핵심요약

• 이란에는 약 380만 명의 강제 이주자들이 거주하고 있으며, 이들은 불안정한 이민 신분과 노동 시장 접근 제한으로 경제적 어려움을 겪고 있습니다.
• 2026년 미-이란 전쟁은 이주민들이 의존하던 비공식 노동 시장을 붕괴시키고 물리적 안보를 저하시켜 귀환을 가속화하는 새로운 동인이 되었습니다.
• 난민들은 지난 10년간 불안정한 이민 신분, 거주 및 노동 제한, 공공 서비스 접근 제한 등의 법적, 경제적 어려움에 직면해 왔습니다.
• 전쟁 자체가 주된 이주 원인은 아니었으나, 이는 이미 긴장 상태에 있던 상황을 심화시켜 난민 문제의 복잡성을 높였습니다.

도입

본 기사는 지정학적 갈등이 인도주의적 위기 및 경제적 취약 계층에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 데 중요합니다. 특히, 미-이란 전쟁과 같은 대규모 분쟁이 이미 취약한 난민 집단의 삶에 어떤 직접적인 경제적, 물리적 영향을 미치는지 이해하는 것은 국제 개발 및 인도주의적 지원의 필요성을 판단하는 데 핵심적인 정보를 제공합니다.

본문 1: 난민의 경제적 취약성과 구조적 어려움

이란에 거주하는 380만 명의 아프가니스탄 난민들은 지난 10년간 법적 및 경제적 어려움을 겪어 왔습니다. 이들은 종종 불안정한 이민 신분을 가지고 있으며, 거주 및 노동의 장소에 대한 제한을 받았습니다. 또한, 공식적인 고용 기회와 공공 서비스에 대한 접근이 제한되어 생존을 위해 비공식 노동 시장에 의존해 왔습니다. 이러한 구조적 어려움은 난민들이 안정적인 경제적 기반을 구축하는 것을 심각하게 저해하는 요인입니다. 이처럼 제도적 장벽은 난민들이 외부 충격에 취약하게 만들며, 경제적 자립을 위한 노력을 더욱 어렵게 만듭니다.

본문 2: 지정학적 충돌이 야기한 환경 변화와 위험 증대

2026년 미-이란 전쟁은 난민 상황에 새로운 위험 요소를 추가했습니다. 이 전쟁은 단순히 지정학적 차원에 머무르지 않고, 이주민들이 의존하던 비공식 노동 시장을 붕괴시키고 물리적 안보를 저하시켰습니다. 이는 난민들이 이미 직면하고 있던 불안정성을 심화시키는 새로운 동인이 되었습니다. 즉, 전쟁의 직접적인 원인이라기보다는, 이미 존재하던 이란 내 분쟁 상황이 외부 충격에 의해 악화된 것입니다. 이러한 환경 변화는 난민들의 안전과 생계에 즉각적이고 심각한 위협으로 작용하며, 이는 인도주의적 지원의 복잡성을 더욱 높입니다.

본문 3: 장기적 전망과 정책적 시사점

향후 이 지역의 상황은 지정학적 안정성과 난민 지원 정책의 연계에 달려 있습니다. 전쟁의 여파는 단순한 일시적 위기를 넘어, 이란 내 사회 경제 시스템의 장기적인 취약성을 드러냅니다. 따라서 난민 문제 해결은 인도주의적 지원뿐만 아니라, 이란 내의 경제적 안정과 안보를 동시에 고려하는 통합적인 접근 방식을 요구합니다. 장기적으로는 난민들이 안정적인 경제 활동에 참여할 수 있도록 법적 지위와 노동 시장 접근성을 개선하는 정책적 노력이 필수적입니다. 이는 인도주의적 목표와 국가 안보 목표를 조화시키는 균형 잡힌 외교적 노력을 통해 달성될 수 있을 것입니다.

결론

결론적으로, 아프가니스탄 난민 문제는 지정학적 갈등이 인도주의적 위기와 경제적 취약성을 어떻게 증폭시키는지 보여주는 사례입니다. 난민들의 안정과 복지를 보장하기 위해서는 단기적인 인도주의적 지원을 넘어, 분쟁 지역의 경제적 안정과 난민들의 법적 지위 개선을 위한 장기적인 정책적 노력이 병행되어야 할 것입니다. 향후 이 지역의 안정화는 국제사회의 통합적인 접근에 달려있다고 전망됩니다.

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Return Without Protection: Afghan Refugees and the 2026 U.S.-Iran War - USCRI

By: USCRI Policy & Advocacy Intern (Summer 2026) Edited by William Evans, Policy Analyst In February 2026, when the U.S.-Iran War first broke out, military and geopolitical dimensions of the conflict immediately became the center of international attention. Public debate and discussion revolved around the issue of strategic considerations, stability, and possible escalation into wider military involvement, paying relatively little attention to the human toll of the war. As USCRI first reported in War in a Fragile Region and later reiterated in its April Situation Update , the heaviest price is being paid by vulnerable, often displaced, people. One of the groups particularly vulnerable to this war are Afghan refugees in Iran . Since 1979, Iran has been one of the main host countries for Afghan refugees fleeing several waves of conflict , from the Soviet invasion in 1979, to the U.S.-led war starting in 2001, and the Taliban’s return following the U.S. withdrawal in August 2021, after which more than one million Afghans fled to Iran. Before the start of the current conflict in February, it was reported that around 3.8 million forcibly displaced individuals, the majority of whom are Afghans, reside in Iran. Most were based in cities where they depended on informal labor markets for survival. In the last decade, they have faced growing legal and economic difficulties, including insecure or temporary immigration status, restrictions on where they can live and work, and limited access to formal employment and public services. The conflict between the United States and Iran in 2026 was not the primary factor behind the displacement of Afghan refugees. However, the war in Iran has further intensified an already tense situation of displaced persons in Iran. The conflict degraded physical security and collapsed informal labor markets Afghans depended on, adding a new driver of return to the enforcement pressures already in place. This concern is also reflected in UNHCR’s 2025 Global Trends report , which recorded Afghanistan as having 1.9 million refugee returns, the largest number worldwide that year. However, UNHCR noted that many of these returns took place under difficult circumstances, and that most returnees reported that they had no choice in the decision. Increased returns of Afghan refugees from Iran only deepen their protection crisis and further destabilize the region. Ultimately, the war has worsened existing vulnerabilities for Afghan refugees, leaving them with fewer options for safety both in Iran and Afghanistan. The Erosion of Refuge For over four decades , Afghans have migrated to Iran in search of safety and stability. Conflicts, political turbulence, and economic problems in Afghanistan have forced several waves of the Afghan population to flee abroad, with the majority seeking refuge in neighboring countries such as Iran and Pakistan. The proximity of its borders and similarity in cultural backgrounds and language have all been significant factors in fueling this common pathway. Unlike most major host states, Iran has hosted Afghans primarily in cities rather than camps. This has allowed them to attend school, work, and build a strong community base within the country. In recent years, however, many of these opportunities and protections have been gradually stripped away. Even before the start of the war between the United States and Iran in February 2026, the protection system that was in place for Afghan refugees in Iran had started changing for the worse. The reemergence of the Taliban to power in 2021 brought about yet another wave of Afghan refugees but also marked a change in Iran’s stance towards the protection of refugees. Legal protection became even harder to acquire, as Afghans found themselves with either temporary documents or no documents at all, which ultimately led to an increase in deportations . Since the return of the Taliban in 2021, Iran has moved from providing temporary legal protection for Afghan migrants to implementing strict migration control. While the Iranian government conducted a country-wide ‘ headcount ‘ system in 2022, which registered millions of undocumented Afghans and provided them with temporary documentation, it did not offer long-term protection. In fact, Iran instead tightened its borders and deportation process for undocumented migrants and stated that headcount documents would expire in March 2025, which put many migrants at risk of losing legal status and services. The expiration of these documents therefore left many Afghans who had previously held temporary documentation without legal status. As a result, Afghan refugees who lost their documented status have lived under the threat of deportation, and many have returned to Afghanistan out of fear of being arrested. By the time the U.S.-Iran war started, the protection of Afghan refugees had already been significantly weakened, while support systems in Afghanistan faced growing pressures and funding cuts. Despite accumulating pressures, many Afghan refugees still chose to stay in Iran since it provided opportunities that Afghanistan lacked . Iran provides greater access to employment, education, and medical opportunities in comparison to Afghanistan, which has been stuck in economic crisis and in desperate humanitarian need. Moreover, the imposition of new restrictions from the Taliban reduced the capacity to be able to reintegrate returning refugees. The 2026 conflict did not create any of these vulnerabilities but rather uncovered and amplified them. When Refuge Became Unsustainable The beginning of the war between the United States and Iran created a completely different setting for Afghan refugees. With over 5,000 targets struck during the first ten days of the conflict, destruction of vital infrastructure, interruption of refugee services, and overall increase in the level of insecurity, the need for humanitarian aid skyrocketed. Interviews with refugees reveal how intensely the conflict affected their lives. Universities closed, jobs disappeared, and journeys to the border became increasingly dangerous as attacks intensified. These personal accounts show that the large number of returns to Afghanistan was not due to improved conditions there, but rather the instability that was brought upon Iran. Furthermore, many of the refugees affected by the conflict did not have any secure legal status due to Iran’s refusal to process any new refugee claims in the past twenty years, making them even more vulnerable due to increasing insecurity and the threat of deportation. For many Afghan refugees, their ability to stay in Iran was not dependent on safety but on whether it was financially feasible for them to sustain themselves given the current economic pressures . Before the conflict, many refugees had jobs in agriculture, manufacturing, transportation, and other types of informal jobs. Although these jobs were irregular and low paying, they allowed refugees to pay rent, buy food, look after their families, and survive during a time of very strict immigration regulations. The conflict soon shattered the already-fragile lives that Afghan refugees had spent years to build. With the slowdown in business operations, the suspension of construction projects, and the disruption of transportation systems, informal employment options became very limited. Those who relied on daily wages lost their source of income and stood the least chance of receiving any kind of financial help as they were not covered by formal labor protections. The conflict also disrupted access to essential services. Many Afghan refugees have found much more in Iran beyond physical protection or financial gains. Refuge in Iran has given them an opportunity to get higher education, medical help, and have a chance for a better future. As reported by OCHA, there were over 149,000 civilian infrastructure units destroyed by the conflict, including residential units, commercial premises, universities, schools, healthcare institutions, and transport facilities. Over 1,500 educational institutions and 245 health institutions were also impacted, causing significant disruptions to both the education and healthcare systems. Such disruptions went much further than just physical damage to property. Education and healthcare were means through which Afghan refugees were able to achieve some degree of normality after having gone through decades of legal and economic insecurity. According to OCHA, there was extensive destruction of health infrastructure, a shortage of almost 1,000 different types of medicine, an increase in medicine prices, and an increase in overall humanitarian needs due to inflation and the country’s overall economic crisis. Refugees faced the greatest amount of difficulty, in terms of healthcare and protection, due to the instability of their immigration status. As access to healthcare, documentation, financial support, and protection was becoming increasingly difficult, the conditions that allowed them to remain in Iran previously became even weaker. Return Without Protection The erosion of protection in Iran is visible in the number of Afghans leaving it. Departures had been rising for years under an expulsion campaign, and the twelve-day Israel-Iran war in June 2025 accelerated rather than interrupted them. Deportations paused briefly during the fighting, then spiked across several Iranian cities and triggered “one of the largest forced movements of the decade” according to the Mixed Migration Centre . Daily crossings into Afghanistan exceeded 40,000 at their peak, and roughly 585,000 Afghans left Iran in July 2025 alone. In 2026, UNHCR reports 426,700 departures by August. Of these, they estimate that 82% of the total returns have been deportees. The recent returns following the U.S.-Iran conflict should not be read as evidence that protection concerns for Afghan refugees have been resolved. For return to be a durable solution , individuals must have the opportunity to rebuild their lives with access to basic services including education and healthcare. The post-return conditions add yet another layer of complexity to the returns. According to UNHCR, 88% of returnees faced debt, 65% were food insecure, 57% relied on daily-wage jobs, and 45% of children did not attend school. These statistics clearly indicate that for many Afghan refugees, return to Afghanistan meant very little in terms of an end to their displacement journey. The crucial policy question is not just about the number of individuals who returned, but rather whether returning provides an environment for long-lasting protection. For the Afghan refugees who have been impacted by the war between the United States and Iran, crossing the border does not guarantee any kind of stability. Returns, the Next Step of Vulnerability While the 2026 conflict between the United States and Iran was not the reason why Afghan refugees in Iran faced such a protection challenge, the conflict exacerbated issues that were developing even before its outbreak. Before the conflict took place, Afghan refugees in Iran had already experienced legal insecurity, deportation threats, and had limited possibilities to receive protection from Iran. As a result, the war led to a situation where Afghan refugees could do nothing else but return home even though Afghanistan lacked a sustainable reintegration system. The report shows that the rise in returnees is not an indication that the situation for refugees has improved. Instead, it shows the reduction in options for refugees stuck between the conflict in Iran and instability in Afghanistan. For the Afghans, going back to their country was not the end of being displaced, but another step of the journey of vulnerability caused by conflicts and legal uncertainty.

By: USCRI Policy & Advocacy Intern (Summer 2026)

Edited by William Evans, Policy Analyst

In February 2026, when the U.S.-Iran War first broke out, military and geopolitical dimensions of the conflict immediately became the center of international attention. Public debate and discussion revolved around the issue of strategic considerations, stability, and possible escalation into wider military involvement, paying relatively little attention to the human toll of the war. As USCRI first reported in War in a Fragile Region and later reiterated in its April Situation Update , the heaviest price is being paid by vulnerable, often displaced, people. One of the groups particularly vulnerable to this war are Afghan refugees in Iran .

Since 1979, Iran has been one of the main host countries for Afghan refugees fleeing several waves of conflict , from the Soviet invasion in 1979, to the U.S.-led war starting in 2001, and the Taliban’s return following the U.S. withdrawal in August 2021, after which more than one million Afghans fled to Iran. Before the start of the current conflict in February, it was reported that around 3.8 million forcibly displaced individuals, the majority of whom are Afghans, reside in Iran. Most were based in cities where they depended on informal labor markets for survival. In the last decade, they have faced growing legal and economic difficulties, including insecure or temporary immigration status, restrictions on where they can live and work, and limited access to formal employment and public services.

The conflict between the United States and Iran in 2026 was not the primary factor behind the displacement of Afghan refugees. However, the war in Iran has further intensified an already tense situation of displaced persons in Iran. The conflict degraded physical security and collapsed informal labor markets Afghans depended on, adding a new driver of return to the enforcement pressures already in place. This concern is also reflected in UNHCR’s 2025 Global Trends report , which recorded Afghanistan as having 1.9 million refugee returns, the largest number worldwide that year.

However, UNHCR noted that many of these returns took place under difficult circumstances, and that most returnees reported that they had no choice in the decision. Increased returns of Afghan refugees from Iran only deepen their protection crisis and further destabilize the region. Ultimately, the war has worsened existing vulnerabilities for Afghan refugees, leaving them with fewer options for safety both in Iran and Afghanistan.

For over four decades , Afghans have migrated to Iran in search of safety and stability. Conflicts, political turbulence, and economic problems in Afghanistan have forced several waves of the Afghan population to flee abroad, with the majority seeking refuge in neighboring countries such as Iran and Pakistan. The proximity of its borders and similarity in cultural backgrounds and language have all been significant factors in fueling this common pathway. Unlike most major host states, Iran has hosted Afghans primarily in cities rather than camps. This has allowed them to attend school, work, and build a strong community base within the country. In recent years, however, many of these opportunities and protections have been gradually stripped away.

Even before the start of the war between the United States and Iran in February 2026, the protection system that was in place for Afghan refugees in Iran had started changing for the worse. The reemergence of the Taliban to power in 2021 brought about yet another wave of Afghan refugees but also marked a change in Iran’s stance towards the protection of refugees. Legal protection became even harder to acquire, as Afghans found themselves with either temporary documents or no documents at all, which ultimately led to an increase in deportations .

Since the return of the Taliban in 2021, Iran has moved from providing temporary legal protection for Afghan migrants to implementing strict migration control. While the Iranian government conducted a country-wide ‘ headcount ‘ system in 2022, which registered millions of undocumented Afghans and provided them with temporary documentation, it did not offer long-term protection. In fact, Iran instead tightened its borders and deportation process for undocumented migrants and stated that headcount documents would expire in March 2025, which put many migrants at risk of losing legal status and services. The expiration of these documents therefore left many Afghans who had previously held temporary documentation without legal status. As a result, Afghan refugees who lost their documented status have lived under the threat of deportation, and many have returned to Afghanistan out of fear of being arrested. By the time the U.S.-Iran war started, the protection of Afghan refugees had already been significantly weakened, while support systems in Afghanistan faced growing pressures and funding cuts.

Despite accumulating pressures, many Afghan refugees still chose to stay in Iran since it provided opportunities that Afghanistan lacked . Iran provides greater access to employment, education, and medical opportunities in comparison to Afghanistan, which has been stuck in economic crisis and in desperate humanitarian need. Moreover, the imposition of new restrictions from the Taliban reduced the capacity to be able to reintegrate returning refugees. The 2026 conflict did not create any of these vulnerabilities but rather uncovered and amplified them.

The beginning of the war between the United States and Iran created a completely different setting for Afghan refugees. With over 5,000 targets struck during the first ten days of the conflict, destruction of vital infrastructure, interruption of refugee services, and overall increase in the level of insecurity, the need for humanitarian aid skyrocketed.

Interviews with refugees reveal how intensely the conflict affected their lives. Universities closed, jobs disappeared, and journeys to the border became increasingly dangerous as attacks intensified. These personal accounts show that the large number of returns to Afghanistan was not due to improved conditions there, but rather the instability that was brought upon Iran. Furthermore, many of the refugees affected by the conflict did not have any secure legal status due to Iran’s refusal to process any new refugee claims in the past twenty years, making them even more vulnerable due to increasing insecurity and the threat of deportation.

For many Afghan refugees, their ability to stay in Iran was not dependent on safety but on whether it was financially feasible for them to sustain themselves given the current economic pressures . Before the conflict, many refugees had jobs in agriculture, manufacturing, transportation, and other types of informal jobs. Although these jobs were irregular and low paying, they allowed refugees to pay rent, buy food, look after their families, and survive during a time of very strict immigration regulations.

The conflict soon shattered the already-fragile lives that Afghan refugees had spent years to build. With the slowdown in business operations, the suspension of construction projects, and the disruption of transportation systems, informal employment options became very limited. Those who relied on daily wages lost their source of income and stood the least chance of receiving any kind of financial help as they were not covered by formal labor protections.

The conflict also disrupted access to essential services. Many Afghan refugees have found much more in Iran beyond physical protection or financial gains. Refuge in Iran has given them an opportunity to get higher education, medical help, and have a chance for a better future. As reported by OCHA, there were over 149,000 civilian infrastructure units destroyed by the conflict, including residential units, commercial premises, universities, schools, healthcare institutions, and transport facilities. Over 1,500 educational institutions and 245 health institutions were also impacted, causing significant disruptions to both the education and healthcare systems.

Such disruptions went much further than just physical damage to property. Education and healthcare were means through which Afghan refugees were able to achieve some degree of normality after having gone through decades of legal and economic insecurity. According to OCHA, there was extensive destruction of health infrastructure, a shortage of almost 1,000 different types of medicine, an increase in medicine prices, and an increase in overall humanitarian needs due to inflation and the country’s overall economic crisis.

Refugees faced the greatest amount of difficulty, in terms of healthcare and protection, due to the instability of their immigration status. As access to healthcare, documentation, financial support, and protection was becoming increasingly difficult, the conditions that allowed them to remain in Iran previously became even weaker.

The erosion of protection in Iran is visible in the number of Afghans leaving it. Departures had been rising for years under an expulsion campaign, and the twelve-day Israel-Iran war in June 2025 accelerated rather than interrupted them. Deportations paused briefly during the fighting, then spiked across several Iranian cities and triggered “one of the largest forced movements of the decade” according to the Mixed Migration Centre . Daily crossings into Afghanistan exceeded 40,000 at their peak, and roughly 585,000 Afghans left Iran in July 2025 alone.

In 2026, UNHCR reports 426,700 departures by August. Of these, they estimate that 82% of the total returns have been deportees. The recent returns following the U.S.-Iran conflict should not be read as evidence that protection concerns for Afghan refugees have been resolved. For return to be a durable solution , individuals must have the opportunity to rebuild their lives with access to basic services including education and healthcare.

The post-return conditions add yet another layer of complexity to the returns. According to UNHCR, 88% of returnees faced debt, 65% were food insecure, 57% relied on daily-wage jobs, and 45% of children did not attend school. These statistics clearly indicate that for many Afghan refugees, return to Afghanistan meant very little in terms of an end to their displacement journey.

The crucial policy question is not just about the number of individuals who returned, but rather whether returning provides an environment for long-lasting protection. For the Afghan refugees who have been impacted by the war between the United States and Iran, crossing the border does not guarantee any kind of stability.

While the 2026 conflict between the United States and Iran was not the reason why Afghan refugees in Iran faced such a protection challenge, the conflict exacerbated issues that were developing even before its outbreak. Before the conflict took place, Afghan refugees in Iran had already experienced legal insecurity, deportation threats, and had limited possibilities to receive protection from Iran. As a result, the war led to a situation where Afghan refugees could do nothing else but return home even though Afghanistan lacked a sustainable reintegration system.

The report shows that the rise in returnees is not an indication that the situation for refugees has improved. Instead, it shows the reduction in options for refugees stuck between the conflict in Iran and instability in Afghanistan. For the Afghans, going back to their country was not the end of being displaced, but another step of the journey of vulnerability caused by conflicts and legal uncertainty.

On World Humanitarian Day, we pause to recognize the importance of providing lifesaving assistance to those in need, and to...

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