니제리아, 원유 가격 급락으로 115억 달러 손실 우려…유류가격 인하 요청 고조
High petrol prices persist as Nigeria faces $11.5 billion crude oil loss - The Guardian Nigeria News
나이지리아가 원유 수익 115억 달러 손실과 고유가 지속으로 인해 경제적 부담이 커지고 있어, 단기적 시장 전망이 부정적으로 작용할 전망입니다.
핵심 요약
니제리아는 원유 가격 급락으로 115억 달러의 손실을 예상하고 있으며, 유류 가격은 여전히 높게 유지되고 있습니다.
핵심요약
- 니제리아는 원유 가격 급락으로 최대 115억 달러의 손실을 예상하고 있습니다.
- 단게 석유 정제소는 유류 가격인 프리미엄 모터 스피릿(PMS)의 엑스-간트리 가격을 리터당 50나이라 인하했습니다.
- 전 세계 원유 가격이 114달러에서 74달러로 떨어졌음에도 불구하고, 니제리아의 유류 가격은 여전히 1,300나이라로 높게 유지되고 있습니다.
- 관계자들은 유류 가격 구조의 개선과 투명성을 요구하고 있습니다.
도입
이 기사는 니제리아의 에너지 시장에 미치는 원유 가격 변동성의 영향을 분석하는 데 중요합니다. 니제리아는 아프리카 최대 원유 생산국으로, 원유 가격의 급격한 하락은 국가 경제에 큰 타격을 줄 수 있습니다. 또한, 유류 가격의 인하 요구가 높아짐에 따라, 에너지 시장의 구조적 문제를 해결하기 위한 개혁이 필요하다는 점이 강조되고 있습니다.
본문 1: 원유 가격 하락의 경제적 영향
니제리아는 원유 가격이 114달러에서 74달러로 급락하면서 최대 115억 달러의 손실을 예상하고 있습니다. 이는 니제리아의 경제에 큰 타격을 줄 수 있으며, 특히 에너지 부문에 종사하는 기업들과 노동자들에게 부정적인 영향을 미칠 것입니다. 원유 가격의 하락은 니제리아의 수출 수익을 감소시키고, 국가 예산에 큰 압력을 가할 수 있습니다. 이러한 경제적 영향은 니제리아의 경제 성장에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 가능성이 높습니다.
본문 2: 유류 가격 인하의 시장 반응
단게 석유 정제소는 유류 가격인 프리미엄 모터 스피릿(PMS)의 엑스-간트리 가격을 리터당 50나이라 인하했습니다. 이는 전 세계 원유 가격이 하락하면서 Middle East의 긴장이 완화됨에 따라 발생한 변화입니다. 그러나, 유류 가격은 여전히 높게 유지되고 있으며, 이는 인벤토리 비용, 정제 주기, 물류 비용, 시장 동역학 등 다양한 요인에 의해 영향을 받을 수 있습니다. 관계자들은 유류 가격의 인하를 요구하고 있으며, 이는 에너지 시장의 투명성과 개혁을 촉진할 수 있는 기회가 될 수 있습니다.
본문 3: 에너지 시장 개혁의 필요성
관계자들은 유류 가격 구조의 개선과 투명성을 요구하고 있습니다. 이는 에너지 시장의 효율성을 높이고, 소비자에게 더 나은 서비스를 제공하기 위한 필수적인 조치입니다. 또한, 에너지 시장의 개혁은 니제리아의 경제 성장을 촉진하고, 에너지 부문의 투자를 유치하는 데 도움이 될 수 있습니다. 이러한 개혁은 니제리아의 에너지 시장을 더 안정적으로 만들고, 장기적인 경제 성장을 촉진할 수 있는 가능성을 높일 것입니다.
결론
니제리아는 원유 가격의 급격한 하락으로 인해 큰 경제적 타격을 입을 가능성이 높습니다. 그러나, 유류 가격의 인하와 에너지 시장의 개혁을 통해 이러한 영향을 완화할 수 있는 가능성이 있습니다. 투자자들은 니제리아의 에너지 시장의 동향을 주의 깊게 관찰하고, 장기적인 투자 전략을 수립하는 것이 중요합니다.
Original Article
High petrol prices persist as Nigeria faces $11.5 billion crude oil loss - The Guardian Nigeria News
Despite a sharp decline in global crude oil prices following the easing of tensions in the Middle East , industry experts warn that Nigerians may not see a significant reduction in petrol prices immediately, even as the country faces a potential loss of more than $11.4 billion in oil earnings due to the crash in crude prices.
The calls for lower fuel prices have intensified in recent weeks as international crude benchmarks retreated from war-induced highs of about $114 to around $74 per barrel, following the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel and the reopening of shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Apparently heeding the calls for price reduction, Dangote Petroleum Refinery has slashed the ex-gantry price of premium motor spirit (PMS), also known as petrol, by N50 per litre.
In a notice to customers, the refinery said the ex-depot price had been adjusted downward from N1,175 per litre to N1,125 per litre, while the coastal supply price was reduced from N1,495,215 per metric tonne to N1,428,165 per metric tonne.
The refinery attributed the price reduction to the easing of tensions in the Middle East, which has led to a decline in global energy prices.
However, stakeholders said yesterday that while crude prices fall rapidly, petrol and diesel prices typically adjust more slowly due to inventory costs, refining cycles, logistics expenses, and market dynamics.
The stakeholders, however, worry about the structure of petroleum product pricing in the country and call for reform and transparency from refiners and the Nigerian Midstream Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA ).
Before the Middle East hostilities, prices of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) averaged N800 per litre across the country but remained around N1,300 yesterday, showing an increase of about N500 per litre even when oil prices stayed close to the pre-war level of $74 per barrel.
The development comes as Nigeria, Africa’s largest crude oil producer, faces a significant decline in oil revenue after benefiting from elevated prices during the brief Middle East conflict.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) show that Nigeria’s crude oil production averaged about 1.6 million barrels per day between January and May 2026. Production stood at 1.627 million barrels per day (mbpd) in January; 1.483mbpd in February; 1.546mbpd in March; 1.663mbpd in April and 1.7mbpd in May.
At average crude prices of about $114 per barrel during the conflict period, Nigeria’s oil sector was estimated to generate roughly $5.4 billion in monthly revenue. With prices now hovering around $74 per barrel, monthly earnings could decline to approximately $3.5 billion if production remains unchanged. This translates to a monthly revenue reduction of about $1.9 billion. Over the remaining part of the year, cumulative losses could exceed $11.4 billion compared with revenues generated during the period of elevated prices.
The decline reflects the correction in oil markets after fears of supply disruptions eased and maritime traffic resumed through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy transit corridors.
This is coming ahead of the 2027 election, when political office holders focus more on electioneering and when the country is upping borrowing to finance budget deficits.
According to data from S&P Global MINT and S&P Global Commodities at Sea, vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rebounded sharply on June 24, reaching a record 78 vessels in a single day. The figure surpassed the previous conflict-era high of 49 vessels and helped push total monthly vessel movements to 551, compared with 438 in April.
The recovery followed the establishment of a new safe shipping corridor along the Omani coast by Oman and the International Maritime Organisation (IMO). More than 40 per cent of vessels transiting the waterway on June 24 utilised the new route.
The increase in shipping activity has eased concerns over global oil supply disruptions that had pushed crude prices sharply higher during the conflict.
Additional relief has come from rising fuel oil exports across the Middle East.
Reuters reports that fuel oil exports from the region are expected to rise by about 20 per cent in June to roughly 508,000 barrels per day as tanker traffic improves and major producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Oman, increase shipments from ports outside the Persian Gulf.
Iraq’s fuel oil exports from Syria’s Baniyas Port reportedly reached a record high this month, while Oman is expected to post its highest fuel oil export volumes in more than two years. Although analysts caution that geopolitical uncertainties remain, the restoration of shipping activity and improving fuel exports have contributed to the sharp correction in crude prices.
Yet the expected decline in domestic fuel prices has not materialised at the same pace.
A petroleum economist and former President of the Nigerian Economic Society (NES), Prof. Adeola Adenikinju, said consumers were justified in demanding lower petrol prices given the sharp fall in crude oil prices.
“The call is in order,” Adenikinju said. “With the sharp decline in crude oil prices, petroleum product prices should begin a descent from the high prices they were before the signing of the agreement between the United States and Iran.”
However, he explained that fuel prices often exhibit what economists call “asymmetric price behaviour”, in which prices rise rapidly when costs increase but fall more slowly when costs decline.
The phenomenon, commonly referred to in energy economics as the “rocket-and-feather effect”, describes situations where fuel prices shoot up rapidly like a rocket when crude prices rise but drift downward slowly like a feather when crude prices fall.
Head of Energy and Power at Fidelity Bank, Emeka Nkemakolam, said market realities would ultimately determine how quickly petrol prices respond to lower crude prices.
Nkemakolam said: “The global oil prices are not determined by clamours from interest groups; they are determined by the demand and supply of the commodity. If inventories in retail outlets were purchased at higher prices, how would marketers reduce prices when they have not purchased new stock at the lower prices?”
Professor of Economics, WumiIledare, said calls for further reductions in petroleum product prices were justified given the recent decline in crude oil prices. However, he noted that fuel prices do not always move in tandem with crude prices due to “asymmetric price transmission.”
On the impact of lower oil prices on government earnings, Iledare said a decline in Nigeria’s monthly oil export revenue from about $5.4 billion to $3.5 billion would have significant macroeconomic implications. He said reduced foreign exchange inflows could put pressure on the naira, constrain government revenues, widen fiscal deficits and increase borrowing requirements if sustained over time.
He noted, however, that the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 made Nigeria’s fiscal framework more resilient through value-based royalty mechanisms.
Nevertheless, he emphasised the need for prudent management of oil windfalls and greater revenue diversification.