핵심요약

• 모사드 지도부의 해임: 로만 고프만 국장이 임명된 후 지휘부 책임자들이 해임됨.
• 역사적 실패: 1997년 칼레드 마샬 암살 시도 실패는 모사드의 과거 운영 실패 사례로 기록됨.
• 이란 전쟁 실패: 이란을 무너뜨리려던 전쟁이 의도한 목표를 달성하지 못하고 전략적 패배로 귀결됨.
• 지정학적 결과: 이란이 세계 경제를 인질로 잡는 능력(Strait of Hormuz 통제)이 가장 가치 있는 무기가 됨.

도입

본 기사는 이스라엘의 핵심 정보기관인 모사드가 이란과의 전쟁에서 겪은 전략적 실패가 현재의 지정학적 환경과 국제 안보에 미치는 영향을 분석합니다. 투자자들은 이러한 지정학적 리스크가 에너지 시장, 중동 무역로의 안정성, 그리고 이스라엘-이란 간의 관계 변화에 어떤 영향을 미칠지 주목해야 합니다.

본문 1: 정보기관 운영의 실패와 내부적 역학 관계

모사드가 새로운 국장을 임명한 후 지휘부 책임자들이 해임되었다는 사실은 정보기관 내부의 구조적 문제와 운영 실패를 시사합니다. 이는 단순한 인사에 그치지 않고, 과거 1997년 칼레드 마샬 암살 시도 실패와 같은 과거의 작전 실패가 현재의 조직 운영에까지 영향을 미쳤음을 보여줍니다. 이스라엘 정보기관이 추구하는 목표와 실제 작전 수행 간의 괴리는 조직 내부의 신뢰와 효율성에 심각한 의문을 제기합니다. 이러한 내부적 혼란은 외부의 지정학적 압력이 가중될 때 정보 수집 및 전략 실행의 일관성을 저해하는 요인으로 작용할 수 있습니다. 즉, 조직 내부의 비효율성이 외부 위협에 대한 대응 능력을 약화시키는 것입니다.

본문 2: 전략적 목표 달성의 실패와 지정학적 재편

이스라엘이 이란에 대해 추진했던 목표, 즉 이란 정부를 붕괴시키고 핵 프로그램에 대한 압박을 가하는 전략이 실패했다는 점은 중동 지역의 권력 구도에 대한 근본적인 재평가가 필요함을 의미합니다. 암살을 통한 혼란 유도 전략이 오히려 알리 하메네이의 아들을 최고 지도자로 선출하는 결과를 낳았다는 점은, 정보전이 정치적 결과로 이어지는 과정에서 예측 불가능성과 역효과가 발생할 수 있음을 보여줍니다. 이는 정보기관의 개입이 의도치 않은 장기적인 정치적 결과를 초래할 수 있다는 점을 강조합니다. 결과적으로, 이스라엘의 군사적 개입이 예상했던 지정학적 이득을 가져오지 못하고, 오히려 이란의 대외적 적대감을 심화시키는 결과를 초래했습니다.

본문 3: 에너지 통제권과 장기적 위험

이란이 호르무즈 해협을 통제함으로써 세계 경제를 인질로 잡는 능력을 확보했다는 점은 중동 에너지 및 해상 무역로에 대한 통제권이 단순한 군사력 이상의 경제적 가치를 지님을 의미합니다. 이는 국제 에너지 시장의 변동성과 공급망 안정성에 직접적인 영향을 미치는 핵심 위험 요소입니다. 모사드의 실패는 이란이 전략적 자원을 활용하여 국제 정치에 영향력을 행사하는 능력을 강화시켰으며, 이는 장기적으로 이스라엘과 서방 국가들의 에너지 및 무역 전략에 새로운 제약 조건을 부여합니다. 따라서 향후 중동 지역의 안정성은 이란의 전략적 목표 달성 능력에 따라 결정될 가능성이 높습니다.

결론

모사드의 전략적 실패는 정보기관의 내부적 비효율성뿐만 아니라, 대이란 전쟁이라는 거시적 전략이 의도치 않은 지정학적 결과를 낳았음을 보여줍니다. 투자자들은 이러한 정보기관의 실패가 중동 지역의 지정학적 변동성과 에너지 시장의 불확실성을 높이는 핵심 동인으로 작용할 수 있다는 점을 고려해야 합니다. 향후 중동 지역의 안정성을 예측하기 위해서는 이란의 전략적 목표 달성 능력과 국제 사회의 대응을 면밀히 관찰할 필요가 있습니다. 이 지정학적 리스크는 장기적인 시장 변동성에 지속적인 영향을 미칠 전망입니다.

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The Mossad Suffers a Crushing Defeat Entirely of Its Own Making - The Intercept

Earlier this month , Roman Gofman, the new director of the Mossad, Israel’s shadowy national intelligence agency, dismissed the heads of its intelligence directorate and Iran division, known only by their heavily anonymized names “K” and “Y,” respectively. The Mossad prides itself on secrecy, and while terminations following the appointment of a new Mossad director aren’t unprecedented, such public oustings, which were reported by Israel’s mainstream news organizations, are almost unheard of.

The last known dismissals for incompetence came in 1997, when a botched attempt to assassinate Khaled Mashal, then chair of Hamas’s political bureau, resulted in the detention of several Mossad agents inside Jordan and a public relations disaster. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government found itself forced to supply the antidote for the poison its Mossad agents had administered, bringing down both the agency’s director and the director of operations.

Israel is now dealing with the aftermath of the largest mistake in its history, one of its own doing: its failed war on Iran. Sold to the United States as an easy war that would quickly bring down the Islamic Republic and its alleged nuclear weapons program, almost nothing Israel desired came to pass.

The promise of assassinating Ali Khamenei was that it would bring about governmental chaos and spur a spontaneous national uprising. Instead, it only led to the selection of his younger son as the new supreme leader, a leadership that may prove to be even more antagonistic to the United States and Israel than the previous one.

Israel also promised that any potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be militarily ineffective. Now, Iran’s ability to hold the world economy hostage — despite relentless claims by the U.S. that the waterway is “open” — is its most valuable weapon.

The Mossad’s particular role in this war involved weakening the Islamic Republic’s security structure in hopes of then funneling guns to Kurdish armed groups who would invade the country from Iraq, and then fuel mass demonstrations to topple the state. All of these lofty ambitions completely detonated on impact with reality, with Iran’s security structure remaining intact despite assassinations and airstrikes, Kurdish factions instead suffering constant Iranian military attacks, and no major protests occurring in any Iranian city, despite the massive anti-government protests in January that swept through the country.

For those who witnessed the Mossad’s public campaigns to encourage protests and defections — which it deployed in the open through Farsi-language social media accounts on X and Telegram bearing their name and seal — signs of the inevitable failure of this campaign were becoming evident. While images from June 2025’s Twelve-Day War of Mossad agents operating inside Iran and sabotaging Iranian military operations shocked many inside the country — that sabotage hampering Iran’s initial military response — its ability to change fundamental facts on the ground, and to move an entire country’s population against the sitting government, sputtered.

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The Mossad chose to shift its image as that war began, capitalizing on its perception as an all-powerful and omniscient force to offer its supposedly unlimited power to help the Iranian populace. This shift manifested through cryptic social media posts, sarcastic quote-tweets of Iranian officials, and offering gifts to those who answered questions by direct message. The Mossad offered remote medical services through WhatsApp , and former radio host Menashe Amir, who notably hosted an Israeli radio show in Farsi aimed at anti-Islamic Republic Iranians, made videos on the Mossad’s behalf encouraging Iranians to listen to what the intelligence agency had to say.

The effort produced little. Iranian officials openly mocked the campaign online from the start, and it became increasingly desperate as mass protests failed to materialize. AI-generated videos of Iranian prisons having their walls blown open, and of happy Iranians following their defections to Israel, did next to nothing. The Mossad has continued to post AI-generated videos using Grok to encourage collaboration following the ceasefire.

While accusations were levied (and arrests made) of supposed Mossad agents inside the Iranian protests in January , their infiltration, alleged or otherwise, did not end up toppling or even shattering the Islamic Republic. Instead, more than 7,000 protesters were killed that month, in addition to hundreds of police officers.

After the plan to arm Kurdish groups, in collaboration with the CIA, apparently fell apart — either by Trump’s veto or, as Trump claimed, because the Kurds simply kept the weapons themselves — the Mossad apparently came up with a quick Plan B . The new bright idea: Overthrow the government via an airstrike campaign against Iranian police stations and checkpoints manned by the Basij, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ paramilitary militia component. Despite extensive strikes in broad daylight, with some Iranians tipping off locations to opposition media outlets to help facilitate this campaign, the mass uprising, once again, did not arrive.

The war did not continue long enough for a comprehensive Plan C to come to fruition on the ground, with the Israeli military beginning to strike railways and manufacturing infrastructure, and Trump taking the lead on calling for the destruction of Iran’s energy infrastructure and bridges. Both are unified in their hope to strangle the country economically in hopes of pushing Iranian society into oblivion, but this outcome is only truly possible through American military means.

But even the U.S. has seen itself overextended , unable to resupply its missile interceptors for its own bases in the Middle East, and potentially unable to protect Israel as effectively as it had in the past should open conflict break out over its skies again.

News of the dismissal of the Mossad officials was met with disbelief in the Israeli media and by veterans of the intelligence service, who accused Gofman of suppressing the agency’s ability to function. By firing two deputies, security analysts accused him of foisting the agency’s failure onto underlings to shield the decisions made at the top levels of government from scrutiny.

While overthrowing the Iranian government has remained a popular idea among Israeli officials and other elected politicians, Netanyahu chief among them, other politicians have acknowledged its difficulty. Gadi Eisenkot, the former Israel Defense Forces chief of the general staff, has spoken of the unlikelihood of being able to overthrow the entire Iranian system, instead stating that operations should have continued “in the shadows.”

Reporting from Israel Hayom in May revealed that many in the Mossad were opposed to the idea of focusing resources on overthrowing the Iranian government, seeing it as a massive gamble. The Mossad’s former chief of influence operations, known as O., told the newspaper that he felt he had to sell the operation to many in the agency, despite the fact that “no one actually knows how to overthrow a regime or what the chances are that it will succeed.”

In March, just days before he would be killed in an Israeli assassination strike, Ali Larijani, then-secretary of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, told the Iranian news outlet ISNA that Netanyahu “seemed to believe that these attacks had set a movement in motion inside Iran and that, by portraying the system as being in disarray, he could incite the public.” But Larijani pointed out that in less than a day, the regime had appointed “replacements for the commanders who had been killed, addressed the public, changed the atmosphere, and, by issuing specific orders, authorized the launch of missiles.”

Netanyahu, having pushed for the military overthrow of the Iranian government across multiple American administrations , finally got the war he wanted. But neither raw force, nor covert operations executed on his orders, were enough to carry out his will.

While Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has remarked upon how the current situation is very much working for Israel — one in which southern Iran is constantly bombarded with no end, and America is doing all of the fighting and dying — Netanyahu has continued his rhetoric about the need to create the conditions for the fall of the Islamic Republic. But in a moment of rare humility, he admitted this may “not happen in a single day.”

Recent reporting from Ynet found Netanyahu’s government instructed both the Israeli military and the Mossad to prepare for a much larger campaign against the Iranian state, with eyes on a potential return to open war in autumn. As has been the case over and over again, in Yemen, Lebanon, Gaza, and now Iran, Israel hopes that what was not solved with bombs can still be won — this time with even more bombs.

IT’S EVEN WORSE THAN WE THOUGHT.

What we’re seeing right now from Donald Trump is a full-on authoritarian takeover of the U.S. government.

Court orders are being ignored. MAGA loyalists have been put in charge of the military and federal law enforcement agencies. The Department of Government Efficiency has stripped Congress of its power of the purse. News outlets that challenge Trump have been banished or put under investigation.

Yet far too many are still covering Trump’s assault on democracy like politics as usual, with flattering headlines describing Trump as “unconventional,” “testing the boundaries,” and “aggressively flexing power.”

The Intercept has long covered authoritarian governments, billionaire oligarchs, and backsliding democracies around the world. We understand the challenge we face in Trump and the vital importance of press freedom in defending democracy.

We’re independent of corporate interests. Will you help us?

IT’S BEEN A DEVASTATING year for journalism — the worst in modern U.S. history.

We have a president with utter contempt for truth aggressively using the government’s full powers to dismantle the free press. Corporate news outlets have cowered, becoming accessories in Trump’s project to create a post-truth America. Right-wing billionaires have pounced, buying up media organizations and rebuilding the information environment to their liking.

In this most perilous moment for democracy, The Intercept is fighting back. But to do so effectively, we need to grow.

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