이란 평화 협상이 유가와 에너지 시장에 미칠 영향
Five ways the Iran peace deal could affect you and your money - BBC
평화 협상이 연료 가격 하락으로 이어질 수 있으나, 장기적인 영향은 불확실합니다. 따라서 단기적인 방향성을 예측하기 어렵습니다.
핵심 요약
이란 전쟁으로 영국 가솔린 가격이 리터당 22.67펜스 급등한 이후 평화 협상 체결로 하락세 예상되지만 장기적 영향은 불확실합니다.
핵심요약
- 2월 이란 전쟁으로 중동 유류 생산 및 운송 중단되며 유가 급등
- 영국 가솔린 가격 리터당 132.05펜스에서 154.72펜스로 22.67펜스 상승
- 미국 가솔린 가격 갤런당 $4.50까지 치솟은 후 현재 $3.97로 하락 중
- 평화 협상 체결로 유가 하락 전망이지만, 60일 내 핵 프로그램 협상 지연으로 장기적 영향 불확실
도입
이란 평화 협상이 체결되면서 전 세계 에너지 시장에 큰 변화를 예고하고 있습니다. 투자자들은 이 협상이 유가와 에너지 가격에 미칠 영향을 면밀히 분석해야 합니다. 특히, 협상이 장기적으로 유지될지 여부는 시장 변동성에 큰 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다.
본문 1: 유가 하락 전망과 그 의미
최근 유가 하락은 중동의 안정화와 호르무즈 해협 재개통에 대한 기대감에서 비롯되었습니다. 영국에서는 가솔린 가격이 리터당 154.72펜스에서 하락세로 전환되었습니다. 이는 소비자들에게 직접적인 혜택으로 이어질 수 있습니다. 그러나 RAC의 Simon Williams는 유가 하락이 주유소 가격으로 즉시 반영되지 않을 수 있다고 지적했습니다. 이는 에너지 기업들의 마진 관리 전략과 시장 수급 변화가 복합적으로 작용할 수 있음을 시사합니다.
본문 2: 협상 지연의 리스크
협상이 60일 동안 지연되는 것은 시장 불안정을 초래할 수 있습니다. 특히, 이란의 핵 프로그램에 대한 논의가 미루어지는 것은 장기적인 협상 성공 가능성에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 이는 투자자들에게 불확실성을 높이고, 에너지 시장의 변동성을 확대할 수 있습니다. 따라서 투자자들은 협상 진행 상황을 지속적으로 모니터링해야 합니다.
결론
이란 평화 협상은 유가 하락과 에너지 시장 안정화에 긍정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 그러나 협상 지연과 불확실성은 시장 변동성을 높일 수 있는 잠재적 리스크입니다. 투자자들은 협상 진행 상황과 에너지 시장의 동향을 면밀히 분석하여 전략을 수립해야 합니다.
Original Article
Five ways the Iran peace deal could affect you and your money - BBC
The outbreak of the US-Israel war with Iran in February caused shockwaves across the global economy.
The region plays a major role in global oil and gas supplies, and the closure of the key Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor has driven up prices on a wide range of things from energy bills to air fares.
On 18 June, Iran and the US signed a deal aimed at bringing an end to the war, with the Strait set to reopen.
But negotiations on some of the thorniest issues - including Iran's nuclear programme - will be deferred for 60 days, raising questions about how long this agreement will last.
Here are five ways the deal might affect your day-to-day life.
The war caused an immediate rise in motor fuel prices, as production and transport of oil in the Middle East slowed or stopped entirely.
Prices at the pump have started to drift lower in recent weeks on rising hopes for a peace deal.
But they are still far above where they were before the conflict began.
As of Thursday in the UK, petrol cost an average of 154.72p per litre, while diesel was an average 174.30p per litre, according to RAC Fuel Watch data.
Nearly four months ago, petrol was 132.05p a litre and diesel was 141.6p.
In the US, prices have also started to fall away since the average gasoline price topped $4.50 last month. The latest data shows the average gas price stands at $3.97 (£3) per gallon , up from $2.98 per gallon before the war started, while diesel has risen from $3.76 to $5.09 over the same period.
Simon Williams, head of policy at the RAC, said the recent fall in global oil and wholesale petrol prices if sustained - will "in time lead to much lower prices at the pumps".
But he said: "The big question is how fast will this happen, and whether the fall in pump prices happens as swiftly as the rise drivers had to endure through March and April did."
UK gas prices almost doubled at the beginning of the conflict, sparking fears of higher energy bills across the country. Gas is used directly in millions of homes for heating and hot water; it was also used to generate about 27% of our electricity last year.
The benchmark UK gas price was below 80p a therm before the Iran war began but was trading at around 157p by 19 March. Now it's back down at 98p per therm.
However, the consultancy Cornwall Insight says it would be "overly optimistic" to assume prices will quickly return to pre-conflict levels.
Firstly, the UK energy regulator Ofgem has already set its next price cap on household energy bills for July and it can't be changed. The average household bill is set to rise by 13% - or £221 – per year from next month. The cap covers 33 million households in England, Wales and Scotland.
The Gulf is where Europe gets around half of its jet fuel from. In the weeks following the start of the war, jet fuel prices soared from about $784 per tonne to $1,838, raising fears of shortages and higher flight prices.
Some airlines announced fare hikes , particularly for long-haul flights, but there was also evidence of European airlines cutting fares to try to overcome customer "hesitancy".
In recent weeks, jet fuel prices have fallen sharply to around $967 a tonne, but the aviation industry is not out of the woods yet, says Amaar Khan, a jet fuel specialist at Argus Media.
He says European airlines should have all the fuel they need to meet demand this summer and beyond. But he also expects jet fuel prices to remain above pre-war levels for much of this year.
Inflation, which measures the rate at which prices rise, had been falling in the UK and globally prior to the war. But the conflict has disrupted that overall downward trend, largely because of the rise in global energy prices.
In February, UK inflation fell to 3% and the Bank of England said before the current conflict it believed inflation could reach its 2% target by as soon as April.
In March, however, it climbed to 3.3% before settling at 2.8% in April and May .
Charlotte O'Leary, associate economist at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, says there is expected to be a "sizeable" upward impact on inflation when Ofgem increases its energy price cap in July.