핵심요약

• 동맹국들은 이란의 드론 공격을 회피하기 위해 군사 호위 하에 AIS를 끈 야간 항해 전략을 사용했습니다.
• 이 전략은 보험 위험과 물리적 위험을 상업 운송업체에서 미국 정부 및 석유 생산국으로 전환시키는 결과를 낳았습니다.
• 호르무즈 해협을 통한 석유 통행량은 하루 평균 8백만에서 9백만 배럴로 추정되며, 이는 시장 분석이 제시하는 수치보다 두 배에 달합니다.
• 이 움직임은 에너지 수송의 안전성과 효율성을 확보하려는 지정학적 목표를 반영합니다.

도입

본 기사는 중동 동맹국들이 호르무즈 해협을 통과하는 석유 운송에 있어 새로운 지정학적 전략을 채택했음을 보여줍니다. 이는 단순한 물류 이동을 넘어, 물리적 위험을 관리하고 에너지 수송의 안정성을 확보하려는 다자간 협력의 결과입니다. 투자자들은 이러한 움직임이 글로벌 에너지 공급망의 구조적 변화와 향후 유가 및 보험 시장에 미칠 영향을 면밀히 분석해야 합니다.

본문 1: 지정학적 위험 회피와 위험 전가

동맹국들이 채택한 핵심 전략은 물리적 위험을 회피하고 책임을 분산시키는 데 중점을 둡니다. 기사에 따르면, 미국 해군과 사우디, 쿠웨이트, 카타르, 아랍에미리트의 석유 회사들은 선박의 AIS 신호를 끄고 군사 호위를 받으며 해협을 통과하는 방법을 이용했습니다. 이는 이란의 드론 공격과 같은 직접적인 물리적 위협으로부터 상업 선박을 보호하는 데 목적이 있습니다. 이로써 운송 과정에서 발생하는 보험 위험과 물리적 위험이 상업 운송업체에서 미국 정부와 석유 생산국으로 효과적으로 전가되었습니다. 이는 에너지 운송의 안정성을 확보하기 위한 새로운 협력 모델을 제시하며, 지정학적 불안정성이 물류 비용과 위험 부담에 어떻게 반영되는지를 보여줍니다.

본문 2: 물류 효율성 증대와 시장 데이터의 괴리

이러한 새로운 운송 방식은 단순히 위험 회피를 넘어 물류의 효율성을 극대화하는 측면도 가집니다. AIS 신호를 끄는 것은 추적을 어렵게 하여 보안을 강화하는 동시에, 동맹국들이 통제하는 경로를 통해 석유를 신속하게 이동시킬 수 있게 합니다. 특히, 이 통행량은 하루 평균 8백만에서 9백만 배럴에 달하며, 이는 기존의 시장 분석가들과 Kpler와 같은 추적 서비스가 제시하는 수치보다 약 두 배에 달하는 규모입니다. 이는 실제 해협을 통과하는 석유의 양이 시장에서 알려진 정보보다 훨씬 크다는 것을 의미하며, 실제 에너지 흐름의 규모가 데이터상에서 과소평가되었을 가능성을 시사합니다. 이러한 비공식적이고 통제된 경로의 활용은 에너지 시장의 투명성과 실시간 데이터의 중요성을 재조명합니다.

본문 3: 장기적 전망과 에너지 안보의 재정의

이러한 전략은 단기적인 운송 효율성을 넘어 장기적인 에너지 안보의 패러다임을 변화시킬 잠재력을 가지고 있습니다. 향후 에너지 공급망은 지정학적 위험에 더 민감하게 반응하며, 단순한 물류 비용뿐만 아니라 군사적 보호와 보험 메커니즘이 통합된 새로운 형태의 위험 관리 시스템을 요구하게 될 것입니다. 동맹국들이 주도하는 이러한 비공식적 통로의 활용은 에너지 자원의 안정적인 흐름을 보장하려는 국제적 노력을 반영합니다. 따라서 향후 에너지 시장에서는 물리적 위험 회피와 공급 안정성을 동시에 고려하는 통합적 접근 방식이 중요해질 것입니다. 이는 에너지 자원의 흐름이 지정학적 역학 관계에 의해 더욱 강력하게 결정됨을 의미합니다.

결론

결론적으로, 중동 동맹국들의 새로운 석유 운송 전략은 지정학적 위험을 관리하고 물류 효율성을 동시에 달성하려는 다자간 협력의 성공적인 사례입니다. 향후 에너지 시장은 이러한 비공식적이고 보안이 강화된 수송 경로의 활용에 대한 이해를 바탕으로 변화할 것입니다. 투자자들은 이러한 지정학적 요인이 에너지 가격 변동성과 보험 시장의 구조에 미치는 영향을 지속적으로 모니터링해야 할 것입니다. 특히, 동맹국 간의 협력 체계와 국제 해운 규제의 변화에 주목할 필요가 있습니다.

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원문 링크: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMic0FVX3lxTE9YTC0xeHFnRksyMW1Za2NzTTNEdGNRTkpfRXIxNkppdklHTEpDUUd2QXdZd3EzbXB3SVpuVkFsVkUwNHMweVNnNkYwVHZfM3pyM3BnLXp2eTRjeFFPbXVTTmxjY0ZqdlgwSWRlUm9taTdoUFU?oc=5

How the US and Middle East allies flipped the oil script on Iran - CNN

On the afternoon of July 25, the Greek-owned supertanker Kiku docked at Qatar’s Mesaieed oil export terminal, a massive, 30-berth port on the country’s west coast, 25 miles south of Doha. Four days later, loaded with crude oil, the Kiku passed through the Strait of Hormuz. The Very Large Crude Carrier – the largest oil tanker class, stretching over 1,000 feet – maintained a steady pace of 13 knots across the Persian Gulf, near its top speed. Then, on July 31, shortly after 2 pm just off the coast of Dubai, the Kiku vanished. The vessel had switched off its AIS transponder, a marine radio device that broadcasts a ship’s identity, speed, course and position. To tracking services that monitor worldwide maritime traffic, it was as if the Kiku simply disappeared. Suddenly, at 10 am on August 1, the Kiku’s signal reappeared – on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz. It was part of the oil industry’s latest tactic – “dark,” US-military-escorted nighttime transits across the strait. The aim: Avoid Iranian drone attacks – like the one that struck the Kiku a month earlier, but failed to explode. Aided by the US Navy, Saudi, Kuwaiti, Qatari and Emirati oil companies have chartered oil tankers to turn their transponders off and shuttle oil out of the Persian Gulf, through the Strait of Hormuz, to the Gulf of Oman, where they offload their crude to waiting tankers owned by their customers and then head back through the strait. That has taken the costly burden of insurance risk and physical danger of Iranian attacks away from commercial shippers and placed it on the US government and the oil producers themselves. It has become an effective strategy, according to the US Department of Energy, which says oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has averaged between 8 million and 9 million barrels per day. That’s a meaningful amount of crude – roughly double what Wall Street oil analysts and shipping trackers like Kpler, using transponder data, would suggest. The clandestine transits have changed the game for the Middle Eastern oil industry. CNN has observed more than a dozen ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman over two days, with tankers moving on to destinations such as China, Taiwan, South Korea, the Philippines, Vietnam and Thailand. It’s a dangerous and expensive gambit that offers some temporary relief to the oil market. But with permanent solutions – a negotiated end to the war and lasting plan for the strait – remaining elusive, this workaround buys time. Dark transits The increase in dark transits like the Kiku’s recent journey comes at a crucial time for the energy market. The war, lasting far longer than many had imagined, has disrupted a fifth of the world’s oil supply for six months but reached an inflection point in recent weeks: Billions of oil and fuel barrels in commercial stockpiles have vanished. US emergency reserves haven’t been this small since the early 1980s. China’s reliance on its massive oil inventory – a key factor in preventing $150 oil – won’t last forever. And bond market investors and voters are running out of patience with high prices. Facing a nightmare scenario, Middle Eastern oil producers starting using their new strategy over the past several weeks. It’s not a perfect solution – the strait is famously narrow, just 23 miles wide. There aren’t many places to hide, and radar can still spot a ship even with its transponder off. Two ships belonging to the UAE were attacked this week. But about 80% of traffic through the strait over the past two weeks has been “dark,” transiting around the coast of Oman, as far from Iran as possible, according to Kpler. Because of the regional conflict, some tracking data has been subject to GPS jamming, which can make it difficult to make assessments. Like many ships using this new tactic, the Kiku reappeared a day after its transponder turned off while anchored near the Emirati port city of Fujairah. After its transponder started pinging again, the Kiku anchored alongside another Greek supertanker, the Nave Electron, which had arrived in the Gulf of Oman a day earlier. The two ships stayed together for a week in a ship-to-ship oil transfer. When they finally separated on August 8, the Nave Electron exited the Gulf, loaded with oil, headed toward the Arabian sea on route to Ningbo, China. The Kiku stayed put off the coast of Fujairah until around August 14, when it went dark once again. The next day, just before 4 pm, its signal reemerged in the Persian Gulf, heading back toward Qatar. Flipping the script The escorted dark transits are the latest example of Middle Eastern oil producers increasing the amount of oil that they can export to customers around the world, flipping the script on Iran. Most notably, Saudi Arabia has rerouted about 5 million barrels of oil per day that would have been destined for awaiting oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. Instead, that oil has traveled through its East-West pipeline to its port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. Middle Eastern oil producers have rerouted another 2 million barrels per day around the Strait of Hormuz. Production has ramped up around the world to compensate, too. Brazil, Guyana and Venezuela have combined to add more than 1 million barrels per day of extra production. The United States has added hundreds of thousands more barrels daily to the market. And far less coordinated (or militarily protected) dark transits have been taking place for months. On the other side of the equation, the United States has released 400 million barrels of emergency oil, vastly drawing down its stockpiles in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. China, too, has relied heavily on its own massive oil stockpiles, while simultaneously drastically reducing its crude imports. Global demand has also shrunk significantly with rising prices, helping to balance the oil market and get oil to the customers who need it. The market keeps finding a way. It has proven far more complex and significantly more flexible than even the most knowledgeable experts anticipated when the war started. A temporary solution Radar and satellite imagery of the Strait of Hormuz paints a picture transponder data can’t see. For example, in August 14 satellite photos, rows of dots appear arcing around the coast of Oman through the strait of Hormuz. But those dots don’t align with ship-tracking data from the same day and time. The “dots” went dark. On August 7, two Greek-owned tankers appeared next to one another in the Gulf of Oman on transponder data. Satellite images show the Nissos Kythnos, a shuttle tanker that had made a dark strait run, lined up next to the Front Otra. On August 14, the Front Otra was detected in the Arabian Sea on route to Taiwan. The Nissos Kythios was back in the Persian Gulf. But it can’t last this way forever. Oil inventories have been depleted by as much as 1.9 billion barrels during the course of the war. If the market reaches equilibrium, those will need to be filled to prevent the next crisis. If it doesn’t, those stockpiles will eventually be drained so low that they can no longer be relied on to meet the world’s oil demand, reaching a tipping point where the only solution is to raise oil prices significantly to choke off even more demand. A similar problem has already emerged in the fuel market: Three of the world’s four refining hubs are in severe distress. The Iran war has damaged refineries in the Middle East and slowed the export of fuel out of that region. Russia, another major source of fuel, has been knocked offline by another war, the conflict with Ukraine. Refineries in Russia have been targeted by Ukrainian drones and Moscow, facing a fuel shortage at home, has cut off its exports. China, seeking to avoid fuel shortages of its own, is limiting its own refined fuel exports. That’s critical because China is normally a major fuel exporter. That leaves US refineries along the Gulf Coast shouldering the burden of global demand. But US refineries can’t run all-out forever. Gas, and especially diesel and jet fuel, are in such high demand with such little refining capacity to make it, that prices have soared – well beyond what crude oil prices would suggest they should be. President Donald Trump had successfully jawboned oil prices lower for months by promising a looming breakthrough in negotiations. His plan has recently changed, though: America’s new strategy is to strangle Iran, unleashing a “crushing economic operation” by means of a prolonged naval blockade of Iran’s ports. That has sent oil prices creeping higher for weeks, edging closer to $100 a barrel. With the two countries locked in an intractable quagmire of a war, the battle over control of the strait has kept oil – especially gas, diesel and jet fuel – at uncomfortably high prices for consumers, boosting inflation and shrinking their disposable income. But the market’s impressive ability to at least partially work its way around the conflict has also prevented prices from surging as astronomically high as the world’s largest-ever oil supply shock would suggest. CNN’s Sarah El Sirgany and Farida Elsebai contributed to this report.

Source: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMic0FVX3lxTE9YTC0xeHFnRksyMW1Za2NzTTNEdGNRTkpfRXIxNkppdklHTEpDUUd2QXdZd3EzbXB3SVpuVkFsVkUwNHMweVNnNkYwVHZfM3pyM3BnLXp2eTRjeFFPbXVTTmxjY0ZqdlgwSWRlUm9taTdoUFU?oc=5