSA ships to try to create a false impression that it has de facto jurisdiction over Taiwan. Lai said that Beijing continues to “innovate” ways to advance its territorial claims and threaten Taiwan and Indo-Pacific countries. “China’s threats towards Taiwan know no limits,” he told reporters at a recent briefing. Regarding the waters east of Taiwan, China made its first slice of that salami in 2023, when it expanded the so-called 9-Dash Line that encompassed its claims in the South China Sea to 10 dashes, with the 10th being east of Taiwan. The People’s Liberation Army Navy has in the past conducted exercises east of Taiwan, but analysts say in the long term, the MSA ships and non-military vessels like them may be the bigger threat to the status quo because they seem less threatening. Essentially, the MSA vessels perform policing roles to enforce environmental and maritime regulations. “I think that’s their near-term target… to establish themselves as the constabulary” of the sea approaches to Taiwan, Powell said. During the recent sailing, the Chinese MSA ships did issue radio challenges to commercial vessels heading to Taiwan, the island’s coast guard has said. The next step – the “tightening of the boa constrictor” – could be to actually stop those vessels or force them into Chinese ports before they can go onto Taiwan, Powell said. Targeting ships like liquid natural gas (LNG) carriers could send an ominous message to Taipei – which relies on imports for almost all of its energy needs – he said. “Something to let Taiwan know we can starve you out when it comes to LNG,” and let that slowly progress to the point where Beijing can control Taiwan’s energy imports, according to Powell. Additionally, the “nearshore waters” designation floated by the Yuyuan Tantian account, if made by an official government agency, could mean China could treat these waters as sovereign territory, experts said. “Foreign vessels have no right of entry without permission of the nation with sovereignty over these near-shore waters, said Carl Schuster, a former director of the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center. Foreign powers with interests in Taiwan are taking notice. “China’s actions are deeply destabilizing,” ​a US State Department spokesperson said regarding reports that Chinese Coast Guard vessels were harassing commercial ships, Reuters reported. And Britain, France and Germany, in a rare joint statement from their de facto embassies in Taipei, expressed “concern” over “novel Chinese activity in the waters east of Taiwan.” “These actions threaten regional stability and the freedom of navigation and safety of international shipping,” said the statement from the European powers, which, like the US, do not have formal diplomatic ties to Taiwan. Schuster said the mapping operation off Taiwan has military implications, too. “It will improve the PLA Navy’s ability to operate its submarines and task groups in those waters. It will also give them a very accurate picture of the undersea cables, any exploitable resources and bottom features that China can exploit to advantage,” Schuster said. The analysts said recent talks between Japan and the Philippines over overlapping claims in their exclusive economic zones east of Taiwan may have been the impetus for the MSA mission east of Tawain. Powell said China has such operations lined up and planned well in advance and waits for such triggering events. “Beijing sensed an opportunity, and moved quickly to call the talks completely illegal and void,” he wrote on the SeaLight blog. The Taiwanese security official echoed that sentiment. Over the last decade, China has taken advantage of multiple strategic windows and engaged in expansionist military and gray-zone activities in the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, they said. “It will be a grave misreading if you only look at China’s regional activities through the lenses” of China-Taiwan tensions, the official said, adding that Japan and the Philippines are bearing the brunt of Beijing’s regional ambitions, too. CNN has asked China’s MSA for comment. ‘Research vessel ruse’ In the South China Sea, the recent focus has been on Scarborough Shoal, an uninhabited rock with a central lagoon 140 miles (220 kilometers) west of the main Philippine island of Luzon and around 530 miles from China’s Hainan province. The feature sits well within the Philippines EEZ, but is effectively controlled by China, which has maintained an almost constant Coast Guard presence near it since 2012, according to the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Recently, a small floating structure appeared on satellite photos near the entrance to the lagoon, raising alarm in and protests from the Philippines. The South China Sea tribunal in 2016 in the Hague has ruled that China cannot legally occupy the shoal. Later pictures showed the structure being towed within the lagoon. China claimed the floating structure was conducting maritime research before saying it had been withdrawn last week. Powell tends to agree with China’s explanation – for now. But they could eventually move on to something larger and permanent, he said. That’s the worry of Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, who told the Financial Times last week China has used the research vessel ruse before, pointing to the string of South China Sea islands and atolls that have been turned into military bases, despite a pledge from leader Xi Jinping during a 2015 visit to the White House not to do so. “If they … lied before, they can lie now,” Teodoro told the FT. Meanwhile, the US Embassy in Manila on Tuesday said it was giving the Philippines four sea-going drones worth $13 million, in part to help the country “monitor and respond to maritime challenges,” including “gray-zone activities and threats to freedom of navigation.” Protests from Washington and other capitals didn’t slow China’s island buildup, and Beijing has learned from that experience, Powell said. “We can slice a piece off the salami and that sets conditions for the next piece. This is their opportunity to slice off that little piece,” he said of the actions east of Taiwan. Powell says the possibility of concrete action by the MSA or the China Coast Guard to keep ships from calling in Taiwan, or construction of new facilities on Scarborough Shoal, is “the thing that would keep me up at night.” “My fear would be that the response from others would be a shrug,” he said. And that may mean the last piece of salami has been sliced. Advantage China.

Source: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijgFBVV95cUxNaGZTdjR3SkZtX0dIMU5mQ0N2bzJadkRaRHFnd0JNeXk0RE9mRjlQYm5tWWxncE5SSWU5bng5ZkRuWGFpejZWbnMxRW05dGhrTE1qUElqT0wwX1dhOGJqOEx1SU9zeU51aTByYUFDN2Y5WnpGR0EwX3pxTDdDTmtsY0F0OEI2b1U0V1RUQ0JB?oc=5