핵심요약

• 투입 비용 급등: 인산 비료 가격은 10년 전 톤당 470달러에서 현재 900달러 이상으로 상승했습니다.
• 재정적 손실: 정부 지원이 없을 경우, 농가들은 올해 310억 달러, 2027년에는 320억 달러의 손실을 예상합니다.
• 작물별 손실: 옥수수 생산자는 올해 1에이커당 131달러, 2027년에는 167달러의 손실이 예상됩니다.
• 장기적 전망: 대부분의 주요 밭작물은 2027년에 6년 연속 마이너스 수익을 기록할 것으로 전망됩니다.

도입

본 기사는 중동 분쟁과 무역 갈등이 미국 농업 부문에 미치는 직접적인 비용 인상과 재정적 영향을 분석합니다. 이는 단순한 농산물 가격 변동을 넘어, 지정학적 리스크와 인플레이션이 실물 경제의 핵심 부문에 어떻게 전이되는지를 보여줍니다. 투자자들은 이러한 비용 압박이 농업 부문의 수익성과 장기적인 생산 안정성에 미치는 영향을 면밀히 살펴볼 필요가 있습니다.

본문 1: 지정학적 리스크와 투입 비용의 연쇄 효과

이란 전쟁으로 인한 유가 및 비료 가격의 급등은 미국 농업 부문에 직접적인 비용 압박을 가하고 있습니다. 농업 생산에 필수적인 연료와 비료의 가격 상승은 생산 비용을 급격히 증가시켜 농가들의 수익성을 악화시키고 있습니다. 예를 들어, 인산 비료 가격은 10년 전 톤당 470달러에서 현재 900달러 이상으로 치솟았습니다. 이러한 비용 증가는 단순히 단기적인 인플레이션을 넘어, 농업 생산의 구조적인 비용 기반을 변화시키고 있습니다. 이는 농업 부문이 지정학적 사건에 매우 취약하며, 국제 에너지 및 원자재 시장의 변동성이 국내 농가 경제에 즉각적으로 반영됨을 의미합니다. 따라서 지정학적 불안정성이 실물 자산의 가격과 생산 비용에 미치는 연쇄 효과를 이해하는 것이 중요합니다.

본문 2: 구조적 손실과 정책적 불확실성

비용 상승은 농가들에게 재정적 손실로 직결되고 있습니다. 미국 농가 연맹(AFBF)의 연구에 따르면, 정부 지원이 없을 경우 농가들은 올해 310억 달러, 2027년에는 320억 달러에 달하는 손실을 입을 것으로 예측됩니다. 특히 옥수수와 대두와 같은 주요 작물에서 이러한 손실은 더욱 심각합니다. 옥수수 생산자는 올해 1에이커당 131달러, 2027년에는 167달러의 손실이 예상되며, 대두 생산자 역시 올해 1에이커당 80달러, 내년에 138달러의 손실이 예상됩니다. 이러한 손실은 단기적인 시장 변동성을 넘어, 장기적으로는 대부분의 주요 밭작물이 2027년에 6년 연속 마이너스 수익을 기록할 수 있음을 시사합니다. 이는 농업 부문이 현재의 비용 구조와 시장 환경에서 지속 가능한 수익을 창출하기 어렵다는 구조적 문제를 제기합니다.

본문 3: 장기적 전망과 구조적 취약성

이러한 비용 압박과 재정적 손실은 단기적인 경기 침체 우려를 넘어 장기적인 농업 시스템의 취약성을 드러냅니다. 농업 부문은 현재의 인플레이션 환경과 지정학적 리스크에 노출되어 있으며, 이는 미래의 식량 안보와 공급망 안정성에 심각한 위협이 될 수 있습니다. 농가들은 단순히 비용을 관리하는 것을 넘어, 에너지 및 자원 가격의 변동성에 대비하고, 정부의 정책적 지원이 장기적인 수익 안정성을 확보하는 데 필수적임을 인식해야 합니다. 향후 농업 부문의 안정성을 위해서는 공급망 다변화와 비용 효율성을 높이는 구조적 개혁이 요구됩니다.

결론

미국 곡물 농가들이 겪고 있는 위기는 지정학적 갈등과 인플레이션이 농업 생산 비용에 미치는 직접적인 영향을 명확히 보여줍니다. 이러한 비용 압박은 단기적인 재정적 손실을 넘어, 농업 부문의 장기적인 지속 가능성에 대한 근본적인 질문을 던집니다. 투자자들은 지정학적 위험과 에너지 비용의 변동성이 농업 부문의 수익성에 미치는 장기적인 영향을 고려하여, 공급망 안정성과 비용 효율성을 확보할 수 있는 구조적 변화에 주목해야 할 것입니다.

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원문 링크: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxOT2JQdjFSOVluWVFDdDZLSzd2dV9WVjFHTHA2cV9lX3Fhc3ItdVVFTzJEaDdaVEZCS2ltSEZUYTkwV1RRRDNPbzBBOHB1ZHpNS1Y4SlNuZlZ2cmd2TnFJbFFkUkszelNRdDRkbzAtU2pTVVFINnBteG1XemFYVjNLRlJ6elo?oc=5

US grain farmers face worst crisis in decades as Iran war sends costs spiralling - Financial Times

Farmers in America’s Corn Belt say they are facing their worst crisis in 40 years, as an explosion in diesel and fertiliser costs triggered by Donald Trump’s Iran war pushes grain producers to the brink. The growing strains are the latest sign of how the conflict in the Middle East, now in its sixth month, is reverberating through the US’s heartland ahead of crucial midterm elections that will determine control of Congress. “Inputs are way out of whack,” said Matt Bailey, who grows corn and soyabeans in eastern Nebraska. He said 11-52-0, a phosphorus-rich fertiliser used at planting time that was priced at $470 a ton 10 years ago, now costs more than $900. “Where do you start with that? How do you budget for that?” The huge uptick in prices for fuel and crop nutrients since the US launched its attack on Iran in February came with American farmers already struggling after years of low grain prices and falling incomes. Many also see themselves as casualties of Trump’s trade wars, which they say have hurt US agricultural exports, particularly soyabean sales to China. “This is the worst financial downturn in the sector since the 1980s,” said John Hansen, president of Nebraska Farmers Union. A recent study by the American Farm Bureau Federation, an industry group, found that, without government assistance, farmers growing nine principal crops — including corn — will lose $31bn this year and $32bn in 2027. Faith Parum, an economist with the AFBF, said losses for corn producers would stand at $131 per acre this year, rising to $167 in 2027. For soyabeans, the figure is $80 per acre in losses this year and $138 next year. She said 2027 would mark the sixth year of negative returns for most major row crops in the US. The struggles for Midwestern farmers show how concerns over affordability, the inflationary impact of the Iran war and the adverse effects of Trump’s tariffs are reaching greater swaths of the US population — from working-class families in big cities to rural communities in the heartlands. A recent FT poll found that more than 53 per cent of registered voters said their finances had deteriorated since Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, a result that could spell trouble for Republican hopes of retaining control of Congress. “We’ve got 71 days [until the midterm elections] and right now we don’t have a positive message to sell farm country, and we haven’t since ‘liberation day’ last year,” the Republican senator Thom Tillis said on Monday. Trump has vowed to support farmers, saying in June that “we’re never going to let you down”. In the same month his administration requested an $11bn funding package for farmers that would provide emergency assistance to row crop and speciality crop producers. But farming groups say it is not enough. Some of his attempts to tackle rising food prices have triggered a backlash from the agricultural sector. Last week he enraged cattle farmers by announcing a 90-day waiver of tariffs on up to 300,000 tonnes of beef imports, a move some ranchers called a “betrayal”. But many farmers say it is Trump’s war in Iran that has had the most sweeping effect on their businesses. The sharp slowdown in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has pushed up the price of diesel and disrupted the global supply of fertiliser, which had already surged in 2022 following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. “The [Iran] war has made so much uncertainty for us as farmers,” said Pam Johnson, who farms in northern Iowa and is a former president of the National Corn Growers Association. “It’s projected that farmers aren’t going to make any money for the next two years.” The average cost for diesel — widely used to power agricultural equipment — has shot up to $5.45 a gallon nationwide, compared with $3.81 before the war, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Interest payments, labour costs and the price of farm machinery had also increased, said Brad Lubben, a professor of agricultural economics at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. “If you look at all the components of the production budget, most of them have gone up substantially over the past few years,” he said. Drought and hot, dry conditions across the US corn belt have compounded some farmers’ woes. John Dittrich, who grows corn and soyabeans near Meadow Grove, Nebraska, said extreme weather was a growing problem. “Our droughts are worse, our heavy rainfall events are worse, our winds are worse,” he said. He said the risk to his business from weather events and rising costs was now “higher than it’s ever been in my 44-year career”. “Our costs of production are very high and then the instability and the unknowns of every variable that affects both our production and the prices we receive for our commodities are just unprecedented.” The weather is helping to push up corn prices, as traders pare back expectations for the 2026 harvest. US corn for delivery in December has already jumped 10 per cent this month to $5.15 a bushel, the highest level since 2023. With the price of other commodities such as soyabeans and wheat also rallying in recent days, experts fear that this could push up inflation, already running above the US Federal Reserve’s 2 per cent target. “This will definitely mean higher food prices,” said Brian Choi, chief executive of the Food Institute, a research organisation. With corn prices rising almost 20 per cent this year, “it will eventually make its way to the consumer”. Nebraska is among the states hit hardest by the drought. From January to July, it received 11.86 inches of precipitation — about 3.1 inches below normal. That made it the 18th-driest January-July period since records began in 1895. “I’ve got some good friends on the Sandhills [a vast area of north-central and western Nebraska] that haven’t hardly gotten any rain since last fall,” said Del Ficke, a cattle farmer in Pleasant Dale, Nebraska. Recent rainfall provided some relief but came too late for many farmers. “A lot of damage [to the crop] has already been done,” said Hansen of the Nebraska Farmers Union. “It’s like closing the stable door after the horse has bolted.” Bailey said the poor weather would probably affect his yields this year. “Because of all the early-season stress that happened, I don’t see it being a bin-buster, by any means,” he said. “Especially if you factor in all the dry land . . . that just didn’t get the water and got beat to crap for six weeks.”

Source: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihAFBVV95cUxOT2JQdjFSOVluWVFDdDZLSzd2dV9WVjFHTHA2cV9lX3Fhc3ItdVVFTzJEaDdaVEZCS2ltSEZUYTkwV1RRRDNPbzBBOHB1ZHpNS1Y4SlNuZlZ2cmd2TnFJbFFkUkszelNRdDRkbzAtU2pTVVFINnBteG1XemFYVjNLRlJ6elo?oc=5