미국-이란 협정이 유가와 식품 가격에 미칠 영향
How could the US-Iran deal affect oil prices and the cost of food? - BBC
미국-이란 협상이 석유 수출 회복 속도가 느려지면서 단기적으로 유가 변동성에 큰 영향을 미치지 않을 것으로 보입니다.
핵심 요약
미국-이란 협정 이후 호르무즈 해협을 통과한 선박은 2척에 불과해 석유 수송 정상화가 더딜 전망입니다.
핵심요약
- 호르무즈 해협을 통해 나간 선박은 2척에 불과합니다
- 석유 생산 및 정유 시설이 전력 운용에 도달해야 합니다
- 전문가들은 휴전이 취약할 수 있다고 경고합니다
- 석유 유통이 전전쟁 수준으로 돌아오는 데는 시간이 걸릴 것입니다
도입
미국-이란 협정이 중동의 지정학적 불안정을 완화할 수 있지만, 석유 시장에 미치는 영향은 여전히 불확실합니다. 투자자들은 협정이 지속 가능한지 여부와 호르무즈 해협의 석유 유통이 정상화되는 속도에 주목해야 합니다.
본문 1: 호르무즈 해협의 석유 유통 정상화 속도
호르무즈 해협을 통해 나간 선박은 2척에 불과하며, 이는 협정이 즉각적인 효과를 내고 있지 않음을 보여줍니다. 선박이 재배치되고 석유 생산 및 정유 시설이 전력 운용에 도달해야 하기 때문에, 석유 유통이 전전쟁 수준으로 돌아오는 데는 시간이 걸릴 것입니다. 이는 글로벌 석유 공급망에 영향을 미쳐 유가 변동성을 높일 수 있습니다.
본문 2: 협정의 지속 가능성 및 경제적 영향
네일 셰어링 그룹 수석 경제학자는 협정이 취약한 휴전인지 아니면 지속 가능한 정착인지에 대한 불확실성이 남아 있다고 지적했습니다. 이는 협정이 단기적인 효과를 낼 수 있지만, 장기적인 안정성은 보장되지 않을 수 있음을 의미합니다. 투자자들은 협정의 지속 가능성에 대한 불확실성이 유가와 식품 가격에 미치는 영향을 고려해야 합니다.
결론
미국-이란 협정이 중동의 지정학적 불안정을 완화할 수 있지만, 석유 시장에 미치는 영향은 여전히 불확실합니다. 투자자들은 협정의 지속 가능성 및 호르무즈 해협의 석유 유통 정상화 속도에 주목해야 하며, 이는 유가 변동성과 글로벌 경제에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 향후 협정의 실행 및 그 영향에 대한 추가 모니터링이 필요합니다.
Original Article
How could the US-Iran deal affect oil prices and the cost of food? - BBC
More than three months after the US and Israel first began their war with Iran, the White House and the Iranian regime have agreed a framework deal to bring about a more long-term end to hostilities.
The Middle East crisis sent global oil prices soaring as the conflict effectively closed one of the world's key water transport routes for oil, liquid natural gas and other essential commodities, limiting global supplies.
But experts warn a return to normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will take time, and the impact of the war will continue to affect the global economy for potentially months to come.
"Let the oil flow!" US President Donald Trump said in a social media post heralding the agreement, which he said would include the reopening of the strait to commercial shipping.
"Ships are starting to move," Trump declared later on Monday, "loaded up with oil, out of the Strait of Hormuz" which he said was "totally safe, secure and pristine".
BBC Verify has been checking ship-tracking data which appears to show that traffic levels remain low in the Strait of Hormuz, despite the announcement.
According to ship tracking website MarineTraffic, only two vessels with active location trackers have exited the waterway since Sunday - a bulk carrier and a tanker.
The strait has been closed to most shipping traffic since 28 February, with only limited numbers of vessels friendly to Iran able to pass through.
Hundreds of vessels have been stuck in the gulf, with the risk of sea mines or drone strikes driving up the danger to crews and preventing safe passage.
Neil Shearing, group chief economist for Capital Economics, said it remained to be seen whether the latest deal "represents a fragile truce or a durable settlement".
He added that it was likely it will "take some time for oil flows through the Strait to return to pre-war levels".
"Even if ships now have safe passage, tankers are in the wrong place, oil production/refining facilities need to get up to full capacity, and questions over the cost and availability of insurance for ships traversing the Strait will remain," he said.
Even before the agreement, during the ongoing ceasefire, shipping companies were largely reluctant to try to move their vessels out of the strait – and getting those vessels out will be their first focus.
Denmark's Maersk is the world's second biggest shipping line and has five ships that have been stuck in the Gulf because of this conflict. The firm said it was too early to assess how the agreement "will impact logistics", and that for now, there is no change to its operations in the region.
German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd has four ships stuck in the strait and hopes to get them out over the weekend, once the deal is signed and any remaining mines are cleared.
Normally, about a fifth of the world's oil and LNG supplies flow through the strait, and the effective halt to traffic has increased oil prices. That in turn has had a knock-on effect on petrol, diesel and jet fuel costs.
During the conflict, the price of Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, peaked at around $120 a barrel, whereas before hostilities broke out it was just below $70.
Following news of the framework deal, Brent fell to $83.55 a barrel.
President Trump said that the Strait of Hormuz would open once the "deal" is signed on Friday. Senior energy strategist at Rabobank Florence Schmit said there was a "strong possibility that we'll see a lot of volatility" in the lead up to the deal being signed.
"Some things are not confirmed on both sides – important things: we don't know if the deal will be signed," she told the BBC.
"What we've seen so far is a deal for 60 days for the opening of the Strait – but what happens after that? What if the Iranians want to re-insert a toll system?
"A full-scale peace agreement could still be a long way off."
Despite that, Schmit said normality in the system, including prices, "could return by the end of the year" if a full ceasefire is agreed upon. Normality would include the return of pre-war levels of 26 daily crude oil tankers going through the strait.
With the current positive news headlines and "sentiment-driven" sell-off, she said there is a chance the price could drop below $80 a barrel, but then it could average by end of year in the mid $80's again as "the geopolitics is stripped out" and the market assesses the reality of the situation.
Global food prices could also be helped if supplies of fertiliser get closer to normal levels again. Fertiliser, a by-product of oil, has soared in costs, putting pressure on farmers.