중동 갈등, 역사상 최대 원유 공급 차질…브렌트 유가 60% 급등
The Middle East and Global Energy Markets – Topics - IEA – International Energy Agency
중동 분쟁으로 인한 공급 충격과 IEA의 비상 석유 방출 조치로 인해 방향성이 모호합니다. 시장 변동성에 주목하시기 바랍니다.
핵심 요약
중동 갈등으로 브렌트 유가가 갈등 전 대비 60% 이상 급등하며 역사상 최대 규모의 원유 공급 차질이 발생했습니다.
핵심요약
- 중동 갈등으로 역사상 최대 규모의 원유 공급 차질 발생
- 브렌트 유가 4월 말 기준 갈등 전 대비 60% 이상 급등
- 호르무즈 해협을 통해 이동하는 세계 LNG 공급량의 약 20%가 2025년에 기록
- IEA 회원국들이 3월 11일 역사상 최대 규모의 비상 원유 보급 결정
도입
중동 갈등으로 인한 에너지 시장 변화는 전 세계 경제에 미치는 영향이 큽니다. 특히 원유와 천연가스의 공급 차질은 에너지 보안과 가격 변동성에 직접적인 영향을 미치므로, 투자자들은 이 상황을 주의 깊게 모니터링해야 합니다. 이번 분석에서는 중동 갈등이 에너지 시장에 미치는 구체적인 영향을 심층적으로 분석합니다.
본문 1: 원유 시장 공급 차질의 영향
중동 갈등으로 인해 호르무즈 해협을 통한 원유 수송이 중단되며, 역사상 최대 규모의 원유 공급 차질이 발생했습니다. 이는 브렌트 유가 급등으로 이어졌으며, 4월 말 기준 갈등 전 수준 대비 60% 이상 급등한 바 있습니다. 이 같은 공급 차질은 에너지 보안에 대한 우려를 높이고, 전 세계 경제에 미치는 영향도 큽니다. 특히, 중동 지역이 전 세계 원유 공급의 중요한 역할을 하고 있으므로, 이 지역의 안정성이 에너지 시장 안정성에 직접적인 영향을 미칩니다.
본문 2: 천연가스 시장 변동성
중동 갈등은 천연가스 시장에 대한 변동성도 증가시켰습니다. 호르무즈 해협을 통해 이동하는 세계 LNG 공급량의 약 20%가 2025년에 기록된 바 있으며, 이는 중동 지역의 중요성을 다시 한번 입증합니다. 천연가스 시장의 변동성은 에너지 가격에 직접적인 영향을 미치므로, 투자자들은 이 점에 주의해야 합니다. 특히, LNG 수출입이 많은 국가들은 중동 지역의 안정성에 대한 우려가 커질 수 있습니다.
본문 3: IEA의 대응과 시사점
IEA 회원국들은 3월 11일 역사상 최대 규모의 비상 원유 보급을 결정하며, 시장 안정화를 위해 노력하고 있습니다. 이는 중동 갈등으로 인한 공급 차질을 완화하기 위한 조치로, 에너지 시장의 변동성을 줄이는 데 기여할 것으로 예상됩니다. 그러나, 중동 지역의 불안정성은 계속될 가능성이 높으므로, 투자자들은 이 점을 고려하여 포트폴리오를 조정해야 합니다. 특히, 에너지 관련 주식과 채권에 대한 투자 전략을 재검토하는 것이 필요합니다.
결론
중동 갈등으로 인한 에너지 시장 변화는 전 세계 경제에 미치는 영향이 큽니다. 특히, 원유와 천연가스의 공급 차질은 에너지 보안과 가격 변동성에 직접적인 영향을 미치므로, 투자자들은 이 상황을 주의 깊게 모니터링해야 합니다. 향후 중동 지역의 안정성과 에너지 시장 동향을 지속적으로 관측하는 것이 중요합니다.
Original Article
The Middle East and Global Energy Markets – Topics - IEA – International Energy Agency
The IEA is responding to the energy market impacts of the conflict in the Middle East and continues to closely monitor the latest developments.
The disruption to oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on energy infrastructure across the region have major implications for energy security and affordability – and for the world economy.
The IEA's Executive Director has said the combined impacts amount to "the greatest threat to global energy security in history." The war in the region that began on 28 February has impeded energy trade flows through the Strait, creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market . Global gas markets have also been affected, with about 20% of the world's supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) having moved through the Strait in 2025.
On 11 March, IEA Member countries unanimously agreed to carry out the Agency’s largest-ever release of emergency oil stocks to help address the market disruptions. Read the latest update on the stock release here .
Oil and natural gas prices have experienced significant volatility since the war began. In the wake of the largest oil supply disruption in history, Brent futures – the global benchmark for crude prices – rose steeply, peaking at more than 60% above pre-conflict levels in late April. Prices pulled back in late May and early June as strategic stock releases and demand weakness eased market tightness, and after the United States and Iran announced an interim agreement to end hostilities.
Physical crude markets continue to reflect acute supply tightness as refiners scramble to replace lost Middle Eastern cargoes with alternative supplies. Prices for certain oil products – notably diesel, jet fuel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), which have been particularly exposed to the disruption – remain elevated.
Shipments of oil through the Strait increased sharply in early June, supported by ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Yet our latest Oil Market Report , published on 17 June, notes that even if the new agreement holds, a full recovery in flows is unlikely to be immediate. Mines will need to be cleared from the main shipping lanes and supply chains will take time to normalise.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have successfully redirected some exports to terminals loading outside of the Strait of Hormuz. Producers outside the Middle East have also pushed output higher and lifted exports to record levels in response to the crisis. Even so, supply losses stemming from the Middle East disruptions have depleted global oil inventories at the fastest pace on record. Global observed oil stocks have declined by 3.8 million barrels per day on average since the start of the war, with a sizeable draw of 143 million barrels in May alone, according to preliminary data.
Our latest monthly Oil Market Report has more. It emphasises that fully resuming flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains the single most important variable in easing the pressure on energy supplies, prices and the global economy.
Our Maritime Chokepoints Shipping Monitor also shows how flows for oil, gas and other cargoes have evolved since the start of the war, based on ships' automatic identification system (AIS) data.
The Gulf region is a key source of exports of refined oil products to global markets, notably for middle distillates such as diesel and jet fuel. Gulf producers exported 3.3 million barrels per day of refined oil products and 1.5 million barrels per day of LPG in 2025. Nearly 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity in the region has been shut due to attacks and a lack of viable export outlets. Refiners outside the region are also curtailing refinery runs due to concerns over feedstock availability.
End users of oil and oil products are curbing consumption in response to higher prices, with four months of disruptions spreading across markets. For now, the steepest losses have occurred in the petrochemical sector, where feedstock availability has become increasingly constrained. Aviation activity is also running well below normal levels, helping to ease some of the pressure on jet fuel prices, which nearly tripled following the loss of Middle Eastern exports.
The war has also disrupted both regional and global market dynamics for natural gas, reversing a trend of market rebalancing that had been underway during the 2025/26 heating season. The disruption of transit via the Strait of Hormuz has reduced LNG supplies from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates by over 300 million cubic metres per day since 1 March – which translates into a loss of over 2 billion cubic metres of gas supply every week. As of mid-June, Dutch TTF, the European benchmark for natural gas prices, stood 35% above pre-war levels.
The Ras Laffan facility in Qatar, which is the world's largest liquefaction facility, has been offline since an attack on 2 March. Regional gas production is also affected by the shutting in of oil fields, which has reduced the output of gas associated with oil production.
Natural gas prices in Asian markets have risen sharply since the start of the war as buyers compete for a smaller pool of LNG cargoes, reflecting the region's greater exposure to supply disruptions via the Strait. Higher prices and supply constraints have also prompted demand-side adjustments, including gas rationing in some countries.
The conflict has significantly altered the medium-term outlook for global natural gas markets. According to our latest quarterly Gas Market Report published in April, damage to LNG liquefaction infrastructure in Qatar is set to reduce projected supply growth, delaying the anticipated global LNG supply wave. Short-term supply losses and slower capacity growth could result in a cumulative loss of around 120 bcm of LNG supply between 2026 and 2030. While new liquefaction projects in other regions are expected to offset these losses over time, the impacts of these disruptions could be felt through 2026 and 2027.
Our 2026 Energy Crisis Policy Response Tracker catalogues government actions to curb demand and support consumers in response to the energy market impacts of the conflict, while our new interactive tool shows the reliance of different countries on oil and gas supplies from the Middle East.
Ensuring energy security has been at the centre of the IEA’s mission since its founding in 1974 following the major oil crisis the year before. A critical aspect of this work has been to help coordinate collective responses to major oil supply disruptions by providing additional oil to the global market on a short-term basis.
Each of the IEA’s 32 Member countries has an obligation to hold oil stocks equivalent to at least 90 days of net oil imports and to be ready to collectively respond to severe supply disruptions affecting the global oil market.
On 11 March, IEA Member countries unanimously agreed to take emergency collective action to respond to the major disruptions in oil markets, making 400 million barrels of emergency oil stocks available – the largest-ever release coordinated by the Agency.
The stock release largely consists of crude oil, while in Europe, the contributions are primarily taking the form of refined oil products. This is being complemented by additional production from countries in the Americas. The latest details are available here .
The coordinated stock release is the sixth in the history of the IEA. Previous collective actions were taken in 1991, 2005, 2011, and twice in 2022.
The IEA continues to assess the energy security implications of the situation in coordination with governments around the world. A new report, Sheltering from Oil Shocks , also outlines demand-side measures that governments, companies and households can take to help ease price pressures on consumers.
And the IEA, International Monetary Fund and World Bank have formed a coordination group to maximise their responses to the energy and economic impacts of the war. They held their first meeting on 13 April .
IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori puts the release of 400 million barrels of oil from members' emergency stocks in context and answers key questions about the decision and its implementation