핵심요약

• '저항의 축'은 미국이 예상했던 것보다 더 강력한 결속력을 유지하고 있습니다.
• 이란은 호르무즈 해협을 봉쇄함으로써 협상력을 강화했습니다.
• 후티 반군이 바브 알 만답 해협을 위협하며 추가적인 에너지 시장 불안정을 야기하고 있습니다.
• 이란 측 인사들은 저항의 축이 역사상 가장 강력한 상태에 있다고 평가했습니다.

도입

본 기사는 미국이 개입한 이란 전쟁이 예상대로 '저항의 축'을 와해시킬 것이라는 초기 예측과 달리, 오히려 이란과 연합된 세력의 결속력이 강화되었음을 분석합니다. 이는 단순한 군사적 충돌을 넘어, 중동 지역의 지정학적 역학 관계와 에너지 시장의 변동성에 미치는 심대한 영향을 시사합니다. 투자자들은 이러한 지정학적 변화가 장기적인 에너지 가격과 지역 안보에 미칠 파급 효과를 면밀히 살펴볼 필요가 있습니다.

본문 1: 지정학적 역학 관계의 변화

미국이 이란 전쟁을 통해 '저항의 축'을 약화시키려 했으나, 실제 상황은 이란이 오히려 이 축의 영향력을 강화하는 결과를 낳았습니다. 이란은 군사적 압박 속에서도 협상력을 유지하며 호르무즈 해협을 봉쇄하는 전략적 조치를 취했습니다. 이는 단순한 군사적 행동이 아니라, 국제 사회와 에너지 공급망에 대한 이란의 통제력을 확보하려는 외교적 압박 수단으로 해석됩니다. 이처럼 이란이 군사적 대결을 통해 협상 우위를 확보했다는 점은, 서방의 군사적 개입이 지역 내 기존의 비공식적 연합체에 대한 예측을 벗어났음을 보여줍니다. 이로 인해 '저항의 축'은 군사적 위협에도 불구하고 그 결속력을 유지하며, 기존의 지정학적 지위를 더욱 공고히 하는 결과를 가져왔습니다.

본문 2: 에너지 시장과 병목 지점의 위험

저항의 축의 결속력 강화는 특정 해상 병목 지점의 불안정성을 증폭시키고 있습니다. 특히 후티 반군이 사우디아라비아와의 갈등을 재점화시키고 바브 알 만답 해협을 위협하는 행위는 에너지 운송로에 직접적인 위협이 됩니다. 호르무즈 해협 봉쇄와 바브 알 만답 해협 위협은 유가와 같은 에너지 상품의 가격 변동성을 극대화하는 요인으로 작용합니다. 이러한 병목 지점들이 불안정해질 경우, 글로벌 에너지 시장은 예측 불가능한 변동성에 직면하게 되며, 이는 각국 경제에 직접적인 비용 부담으로 전가될 수 있습니다. 따라서 이 지역의 해상 안보 문제는 단기적인 군사적 이슈를 넘어 거시적인 경제 위험으로 인식되어야 합니다.

본문 3: 장기적 전망과 리스크

이란 측 인사들이 저항의 축이 '역사상 가장 강력한 상태'에 있다고 평가한 것은, 단기적인 군사적 상황을 넘어 장기적인 전략적 생존 능력을 의미합니다. 이는 이란이 외부의 압력에 대해 내재적인 저항 체계를 통해 대응할 수 있는 능력을 갖추고 있음을 시사합니다. 향후 상황은 이란의 내부 정치적 안정성과 외부 세력(미국, 이스라엘, 사우디아라비아) 간의 복잡한 역학 관계에 의해 결정될 것입니다. 만약 이 지역의 긴장감이 지속되거나 새로운 군사적 충돌이 발생할 경우, 에너지 공급망의 취약성이 더욱 노출되어 글로벌 인플레이션 압력과 지정학적 리스크가 동시에 심화될 가능성이 높습니다. 따라서 투자자들은 이러한 지정학적 리스크가 에너지 가격에 미치는 영향을 지속적으로 모니터링하며, 지역 내 세력 균형의 미세한 변화를 주시해야 할 것입니다.

결론

결론적으로, 미국 중심의 전략이 예상과 달리 이란 주도의 저항의 축이 예상보다 강한 회복력을 보였다는 점이 핵심입니다. 이 축은 단순한 군사적 대결을 넘어, 해상 통제권을 통해 에너지 시장에 직접적인 영향을 미치는 전략적 자산으로 기능하고 있습니다. 향후 지역 안보 상황은 이란의 내부 결속력과 주요 해상 통로의 안정성에 달려있으므로, 지정학적 변동성에 따른 에너지 가격의 잠재적 리스크를 지속적으로 평가해야 할 것입니다.

---

원문 링크: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxOWVN5bzJyTlFVRk1vQW9XN1FfanRuNV9XUlZfOFhoMm9pdkhiX2tzSWV1SXhmWEpNN3lETW5UeWVBMzdrWTJmRktjTktDaFU2YTFkM2JHSlU0Z1UtU056TGxBUTM5MjFEQk8yb1o3cW9pclZkSERsSGlBMk9IQW5MTVFzRU5YbjlfcXpZS0J3aXpHSDR6VTBGQmw3QmhWTThnU1FNZzlNXzZFZDFsTUdPWUNvdw?oc=5

War was supposed to crush Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance.’ Instead, it’s bloodied but unbroken - latimes.com

When the U.S. launched the Iran war nearly six months ago, it was to be the coup de grace in dismantling the “Axis of Resistance,” an Iran-led alliance of armed groups and governments arrayed against the United States and Israel. The axis included not just the militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah, but Yemen's Houthi rebels, militias in Syria and Iraq and the government of Syria's then-dictator Bashar Assad. The thinking was that with the axis’ “tentacles” weakened, if not vanquished, all that would remain, as Israeli and U.S. officials often said, would be the “head of the octopus” — Iran. But it now appears reports of the axis’ unraveling are exaggerated. The Islamic Republic, far from capitulating under the U.S. and Israel’s withering assault, has compounded its leverage by closing the Strait of Hormuz. Hamas and Hezbollah remain stubbornly in place, with the latter maintaining its lethality, even as Iraqi militias — defying Baghdad’s attempts at defanging them — have launched attacks on America’s Persian Gulf allies. And though Assad has been ousted from Syria, the Houthis in Yemen now threaten to restart their long-running feud with Saudi Arabia and seal another crucial choke point — the Bab al Mandab strait linking the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Such a move would further roil already skittish energy markets. “Never has the Resistance Axis been as strong as it is today,” wrote Ali Khezrian, a hard-liner who is a member of the Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, in a post on X on Saturday. Though Syria was a big loss “that must be compensated,” he said, the rest of the axis’ members were “in the strongest condition they have ever been in the history of their resistance.” Analysts say statements such as Khezrian’s overstate the case, but they nevertheless acknowledge the axis has proved more resilient than expected. Although there is little doubt the axis is diminished compared with what it was a few years ago, "there’s now a period of a slow dawning realization that the way it’s built has made it able to match the moment,” said Peter Salisbury, a professor at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs who recently published a report on the axis’ evolution for the Century Foundation think tank. In June, the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding that called for a 60-day end of hostilities to allow time to negotiate an end to the conflict. The memorandum expired Monday and efforts to end the war appear to be at a standstill. But when the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, it appeared to be an opportune moment to strike. For decades, Tehran had poured billions of dollars funding, training and arming militias across the Middle East that shared its enmity toward the U.S. and Israel, establishing what analysts called a “ring of fire” around Israel, along with a forward line of defense that would help defend Iran in case of American or Israeli attack. But after the Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7, 2023, Israel went on the offensive. Even as it annihilated Hamas in Gaza, it pummeled Hezbollah in Lebanon, decimating the group’s much-vaunted arsenal and killing the upper echelons of its leadership. When the Houthis began hitting Israel and Red Sea shipping, the U.S. deployed its navy to fight back, leading the rebel group to accept a truce, and Israeli strikes forced the group’s senior leaders underground. In Iraq, militias did little more than the occasional halfhearted attack on U.S. bases in the country. Assad’s Syria, meanwhile, collapsed in 2024 under the weight of a rebel offensive, denying Tehran an essential land corridor to Hezbollah and the only state partner in the axis aside from Iran. “Our actions are taking apart the axis brick by brick,” said a triumphant-sounding Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu near the end of 2024. By June 2025, Netanyahu and President Trump had launched the 12-day war against Iran, and with only a feeble response from the axis’ other members, the decades of blood and treasure Iran invested in the axis seemed a waste. Then in February, Netanyahu attacked once more, Trump in tow. All of which is why the axis’ resurgence has come as a surprise. Since the start of Epic Fury, as the war on Iran was called, the various axis members have swung into action: Iraqi militias have lobbed drones and rockets on U.S. bases in the country and have been blamed for attacks on Saudi Arabia, a claim they deny. The Houthis, though they mostly stayed out of the fight in the beginning, started their own blockade on Saudi shipping in July. But the most unexpected turn has come from Hezbollah. Thought to be an all but spent force only a few months ago, it has put up a vigorous defense against Israel’s ground invasion in Lebanon, incorporated new tactics and weapons — including drones — in its combat doctrine. It also appears to have largely sidestepped the Israeli intelligence infiltration that killed its senior leadership in recent years. That regeneration power, said Ramzy Mardini, the founder of Geopol Labs, a Middle East-based geopolitical risk advisory firm, is the central and most important characteristic of the axis. Although many dismiss the members as mere proxies of Iran, they are instead "deeply rooted groups embedded within social bases, political movements and state institutions." "What looks like a resurgence is better understood as resilience. These organizations have the capacity to absorb enormous losses, adapt, and revive their capabilities and membership, even when it appears they have been permanently degraded or destroyed," Mardini said. "We tend to assume their resilience and capabilities are externally procured when, in fact, much of that power is locally produced," he said. Salisbury agreed, adding that axis members are also able to call on the pool of knowledge shared among them; experience fielding weapons in one theater can inform fighting in another. The collective result has been a multifront conundrum that the U.S. and Israel cannot easily solve without incurring costs their allies are unwilling to bear. “Iran has a hybrid strategy in the current war,” wrote Mahdi Mohammadi, a senior advisor to Iran’s chief negotiator, in a post on X. “We are not fighting on one front and we are not using one tool. The fronts and tools are integrated into one operational platform,” he wrote. Recent successes have also flipped the narrative on Tehran’s investment in the axis and its effectiveness. “I genuinely see Iran’s relationship with the axis as one of interdependence. It derives some of its strength, information and access to global markets through these different groups,” Salisbury said. “After a variety of shocks in the last three years, you can argue that the investment has proven more worthwhile than people thought.”

Source: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiswFBVV95cUxOWVN5bzJyTlFVRk1vQW9XN1FfanRuNV9XUlZfOFhoMm9pdkhiX2tzSWV1SXhmWEpNN3lETW5UeWVBMzdrWTJmRktjTktDaFU2YTFkM2JHSlU0Z1UtU056TGxBUTM5MjFEQk8yb1o3cW9pclZkSERsSGlBMk9IQW5MTVFzRU5YbjlfcXpZS0J3aXpHSDR6VTBGQmw3QmhWTThnU1FNZzlNXzZFZDFsTUdPWUNvdw?oc=5