핵심요약

• 2026년 미국 상품 수입의 54%가 새로운 관세에 영향을 받습니다.
• 2026년 예상 수입 기반은 섹션 232 철강, 알루미늄, 구리 분야에서 $3800억 달러에 달합니다.
• 자동차 및 중장비 부문은 25%의 관세가 적용되며, 예상 수입 규모는 $4070억 달러입니다.
• 특허 약물 부문은 $970억 달러 규모의 수입에 관세 정책이 적용될 수 있습니다.

도입

본 기사는 트럼프 관세 정책과 무역 전쟁이 미국 상품 수입에 미치는 영향을 추적하는 데이터 분석 결과를 제시합니다. 이는 글로벌 공급망의 불확실성이 어떻게 구체적인 경제 지표와 수입 비용에 반영되는지를 이해하는 데 중요합니다. 투자자들은 이러한 관세 변동성이 특정 산업의 생산 비용과 최종 소비자 가격에 미치는 파급 효과를 분석하여 리스크를 평가해야 합니다.

본문 1: 관세 정책의 범위와 재정적 부담

Tax Foundation의 데이터 추적기는 2026년 관세가 미국 상품 수입의 54%에 영향을 미칠 것으로 추정합니다. 이는 단순한 무역 분쟁을 넘어, 특정 산업에 대한 직접적인 재정적 부담을 의미합니다. 예를 들어, 섹션 232에 따른 철강, 알루미늄, 구리 부문은 2026년 예상 수입 규모가 $3800억 달러에 달하며, 이는 관세 부과 시 막대한 비용 증가로 이어집니다. 또한, 자동차 및 중장비 부문에 적용되는 관세는 25%에 달하며, 예상 수입 규모는 $4070억 달러에 이릅니다. 이러한 수치는 관세가 글로벌 공급망 내에서 물류 비용과 생산 원가를 어떻게 직접적으로 증가시키는지 명확히 보여줍니다.

본문 2: 정책 변동성과 공급망 재편의 위험

관세 정책이 2025년 1월 이후 50회 이상 변화했다는 사실은 정책의 예측 불가능성이 높다는 것을 시사합니다. 이러한 높은 정책 변동성은 기업들이 장기적인 투자 계획을 수립하는 데 심각한 제약을 가합니다. 특히, 특정 관세가 2026년 9월 2일 또는 2027년 2월 9일과 같이 특정 시점에 발효되도록 조정되는 것은 공급망의 유연성을 저해하고 재고 관리에 불확실성을 더합니다. 기업들은 이러한 변동성에 대응하기 위해 생산 기지를 재편하거나 관세 회피 전략을 모색해야 하는 압력을 받게 됩니다. 이는 단기적인 무역 분쟁을 넘어 장기적인 글로벌 생산 구조의 변화를 촉발할 수 있습니다.

본문 3: 특정 산업별 영향과 장기 전망

특정 산업 분야에서 관세의 영향은 매우 이질적입니다. 예를 들어, 특허 약물 부문은 $970억 달러 규모의 수입에 관세가 적용될 수 있으며, 이는 제약 산업의 글로벌 공급망에 영향을 미칩니다. 또한, 반도체 관련 부품인 폴리실리콘에 대해서는 15% 또는 10%의 관세가 적용될 수 있으며, 이는 첨단 기술 산업의 비용 구조를 변화시킵니다. 이러한 개별 부문의 영향은 관세의 총합뿐만 아니라, 해당 산업의 기술 수준과 시장 집중도에 따라 다르게 해석되어야 합니다. 장기적으로는 무역 협정의 재편과 기술 자립(onshoring) 움직임이 관세의 영향력을 완화하거나 새로운 무역 블록을 형성할 가능성이 있습니다.

결론

관세 정책의 추적 데이터는 무역 환경의 높은 변동성과 그로 인한 경제적 불확실성을 명확히 보여줍니다. 투자자들은 특정 관세의 발효 시점과 적용 범위를 면밀히 모니터링하여 공급망 리스크를 평가해야 합니다. 향후 글로벌 무역 환경은 지정학적 요인과 기술 패권 경쟁에 의해 더욱 복잡해질 것이므로, 이러한 정책적 변화에 대한 민감도를 지속적으로 관리하는 것이 중요합니다. 향후 관세 환경의 변화에 따라 산업별 투자 전략을 유연하게 조정할 필요가 있습니다.

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원문 링크: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie0FVX3lxTE5LU1daamtmcnNXWEZENFBwb3BYMThMQ1M4bHFPSzVZX0s5QmlLYWM4dDdKUGNiOF9iNjcxZ2VZTXd0bVJ6NGNNcDZVVmlkc25rTmxLd3Q4RVJhQmM3dUhpR3h1aXhXNGs3UkNQN0ZKLUpSSnBnOWVaX0tTRQ?oc=5

Tracking the Impact of the Trump Tariffs & Trade War - Tax Foundation

By Erica York and Alex Durante

Tax Foundation’s Tariff Tracker analyzes how changes in US tariff policy affect the following outcomes:

Current Tariff Policy at a Glance

US tariff policy has changed more than 50 times since January 2025. Table 1 shows the tariffs struck down, expired, currently in effect, or scheduled to take effect, along with the relevant rates, beginning dates, and Tax Foundation’s estimate of the annualized tariff base in 2026 before behavioral changes. We estimate new tariffs affect 54 percent of US goods imports in 2026.

Table 1. New US Tariffs at a Glance Authority Rate(s) Estimated Annual Imports Affected Before Behavioral Changes (2026) Dates Section 232 Steel, Aluminum, Copper 50%, lower rates for derivatives and certain trade deal partners $380 billion March 12, 2025 Section 232 Auto, Heavy Trucks, Buses, and Parts 25% on autos and heavy trucks, 10% on buses, lower rates for certain trade deal partners $407 billion April 3, 2025, for autos; May 3, 2025, for auto parts; November 1, 2025, for heavy trucks and buses Section 232 Furniture and Lumber 25% furniture, 10% lumber, lower rates for certain trade deal partners $19 billion October 14, 2025 Section 232 Pharmaceuticals 100% on patented drugs, 15% or 10% for certain trade deal partners, or lower rates for certain companies with onshoring or pricing agreements $97 billion July 31, 2026 Section 232 Polysilicon 15%, or 10% for the UK. Additional minimum import prices not modeled. $12 billion December 4, 2026 Section 232 Unmanned Aircraft Systems 100% on drones of certain size and capability, 25% on smaller drones without thermal imaging capability, lower rates for certain trade deal partners $27 billion Most effective September 2, 2026; some delayed until February 9, 2027 Section 201 Quartz Surface Products 25% in year 1, 23% in year 2, 21% in year 3, 19% in year 4; additional over-quota rates not modeled $1.8 billion August 15, 2026, through August 2029 Section 301 Brazil 25% $16.2 billion July 22, 2026 Section 301 Forced Labor 10% or 12.5% $964 billion July 24, 2026 Section 338 Canada 50% $16.1 billion Delayed to August 22, 2026 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), Struck Down Ranged from 10% to 50% on nearly all US trading partners $1.2 trillion Struck down by the Supreme Court on February 20, 2026, in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump Section 122, Expired 10% on nearly all US trading partners $1 trillion In effect February 24, 2026, through July 24, 2026 Note: Italicized tariffs are no longer in effect. Source: Tax Foundation research and estimates.

Table 1. New US Tariffs at a Glance

We measure the tariff burden using two distinct rate measures:

Table 2. Applied and Effective Tariff Rates

According to the World Bank, the US’s weighted average applied tariff was 1.5 percent in 2022. We estimate that under the new US tariffs imposed and scheduled to take effect in 2026, the applied rate rises to 11.7 percent. In the days prior to the Supreme Court’s Learning Resources decision, we estimate the applied tariff rate was 14.9 percent, and that it fell to 10.8 percent under the temporary Section 122 replacement tariffs. The applied tariff rate under the current tariffs is below its peak reached prior to the Court decision.

In 2024, the actual effective tariff rate on US goods imports was 2.4 percent, the result of the US collecting $78.9 billion of customs duties and importing $3.3 trillion of goods.

In 2025, the actual effective tariff rate climbed to 7.7 percent, the highest rate since 1947, as customs duties collections rose to $264 billion while goods imports totaled $3.4 trillion. Notably, many of the duties collected in 2025 must be refunded after they were struck down by the Supreme Court.

In 2026, excluding the impact of refunds for the illegally collected tariffs, we estimate the effective tariff rate will be 7.2 percent.

One of President Trump’s stated goals of imposing tariffs is to shrink the US trade deficit. However, a country’s balance of trade is not solely driven by trade policy, but instead reflects broader macroeconomic balances between saving and investment and net lending and borrowing with the rest of the world.

In the United States, domestic investment outpaces domestic saving, requiring a capital inflow from the rest of the world to close the gap. The capital inflow represents net lending to the United States from the rest of the world to finance business investment as well as the government’s budget deficit. Because tariffs do not directly change the balance between domestic saving and investment, tariffs cannot permanently change the trade balance.

The last time the US ran a trade surplus was in 1975; every year since, the US has run a trade deficit. That the US has consistently run trade deficits for decades is not an imminent economic problem. Net imports, another term for a trade deficit, can reflect the strength of the US economy in attracting foreign investment and in serving as a safe, reliable haven for foreign capital. When net imports finance the capital stock, it allows the US to enjoy a higher level of productivity and growth than otherwise would occur.

In 2025, the trade deficit fell by just $2.1 billion compared to 2024. The reduction in the trade deficit was due to an increase in the trade surplus of services, as the goods deficit actually increased by $25.5 billion year over year.

Actual Customs Duties Revenue Collections

In calendar year 2024, the US federal government collected $79 billion in customs duties. Collections rose to $264 billion in calendar year 2025 after the Trump administration imposed several rounds of new tariffs. In February 2026, however, the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs, and the illegally collected revenues (plus interest) were required to be returned to importers. Refunds of the illegally collected duties accelerated in May 2026, offsetting customs duties revenue collections such that the government refunded more than it brought in.

Long-Run Macroeconomic Estimates

We estimate that the tariffs will reduce long-run GDP by imposing a wedge between the price a consumer pays and the price a producer receives, which ultimately reduces returns to labor. Lower returns to labor lead to fewer hours worked and lower total output. When output falls, the return to capital falls, reducing investment.

We simulate the long-run effects of the permanent tariffs: Section 232, Section 301, and Section 338. While temporary tariffs are in effect, they will create a drag on economic growth, but we do not capture temporary impacts here.

Altogether, we estimate the imposed and scheduled tariffs will reduce long-run GDP in the US by 0.4 percent, the capital stock by 0.3 percent, and hours worked by 345,000 full-time equivalent jobs.

Table 3. Long-Run Macroeconomic Effects

Tax Foundation’s conventional tariff revenue estimates incorporate behavioral responses for how imports will fall in response to tariffs, how higher tariff payments mechanically reduce the bases of the income and payroll taxes, and how tariffs, like any other type of tax, are subject to avoidance and evasion.

We estimate the tariffs will generate $110 billion in tax revenue in 2026 and $1.5 trillion over the 10-year budget window covering 2026 through 2035, before accounting for how they negatively affect the US economy. The negative economic impact of the tariffs lowers the 10-year revenue score by $389 billion to $1.1 trillion.

While the temporary Section 122 tariffs were in effect from February 24, 2026, through July 24, 2026, we estimate they raised $21 billion in conventional revenue for the federal government.

As a share of GDP, we estimate the new tariffs will increase tax revenues by 0.36 percent in 2026, placing the tariffs within the top 20 largest tax hikes as a share of GDP since 1940.

Table 4. Total Tariff Revenue Estimates

Table 5. Detailed Tariff Revenue Estimates

US Taxpayer and Household Burdens

Source: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMie0FVX3lxTE5LU1daamtmcnNXWEZENFBwb3BYMThMQ1M4bHFPSzVZX0s5QmlLYWM4dDdKUGNiOF9iNjcxZ2VZTXd0bVJ6NGNNcDZVVmlkc25rTmxLd3Q4RVJhQmM3dUhpR3h1aXhXNGs3UkNQN0ZKLUpSSnBnOWVaX0tTRQ?oc=5