핵심요약

• 모사드는 최근 정보국 및 이란 부서의 책임자들을 해임했습니다.
• 이전 해임은 1997년의 실패한 암살 시도 사건 이후 발생했습니다.
• 이스라엘은 이란에 대한 전쟁에서 원하는 결과를 얻지 못했습니다.
• 이란은 세계 경제를 인질로 잡는 능력을 가장 가치 있는 무기로 보유하고 있습니다.

도입

본 기사는 이스라엘의 정보기관인 모사드(Mossad)가 자국이 주도한 이란 전쟁에서 겪은 내부적, 외교적 실패의 심각성을 조명합니다. 투자자들은 지정학적 리스크가 어떻게 실제 경제적 자산에 영향을 미치는지 이해해야 합니다. 이 사건은 단순히 군사적 실패를 넘어, 정보 활동의 실패가 국가 안보와 국제 경제 질서에 미치는 광범위한 파급 효과를 보여줍니다.

본문 1: 정보 활동의 실패와 내부적 책임

모사드가 정보국 및 이란 부서의 책임자들을 해임한 것은 자국이 주도한 이란 전쟁이 기대와 달리 결과물을 내지 못했다는 내부적 책임을 반영합니다. 과거 1997년에 발생했던 실패 사례처럼, 정보 활동의 실패는 단순한 작전 실패를 넘어 국가적 위기로 이어질 수 있습니다. 이는 정보기관이 추구하는 목표 달성에 실패했을 때, 그 책임이 내부 리더십에 직접적으로 귀결됨을 의미합니다. 정보기관의 책임 소재를 명확히 하는 것은 향후 국가 안보 정책의 신뢰성을 확보하는 데 필수적입니다. 정보 활동의 실패는 단순히 군사적 손실로 끝나지 않고, 국가의 전략적 목표 달성 능력에 대한 근본적인 의문을 제기합니다.

본문 2: 이란의 전략적 지위와 경제적 인질 관계

이란이 세계 경제를 인질로 잡는 능력을 보유하고 있다는 점은 현재 지정학적 상황에서 가장 중요한 변수입니다. 특히 호르무즈 해협(Strait of Hormuz) 통제 능력은 국제 에너지 시장과 글로벌 공급망에 막대한 영향을 미칩니다. 이란이 이 지위를 활용하여 경제적 압박을 가하는 능력은 이스라엘과 미국의 전략적 계산에 중대한 영향을 미칩니다. 정보기관의 실패는 이러한 이란의 전략적 지위를 간과했을 가능성을 시사하며, 이는 국제 경제의 변동성(volatility)을 증폭시키는 주요 원인이 됩니다. 따라서 지정학적 리스크를 평가할 때, 단순한 군사적 충돌보다는 이란의 경제적 영향력과 해협 통제 능력이라는 실질적인 자산을 중심으로 분석해야 합니다.

본문 3: 장기적 전망과 리스크 관리

모사드의 내부 개혁은 단기적인 정치적 변화를 반영하지만, 장기적으로는 이란의 내부 역학 관계와 국제 정세의 복잡한 상호작용을 고려해야 합니다. 이란이 새로운 지도자를 통해 더욱 적대적인 노선을 취할 가능성은 기존의 전략적 예측을 무효화시킬 수 있습니다. 투자자들은 이러한 지정학적 변동성이 에너지 가격과 국제 무역 흐름에 미치는 영향을 면밀히 관찰해야 합니다. 정보기관의 내부 갈등과 외부의 경제적 압박이 결합될 때, 예측 불가능성이 커지므로, 리스크 관리 전략은 다각화되어야 합니다. 향후 국제 정세의 변화에 따른 자산 배분의 조정 가능성을 염두에 두어야 합니다.

결론

이번 사건은 정보 활동의 실패가 국가적 차원에서 얼마나 심각한 결과를 초래하는지를 보여주는 사례입니다. 향후 국제 질서에서 정보의 정확성과 전략적 판단의 중요성이 더욱 강조될 것입니다. 투자자들은 지정학적 변동성과 내부 정치적 불안정성이 결합된 상황을 고려하여, 장기적인 포트폴리오 전략을 수립해야 할 것입니다. 특히 에너지 및 해상 무역 관련 자산에 대한 민감도를 높여 평가할 필요가 있습니다.

---

원문 링크: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMidkFVX3lxTE93OUdUNkJzY3pSa3NqdkVMckVIVmtNVUJNMjZKZDNSNHIwYTFETGJPaXhEaExhY25YVnVwcDBXZUpwNmVTT2k2bE1FQXR3NlNWS1ZBLTBFaFhIdWx1VlF3TjVaTUZDeHh3UGdKenZxOV9iaTV3WEE?oc=5

Israeli’s Spy Agency Suffers a Crushing Defeat Entirely of Its Own Making - The Intercept

Earlier this month , Roman Gofman, the new director of the Mossad, Israel’s shadowy national intelligence agency, dismissed the heads of its intelligence directorate and Iran division, known only by their heavily anonymized names “K” and “Y,” respectively. The Mossad prides itself on secrecy, and while terminations following the appointment of a new Mossad director aren’t unprecedented, such public oustings, which were reported by Israel’s mainstream news organizations, are almost unheard of.

The last known dismissals for incompetence came in 1997, when a botched attempt to assassinate Khaled Mashal, then chair of Hamas’s political bureau, resulted in the detention of several Mossad agents inside Jordan and a public relations disaster. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government found itself forced to supply the antidote for the poison its Mossad agents had administered, bringing down both the agency’s director and the director of operations.

Israel is now dealing with the aftermath of the largest mistake in its history, one of its own doing: its failed war on Iran. Sold to the United States as an easy war that would quickly bring down the Islamic Republic and its alleged nuclear weapons program, almost nothing Israel desired came to pass.

The promise of assassinating Ali Khamenei was that it would bring about governmental chaos and spur a spontaneous national uprising. Instead, it only led to the selection of his younger son as the new supreme leader, a leadership that may prove to be even more antagonistic to the United States and Israel than the previous one.

Israel also promised that any potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be militarily ineffective. Now, Iran’s ability to hold the world economy hostage — despite relentless claims by the U.S. that the waterway is “open” — is its most valuable weapon.

The Mossad’s particular role in this war involved weakening the Islamic Republic’s security structure in hopes of then funneling guns to Kurdish armed groups who would invade the country from Iraq, and then fuel mass demonstrations to topple the state. All of these lofty ambitions completely detonated on impact with reality, with Iran’s security structure remaining intact despite assassinations and airstrikes, Kurdish factions instead suffering constant Iranian military attacks, and no major protests occurring in any Iranian city, despite the massive anti-government protests in January that swept through the country.

For those who witnessed the Mossad’s public campaigns to encourage protests and defections — which it deployed in the open through Farsi-language social media accounts on X and Telegram bearing their name and seal — signs of the inevitable failure of this campaign were becoming evident. While images from June 2025’s Twelve-Day War of Mossad agents operating inside Iran and sabotaging Iranian military operations shocked many inside the country — that sabotage hampering Iran’s initial military response — its ability to change fundamental facts on the ground, and to move an entire country’s population against the sitting government, sputtered.

Most Read ICE Shot a Journalist and Threw Him in Detention. He’s Approaching 300 Days Behind Bars With a Festering Wound. Adam Rose Secret ICE Agent Tried to “Entice” Minneapolis Activists Into Confrontational Tactics Matt Sledge A Democratic Socialist Aims to Oust a Top AIPAC Beneficiary in Florida Matt Sledge

The Mossad chose to shift its image as that war began, capitalizing on its perception as an all-powerful and omniscient force to offer its supposedly unlimited power to help the Iranian populace. This shift manifested through cryptic social media posts, sarcastic quote-tweets of Iranian officials, and offering gifts to those who answered questions by direct message. The Mossad offered remote medical services through WhatsApp , and former radio host Menashe Amir, who notably hosted an Israeli radio show in Farsi aimed at anti-Islamic Republic Iranians, made videos on the Mossad’s behalf encouraging Iranians to listen to what the intelligence agency had to say.

The effort produced little. Iranian officials openly mocked the campaign online from the start, and it became increasingly desperate as mass protests failed to materialize. AI-generated videos of Iranian prisons having their walls blown open, and of happy Iranians following their defections to Israel, did next to nothing. The Mossad has continued to post AI-generated videos using Grok to encourage collaboration following the ceasefire.

While accusations were levied (and arrests made) of supposed Mossad agents inside the Iranian protests in January , their infiltration, alleged or otherwise, did not end up toppling or even shattering the Islamic Republic. Instead, more than 7,000 protesters were killed that month, in addition to hundreds of police officers.

After the plan to arm Kurdish groups, in collaboration with the CIA, apparently fell apart — either by Trump’s veto or, as Trump claimed, because the Kurds simply kept the weapons themselves — the Mossad apparently came up with a quick Plan B . The new bright idea: Overthrow the government via an airstrike campaign against Iranian police stations and checkpoints manned by the Basij, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ paramilitary militia component. Despite extensive strikes in broad daylight, with some Iranians tipping off locations to opposition media outlets to help facilitate this campaign, the mass uprising, once again, did not arrive.

The war did not continue long enough for a comprehensive Plan C to come to fruition on the ground, with the Israeli military beginning to strike railways and manufacturing infrastructure, and Trump taking the lead on calling for the destruction of Iran’s energy infrastructure and bridges. Both are unified in their hope to strangle the country economically in hopes of pushing Iranian society into oblivion, but this outcome is only truly possible through American military means.

But even the U.S. has seen itself overextended , unable to resupply its missile interceptors for its own bases in the Middle East, and potentially unable to protect Israel as effectively as it had in the past should open conflict break out over its skies again.

News of the dismissal of the Mossad officials was met with disbelief in the Israeli media and by veterans of the intelligence service, who accused Gofman of suppressing the agency’s ability to function. By firing two deputies, security analysts accused him of foisting the agency’s failure onto underlings to shield the decisions made at the top levels of government from scrutiny.

While overthrowing the Iranian government has remained a popular idea among Israeli officials and other elected politicians, Netanyahu chief among them, other politicians have acknowledged its difficulty. Gadi Eisenkot, the former Israel Defense Forces chief of the general staff, has spoken of the unlikelihood of being able to overthrow the entire Iranian system, instead stating that operations should have continued “in the shadows.”

Reporting from Israel Hayom in May revealed that many in the Mossad were opposed to the idea of focusing resources on overthrowing the Iranian government, seeing it as a massive gamble. The Mossad’s former chief of influence operations, known as O., told the newspaper that he felt he had to sell the operation to many in the agency, despite the fact that “no one actually knows how to overthrow a regime or what the chances are that it will succeed.”

In March, just days before he would be killed in an Israeli assassination strike, Ali Larijani, then-secretary of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, told the Iranian news outlet ISNA that Netanyahu “seemed to believe that these attacks had set a movement in motion inside Iran and that, by portraying the system as being in disarray, he could incite the public.” But Larijani pointed out that in less than a day, the regime had appointed “replacements for the commanders who had been killed, addressed the public, changed the atmosphere, and, by issuing specific orders, authorized the launch of missiles.”

Netanyahu, having pushed for the military overthrow of the Iranian government across multiple American administrations , finally got the war he wanted. But neither raw force, nor covert operations executed on his orders, were enough to carry out his will.

While Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has remarked upon how the current situation is very much working for Israel — one in which southern Iran is constantly bombarded with no end, and America is doing all of the fighting and dying — Netanyahu has continued his rhetoric about the need to create the conditions for the fall of the Islamic Republic. But in a moment of rare humility, he admitted this may “not happen in a single day.”

Recent reporting from Ynet found Netanyahu’s government instructed both the Israeli military and the Mossad to prepare for a much larger campaign against the Iranian state, with eyes on a potential return to open war in autumn. As has been the case over and over again, in Yemen, Lebanon, Gaza, and now Iran, Israel hopes that what was not solved with bombs can still be won — this time with even more bombs.

IT’S EVEN WORSE THAN WE THOUGHT.

What we’re seeing right now from Donald Trump is a full-on authoritarian takeover of the U.S. government.

Court orders are being ignored. MAGA loyalists have been put in charge of the military and federal law enforcement agencies. The Department of Government Efficiency has stripped Congress of its power of the purse. News outlets that challenge Trump have been banished or put under investigation.

Yet far too many are still covering Trump’s assault on democracy like politics as usual, with flattering headlines describing Trump as “unconventional,” “testing the boundaries,” and “aggressively flexing power.”

The Intercept has long covered authoritarian governments, billionaire oligarchs, and backsliding democracies around the world. We understand the challenge we face in Trump and the vital importance of press freedom in defending democracy.

We’re independent of corporate interests. Will you help us?

IT’S BEEN A DEVASTATING year for journalism — the worst in modern U.S. history.

We have a president with utter contempt for truth aggressively using the government’s full powers to dismantle the free press. Corporate news outlets have cowered, becoming accessories in Trump’s project to create a post-truth America. Right-wing billionaires have pounced, buying up media organizations and rebuilding the information environment to their liking.

In this most perilous moment for democracy, The Intercept is fighting back. But to do so effectively, we need to grow.

Source: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMidkFVX3lxTE93OUdUNkJzY3pSa3NqdkVMckVIVmtNVUJNMjZKZDNSNHIwYTFETGJPaXhEaExhY25YVnVwcDBXZUpwNmVTT2k2bE1FQXR3NlNWS1ZBLTBFaFhIdWx1VlF3TjVaTUZDeHh3UGdKenZxOV9iaTV3WEE?oc=5