핵심요약

• 터키, 사우디아라비아, 파키스탄 간의 새로운 협정은 중동 지역 강대국들의 협력을 보여줍니다.
• 이 협정은 미국 지역 파트너십 내에서 이스라엘의 기회를 제한할 수 있다는 의문을 제기합니다.
• 우크라이나 전쟁, 10월 7일 전쟁, 이란 전쟁 등으로 인해 세계 질서가 약화되는 가운데 이러한 연합이 등장했습니다.
• 이 협정은 NATO의 제5조와 유사하게 국방 협력 및 군사 훈련을 심화하는 방향으로 진행될 전망입니다.

도입

본 기사는 터키, 사우디아라비아, 파키스탄 간의 새로운 협정이 중동 지역의 지정학적 역학 관계를 어떻게 변화시키는지 분석합니다. 투자자들은 이러한 지역 연합이 글로벌 혼란 속에서 에너지 시장, 안보 정책, 그리고 지정학적 위험에 미치는 영향을 면밀히 살펴볼 필요가 있습니다. 특히 이 협정이 이스라엘과 미국 간의 관계 및 이집트의 역할 배제 문제와 어떻게 연결되는지에 대한 분석이 중요합니다.

본문 1: 지역 안보 환경의 변화와 지정학적 리스크

새로운 협정은 중동 지역의 권력 균형이 재편되고 있음을 명확히 보여줍니다. 터키, 사우디아라비아, 파키스탄이라는 세 주요 국가가 연합함으로써 이 지역의 안보 환경은 기존의 단일한 구도에서 벗어나 다극화되고 있습니다. 이는 단순히 경제적 협력을 넘어 군사적 연합과 국방 산업 협력으로 확대되고 있으며, 이는 잠재적인 지역 갈등의 위험을 내포하고 있습니다. 특히 이스라엘과 시리아, 앙카라, 리야드, 워싱턴 간의 긴장 관계가 고조되는 상황에서, 이들 '중간 강국'의 연합은 이스라엘에 대한 잠재적인 반대 세력의 출현 가능성을 시사한다는 점이 핵심입니다. 이는 기존의 아브라함 협정(Abraham Accords)이 여전히 유효함에도 불구하고, 이스라엘이 지역 내에서 새로운 기회를 놓치고 있을 수 있다는 점을 의미합니다.

본문 2: 글로벌 혼란이 촉발한 연합의 배경과 동기

이러한 지역 연합의 배경에는 글로벌 혼란이 큰 영향을 미쳤습니다. 우크라이나 전쟁, 10월 7일 테러, 이란과의 충돌 등 전 세계적인 혼란은 기존의 미국 주도 세계 질서를 약화시켰습니다. 사우디아라비아와 같은 국가들은 과거 1990년에 사담 후세인의 이라크 위협에 맞서 미국에 방위 지원을 요청했던 경험을 바탕으로, 현재의 불안정한 환경 속에서 다른 국가들과 긴밀히 협력하여 미래를 대비하려는 동기를 갖게 되었습니다. 이러한 연합은 단순히 지역적 이해관계를 넘어, 세계 질서의 재편이라는 더 큰 목표를 추구하는 것으로 해석될 수 있습니다. 이는 군사적 협력과 국방 산업 협력을 심화하여, 지역의 안보를 강화하려는 현실적인 필요성에서 비롯된 것입니다.

본문 3: 향후 전망과 투자 시 고려 사항

이러한 군사적 동맹의 심화는 향후 중동 지역의 에너지 및 안보 정책에 중대한 변화를 가져올 수 있습니다. 국방 분야의 협력 심화는 관련 국가들의 국방 예산 증대로 이어질 가능성이 높으며, 이는 에너지 안보와 직결되어 유가 및 국제 무역 환경에 변동성을 줄 수 있습니다. 투자 관점에서 볼 때, 이러한 다자간 안보 협력은 특정 지역의 정치적 안정성에 따라 투자 환경이 달라질 수 있음을 의미합니다. 특히 이스라엘과 미국의 동맹 관계가 이러한 지역 동맹에 의해 어떻게 영향을 받을지에 대한 지속적인 모니터링이 필요합니다. 향후 지역 갈등의 확산 가능성과 군사적 긴장도에 따라 에너지 및 방위 산업 관련 섹터의 변동성이 커질 것으로 전망됩니다.

결론

새로운 중동 동맹은 지역 강대국들의 전략적 협력 강화라는 현실을 반영하며, 이는 기존의 국제 질서에 대한 도전으로 읽힙니다. 이러한 연합은 지정학적 불확실성이 커지는 상황에서 각국의 안보 우선순위를 재정립하는 과정으로 보입니다. 투자자들은 이러한 다자간 협력의 결과가 지역 안보와 글로벌 에너지 흐름에 미치는 장기적인 영향을 주의 깊게 관찰해야 할 것입니다. 향후 중동 지역의 지정학적 변화에 따른 시장 변동성에 대비하는 전략이 요구됩니다.

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원문 링크: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMickFVX3lxTFBkWTVqaXphM0JjSnRidm1xcU9EZndVSkNIVllyelVHTEN2YVVsOV9rd3ROcnNZLWV5OVkxaWRkRDY5TmMwZmZIYV9xb0xWS1phSGQ5ZERZWGRXVU1QbC1IVUdwSWxZdkxYTDZidHRWbWhGUQ?oc=5

New Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan pact reshapes Middle East alliances - The Jerusalem Post

A new deal this week between Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan illustrates how the Middle East's regional powers are working together.This has raised some eye brows about the ramifications of the deal, because these countries are all key US partners in the region. Turkey is a NATO ally. Where does this leave Israel? And why was Egypt excluded? Egypt is a friend of Saudi Arabia but it was not included in the deal?In Jerusalem there are some voices that argue that the emergence of powerful Sunni countries working together could hint at future opposition to Israel. Turkey is a vocal critic of Israel. Saudi Arabia was once believed to be a possible partner in the Abraham Accords. As such, the new deal illustrates that while the Abraham Accords remain relevant, Israel could be missing opportunities.Bellicose rhetoric in Jerusalem against Syria has caused concern in Ankara, Riyadh and also Washington. There are questions about whether Israel wants peace and to expand the Abraham Accords or whether more militant voices in Jerusalem will seek to talk up conflict with Damascus and Ankara.The new emergence of an alliance between what may be termed “middle powers” in the region illustrates how countries want to work closely together amid growing uncertainty over the future of the world order. The Ukraine war, October 7 war and also the Iran war have accelerated global chaos.Pact resembles NATO, especially with regards to Article 5The chaos erodes the US-led world order that emerged after the Cold War and also after the Gulf War. Saudi Arabia needed the US to help defend it in 1990 against the threat of Saddam Hussein's Iraq. Now, Riyadh wants to work closely with other countries as it wonders about the future.The new alliance will include joint exercises and deepen defence industry cooperation under a military pact, Reuters reports. Reuters added that “the three Sunni Muslim US allies, alarmed by a regional conflagration that has brought Iranian missile fire onto Gulf oil exporters, signed the 'Mecca Joint Defence Agreement' on August 7.They ⁠said the accord stipulates that an armed attack against any member would be regarded as an attack on all, similar to NATO's Article 5 collective defence clause.”The Middle East is witnessing the emergence of two different models for regional cooperation. One is represented by the Abraham Accords, which marked their sixth anniversary this year and sought to reshape the region through normalization, economic growth and technological cooperation between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain.Morocco is also a key member. Other Middle Eastern countries were expected to join. What about the new alliance, embodied in the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey, a security pact centered on military cooperation and collective defense.Although these initiatives are not necessarily incompatible, they reflect different strategic priorities that have emerged after years of regional conflict.Jared Kushner, who played a key role in the Abraham Accords, wrote on X/Twitter on August 13 that “for too long, the region was trapped by old ideas and failed frameworks that managed conflict rather than solved it, and too often created incentives that perpetuated division and instability.”He added that “the idea behind the Abraham Accords was simple: instead of reinforcing the things that divide people, build bonds that bring them together. Increase understanding. Expand trade and investment. Deepen security cooperation. Create tangible benefits that make people's lives better and give everyone a stake in peace.”Kushner says that “the Middle East is once again at an inflection point. There are breakthrough opportunities today that many will say are impossible. But we have seen what can happen when leaders reject conventional thinking, focus on common interests, and have the courage to pursue a better future.”Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan announced their new agreement in response to a new security environment following the escalation with Iran.The agreement calls for closer political and military coordination, expanded joint exercises, defense industrial cooperation and collaboration in areas such as unmanned systems, artificial intelligence and electronic warfare. US President Donald Trump will likely welcome this because he wants to see US allies shouldering the burden for defense.Saudi Arabia brings substantial financial resources to the new deal. It also holds a central position in the Arab and Islamic world. US President Trump made early important foreign visits to Saudi Arabia in his first and second term.Turkey is one of NATO's largest militaries and has an increasingly sophisticated local defense industry. Trump was in Turkey earlier this year for a NATO meeting. He also met Syria's president when he went to Turkey. Saudi has backed US support for Syria's new government.By contrast, some voices in Jerusalem have claimed that Israel will fight a future conflict with Syria. This has raised eyebrows in the Middle East.Cold War mirrored in new defense pactsThe Saudi-backed agreement reflects broader changes in regional strategic thinking. For decades, Gulf security rested on American military support. The US had bases in Saudi Arabia in the 1990s and built important bases in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and the UAE.This new agreement of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan does not necessarily represent a shift in regards to how these countries will work with the US. It illustrates their desire for greater regional coopertion at a time when conflicts involving Iran, the Red Sea and Iraq have demonstrated the limits of relying on outside powers.During the Cold War countries had to choose with the USSR or the US. The Islamic Revolution in Iran sought to carve out a third way between the two. When the Soviet Union fell apart most countries came to accept the US-led world order.However, over the last decade these countries have come to wrestle with what a new multi-polar world order may look like. They want to hedge and prepare for the future. The Abraham Accords represented one future. However, there is a sense that Jerusalem is increasingly hostile to Saudi Arabia, Syria and other countries.If Israel won't find a way to accommodate Riyadh's demands regarding a shift in policy regarding the Palestinians, Saudi Arabia is showing it will move on and find other partners.The Abraham Accords were designed to reduce old divisions by creating new relationships that crossed historical political and religious lines. Israel and several Arab states have increasingly worked together on technology, intelligence, defense and investment.The Abraham Accords represented an economic and diplomatic revolution. The new defense agreement that Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan have entered into reflects a sense that they need to work together as the world rapidly changes.There is also a broader strategic question. Could these two visions eventually converge? Saudi Arabia sits at the center of both discussions. It remains the country whose normalization with Israel would fundamentally transform the Abraham Accords. At the same time, it is now helping construct one of the region's new defense partnerships.Instead of seeing the two developments as contradictory, they could become complementary. A more advanced regional security strategy could strengthen deterrence against common threats, while normalization could expand economic opportunities and reduce the likelihood of future conflict.Whether that vision materializes will depend on developments in Gaza, the trajectory of Iran, and the willingness of regional leaders to continue building new partnerships.The anniversary of the Abraham Accords comes at a moment of transition. The region is increasingly shaped by a combination of factors. The challenge for policymakers will be to examine the ramifications of the new deals being achieved and to see if Israel and the Abraham Accords countries might find a way to partner with other states.

Source: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMickFVX3lxTFBkWTVqaXphM0JjSnRidm1xcU9EZndVSkNIVllyelVHTEN2YVVsOV9rd3ROcnNZLWV5OVkxaWRkRDY5TmMwZmZIYV9xb0xWS1phSGQ5ZERZWGRXVU1QbC1IVUdwSWxZdkxYTDZidHRWbWhGUQ?oc=5