SpaceX 주가의 현재 하락은 단기적인 시장 심리 변화를 반영할 수 있으나, 장기적으로는 우주 운송 및 AI 컴퓨팅이라는 거대한 성장 동력에 기반합니다. 투자자들은 현재의 주가 움직임을 단순히 손실로 보지 않고, 스타십과 스타링크라는 두 핵심 사업의 상업적 성공 가능성을 중심으로 평가해야 합니다. 스타링크는 이미 10.3백만 명의 구독자를 확보하며 안정적인 수익 기반을 제공하고 있으며, 이는 SpaceX의 현금 흐름에 긍정적인 영향을 미칩니다. 또한, 스타십의 220,000파운드 탑재 용량을 통한 우주 접근 비용 절감 목표는 우주 경제 전반에 혁신을 가져올 잠재력을 가지고 있습니다. 특히, SpaceX가 AI 애플리케이션을 위해 우주에 데이터 센터를 발사하여 컴퓨팅 비용을 절감하려는 전략은, 우주 기술을 통해 지상에서의 컴퓨팅 비용을 혁신하려는 독특한 접근 방식입니다. 이는 AI 시대에 필수적인 컴퓨팅 인프라의 새로운 패러다임을 제시합니다. 따라서 투자자들은 단기적인 주가 변동성에 집중하기보다, 스타십의 상업화 단계와 AI 인프라 통합의 구체적인 진척 상황에 초점을 맞추어 장기적인 성장 잠재력을 평가해야 합니다. 기술적 진보가 현실적인 상업적 성과로 이어지는 시점에 주가는 재평가될 가능성이 높습니다.

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원문 링크: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/07/25/13-below-its-ipo-price-is-spacex-stock-a-buy/?.tsrc=rss

13% Below Its IPO Price, Is SpaceX Stock a Buy?

When Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies ( SPCX -2.68% ) -- commonly known as SpaceX -- priced its IPO at $135 per share, many said it was too expensive. And when it climbed to more than $200/share within a week, they said it was way too expensive .

But now SpaceX's stock has fallen more than 40% from its high and is trading at about $116 per share as I write this, 13.2% below its IPO price. Is this a sign of more losses to come or a buying opportunity? Here's what investors need to know.

SpaceX's business is built on getting things into space. In 2025, the world sent 3,194 metric tons of stuff into orbit, and SpaceX's flagship rocket launch business carried more than 80% of it.

Currently, the company is preparing its massive Starship megarocket for commercial use. Starship's huge 220,000-pound payload capacity would dramatically lower the cost of putting things into orbit and would almost certainly increase SpaceX's already dominant market share.

Meanwhile, the only profitable part of SpaceX's business, Starlink, has successfully built a vast network of nearly 10,000 communications satellites that provide broadband and mobile services to 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries, mostly in hard-to-reach areas. This is expected to be the primary driver of profits for the foreseeable future.

The company estimates that these two businesses together only have a total addressable market of about $2 trillion: less than the company's market cap at its peak. Growth is clearly a major part of the valuation here. So, how's that going?

In short, not well. SpaceX estimates an eventual $26.5 trillion market for its AI applications, but right now it primarily just sells compute to other companies. Google's parent company, Alphabet , for example, is renting compute capacity from SpaceX for $920 million per month.

That's a good start, but SpaceX's primary argument is that it can launch data centers into space , where it expects to lower compute costs thanks to the higher concentration of solar energy. But that plan can't get off the ground (literally) until Starship comes online. And SpaceX has now failed to launch its (apparently unlucky) 13th Starship test flight twice but intends to try again on Thursday.

Another delay or an unsuccessful launch would almost certainly send the stock lower. And even if this test flight is successful, many more tests and certifications remain before Starship reaches commercial viability.

Additionally, over the next year, various lockups of insider shares will expire, and up to 1 billion additional shares could be awarded through options, settlements, and the like. If and when those shares hit the market, they'll exert downward pressure on the stock. Downward pressure, without any obvious near-term growth catalysts, is a recipe for further share price declines.

Smart investors should probably wait to buy SpaceX shares , as they're likely to continue moving lower in the near term.

Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/07/25/13-below-its-ipo-price-is-spacex-stock-a-buy/?.tsrc=rss