핵심요약

• 미국 국무장관 루비오 씨는 호르무즈 해협의 통행료 부과를 금지할 것임을 강조하며 60일간의 휴전협정에 대한 미국 정부의 확고한 입장을 재확인했습니다.
• 이란의 동결 자산이 군사적 목적에 재투자될 가능성에 대한 우려가 제기되었습니다.
• 이란은 국제 원자력 감시단의 국내 접근에 대한 합의가 이루어지지 않았음을 부인했습니다.

도입

이번 기사는 미국과 이란 간의 휴전협정이 글로벌 에너지 시장에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 데 중요한 의미를 가집니다. 특히, 호르무즈 해협의 안정성이 글로벌 석유 수송에 미치는 영향을 고려할 때, 이 지역에서의 정치적 긴장 완화는 에너지 가격 변동성에 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.

본문 1: 호르무즈 해협의 전략적 중요성

호르무즈 해협은 세계 석유 수출의 약 30%가 통과하는 전략적 요충지로, 그 안정성은 글로벌 에너지 시장에 큰 영향을 미칩니다. 루비오 장관의 발언은 이 해협의 자유로운 통행을 보장함으로써 에너지 시장의 안정성을 유지하려는 미국의 의지를 보여줍니다. 만약 이란이 통행료를 부과한다면, 이는 글로벌 석유 수송 비용을 증가시키고, 결국 소비자에게까지 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 따라서, 이번 휴전협정이 성공적으로 이행된다면, 에너지 시장의 불안정을 줄이고, 글로벌 경제에 긍정적인 영향을 미칠 것입니다.

본문 2: 이란의 동결 자산 재투자 가능성

이번 휴전협정의 핵심적인 이슈 중 하나는 이란의 동결 자산이 군사적 목적에 재투자될 가능성입니다. 이란의 동결 자산이 해제된다면, 이 자산이 군사적 목적에 사용될 가능성은 글로벌 안보에 큰 위협이 될 수 있습니다. 특히, 이란의 군사적 확장에 대한 우려가 높아질 경우, 주변 국가들의 군사적 대응이 강화될 수 있으며, 이는 지역적인 긴장감을 고조시킬 수 있습니다. 따라서, 이란의 자산 사용에 대한 명확한 감시 메커니즘이 마련되어야 할 것입니다.

본문 3: 국제 원자력 감시단의 역할

이란은 국제 원자력 감시단의 국내 접근에 대한 합의가 이루어지지 않았음을 부인했습니다. 이는 국제 사회가 이란의 핵 프로그램에 대한 감시를 강화하기 위해 추가적인 노력이 필요함을 시사합니다. 국제 원자력 감시단의 역할은 이란의 핵 프로그램의 투명성을 확보하는 데 중요합니다. 만약 이란이 국제 사회의 감시를 거부한다면, 이는 핵 확산 방 earth에 대한 국제 사회의 노력에 장애물이 될 수 있습니다. 따라서, 이란과의 협상을 통해 국제 원자력 감시단의 접근을 보장하는 것이 중요합니다.

결론

이번 기사는 미국과 이란 간의 휴전협정이 글로벌 에너지 시장에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 데 중요한 의미를 가집니다. 특히, 호르무즈 해협의 안정성과 이란의 동결 자산 재투자 가능성, 국제 원자력 감시단의 역할이 주요 이슈로 부각되었습니다. 향후, 이 휴전협정이 성공적으로 이행된다면, 에너지 시장의 불안정을 줄이고, 글로벌 경제에 긍정적인 영향을 미칠 것입니다. 그러나, 이란의 동결 자산 재투자와 국제 원자력 감시단의 역할에 대한 명확한 감시 메커니즘이 마련되어야 할 것입니다.

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원문 링크: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxPZjJJeFBRRkI0SzNHTEQyOFFxdFM1anVBaE43UXZYcDNoLUx5clU5OWhoOEdSNE9lN1N3VmRlWW9sZDNjQmZiZlhwOEpINldHOThsYjVub0w2bUtJcU02TEtUYTRaY01uSXYzNy1qckZMcEphbHMzbkxVVnlGVXU4c1g5aFJ3NnhnWVFidGstVDNCdTVOc1Ew?oc=5

Rubio insists strait of Hormuz will be toll-free as he arrives for Gulf meeting - The Guardian

US secretary of state seeks to reassure UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain over security and US-Iran ceasefire deal

The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio , has said no country, including Iran, would be allowed to charge tolls for shipping in the strait of Hormuz as he sought to reassure US allies in the Gulf that Washington would take a firm line in peace negotiations with Tehran.

Rubio is to meet Gulf allies on Tuesday and Wednesday in an attempt to reassure them that the US remains committed to their security and the 60-day ceasefire deal struck with Iran last week will not embolden Tehran.

Arriving in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday, Rubio said the US would provide for freedom of navigation through the strait of Hormuz and that no country would be allowed to charge a toll there, which Iran has said it has a right to do.

“It’s an international waterway,” Rubio said. “No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway. That’s existing international law. That’s the way it is in international waterways all over the world, and that’s the way we expect it’ll be here.”

That was just one of a number of potential fault lines in the shaky new US ceasefire deal, as concerns have grown that the release of Iran’s frozen assets would be reinvested into its military. And while Donald Trump claimed on Monday that Iran had agreed to allow international inspectors back into the country to monitor its nuclear programme, Iran directly denied that an agreement had been struck.

Rubio also nodded to the potential spoiler role that Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon could play in the agreement, saying that Iranian proxies must also respect the ceasefire but that the issue would be addressed “at the appropriate time in these negotiations”.

The US last week signed a ceasefire agreement with Iran that established a 60-day period of toll-free passage through the strait, after which Iran and Oman would discuss the “future administration and maritime services in the strait of Hormuz, in discussions with other Persian Gulf littoral states, in line with applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the strait of Hormuz”.

Observers took that to mean that Iran was not directly precluded from charging fees or services for transport through the strait of Hormuz. Rubio, however, indicated that he believed Iran would accept the terms of toll-free passage through the waterway.

“I don’t think we have anybody to convince around here in that regard,” he said on Monday. “I think all the countries in this region would agree with us.”

The Gulf is divided over the deal. While Qatar has played a central role in mediating the agreement, some countries – notably the United Arab Emirates , Kuwait and Bahrain – are fearful it hands Iran substantial sums that may be ploughed into its military.

The mood among Gulf states remains one of anger with Iran. The US allies want absolute clarity that tolls will not be charged in the strait of Hormuz, and also want any final agreement to also address limits on Iran’s ballistic missiles programme. Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, said on Tuesday that Iran’s ballistic missiles programme would “never” be part of a future agreement. “If we did not have our missiles, which are for our self-defence, Israel and America would have ploughed through Iran the way they did Gaza,” he said.

Donald Trump said in a post to his Truth Social platform on Tuesday that the unfrozen assets would be under US control and used to buy food and medical supplies from the US.

In his first trip to the region since the US and Israel started the war on 28 February, Rubio will visit the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain , the state department said. He is also likely to meet officials from the Gulf Cooperation Council regional body.

All three countries, which house large US military bases, have been hit by Iranian missiles, but the US has declined to detail the scale of the impacts. Severe penalties have been imposed on those using social media to reveal the damage.

Trump last week disclosed that the UAE played an active part in mounting counterattacks against Iran, and the Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, said Iran believed the UAE, Kuwait and Jordan all helped the US attack Iran.

“We will definitely not abandon this issue. We will both document and demand,” Baghaei said. “The US military presence in the region has shown what consequences and harm it has brought to the region and its countries. We hope that the countries of the region have learned from the experience of the past few months and years.”

The long-term Iranian aim is to persuade the Gulf states to eject the US from the region. In what is still a fluid debate inside Iran and the Gulf, some Iranian voices are calling for a rapprochement with the region, perhaps by forming an alliance with a powerful new grouping of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Egypt. The Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, flew to Pakistan on Tuesday in his first overseas visit since the war ended.

There have also been signs that the UAE – the Gulf state with the closest economic ties with Iran – is also looking to defuse the crisis in relations with Iran.

In the short term, Iran is expecting roughly $6bn (£4.54bn) of its assets locked in Qatar due to US sanctions to be unfrozen, with another $6bn to be given by Doha as a repayable loan.

Over the next two months Iran can also expect to receive at least $8bn of income since the US Treasury’s decision on Monday to issue a sanctions waiver on Iranian oil exports. The treasury’s waiver document details that the payments can be made in dollars.

Some internal Iranian estimates claim the income from unhindered oil sales – principally to China – could rise to more than $30bn over a year. Iran has long been evading US sanctions by covertly trading with China but at heavily discounted prices.

The shipping monitors Kepler said 36 ships passed through the strait of Hormuz on Monday, the highest traffic volume since 1 March. Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, has said he was working with Oman on a long-term agreement to manage the strait. Ghalibaf met the Sultan of Oman on Monday in Muscat.

Tehran and Washington had clashed on Monday over whether – as Trump and the US vice-president, JD Vance, have claimed – unfrozen Iranian assets could only be used to buy US agricultural produce such as soya beans. Iran’s central bank governor, Abdolnaser Hemmati, said the memorandum of understanding did not obligate Iran to spend unfrozen assets on US goods, and purchase decisions would be made on the basis of quality and price.

Iran also disputed claims that Rafael Grossi, the director general of the UN nuclear inspectorate, had been given an Iranian green light to prepare to return to Iran to inspect the damaged nuclear sites.

Source: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilwFBVV95cUxPZjJJeFBRRkI0SzNHTEQyOFFxdFM1anVBaE43UXZYcDNoLUx5clU5OWhoOEdSNE9lN1N3VmRlWW9sZDNjQmZiZlhwOEpINldHOThsYjVub0w2bUtJcU02TEtUYTRaY01uSXYzNy1qckZMcEphbHMzbkxVVnlGVXU4c1g5aFJ3NnhnWVFidGstVDNCdTVOc1Ew?oc=5