핵심요약

• 이란 강경 지도부는 '공세적 작전'을 포함한 군사적 대립을 지속하는 전략을 구상하고 있습니다.
• 미국은 6개월 동안 전쟁에서 합의를 이끌어내는 데 어려움을 겪고 있습니다.
• 이 전략은 호르무즈 해협 통제 및 협정 만료 문제와 연관되어 있습니다.
• 이란은 미국으로부터 양보를 얻기 위해 계속된 전투와 압력을 유지해야 한다는 분석이 있습니다.

도입

본 기사는 이란의 강경 노선 변화가 글로벌 지정학적 환경과 에너지 시장에 미치는 영향을 분석합니다. 미국과 이란 간의 갈등이 군사적 대립으로 전환되고, 지역 동맹국들의 개입 가능성이 높아짐에 따라 중동 전체의 불안정성이 증대되고 있습니다. 투자자들은 이러한 지정학적 변동성이 에너지 가격과 글로벌 공급망에 미치는 잠재적 위험을 면밀히 평가해야 합니다.

본문 1: 지정학적 갈등의 심화와 전략적 변화

이란의 강경 지도부가 '공세적 작전'을 강조하는 것은 단순한 군사적 움직임을 넘어선 중대한 전략적 변화를 의미합니다. 이는 미국과의 협상에서 유리한 위치를 확보하기 위해 갈등을 지속해야 한다는 이란 내부의 판단이 반영된 결과입니다. 분석가들은 이 전략이 세계 세력의 균형을 변화시킬 수 있다고 보며, 이는 지역 내 권력 역학 관계에 직접적인 영향을 미칩니다. 특히 호르무즈 해협과 같은 핵심 해상 통로에 대한 통제권 다툼이 이 전략의 핵심 동인으로 작용하고 있습니다. 이는 에너지 수송로의 안전성과 안정성에 직접적인 위협을 가하며, 이는 국제 무역과 에너지 시장의 변동성을 키우는 요인입니다.

본문 2: 지역 동맹국의 개입과 대리전의 위험

이란의 군사적 입장이 강화됨에 따라 예멘과 이라크 등 지역 동맹국들의 동원 가능성이 높아질 것으로 예상됩니다. 이는 이란이 직접적인 군사 행동뿐만 아니라 대리 세력(예: 후티 무장단체, 이란 지원 민병대)을 통해 영향력을 확대하려는 시도로 해석될 수 있습니다. 이러한 대리전의 확산은 지역의 불안정성을 가중시키고, 사우디아라비아 등 주변국의 에너지 인프라에 대한 위협을 증가시킵니다. 이는 지역 안보 리스크가 경제적 비용으로 전환되는 경로를 제시하며, 투자자들은 이러한 지역적 충돌이 글로벌 공급망에 미치는 연쇄적인 파급 효과를 고려해야 합니다.

본문 3: 경제적 파급 효과와 장기적 전망

이러한 지정학적 긴장 고조는 중동 지역의 에너지 시장에 직접적인 영향을 미칩니다. 이란과 사우디아라비아 간의 갈등이 고조될 경우, 석유 및 천연가스 공급망의 불안정성은 국제 유가에 즉각적인 변동성을 야기할 수 있습니다. 또한, 지역 분쟁으로 인해 물류 비용이 증가하고 무역로가 차단될 경우, 이는 글로벌 인플레이션 압력으로 작용할 수 있습니다. 장기적으로 볼 때, 이란의 군사적 전략 변화는 지역 내 권력 균형을 재편하며, 국제 사회의 개입 여부와 중재 노력에 따라 중동 지역의 장기적인 안정성이 결정될 것입니다. 따라서 투자자들은 지정학적 리스크를 반영한 위험 프리미엄을 시장에 반영하는 데 주의를 기울여야 합니다.

결론

이란의 강경 노선 변화는 단순한 양자 간의 갈등을 넘어선 다층적인 지정학적 리스크를 내포하고 있습니다. 군사적 대립의 지속 가능성과 지역 동맹국의 개입 여부가 향후 중동 지역의 경제적 안정성을 결정하는 핵심 변수가 될 것입니다. 시장은 이러한 지정학적 변동성에 민감하게 반응할 것이므로, 에너지 및 지역 관련 자산에 대한 포트폴리오 조정 시 지정학적 리스크 평가를 최우선으로 고려해야 할 것입니다.

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원문 링크: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxQMU90bmlZbW9BQnBCclYtajE4aEh0bUNkNGdhNE43VWx3SWZibTZhSFNOR3cwWWpXUHllMEZNQTRXY0NIVFBYVjktUXZEblJpamw3Q3M5OXZYckE0cXF1RElHb3EzTU9VTW5QYU1nYUFGdFF4bUJWMUU1YVhuaElKUEJqRFl0WUlIX1dN?oc=5

Iran’s latest warning to the US signals the hardliners are just getting started - CNN

US President Donald Trump is struggling to extract the United States from a war that he started almost six months ago – alternating between claims that Tehran is “begging” for a deal, and threats to renew military attacks. Now Iran’s hardline leadership is devising and promoting its own strategy for continued confrontation with Washington. The strategy emphasizes “offensive operations” as well as defensive action to neutralize enemy threats, according to one Iranian official. The more assertive stance comes as a US-Iran agreement intended to end the war, the Memorandum of Understanding, expires with control of the Strait of Hormuz still in dispute. Iran’s military leaders believe they are in a strong position to extract concessions from the US and can further adapt Iran’s weapons systems to bridge the gap with their more powerful adversaries, according to analysts. It also likely means greater mobilization of Iran’s allies in Yemen, Iraq and elsewhere. In recent weeks, Houthi militants in Yemen have threatened Saudi shipping and struck Saudi oil refineries, while Iranian-backed militia in Iraq have targeted Saudi oil infrastructure. The starting gun for the new posture in Tehran sounded with decrees reorganizing Iran’s security leadership last week issued in the name of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. An adviser to Khamenei, Mohammad Mokhber, said the “strategy of shifting the war to an offensive posture if Iran’s conditions are not met will undoubtedly transform the balance of power in the world.” The new head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaie, belongs to a faction of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) that believes “the only way to get concessions from the US is the continuation of fighting, exerting pressure on the US and a steady dose of pain on Donald Trump,” Sina Azodi, assistant professor of Middle East politics at George Washington University, told CNN earlier this month. In confirming Ahmad Vahidi as the IRGC’s chief, Mojtaba’s decree spoke of the need to increase preparedness for “strong offensive operations against the enemy.” It was “clear that Vahidi’s mandate was to revise Iranian military strategy in a more assertive and offensive direction,” according to Hamidreza Azizi at the Clingendael Institute, a Dutch think tank. Days after that decree was issued, a senior IRGC official – political deputy Brig. Gen. Yadollah Javani – told Iran’s semi-official news agency Fars that “Iran’s actions are defensive, although they may also take on an offensive aspect in the future.” The IRGC is developing the ability to carry out operations “on enemy soil,” said another adviser to Vahidi, Mohammad Reza Naqdi. “We need to be able to move the operations to the enemy’s soil, whenever this is needed and ordered,” he told state broadcaster IRIB. The IRGC was tasked with being able to “launch attacks against the enemy in an intelligent, selective, and targeted manner.” This would imply again targeting US military facilities in the region. A new generation of more maneuverable ballistic missiles with cluster warheads, plus innovative use of drones, indicates Iran has adapted tactics rapidly over recent months. “The regime has withstood the US/Israeli barrage and retaliation from the Gulf Arab states, and they are still standing,” according to H.A. Hellyer, senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London. “Now they seek to transform this resilience into permanent political advantage in the region as opposed to letting the initiative waste away over time,” Hellyer told CNN. “Tehran believes it has the military edge and is openly discussing going on the offensive instead of merely responding to American attacks,” says Trita Parsi at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. “By that, Iran will not only have wrested control of the scope and geography of the war from the US, but also its timing.” Iran is preparing for short and long-term scenarios, Azizi believes. The current no-war-no-peace situation – with deepening economic problems – “may prompt the Iranian leadership to escalate in order to push Trump either to remove the naval blockade or to agree to an arrangement on terms more favorable to Iran,” he said. “The Iranian leadership may conclude that the costs of entering another war are lower than the costs of the gradual erosion of its capabilities under the dual pressure of sanctions and the blockade,” Azizi added. One part of this offensive doctrine is the persistent but unpredictable attacks on tankers leaving the Gulf – so as to keep oil prices high. Several operated by the United Arab Emirates’ state oil firm ADNOC have been targeted in recent weeks. IRGC officials have openly talked about sabotaging the many undersea cables running through the Gulf – another form of asymmetrical warfare. In the longer-term there may be a shift in Iranian priorities away from the axis of resistance that to an extent relied on non-state groups such as Hezbollah, the Houthis and allied militia in Iraq. “That element is becoming somewhat secondary to Iran’s own missile and drone capabilities, and with the greater confidence that Iranian commanders and leaders have gained during the war, signs of a shift toward a pre-emptive approach have already become clear,” Azizi said. That’s not to say that Tehran is going to abandon its proxies – far from it. Iranian state media dutifully report the movements and utterances of most senior officials. But they ignored the visit to Iraq last week of the commander of overseas operations for the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani arrived in Baghdad just as the new government, under US pressure, began moves to disarm Iranian-backed militia and integrate them into the regular army. Iraq is at the center of the regional tussle between Iran and the US. Iran has had substantial influence there since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003. Iran is unlikely to give up the leverage offered by having proxies spread across the region, even if some of them have been degraded by Israel or lost a foothold thanks to regime change, as is the case in Syria. Saudi Arabia could find itself surrounded on three sides if Iran and its regional proxies all went on the offensive. Iran remains heavily invested in providing the Houthis with expertise and intelligence, according to a Gulf source, while in turn the Houthis provide advice to Iraqi militia. But the main thrust of Iran’s revamped military leadership is to build a more agile war machine with a centralized command – and develop its missile and drone capabilities. “This major transformation in our defense sector is necessitated by current circumstances, so that we do not remain limited merely to preserving ourselves,” said Naqdi, the senior adviser to Vahidi. The regime feels it has the wind at its back. “They haven’t formalized control over the Strait of Hormuz, and while they are not in a rush, they want to press their advantage,” Hellyer told CNN. “The declaration of a more offensive posture is directed at their Gulf neighbors, the US and a domestic audience,” he added. “It’s an expression of confidence that is as much psychological as demonstrating military intent.” CNN’s Aida Karimi contributed to this report.

Source: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiiwFBVV95cUxQMU90bmlZbW9BQnBCclYtajE4aEh0bUNkNGdhNE43VWx3SWZibTZhSFNOR3cwWWpXUHllMEZNQTRXY0NIVFBYVjktUXZEblJpamw3Q3M5OXZYckE0cXF1RElHb3EzTU9VTW5QYU1nYUFGdFF4bUJWMUU1YVhuaElKUEJqRFl0WUlIX1dN?oc=5