고배당주 10년 장기 투자 성과 비교 분석
If You'd Invested $10,000 in Each of These 3 High-Yield Stocks 10 Years Ago, Here's How Much Income You'd Collect Today
수익률 압축은 고수익 투자자들에게 구조적인 역풍을 시사하므로 단기적으로 약세(Short) 편향을 보입니다.
핵심 요약
AGNC Investment는 배당 감소를 경험했으나, Ares Capital은 10.7%의 수익률을 기록하며 더 안정적인 배당 성과를 보였습니다.
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Original Article
If You'd Invested $10,000 in Each of These 3 High-Yield Stocks 10 Years Ago, Here's How Much Income You'd Collect Today
We can learn a lot by looking back at how investments have performed over the long term. Here's how much dividend income you could be collecting today if you invested $10,000 each in three popular high-yield dividend stocks:
Data source: Company websites and Ycharts.
Those numbers alone don't tell the entire story. Here's a closer look at each of these high-yielding dividend stocks , which can teach us some valuable lessons about income investing.
AGNC Investment: The big yield didn't last
AGNC Investment ( AGNC +1.47% ) traded right around $20 per share 10 years ago. At the time, the mortgage REIT paid a monthly dividend of $0.18 per share. A $10,000 investment made a decade ago would have generated nearly $1,090 in annual dividend income at that rate, or a 10.9% yield. Today, the income stream is 33% lower.
So, what went wrong? AGNC Investment cut its monthly dividend in 2019 to $0.16 per share and again in 2020 to the current monthly rate of $0.12 per share. That's due to changes in interest rates over the years, which can meaningfully affect mortgage REIT earnings.
The good news is that AGNC Investment has been much more stable in recent years, maintaining its payout for 75 straight months . The REIT's dividend currently aligns with its returns, suggesting it can sustain its dividend, which currently yields almost 13% at its recent $11 share price (a 45% drop from a decade ago). While that's an enticing payout, the REIT's history suggests it's a higher-risk income stream, as investors have seen their income and share value drop in the last decade.
Ares Capital: The big yield keeps getting bigger
Ares Capital ( ARCC +0.66% ) has delivered a much better outcome for income-seeking investors over the last 10 years. A $10,000 investment in the business development company (BDC) a decade ago would have generated about $970 in dividend income in the first year at a going-in yield of roughly 10.7%. Whereas AGNC's dividend income has declined, Ares Capital's has grown 26%.
It's worth noting that the BDC didn't just increase its dividend payout ratio to deliver a higher dividend; it has grown its earnings over the past decade to support the higher payment. That earnings growth has contributed to its rising stock price (recently around $20 a share, up more than 27%), adding to its total return.
That's due to its strong loan underwriting capabilities (1% average annualized net realized gain in excess of losses since its IPO) and its ability to grow its investment portfolio accretively. Its long track record of growing shareholder value includes 17 years of dividend stability and growth .
ONEOK: The high-octane dividend grower
ONEOK ( OKE -1.09% ) also showcases the power of dividend growth. A $10,000 investment into the pipeline stock 10 years ago would have generated about $495 in annual dividend income (a nearly 5% yield). Today, that investment would generate over $860 in annual dividend income, a 74% increase over the past decade.
Again, ONEOK didn't just hike its payout ratio; it delivered real earnings-per-share growth. The pipeline company has grown its earnings per share at a 13% compound annual rate since 2017, driven by high-return organic expansion projects and value-enhancing acquisitions. That has contributed to the nearly 95% increase in its stock price over the past decade (recently around $95 a share).
ONEOK showcases the power of dividend growth, as it now provides investors with much more income and a much more valuable investment.
Look at the total (return) picture
It's easy to get caught up in the allure of a high dividend yield. However, the more important factor to consider is growth, especially dividend growth. That growth can meaningfully add to a dividend stock's total return over the long-term. Just look at how much it has added to the returns of ONEOK and Ares Capital in the past 10 years:
ONEOK, which has always had a lower yield, has actually generated the highest total return of this trio over the past decade. Ares Capital isn't very far behind, as its growth has provided an additional boost beyond its high yield. AGNC Investment, on the other hand, has seen its total return dragged down by its falling share price.
While this past performance doesn't guarantee these high-yield stocks will deliver similar returns in the future, it shows the importance of shifting your focus from yield to dividend growth. Investing in a lower-yielding stock today, like ONEOK, could have a much bigger payoff in the future as it grows its earnings. Similarity, if income is your primary focus, a growing company like Ares Capital is often a better long-term investment than a yield-only play like AGNC Investment.