이란, 주변국에 미사일 발사 및 책임 회피 전략 보도
Ordinary Iranians Are Tired of Years of War and Dictatorship - IranWire
지정학적 긴장 고조는 명확한 즉각적인 재무 촉매 없이 높은 변동성을 야기합니다.
핵심 요약
이란은 6개국에 미사일을 발사했으며, 언론은 책임보다 피해를 강조하는 방식으로 보도합니다.
핵심요약
- 이란은 요르단, UAE, 카타르, 쿠웨이트, 바레인, 오만 등 6개국에 미사일과 드론을 발사했습니다.
- 이란의 공식 매체는 공격에 대한 책임을 공개적으로 인정하지 않고, 대신 적대국의 민간인 피해를 강조합니다.
- 이란의 군사 행동은 국제 사회에 책임 회피를 통해 여론을 관리하려는 의도로 보입니다.
도입
본 기사는 이란의 군사 행동과 이를 둘러싼 미디어의 프레이밍 방식을 다루고 있습니다. 투자자 관점에서 이 기사는 지정학적 리스크가 어떻게 정보 통제와 여론 형성 전략을 통해 외교적 행동에 반영되는지를 보여줍니다. 이는 단순한 군사 충돌을 넘어, 국제 관계 및 에너지 시장의 변동성에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 데 중요한 통찰을 제공합니다.
본문 1: 지정학적 행동과 정보 통제
이란이 주변국에 대한 군사 공격을 감행하고 국제 사회의 주목을 받는 상황에서, 이란의 공식 매체는 책임 소재를 회피하고 국제 언론을 인용하는 방식을 채택하고 있습니다. 이는 군사적 행위의 결과와 도덕적 책임을 분리하여 제시함으로써, 이란 정권이 국제적 비난으로부터 자신을 보호하고 지지 기반을 유지하려는 정보 통제 전략으로 읽힙니다. 이러한 정보의 비대칭성은 외부 분석가들이 실제 위험 수준을 정확히 평가하는 데 있어 심각한 제약 요인으로 작용합니다. 즉, 실제 충돌의 규모와 민간인 피해에 대한 정보가 의도적으로 축소되거나 왜곡될 때, 시장은 이러한 정보의 불확실성을 프리미엄으로 반영하게 됩니다.
본문 2: 미디어 프레이밍과 위험 프리미엄
이란의 언론이 공격의 결과보다는 '부수적 피해'에 초점을 맞추도록 요구받는 현상은, 정보의 질이 투자 결정에 미치는 영향을 명확히 보여줍니다. 언론이 공격의 실질적인 규모와 민간인 피해를 강조할 때, 이는 해당 지역의 지정학적 불안정성이라는 위험 프리미엄을 상승시키는 요인으로 작용합니다. 투자자들은 공식 발표가 아닌, 비공식적인 경로를 통해 확인된 민간인 피해나 실제 군사적 긴장도를 추론해야 하며, 이는 시장의 위험 평가 모델에 새로운 변수를 추가하게 됩니다. 따라서 이란 관련 지역의 에너지 공급망이나 관련 산업에 대한 투자는 이러한 미디어 프레이밍의 불확실성을 반드시 고려해야 합니다.
본문 3: 장기적 전망과 에너지 시장의 연관성
장기적인 관점에서 볼 때, 이러한 정보 통제와 미디어 전략은 중동 및 이란 관련 지역의 에너지 시장에 구조적인 영향을 미칩니다. 이란의 군사적 행동과 정보 통제는 국제 에너지 시장의 변동성을 증폭시키며, 이는 국제 유가 및 관련 상품 가격에 직접적인 영향을 미칩니다. 또한, 국제 사회가 이란의 행동에 대해 일관된 평가를 내리지 못하고 모호한 정보에 의존하게 되면서, 제재의 효과와 지역 안보의 예측 가능성이 저하됩니다. 따라서 투자자들은 단기적인 군사적 사건뿐만 아니라, 이러한 정보 환경 변화가 장기적인 지역 안정성과 글로벌 공급망에 미치는 구조적 위험을 함께 분석해야 합니다.
결론
결론적으로, 이란의 군사적 행위와 이에 대한 미디어의 통제 전략은 단순한 국내 정치 문제를 넘어, 국제 지정학적 리스크를 평가하는 데 있어 정보의 신뢰성과 프레이밍의 중요성을 극명하게 보여줍니다. 투자자들은 공식 발표에 의존하기보다, 정보의 불균형이 시장에 미치는 파급 효과를 면밀히 분석하고, 지역 안정성과 에너지 시장의 장기적 변동성을 예측하는 데 있어 이러한 비대칭적 정보를 핵심 변수로 활용해야 할 것입니다. 향후에도 이란 관련 지역의 정책 변화와 국제적 긴장 고조에 따른 정보 흐름의 변화를 지속적으로 주시할 필요가 있습니다.
Original Article
Ordinary Iranians Are Tired of Years of War and Dictatorship - IranWire
On Monday, shortly after midnight, American attacks kept me awake. Until around four o’clock in the morning, Iranian military targets in the southern ports, and even in the central province of Arak, came under attack. Afterwards, it was the turn of the Islamic Republic’s naval and ground forces to launch missiles and drones at what were alleged to be American bases in Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and even the Sultanate of Oman.
In Iran’s official and semi-official media, whenever Iran strikes targets in neighbouring countries, responsibility is never openly acknowledged. Instead, the reports merely quote international media, as though some third party was responsible. Yet, before long, the spokesman for Khatam al-Anbia Headquarters issued a statement declaring: “Countries collaborating with the enemy are not safe from attack.” This has become the routine of both the Iranian media and military spokesmen.
In Persian, we journalists are expected to emphasise the collateral damage and civilian casualties suffered by Iran’s adversaries. For the managers of the local media, the missiles launched from Iran matter far more than the targets they hit in neighbouring countries or any American military installations in the region.
On Tuesday, from shortly after midnight and throughout the day, the exchanges of fire continued across the southern ports. To understand the mindset of a seasoned journalist who remains loyal to the regime, I telephoned him on Tuesday evening. The loudspeakers and background atmosphere told me immediately that he was in a mosque, attending communal prayers and listening to eulogists praising and almost deifying the assassinated Supreme Leader.
We met around noon on Wednesday for a light lunch in a coffee shop inside the Milad-e Noor Shopping Centre in Shahrak-e Gharb.
He has always spoken candidly to me as a reform-minded, pro-regime journalist, and I have never tried to argue with him.
To provoke him, I asked: “Isn’t the free dinner, among other things, one of the incentives for attending these nightly gatherings in the mosques?”
“First of all,” he replied, “it’s not only the mosques. In the main squares, such as Valiasr and Enghelab, and in the eastern districts of Tehran, the nightly gatherings have continued even after our leader’s burial. Secondly, you know that, as the youngest son in a well-off family, I went to the front during the final year of the eight-year war when I was only thirteen.”
“This war with America could have been avoided. Yet you still attend gatherings where people constantly express hostility towards the American administration and Israel. Aren’t you, in a way, addicted to anti-Americanism and anti-Israeli sentiment?”
“Since my teenage years, I have devoted myself to defending the Islamic Revolution. To me, the American administration remains the Great Satan.”
“But these confrontations have left the country impoverished. Most ordinary people have gained nothing, while those with close ties to the ruling establishment have become wealthy. What has all this achieved?”
“The middle-ranking officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps sympathise with the poor. At the same time, however, we believe we must defend our Islamic sovereignty.”
“But this pursuit of sovereignty has alienated much of the urban population, particularly the middle classes. It has also fuelled mass emigration. Don’t you agree?”
“Once we drive America out of the Middle East and West Asia, economic growth and closer cooperation with Russia and China will gradually change people’s attitudes.”
“For forty-seven years, the authorities have steadily disillusioned much of the population. How can you possibly believe that this trend can now be reversed?”
“At these nightly gatherings, I meet people who once opposed the ruling establishment but have now repented and renounced their hostility.”
“Perhaps those who have changed their minds amount to ten per cent. But what about the forty per cent who, according to the Netherlands-based GAMAAN - the Group for Analysing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran—still favour overthrowing the ruling establishment?”
“Public opinion changes easily. If people’s economic conditions improve, attitudes towards the rulers can change just as quickly.”
“Well, we could continue this discussion indefinitely. Tell me instead: how do you and your like-minded friends in the IRGC see the future?”
“So far,” he said, “the ruling establishment has survived what it regards as an existential war over the past year. We believe we can continue this tit-for-tat conflict until the United States congressional midterm elections in November.”
“Last night, southern, south-eastern, and south-western Iran came under attack. Iran, in turn, launched what its own media unusually described as ‘Iranian missiles’ towards Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait,t and the United Arab Emirates. Don’t you and your friends in the middle ranks of the IRGC ever wonder whether this war can actually be won?”
“Winning is not our objective,” he replied. “Resilience is. If we can sustain this level of conflict for a few more months, Trump’s supporters in Congress will suffer politically, Netanyahu will be weakened, and reaching an armistice with the American administration will become as easy as eating a piece of cake or drinking a glass of water.”
“By then, aren’t your colleagues in the IRGC worried that another wave of unrest and street protests could erupt? I’m referring to the forty per cent cited by GAMAAN.”
“Oh, give it a rest,” he said. “Over the past two or three years, Mossad was allegedly planning to overthrow the government by arming Kurdish groups and replacing it with former President Ahmadinejad. According to reports in The New York Times, Haare,tz, and The Jerusalem Post, those plans ultimately failed.”
“Then how do you explain this? In a country where prisoners are executed on what many believe to be insufficient evidence - as we speak today, Mohammad Amini Dehghani has been executed—a former president who is allegedly a Mossad asset is not even summoned before the Revolutionary Court?”
“First of all,” he replied, “those who are executed have gone through the courts, although, admittedly, many have done so without access to a defence lawyer. Secondly, Ahmadinejad’s political fate is sealed, just as Rouhani’s is. Rafsanjani disappeared from the scene in his own time. Those regarded as high-profile Mossad collaborators are rarely put on public trial. If they do not leave the country in time, they simply disappear without creating any ripples.”
“Where is Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, Ahmadinejad’s closest adviser and former cabinet minister?”
“That’s a good question. I guess that he managed to leave the country, taking with him a large cache of classified documents.”
“Tell me this: where do you think both the Islamic Republic and Donald Trump will stand four months from now?”
“As Mehdi Mohammadi, senior adviser to Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and a member of the negotiating team, argued in a recent YouTube analysis, Iran’s strategy is to demonstrate maximum resilience to push Trump towards what he described as ‘political failure’.”