SpaceX 상장 후 급락…Microsoft에 투자하는 게 더 나은 선택일 수 있다
If I Had $5,000 to Invest Today, Here's the Trillion-Dollar Stock I'd Buy Instead of SpaceX
스페이스X의 높은 가격 대비 매출 비율과 마이크로소프트의 AI 전략이 비교되지만, 명확한 방향성을 보여주는 카탈리스트가 없어 중립적입니다.
핵심 요약
Microsoft는 16억 대의 Windows 기기와 4억 개의 365 라이선스를 보유하고 있어 AI 분야에서 강점을 보입니다.
핵심요약
- SpaceX는 상장 후 $2.8조 시가총액, $193억 매출, 145배 영업이익률로 과대평가된 것으로 분석됨
- 6월 12일 상장 당시 주가 $218, 6월 18일 $185로 15% 하락
- Microsoft는 16억 대 Windows 기기와 4억 개의 365 라이선스로 AI 시장 선두주자 위치
- Copilot AI 보조 프로그램은 무료와 유료 모델로 분화되어 수익화 가능성 높음
도입
SpaceX의 상장은 기술주 투자자들에게 큰 기대를 불러일으켰지만, 과도한 평가로 인해 단기적인 주가 변동성이 발생하고 있습니다. 반면 Microsoft는 AI 기술과 기존 소프트웨어 인프라를 결합해 장기적인 성장을 기대할 수 있는 투자처로 부상하고 있습니다.
본문 1: SpaceX의 과대평가 문제
SpaceX는 상장 당시 145배의 영업이익률로 Nasdaq-100 지수의 7배에 해당하는 높은 평가에 거래되었습니다. 이는 기술주에 대한 투자자들의 과도한 기대감으로 인해 발생한 현상으로 보입니다. 특히, SpaceX의 매출 규모를 고려할 때 이 같은 평가수준은 지속 가능하지 않을 가능성이 높습니다. 실제로 상장 후 주가가 15% 하락한 것은 이러한 과대평가의 시정을 반영한 것으로 해석됩니다.
본문 2: Microsoft의 AI 전략의 강점
Microsoft는 Windows, Edge, Bing, 365 등 다양한 소프트웨어 제품에 AI 보조 프로그램 Copilot을 통합해 사용자 경험을 향상시키고 있습니다. 특히, 4억 개의 365 라이선스를 보유한 기업 고객층을 타겟으로 한 유료 모델은 높은 수익화 가능성을 가지고 있습니다. Windows의 16억 대의 Monthly Active Devices는 Copilot의 무료 배포를 통해 대규모 사용자 기반을 확보할 수 있는 장점을 제공합니다.
본문 3: AI 시장 경쟁 구도
AI 시장에서는 OpenAI, 앤트로픽 등 순수 AI 소프트웨어 기업들이 경쟁하고 있지만, Microsoft는 기존의 소프트웨어 인프라를 활용한 AI 통합 전략으로 차별화되고 있습니다. 이는 사용자 획득 비용을 절감하고, AI 기술의 상용화를 가속화할 수 있는 중요한 요인입니다. 또한, Microsoft의 글로벌 네트워크와 기술력은 AI 시장에서의 지속적인 경쟁력 유지에 기여할 것으로 예상됩니다.
결론
SpaceX의 과대평가 문제는 단기적인 주가 변동성을 유발할 수 있지만, Microsoft는 AI 기술과 기존 소프트웨어 인프라를 결합한 전략으로 장기적인 성장을 기대할 수 있습니다. AI 시장의 경쟁 구도와 Microsoft의 기술적 우위성을 고려할 때, Microsoft는 지속적인 주목할 만한 투자처로 평가됩니다.
Original Article
If I Had $5,000 to Invest Today, Here's the Trillion-Dollar Stock I'd Buy Instead of SpaceX
Elon Musk's space transportation and satellite internet connectivity company, Space Exploration Technologies ( SPCX +0.98% ) , went public on Friday, June 12. It was well received by investors, and its stock climbed to a peak of $218 per share within a few days.
But with a market capitalization of $2.8 trillion and just $19.3 billion in trailing-12-month revenue, it was trading at a sky-high price-to-sales ratio of 145, making it a whopping 20 times as expensive as the Nasdaq-100 technology index.
That valuation was simply unsustainable, and as of the market close on Thursday, June 18, SpaceX stock had already fallen to $185. But it's still very expensive, so if I had $5,000 to invest in one stock for my diversified portfolio, I would probably look elsewhere. In fact, here's why Microsoft ( MSFT +1.96% ) might be the better long-term buy.
Positioned to lead the artificial intelligence software race
Microsoft has a broad portfolio of software products, which includes the Windows operating system, the Edge internet browser, the Bing search engine, and the 365 productivity suite (Word, Excel, Outlook, and more). The company developed an artificial intelligence (AI) assistant called Copilot, which it has embedded into each of those software products.
Microsoft has a huge advantage over most pure-play AI software companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic , because it has the distribution side sorted. Windows alone powers over 1.6 billion monthly active devices worldwide, which gives Copilot an unprecedented amount of reach without the need for marketing or any other user acquisition costs.
Copilot is available for free through Windows, Edge, and Bing, but it's a paid add-on for the 365 application suite. This is a huge financial opportunity for Microsoft, especially on the enterprise side, because organizations around the world pay for over 400 million 365 licenses for their employees. As of the company's fiscal 2026 third quarter (ended March 31), enterprises had added Copilot to 20 million licenses, up by a whopping 250% year over year.
Microsoft's Azure cloud platform is growing rapidly
Microsoft Azure is a cloud computing platform that offers hundreds of solutions to help enterprises thrive in the digital age, from simple data storage to complex software development tools. However, it's also a top destination for enterprises that need access to the computing capacity, ready-made large language models, and other services required to develop AI software.
Microsoft operates AI data centers worldwide, equipped with thousands of the latest chips and components from leading suppliers, including Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices . Demand for computing capacity is off the charts -- Microsoft ended the third quarter with an eye-popping $627 billion order backlog from customers who were waiting for more data centers to come online, and that figure doubled from the year-ago period.
Azure's total revenue grew by 40% during the third quarter, which marked an acceleration from its second-quarter growth of 39%. Microsoft plans to double its global data center footprint over the next two years to help fulfill its enormous order backlog, so it's possible Azure's revenue growth will accelerate even further from here.
Microsoft stock trades at a very attractive valuation
Earlier this year, fears emerged on Wall Street that AI would disrupt the software-as-a-service ( SaaS ) industry, so investors started reducing their exposure to the space. Some analysts think AI could reduce the global workforce, thus affecting companies that sell software on a per-user basis. Other analysts believe AI will allow businesses to build their own versions of legacy software products such as Word or Excel, reducing the need for vendors like Microsoft entirely.
As a result, Microsoft stock is currently down 30% from its all-time high. However, the blistering growth in Copilot adoption, combined with the incredible strength in Azure, makes me believe this sell-off is probably overdone, especially when you consider Microsoft's current valuation.
Based on Microsoft's trailing-12-month earnings of $16.79 per share, its stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 22.5. That is a steep discount to its 10-year average of 32.7, so it looks undervalued right now.
Microsoft stock is also much cheaper than the Nasdaq-100 technology index, which has a P/E ratio of 34.4. That suggests it might be undervalued compared with a basket of its big-tech peers. Furthermore, its price-to-sales ratio of just 8.9 makes it substantially cheaper than SpaceX.
SaaS companies like Microsoft deliver more than just raw software products. They also provide the data centers, security, and technical support necessary to make their products commercially viable. It's only profitable to maintain all of this infrastructure at scale -- in other words, the costs involved with building replicas of legacy software products would be prohibitive for the average business.
As a result, I wouldn't bet on Microsoft's demise. In fact, I think its stock has far more upside potential from the current price than an incredibly expensive name like SpaceX.