핵심요약

• 이란 최고 안보 기관 수장은 새로운 미국의 경제 조치에 대한 지지를 '전쟁 행위(act of war)'로 규정하며 보복을 경고했습니다.
• 이란 대통령은 협상 중단 상태를 벗어날 수 있는 방법으로 양해각서(memorandum of understanding)를 옹호했습니다.
• 미국은 대상 국가에 대해 '전례 없는(unprecedented)' 수준의 경제 전쟁과 고립을 부과할 것을 위협했습니다.
• 이란의 군 지도자는 페르시아만 항로를 대체하는 다른 석유 운송 경로를 겨냥하는 보복을 언급했습니다.

도입

본 기사는 미국의 경제 제재와 이란의 군사적/외교적 대응이 어떻게 지정학적 위험을 증폭시키는지에 초점을 맞춥니다. 특히 이란이 제재에 대해 취하는 강경한 입장과 양해각서 협상이라는 이중 전략이 국제 에너지 시장과 중동 지역의 안정성에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 것이 중요합니다.

본문 1: 경제 제재와 군사적 보복의 연계성

이란의 최고 안보 회의 책임자 모흐센 레자에이는 미국의 새로운 경제 조치에 대한 지지를 '전쟁 행위'로 간주한다는 경고를 통해, 경제적 압박이 군사적 대응으로 이어질 수 있다는 점을 명확히 했습니다. 이는 단순한 경제적 압박을 넘어선 안보 문제로 인식되고 있음을 의미합니다. 특히 레자에이가 페르시아만 항로를 대체하는 다른 석유 운송 경로를 겨냥하는 보복을 언급한 것은, 경제적 제재가 실질적인 군사적 위협으로 해석되고 있음을 시사합니다. 미국이 '전례 없는' 경제 전쟁을 예고하면서, 이란은 자국의 에너지 안보를 지키기 위해 군사적 레버리지를 활용할 가능성이 높아집니다. 이는 제재의 효과를 극대화하고 협상력을 높이려는 전략적 움직임으로 읽힙니다.

본문 2: 외교적 노력과 지정학적 중재의 역할

한편, 이란 대통령 마수드 페제슈키안은 협상 중단 상태에서 벗어날 수 있는 방법으로 양해각서에 서명한 것을 옹호했습니다. 이는 군사적 대립 속에서도 외교적 해법을 모색하려는 이란의 노력을 보여줍니다. 이러한 외교적 노력은 파키스탄 군 총사령관이 중재자로 이란을 방문하는 상황과 맞물려 있습니다. 이는 미국과 이란 간의 대립 구도 속에서 제3국의 개입이 얼마나 중요한 역할을 하는지를 보여줍니다. 중재 노력이 성공한다면, 이는 지역 분쟁을 완화하고 에너지 시장의 변동성을 줄이는 데 긍정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 그러나 중재 과정에서 양측의 이해관계가 충돌할 경우, 오히려 긴장이 더욱 고조될 위험도 내포하고 있습니다.

본문 3: 장기적 위험 및 전망

이러한 상황은 중동 지역의 에너지 공급망에 장기적인 위험을 초래할 수 있습니다. 페르시아만 항로의 안정성은 국제 유가와 글로벌 공급망에 직접적인 영향을 미치므로, 이란의 보복 움직임은 국제 유가 변동성을 확대시킬 수 있습니다. 장기적으로 볼 때, 양측이 경제적 압박과 군사적 위협 사이에서 균형을 찾으려는 시도는 매우 불안정합니다. 향후 상황은 미국과 이란 간의 외교적 채널이 얼마나 효과적으로 작동하느냐, 그리고 중재 노력이 얼마나 성공적으로 이루어지느냐에 달려있습니다. 따라서 지정학적 불확실성이 지속될 경우, 에너지 시장은 높은 변동성을 유지할 가능성이 높습니다.

결론

이란은 미국의 경제 제재에 대해 군사적 보복 가능성을 시사하며 강경한 입장을 유지하고 있습니다. 외교적 해법 모색과 군사적 경고가 동시에 이루어지는 현 상황은 중동 지역의 지정학적 불안정성이 심화될 수 있음을 보여줍니다. 투자자들은 향후 중재 노력의 진전 상황과 에너지 운송로의 안정성에 대한 동향을 면밀히 관찰해야 할 것입니다. 불확실성이 해소될 때까지 시장은 높은 변동성을 보일 가능성이 높습니다.

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원문 링크: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi_gFBVV95cUxORC0zVXRLczhGZDhmblNtdHNTTnRwb0IyUjBDYlo5VmZFamxtSVlYbFI5OXRYT1VmUWJ4NTBuS3E4NVNUYWJDbjB2X3R2R091VnRuX1dnTEhwQV95ZHhJSmpaLUJ5T3IwNWx3Q05NNUFmWUpKVFljel9LSFBzMTBJSFJmRlFudERRT0E2UGJsWGd3aGpzaldmZ3Y0T19KeS1FeXBTWUlQV2hqaGtYWUE1TUtWa28wZXdXMzJpZURsTDZEQ1R0bDhpZVJvTWp6cVhiWWNjR25BNjFDWjVLT2FValVteUxaaF84dmNSenJEQ01RYzNVQWFRTWU1TkpHZw?oc=5

Iran official says support for new sanctions would be an 'act of war,' and other Middle East news - The Journal Gazette

The new head of Iran's top security body warned Sunday that Tehran will see any country's support for new U.S. economic measures against the Islamic Republic as an “act of war,” while Iran's president defended a memorandum of understanding with the United States as the best way out of the stalled conflict .

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to announce the new measures today after the U.S. vowed to impose an “unprecedented” level of economic warfare and isolation on a country that has lived for decades under sanctions . Also today, Pakistan’s army chief is expected to visit Iran as mediators try to revive talks.

Meanwhile, attacks calmed on the Strait of Hormuz but posturing did not, as a recently created Iranian authority listed dozens of vessels it said will face restrictions on future transits.

The hard-line leader of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, issued his latest warning on X, with the comments quickly shared by Iranian state media.

It came a day after Rezaei's most extensive public comments since being named to the post this month.

“If (Trump) wants to do something, we will retaliate in a seismic manner,” he had told the state broadcaster in an interview that aired late Saturday. He said Iran would target other oil-shipping routes from the Persian Gulf — alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz.

Rezaei, a former Revolutionary Guard commander and military adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, was part of senior appointments widely seen as hardening Tehran’s political and military stance.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian earlier Sunday said the memorandum of understanding signed in mid-June was the best way to move beyond a situation of “neither war nor peace," adding that Tehran can’t attract investment nearly six months after the war began.

“There is not a single provision in this agreement that amounts to capitulation,” Pezeshkian said in a speech published by state-run IRNA. “The supreme leader sets the policies, and we will follow that path.”

The interim deal opened a 60-day period for talks aimed at ending the war and reaching an accord on Iran's nuclear program . That period ended last week with no signs of compromise or extension.

There were no confirmed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz over the past 48 hours, a multinational coalition overseen by the U.S. Navy said Sunday, with shipping traffic still at reduced levels. The U.S. military said its blockade of Iranian ports had redirected 70 commercial ships and disabled three as of Sunday.

Iran's recently created Persian Gulf Strait Authority, sanctioned by the U.S ., published a list of dozens of ships it said had violated arrangements for transiting the strait and would face future restrictions like fines or seizures. The strait had been considered an international waterway before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28.

Iran and Oman, on the strait's other side, are now discussing management of it, which likely will include ships paying fees.

Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir will lead a delegation to Tehran on Monday, Iranian state television reported, citing Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei.

Two regional officials said the visit was part of Islamabad’s efforts to de-escalate tensions between the United States and Iran and urge them to return to the negotiating table. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

Iran executes man arrested during January protests

The Iranian judiciary’s Mizan news agency reported the latest execution connected to nationwide protests early this year, saying Majid Adineh was arrested Jan. 9 in Mohammadshahr, west of Tehran.

The judiciary said forensic examinations indicated the handgun found on him had been fired on Jan. 8 and 9. Mizan said Adineh had joined the unrest following calls by groups opposed to Iran’s government and alleged that he had received training from groups outside the country. He was convicted under Iran’s law imposing harsher penalties for espionage and cooperation with hostile states.

Israeli settler arrested in beating of Palestinian amputee

Police arrested a 16-year-old boy from the Israeli settlement of Avigayil in the beating of a 61-year-old Palestinian, Saeed Muhammad Ibrahim Rabah, outside his home in the occupied West Bank, a year after he lost a leg after being shot by a settler.

Rabah told The Associated Press that the violence at his home in Khirbet al-Rakeez on Saturday was an effort to make families leave, but “we will remain, no matter what happens.”

Separately, the West Bank Health Ministry said a 14-year-old in the Askar refugee camp in Nablus was shot dead by Israeli forces, who did not immediately comment. The uncle of Islam Maher Ajouri, Nehad Ajouri, called the shooting indiscriminate.

And Israel's military said it detained a suspect in a stabbing attack that wounded a 24-year-old Israeli man in the area of al-Auja in the West Bank. Israel's emergency services said the man was in moderate condition.

Airstrike in Gaza kills a 4-year-old child

Four-year-old Mohammed Taha died after an Israeli airstrike hit a central Gaza house on Sunday and wounded at least five others, according to the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital, which received the casualties.

Israel's military later said it struck and killed a Hamas commander in central Gaza. The hospital confirmed that the man named, Ismail Abu Ful, was killed.

An Israeli strike in southern Gaza wounded at least seven people, including three children, according to health officials at Nasser Hospital. The military did not immediately comment.

And Defense Minister Israel Katz in a statement said he instructed the military to “act immediately and forcefully” to prevent launches of balloons, kites or drones from Gaza toward nearby Israeli communities.

Before the Oct. 7, 2023, attack by Hamas-led militants on Israel — when 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken hostage — burning kites and balloons were sent from Gaza into southern Israel, causing fires and other damage.

Hamas in a statement Sunday accused Israel of “using children’s toys as a pretext” for attacks and further displacement of Gaza residents.

Source: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMi_gFBVV95cUxORC0zVXRLczhGZDhmblNtdHNTTnRwb0IyUjBDYlo5VmZFamxtSVlYbFI5OXRYT1VmUWJ4NTBuS3E4NVNUYWJDbjB2X3R2R091VnRuX1dnTEhwQV95ZHhJSmpaLUJ5T3IwNWx3Q05NNUFmWUpKVFljel9LSFBzMTBJSFJmRlFudERRT0E2UGJsWGd3aGpzaldmZ3Y0T19KeS1FeXBTWUlQV2hqaGtYWUE1TUtWa28wZXdXMzJpZURsTDZEQ1R0bDhpZVJvTWp6cVhiWWNjR25BNjFDWjVLT2FValVteUxaaF84dmNSenJEQ01RYzNVQWFRTWU1TkpHZw?oc=5