핵심요약

• 6월 코어 PCE는 연간 3.3%로 추정되었으며, 일시적 요인을 제외하면 근원 인플레이션은 2.5% 수준으로 유지됩니다.
• 지난 5월 소비자물가지수(CPI)는 4.2%로 3년 만의 가장 큰 상승률을 기록했습니다.
• 인플레이션과 고용 시장의 안정성은 보다 긴축적인 통화 정책을 요구하는 핵심 근거입니다.
• 인플레이션 우려 속에서 투자자들은 채권을 매도하며 미국 국채 수익률이 상승하는 추세입니다.

도입

본 기사는 최근의 경제 지표와 지정학적 상황 속에서 연방준비제도(Fed)가 통화 정책을 어떻게 결정해야 하는지에 대한 뱅크오브아메리카의 분석을 제시합니다. 투자자들은 인플레이션 압력과 금리 정책의 연관성을 이해하고, 향후 통화 환경 변화에 대비해야 합니다.

본문 1: 인플레이션 지표와 통화 정책의 논리

뱅크오브아메리카는 현재의 인플레이션 수준이 연준의 목표치보다 높다고 보고 금리 인상을 재개해야 한다고 주장합니다. 이 주장의 핵심 근거는 6월 코어 PCE가 연간 3.3%로 추정되었으나, 일시적인 요인을 제외하면 근원 인플레이션은 2.5% 수준으로 변동이 거의 없다는 점입니다. 이는 인플레이션이 여전히 높은 수준에 머물고 있음을 의미합니다. 따라서 뱅크오브아메리카는 지속적으로 높은 근원 인플레이션과 안정적인 노동 시장 상황을 고려할 때, 연준이 긴축적인 통화 정책을 유지해야 한다고 판단합니다. 이는 현재의 물가 압력을 관리하고 통화 정책의 목표를 달성하기 위한 필수적인 조치로 읽힙니다.

본문 2: 외부 충격과 인플레이션의 변동성

물가 상승 압력은 단순히 국내 요인에만 기인하지 않고 외부 충격에 의해 크게 영향을 받습니다. 예를 들어, 5월에 경험했던 에너지 충격은 소비자물가지수(CPI)를 4.2%로 상승시키는 데 기여했으며, 이는 3년 만의 가장 큰 증가율이었습니다. 이러한 외부 요인들, 특히 지정학적 불안정성은 인플레이션의 변동성을 높이는 주요 원인이 됩니다. 에너지 가격의 변동성과 국제 분쟁 상황은 소비자 물가에 직접적인 영향을 미치므로, 통화 당국은 이러한 외부 변수를 고려하여 금리 결정을 해야 합니다. 이는 국내 경제 지표만으로 인플레이션을 판단할 수 없으며, 글로벌 환경을 함께 분석해야 함을 시사합니다.

본문 3: 시장 반응과 장기적 전망

인플레이션에 대한 우려는 채권 시장에 즉각적인 영향을 미칩니다. 투자자들은 인플레이션과 미국 부채에 대한 우려로 인해 채권을 매도하는 움직임을 보였고, 이는 미국 국채 수익률을 상승시키는 결과를 가져왔습니다. 이러한 채권 시장의 움직임은 통화 정책 결정이 실물 경제와 금융 시장에 미치는 파급 효과를 명확히 보여줍니다. 장기적으로 볼 때, 연준의 금리 결정은 인플레이션 억제와 경제 성장의 균형을 맞추는 데 초점을 맞출 것입니다. 향후 경제 상황과 지정학적 리스크에 대한 지속적인 모니터링이 필요합니다.

결론

결론적으로, 뱅크오브아메리카의 분석은 현재의 인플레이션이 여전히 연준 목표치보다 높다는 점에 중점을 두고 금리 인상의 필요성을 강조합니다. 향후 경제 환경은 외부 지정학적 요인과 국내 물가 지표의 상호작용에 의해 결정될 가능성이 높습니다. 투자자들은 이러한 복합적인 요인들을 종합적으로 고려하여 통화 정책의 방향성과 시장의 변동성을 예측해야 할 것입니다.

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원문 링크: https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/22/bank-of-america-says-the-fed-should-raise-rates-now-4-dividend-inflation-resistant-stocks/?.tsrc=rss

Bank of America Says the Fed Should Raise Rates Now: 4 Dividend Inflation-Resistant Stocks

Everybody across the stock and bond markets breathed a huge sigh of relief when the consumer and producer price index numbers for June were released. The reality is that those great prints were largely due to plummeting gasoline prices, as the U.S. and Iran had temporarily halted hostilities under a signed memorandum of understanding. Now, after a stretch that recently included 10 straight bombing attacks on Iran, and despite the Iranian foreign ministry saying that discussions could continue, it looks like President Trump is prepared to go for the knockout punch. Regardless of the outcome, the Bank of America team argues that inflation is still well above the Federal Reserve’s target and that the right move is to start raising rates soon.

In a recent research report, the Bank of America’s Global Research Bureau of Economic Analysis team said this:

In our latest US economic weekly, we argued that the Federal Reserve should resume raising rates rather than remain on hold. A key pillar of our view is that underlying inflation remains meaningfully above the Fed’s 2% target. To be sure, June core PCE at 3.3% y/y (our estimate) likely overstates underlying inflation because it reflects several temporary or idiosyncratic factors. If we, however, exclude these influences, core PCE would still be 2.5% and little changed from a year ago. In our view, the combination of persistently elevated core inflation and a stable, if not improving, labor market argues for tighter monetary policy rather than an extended pause.

Before the June break in the fighting and the tumbling energy prices, in May, the energy shock we may experience again had driven inflation higher, with the CPI rising 4.2%, the sharpest increase in three years and well above the Fed’s 2% target. That in turn prompted lenders to demand higher rates to protect returns. Meanwhile, investors are selling bonds once again amid rising inflation and concerns about U.S. debt, lifting Treasury yields. Since mortgage rates are based on the 10-year Treasury yield plus a risk premium, they rose in tandem. On the fiscal side, federal interest payments now exceed spending on Medicaid, national defense, and all nondefense discretionary programs combined, adding further upward pressure on long-term borrowing costs. Experts say rates will only fall if geopolitical tensions ease, oil prices stabilize, and inflation remains under control, outcomes that remain uncertain at best.

Typically, when interest rates go higher, these four sectors tend to win:

We screened our 24/7 Wall St. dividend stocks database for quality companies that pay big, dependable dividends and generate reliable passive income . We found four companies, one in each sector, that are solid bets if the upward trend in interest rates remains. All are rated Buy by the top Wall Street firms we cover.

Financials are the biggest winner. Banks earn a wider spread between what they pay depositors and what they charge borrowers. Insurers earn more on their investment portfolios. The sector almost mechanically benefits from rising rates, as net interest income rises.

Based in Minneapolis, super-regional financial giant U.S. Bancorp ( NYSE:USB | USB Price Prediction ) is an outstanding choice for growth and income investors now, offering a hefty 3.29% dividend. The financial services holding company’s segments are:

It offers a comprehensive range of financial services, including lending and deposit services, cash management, capital markets, and trust and investment management services. It also engages in credit card services, merchant and ATM processing, mortgage banking, insurance, brokerage, and leasing.

The company’s banking subsidiary, U.S. Bank National Association (USBNA), is engaged in the banking business, principally in domestic markets. USBNA provides a range of products and services to individuals, businesses, institutional organizations, governmental entities, and other financial institutions.

The non-banking subsidiaries offer investment and insurance products to customers primarily within their domestic markets, as well as fund administration services to a range of mutual and other funds.

Oppenheimer has an Outperform rating with a target price of $77.

Energy benefits because rate hikes typically coincide with inflation, and oil/gas prices are a primary driver of inflation. Higher commodity prices mean higher revenues. It is the inflation hedge play, and it has been the strongest-performing S&P sector so far in 2026.

Enterprise Products Partners ( NYSE:EPD ) is an American midstream natural gas and crude oil pipeline company headquartered in Houston, Texas. This company is one of the most extensive publicly traded energy partnerships, paying a very reliable 5.87% dividend. Its debt-to-EBITDA ratio ranges from 3.1x to 3.4x, which is moderate for a midstream energy company, and its interest coverage ratio is 5x.

The company generates strong free cash flow, with an operating cash flow of approximately $8.8 billion, resulting in approximately $4.2 billion in free cash flow annually after deducting capital expenditures. Another significant benefit for shareholders is that most of the corporate debt is fixed-rate, thereby limiting the risk of rising interest rates.

Its various midstream energy services include:

The company has four reportable business segments:

One reason many analysts like the stock might be its distribution coverage ratio. The company’s coverage ratio is well above 1x, making it relatively less risky among the MLPs.

UBS has a Buy rating with a $45 target price.

Pricing power and steady demand insulate the top healthcare names. They don’t directly benefit from higher rates, but they tend to hold up well because their earnings do not erode as much as those of interest-sensitive sectors.

Bristol Myers Squibb ( NYSE:BMY ) is a global biopharmaceutical company. This remains a solid pharmaceutical stock to own for the long term, offering an outstanding entry point and a reliable 4.12% dividend. The company is committed to discovering, developing, and delivering transformative medicines for patients with serious diseases across oncology, hematology, immunology, cardiovascular disease, neuroscience, and other therapeutic areas.

Its platforms comprise chemically synthesized or small-molecule drugs, including protein degraders, as well as biologics produced through biological processes. These platforms also encompass ADCs, CAR-T cell therapies, and radiopharmaceutical therapeutics.

Small-molecule drugs are typically administered orally in tablet or capsule form, although other drug-delivery mechanisms are also used. Biologics are usually administered by injection or intravenous infusion. CAR-T cell therapies are administered by intravenous infusion.

Its growth portfolio includes:

The legacy portfolio includes:

Source: https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/22/bank-of-america-says-the-fed-should-raise-rates-now-4-dividend-inflation-resistant-stocks/?.tsrc=rss