미국-이란 합의 체결, $240억 자산 해동과 60일간 핵 협상 포함
A peace deal may bring an end to the Iran war, but what did the US and Israel truly achieve? - The Conversation
평화 협상이 이란 전쟁 종결로 이어질 전망이지만, 미국이 지역에서의 영향력을 상실하면서 중동 지연 리스크가 완화될 전망입니다. 단기적으로는 시장 반응이 미미할 것으로 예상됩니다.
핵심 요약
미국과 이란은 60일간 핵 협상과 240억 달러 자산 해동을 합의했지만, 다른 주요 문제들에서 여전히 큰 차이를 보이고 있습니다.
핵심요약
- 60일간 핵 협상 진행
- 240억 달러의 동결 자산 해동
- 호르무즈 해협 30일 내 재개통
- 이란의 지역 영향력 강화
- 미국과 이스라엘의 전략적 약화
도입
이번 미-이란 합의는 중동 지역의 지정학적 균형을 재편할 수 있는 중요한 전환점이 될 수 있습니다. 투자자들에게는 이란의 경제 재건 가능성과 함께, 미국과 이스라엘의 전략적 위축으로 인한 리스크를 동시에 고려해야 하는 복잡한 상황입니다.
본문 1: 이란의 경제 재건과 에너지 시장 영향
이란의 동결 자산 240억 달러가 해동되면서, 이란의 경제 재건이 가속화될 가능성이 높습니다. 특히 에너지 수출이 재개되면서 글로벌 에너지 시장에 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상됩니다. 이는 중동 지역의 에너지 가격 변동성을 증가시킬 수 있으며, 이에 대비한 포트폴리오 조정이 필요할 수 있습니다.
본문 2: 미국과 이스라엘의 전략적 약화
미국은 이란과의 합의로 인해 중동 지역의 영향력이 약화될 전망입니다. 이는 미국과 동맹국 간의 관계에 영향을 미칠 수 있으며, 특히 이스라엘의 안보 전략에 큰 타격을 줄 수 있습니다. 이스라엘은 기존의 군사적 접근법을 재검토해야 할 필요가 있습니다.
본문 3: 중동 지역 동맹 관계의 재편
아랍 국가들은 이란을 새로운 지역 강자로 인식하면서, 기존의 미국과의 안보 동맹을 재고할 가능성이 있습니다. 이는 중동 지역의 정치적 안정성에 영향을 미칠 수 있으며, 이에 따른 투자 리스크를 고려해야 합니다.
결론
이번 미-이란 합의는 중동 지역의 새로운 균형을 만들 수 있는 중요한 계기가 될 수 있습니다. 투자자들은 이란의 경제 재건 가능성과 함께, 미국과 이스라엘의 전략적 약화로 인한 리스크를 동시에 고려해야 합니다. 향후 60일간 진행될 핵 협상의 결과가 중동 지역의 미래를 결정할 가능성이 높습니다.
Original Article
A peace deal may bring an end to the Iran war, but what did the US and Israel truly achieve? - The Conversation
After weeks of on-again, off-again negotiations, US President Donald Trump finally seems to have secured an agreement from the Iranian regime to end the war that has roiled the region – and global energy markets – since late February.
Just what’s been agreed to, however, will likely remain contested until the deal is expected to be signed on Friday.
Spurred on by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump launched the war on February 28 with the goal of toppling the Iranian regime and making Tehran capitulate – much as he had done in Venezuela.
However, he could not achieve this goal in the face of Tehran’s robust defensive response. Under enormous domestic and international pressure, Trump ultimately decided he had to take the diplomatic resolution available to him to end the conflict as quickly as he could.
The “memorandum of understanding” that Washington and Tehran have just announced is a confirmation of this reality.
It will leave Iran in a stronger position than before the war, the US with far less leverage in the region, and Israel in the lurch. The deal will also prompt the Arab states in the Persian Gulf to reassess their security alliances with the US and come to terms with Iran as an influential regional player.
Few apparent points of agreement
Iranian and US sources have provided different versions of the deal.
Both sides seem to have agreed to allow traffic to resume in the Strait of Hormuz and lift the US naval blockade of Iran’s ports. Negotiations will also continue over the next 60 days on Iran’s nuclear program.
Beyond this, the two sides appear to be far apart on other issues.
According to Iranian media , the deal would halt the fighting on all fronts, including Israel’s bombing of Lebanon, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days “under Iranian arrangements”.
It also calls for the release of US$24 billion in frozen Iranian assets during the 60-day negotiations, and obliges the US and its allies to deliver reconstruction plans for Iran worth at least US$300 billion.
According to the US media outlet Axios , however, the deal calls for the strait to be reopened immediately without tolls. A US official told Axios that after reopening the strait, Iran would be given “temporary sanctions waivers” to allow it to sell oil.
Trump also made no reference to Lebanon in his announcement of the deal on Truth Social, though Pakistani mediators said Lebanon was included in the deal .
Many contentious issues related to Iran’s nuclear program remain to be resolved, as well. These include the future of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium and whether Iran should be allowed to enrich uranium at an agreed level for peaceful purposes.
When Trump and Netanyahu launched the war, they aimed to topple Iran’s government, destroy its nuclear program and missile capability, and sever its ties with its regional affiliates – the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Yemeni Houthis, the Iraqi Shia militias, and Palestinian Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
The overall goal was to alter the regional order to the advantage of the US and Israel. This would allow Netanyahu to achieve his long-cherished objective of turning Iran into a feeble entity and pursue his vision of a “ Greater Israel ” in the strategically vital and oil-rich Middle East.
However, despite its authoritarian nature and all the domestic and foreign policy challenges confronting it, the Iranian Islamic system has shown it is built to survive. It has endured the decapitation of its leadership, the massive US-Israel military bombardment and subsequent US blockade of Iranian ports.
Iran has certainly sustained heavy damage to its infrastructure and economy – as well as civilian casualties. But the regime was able to respond in ways that has proved very costly for the US, its regional Gulf Arab allies, and Israel.
Its control over the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran never had before the war, has triggered a global energy and fertiliser crisis and provided Tehran with massive leverage.
Trump, meanwhile, was dealing with increasing domestic opposition to the war, combined with diminishing air defence interceptors and a lack of support among traditional US allies. Given all this, Trump has had good reasons not to allow the conflict to go on for too long, especially in an election year.
The deal must be very disheartening for Netanyahu, whose determination to fundamentally weaken Iran is potentially unravelling.
He may still try to undermine the peace deal by continuing strikes on Lebanon and perhaps formally annexing Gaza and the West Bank. But given Netanyahu’s dependence on the US for his military operations and political survival, Trump has plenty of leverage to force him and the far-right ministers in his cabinet into line.
If and when a final peace deal is signed, it carries the potential to open the way for some kind of rapprochement between Iran and the US as a prerequisite for a more stable and peaceful Middle East. But it is not time yet for excessive jubilation.
Both sides have been here before. They had been negotiating a deal on Iran’s nuclear program for months before the US and Israel attacked Iran. According to Omani mediators, a deal was “ within reach ” when the bombs started falling.
This means any ceasefire reached now could be very fragile. It also raises the question of what this war – waged with no concern for international law or US Congressional approval – was all about in the first place.