미국-이스라엘-이란 전쟁이 중국 제조업에 미치는 영향
China weathered Trump's tariffs - but the Iran war is taking a toll - bbc.co.uk
이란 전쟁의 확대로 글로벌 무역이 불안정해지면서 중국 수출 경제에 부정적 영향을 미칠 것으로 보입니다.
핵심 요약
중국 광둥성 공장 노동자들은 시급 3~4달러짜리 일용직을 찾아야 하는 경제적 어려움을 겪고 있습니다.
핵심요약
- 광둥성 공장 노동자 시급 18
20위안(약 34달러) - 도널드 트럼프 관세 부과 이후 중국 GDP 성장률 약 5%
- 호르무즈 해협 해상 운송 차단으로 중국 경제에 추가 압박
- 40대 이상 노동자 일자리 불안과 저임금 불만 증가
도입
이 기사는 중국 제조업의 구조적 변화와 중동 전쟁이 중국 경제에 미치는 영향을 분석한 것입니다. 투자자들에게는 중국 경제의 취약점을 이해하고, 중동 정세 변화에 따른 리스크를 평가하는 데 중요한 정보를 제공합니다.
본문 1: 중국의 제조업 구조적 변화
중국 제조업은 저가 양산 제품에서 고급 기술 제품으로 전환하고 있습니다. 광둥성 공장 노동자들은 시급 3~4달러짜리 일용직을 찾아야 하는 경제적 어려움을 겪고 있습니다. 이는 중국 제조업의 구조적 변화가 노동자들에게 미치는 영향을 보여줍니다. 중국 정부가 고급 기술 제품으로의 전환을 촉진하기 위해 노력하고 있지만, 노동자들에게는 일자리 불안과 저임금 문제가 지속되고 있습니다.
본문 2: 중동 전쟁의 경제적 영향
중동 전쟁은 호르무즈 해협의 해상 운송을 차단하면서 중국 경제에 추가적인 압박을 가하고 있습니다. 호르무즈 해협은 중국이 중동에서 수입하는 석유의 30%가 통과하는 중요한 해상 운송로입니다. 중동 전쟁으로 인해 중국은 석유 수입에 대한 리스크가 증가하고 있습니다. 중국 정부는 중동 전쟁이 종결되기를 희망하고 있지만, 전쟁이 장기화될 경우 중국 경제에 더 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.
본문 3: 중국 경제의 전망
중국은 석유 저장량과 신재생 에너지 분야의 선도적 지위로 연료 위기에서 어느 정도 보호받고 있습니다. 그러나 중동 전쟁과 제조업의 구조적 변화가 중국 경제에 미치는 영향을 고려할 때, 중국 경제는 여전히 취약한 상황입니다. 중국 정부는 제조업의 구조적 변화를 촉진하고, 중동 전쟁의 영향을 최소화하기 위해 노력해야 합니다.
결론
이 기사는 중국 제조업의 구조적 변화와 중동 전쟁이 중국 경제에 미치는 영향을 분석한 것입니다. 중국 경제는 여전히 취약한 상황이며, 중국 정부는 제조업의 구조적 변화를 촉진하고, 중동 전쟁의 영향을 최소화하기 위해 노력해야 합니다. 투자자들은 중국 경제의 취약점을 이해하고, 중동 정세 변화에 따른 리스크를 평가하는 데 중요한 정보를 제공합니다.
Original Article
China weathered Trump's tariffs - but the Iran war is taking a toll - bbc.co.uk
Watch: How the US-Iran war is costing China
It's a sombre gathering in the backstreets of one of China's biggest manufacturing hubs, where workers are smoking under a tree in front of storefronts advertising temporary factory jobs.
"No-one understands what our life is like," says one man who is unwilling to be named.
"We work and work and have no life. Please help us," another adds - a rare, risky plea to a foreign journalist.
They seem desperate, struggling to earn enough to send money home, as they cope with the massive shifts in Chinese manufacturing, from cheap, mass-produced goods to automated advanced tech.
And that was even before the US-Israel war with Iran shook the global economy.
China's economy was already battling slower growth and unemployment when Donald Trump's tariffs hit last year. Still, it proved resilient, boosting exports and reporting GDP growth of around 5%. But the discontent continued to simmer. And now the Middle East conflict is starting to take a fresh toll, putting pressure on factory orders, costs and jobs.
In Foshan, in the southern industrial province of Guangdong, the workers' best opportunity is plastered in bright red lettering in front of them: a few weeks of moulding plastic, or screwing together parts of a mobile phone, for 18 to 20 yuan an hour, which amounts to just a few dollars or pounds.
"I'm going to try and find work elsewhere," says another worker from a rural province. Most are well over 40 years old, and frustrated at yet more uncertainty.
This is one of the reasons Beijing is calling for the war to end.
China's manufacturing industry has shifted in recent years, from mass-produced goods to advanced technology (file photo)
China's enviable oil reserves and the lead it has taken in renewables and electric cars have insulated it from the worst effects of the fuel crisis. But even as it puts on a show of steady strength, the war is choking the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping route , and that is causing more pain to a sluggish Chinese economy that is heavily relying on exports.
"Costs have gone up around 20%," says one trader who didn't want to be named, as she organises workers to move cylinders of fabric from the back of a truck to a line of carts, which will take them to local factories to be cut and sewn into clothes for the world's retailers, from Zara to Shein to Temu.
This is the world's largest fabric market â in Guangzhou, an hour's drive from Foshan - and the streets pulse with motorbikes laden with rolls of vibrant textiles, as small vans and trucks honk their way through to pick up and drop off loads. The shops are hard to distinguish among the piles of nylon, polyester and silk, but each owner and seller had a similar story.
Their trade needs a cheap and steady supply of oil in the form of petrochemicals, without which they cannot produce fabric. And higher oil prices are now hitting them hard. "It means fewer orders," says one trader over tea in a back room office. He adds that some customers are refusing to pay more and rolls of fabric are piling up in the warehouse.
If they don't pass the rising cost on to the customer, they absorb it themselves. That is hard for those who're already working with slim margins.
A year ago, when the US and China were locked in a trade war, there was defiance on the streets of Guangzhou. This time, there is resignation.
Fabric sellers in Guangzhou are worried about rising costs
But there is still opportunity amid the uncertainty.
A short drive away, manufacturers are welcoming buyers from around the world in the cavernous halls of the Canton Fair. Humanoid robots wave and sing as international visitors take selfies.
This is the China that leaders in Beijing want the world to see. A country looking towards the future and building new technology while its rival, the United States, is embroiled in a war in the Middle East.
There are large queues to try on AI glasses that claim to translate foreign languages and robotic legs to help climb mountains. There are plenty of everyday gadgets too, from vacuum cleaners that can clear stains in seconds to shiny espresso machines and hair curlers.
The one thing that is common is that their price is going up, traders say. For one, they are made of plastic, which uses oil in the manufacturing process.
But buyers are still turning up because businesses are ploughing on to serve the market - and the war has driven home China's edge in one key sector in the wake of fuel shortages: electric vehicles (EVs).
Joyce Liu is looking for buyers beyond the Middle East for electric vehicles